o/u 0.5 1st inning plays

[TechnicalTrader]

2 for 4 on the day, made $11.70, I'm fine with that:

Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 49-30
Total Profit: 56.26%
Bankroll day 18: $1093.84

Hit rate: 62.02%

[pairadux]

TT,

Thanks for posting these, I've just discovered your thread in the last day or so and love what you've got going on here.

I've been into 1st Inning o/u for a while, trying to spot trends. I've got a couple of indicators and wanted your opinion on something. I agree about ERA skewing the numbers... would you put more weight on 1st inning OPS or percentage of times a P has allowed a 1st inning run over a recent stretch. Or none of the above?

So far I'm ahead for the year with my indicators, but I'm always looking for ways to get better.

I know you don't want to get into your whole algorithm and I respect that. I just love hearing well thought out theories.

H

[thekoreanmang]

2 for 4 on the day, made $11.70, I'm fine with that:

Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 49-30
Total Profit: 56.26%
Bankroll day 18: $1093.84

Hit rate: 62.02%

2-2 after a nice hot streak is a-ok, especially where you're betting on nice plus money lines. Good job, bruv.

[TechnicalTrader]

TT,

Thanks for posting these, I've just discovered your thread in the last day or so and love what you've got going on here.

I've been into 1st Inning o/u for a while, trying to spot trends. I've got a couple of indicators and wanted your opinion on something. I agree about ERA skewing the numbers... would you put more weight on 1st inning OPS or percentage of times a P has allowed a 1st inning run over a recent stretch. Or none of the above?

So far I'm ahead for the year with my indicators, but I'm always looking for ways to get better.

I know you don't want to get into your whole algorithm and I respect that. I just love hearing well thought out theories.

H

Excellent question! First five batters OPS aginst SP is a stat I play around with. My only issue with it is the amount of AB's you get on that matchup and the time stetch you usually see. Let's take a look at one of tonights' matchups, Carrasco vs. Gardner:

Gardners' OPS is .855 against Tanaka and his OBP is .471.They only matched up twice last season where Garnder went 2 for 10, with two walks and only two singles and not once in 2016. Do you use the lifetime OBP (which you are usually provided with) or go with their last certain matchups? I prefer current stats. Lifetime stats against a pitcher like Verlander who is clearly getting worst and worst by the day is not the way I like to look at things. I'll take last three matchups or last 365 days data any day over last seven years data...

Just my two cents though.

BTW, awesome posts/join date ratio!

[TechnicalTrader]

2-2 after a nice hot streak is a-ok, especially where you're betting on nice plus money lines. Good job, bruv.

Gracias!

[TechnicalTrader]

Big day today, I've got 7 picks for today and will split them up in two classes. Class 1 will be using my standard 4% risk and class 2 will be 3%. I'm a little busy right now and don't really have time to explain why I which matchups landed in which class, maybe later.

CIN/MIA O 3%
NYY/CLE U 4%
LAA/BAL O 3%
ATL/CWS O 3%
STL/MIL O 3%
MIN/TEX U 4%
SD/LAD O 3%

[TechnicalTrader]

Two down, five to go!

updated with lines:

CIN/MIA O 3% -125 (won)
NYY/CLE U 4% -125 (won)
LAA/BAL O 3% -145
ATL/CWS O 3% -135
STL/MIL O 3% -115
MIN/TEX U 4% +130
SD/LAD O 3% -110

[TechnicalTrader]

CIN/MIA O 3% -125 (won)
NYY/CLE U 4% -125 (won)
LAA/BAL O 3% -145 (won)
ATL/CWS O 3% -135 (loss)
STL/MIL O 3% -115 (won)
MIN/TEX U 4% +130
SD/LAD O 3% -110

Will be more than happy to win only one of the next two. Did anyone trail me and/or add/take off picks??

[thekoreanmang]

CIN/MIA O 3% -125 (won)
NYY/CLE U 4% -125 (won)
LAA/BAL O 3% -145 (won)
ATL/CWS O 3% -135 (loss)
STL/MIL O 3% -115 (won)
MIN/TEX U 4% +130
SD/LAD O 3% -110

Will bemore than happy to win only one of the next two. Did anyone trail me and/or add/take off picks??

Tailed all. Good job!

[pairadux]

Love it.

We were on the same page on cin/mia and nyy/cle (and both hit!). Didn't tail you but drove alongside for those at least

To answer your question, TT, I haven't really dabbled into individual head to head stats when it comes to batters vs. pitchers. I found a good link to recent 1st innning success and made my decision on cin/mia instead of the det/tor game.

I've played with 1st inning OPS for the SP and team road/home 1st inning team percentages. I tried multiplying 1st% and OPS, or even adding 1st inning ERA. In the end, I got rid of the fancy stuff, and just upped the requirements for the OPS/1st inning percentage. When it comes to overs, I only average 1-2 per day (I've gotten picky) and am now just exploring the U side of the .5 world.

Let's keep the train running!

[TechnicalTrader]

Love it.

We were on the same page on cin/mia and nyy/cle (and both hit!). Didn't tail you but drove alongside for those at least

To answer your question, TT, I haven't really dabbled into individual head to head stats when it comes to batters vs. pitchers. I found a good link to recent 1st innning success and made my decision on cin/mia instead of the det/tor game.

I've played with 1st inning OPS for the SP and team road/home 1st inning team percentages. I tried multiplying 1st% and OPS, or even adding 1st inning ERA. In the end, I got rid of the fancy stuff, and just upped the requirements for the OPS/1st inning percentage. When it comes to overs, I only average 1-2 per day (I've gotten picky) and am now just exploring the U side of the .5 world.

Let's keep the train running!

I have no idea how often I go with an under but am pretty sure I pick more overs. What I loved the most about today's MIN/TEX under was Milone, dude has been lights out in the first but it seems as if cappers use his ERA to set the line. Griffin has also been great in the first.

I'm sure there is a few ways of capping the first u/o line but if you ask me, I think it's a lot easier to predict it over 5 innings or an entire game. Somany things can happen in 5, 6 or 9 innings...

PS; 5 and 1 on the day, looking toget that 6th win.

[TechnicalTrader]

What a way to wrap up the first half! With today's 6 and 1 performance, I've added another +20% to my bankroll! Happy to have a few days off and ready to keep it rolling in the second half!

Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 55-31
Total Profit: 79.83%
Bankroll day 19: $1258.83

Hit rate: 63.95%

[jefff]

thanks again for the plays. enjoy the time off

[jlani93]

Thank You TT!!!

I tailed on these games today...

CIN/MIA O 3% -125 (won)
NYY/CLE U 4% -125 (won)
ATL/CWS O 3% -135 (loss)
STL/MIL O 3% -115 (won)

I lost track of time and missed LAA/BAL. Also missed MIN/TEX b/c my husband hijacked my bet and changed it w/o telling me when I sent him to place the bet for me. Won't make the mistake again!


Thanks for the picks, TT. A great way to go into our break.

SaveSave

[TechnicalTrader]

I tailed on these games today...

CIN/MIA O 3% -125 (won)
NYY/CLE U 4% -125 (won)
ATL/CWS O 3% -135 (loss)
STL/MIL O 3% -115 (won)

I lost track of time and missed LAA/BAL. Also missed MIN/TEX b/c my husband hijacked my bet and changed it w/o telling me when I sent him to place the bet for me. Won't make the mistake again!


Thanks for the picks, TT. A great way to go into our break.

SaveSave

LMAO, why would you grant your husband access to your betting account? My wife get's nowhere near mine! That MIN/TEX bet was my favorite, really liked it when I went through the numbers.

I might not get backupand running until the third gameday after the break. I might not have access to my account while in Italy due to gambling laws there so July might be a real quiet month for me.

Happy to see other people making money! Cheers

[TechnicalTrader]

Here is a quick recap of the first leg of this marathon!

Under record:
39:20, 66% hit rate

Over record:
16:11, 59% hit rate

I'm not sure if I should just drop the unders or maybe decrease my risk there. Something to think about over the next few days. I am also going to ditch the in-game bets. Too much work and stress, feels like I am daytrading with those bets.

I usually use the last X amount of games in order to predict an over/under, so I will most likely sit out the first three or four days after the break.

While I'm on vacation, I have someone here who should be able to keep my bets going, just not sure if he'll have time to post them on this forum. If I can access the forum, I might be able to get them up.

See you ladies and gents in a few days,
TT

[chaka]

Here is a quick recap of the first leg of this marathon!

Under record:
39:20, 66% hit rate

Over record:
16:11, 59% hit rate

I'm not sure if I should just drop the unders or maybe decrease my risk there. Something to think about over the next few days. I am also going to ditch the in-game bets. Too much work and stress, feels like I am daytrading with those bets.

I usually use the last X amount of games in order to predict an over/under, so I will most likely sit out the first three or four days after the break.

While I'm on vacation, I have someone here who should be able to keep my bets going, just not sure if he'll have time to post them on this forum. If I can access the forum, I might be able to get them up.

See you ladies and gents in a few days,
TT

why would you drop either? 59%and 66%...albeit small sample sizes those are great win % though can fluctuate greatly still one way or the other

there has been a record breaking year in solo homeruns ...
do you know what your record was in overs where the game was won by a "solo" homerun rather than manufactured runs?

of the over wins how many were just a single run vs more than one?

have you tracked how many men LOB in overs that lost?....
have you done better or worse with certain teams?

are you hittings odds groups at money making percentages? not enough data(plays) at this time really to get answer here

during the off time you should analyze the games you played but i'm venturing to guess you havent made post game notes to answer some of the above questions-which is fine .. ex..runner thrown out at home on an over, bases loaded no outs didnt score etc
while the bet may have lost---it wasnt because you handicapped it incorrectly

some will say a win is a win and a loss is a loss...factually and short term wagering sure but long term those runners arent getting thrown out at high rate and no runs from bases loaded no outs wont happen that often either... and i dont expect the first inning HR rate to continue at its current pace either

before making any drastic changes- see how many times lady luck was on your side and how many times she wasn't....if its about even -why change?

food for thought
best of luck

[thekoreanmang]

Really good thoughts by chaka. Thanks for contributing.

[TechnicalTrader]

Some of these upcoming matchups are looking super juicy. I might have to take a few, at a reduced position.

The following unders are looking sweet:

NYM/PHI
KC/DET

I'll get all of the other matchups posted tomorrow, but again I might just sit out a few days.

[jlani93]

Some of these upcoming matchups are looking super juicy. I might have to take a few, at a reduced position.

The following unders are looking sweet:

NYM/PHI
KC/DET

I'll get all of the other matchups posted tomorrow, but again I might just sit out a few days.

Thanks TT!

Why are you thinking about sitting our for a few days?

[TechnicalTrader]

Thanks TT!

Why are you thinking about sitting our for a few days?

One of the variables I use is based strongly on momentum; "what team X or player(s) X have done over the last X amount of games or situational AB's". Most of that momentum has been wiped out due to the break. I'd like to see momentum built first.

[TechnicalTrader]

Again, not really in to today's games but will go 2% on the following bet:

under
NYM/PHL -109

Not over excited on any overs today, second tier unders would be:

KC/DET -114
TOR/OAK -117
HOU/SEA -124

Maybe 1% on the above 3 but will most likely end up sitting it out.

[thekoreanmang]

Nice. Good luck today. It was nice to have a break these past handful of days.

Interesting that my books (Betonline, Bookmaker) don't offer F1 O/U until later in the day.

[TechnicalTrader]

Nice. Good luck today. It was nice to have a break these past handful of days.

Interesting that my books (Betonline, Bookmaker) don't offer F1 O/U until later in the day.

Marathonbet are the quickest with a current max stake of EUR 27.17. The lines usually open between 11:30 AM and around 12:50 PM EST. Some games' lines don't open until about 30 minutes before game time. Which really, really sucks for me being overseas!

Does anyone in here use thegreek? I heard they have decent first inning o/u lines.

[Trivial]

Marathonbet are the quickest with a current max stake of EUR 27.17. The lines usually open between 11:30 AM and around 12:50 PM EST. Some games' lines don't open until about 30 minutes before game time. Which really, really sucks for me being overseas!

Does anyone in here use thegreek? I heard they have decent first inning o/u lines.

NYM/PHL -105 at TG for Under

They are not yet posted on the other 3 games.

[TechnicalTrader]

NYM/PHL -105 at TG for Under

They are not yet posted on the other 3 games.

Thanks

[Trivial]

Thanks

No problem.

Here are the rest that just got posted at TG. Pretty comparable with what you see.

KC/DET -115
TOR/OAK -120
HOU/SEA -125

[SlickRick1382]

What's TG is you don't mind my asking?

Thanks
Rick

[Trivial]

What's TG is you don't mind my asking?

Thanks
Rick

The Greek

[thekoreanmang]

2-0 so far. Makes me want to bet on the remaining overs. I only bet the under.

[jlani93]

2-0 so far. Makes me want to bet on the remaining overs. I only bet the under.

Did I misread TT's picks? I thought all the picks were UNDERS b/c he didn't like any overs.

[Stammertime91]

Did I misread TT's picks? I thought all the picks were UNDERS b/c he didn't like any overs.

No you read it right. They were all unders

[BIG]

No you read it right. They were all unders

Lol yeah me 2 I guess the guys that misread are 2-0 gd for them lol

[TechnicalTrader]

Yes, they were all unders but as stated before I'd prefer to sit out the first few days of the second half.

Yesterdays' resluts:

2%/BR
NYM/PHL -109 (won)

1%BR
KC/DET -114 (loss)
TOR/OAK -117 (loss)
HOU/SEA -124 (loss)

I didn't bet any of them in the account I've been tracking but for numbers purposes I'll update the numbers:

Bankroll at start: $700.00
Record: 56-34
Total Profit: 77.85%
Bankroll day 25: $1244.98

Hit rate: 63.95%

[TechnicalTrader]

Not going to bet today, but these these are the matchups I'd go with:

overs:
COL/ATL
MIA/STL
SF/SD

unders:
HOU/SEA
CLE/MIN