New Baseball Power Rating System

ShivaBowl · 07-22-10, 07:36 AM

Team Projected Runs for 7/22/2010
MIN
NYY
MIL n/p lost 2
BOS n/p lost 2 but a 2.8 that's high maybe a good R/L play
BOS, in this situation has been $.
No TPR plays if you pay -175 and over.

Complimentary Selection from Sportrends

Take Atlanta W/Hudson over San Diego W/Richard NO PLAY if < -145 or > -175

Formulawiz · 07-22-10, 07:58 AM

ML system went 2-3 yesterday

Todays plays based on early lines

ATL, LAD, MIN, TEX

HoulihansTX · 07-22-10, 08:25 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

S/A Plays
Astros W (Closer +160
Colorado L (+105
Texas L (-110)
Giants L (+130)
Angels L (+175)
White Sox L (+125)
STL W (-148)
Red Sox L (-110)

7/20 (2-6) -3.55 units

EXhoosier10 · 07-22-10, 08:43 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

7/20 (1-5) -3.5 units

St. Louis was a play (-268 proj....-148 actual) They won +1u
Boston was a play (-184 proj.... -110 actual) They Lost -1.10u
(2-6) -3.55

HoulihansTX · 07-22-10, 08:55 AM

S/A System

Padres (No Play <+140)
Twins (No Play >-175)
Angels (No Play <+140)
STL (No Play >-155)
Royals
With all the favs, today looks promising. This is all based off early lines.

shock11 · 07-22-10, 08:57 AM

wow great power system

EXhoosier10 · 07-22-10, 09:11 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

S/A System

Padres (No Play <+140)
Twins (No Play >-175)
Angels (No Play <+140)
Red Sox (No Play > -175)
STL (No Play >-155)
Reds (No Play >-175)
Blue Jays (No Play >-104)

With all the favs, today looks promising. This is all based off early lines.

Volquez doesn't have 20+ iP. No play.
Boston has lost 2 in a row. No play.
Kansas City also is a play

HoulihansTX · 07-22-10, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Volquez doesn't have 20+ iP. No play. Boston has lost 2 in a row. No play. Kansas City also is a play

Corrected.

EXhoosier10 · 07-22-10, 11:57 PM

These are my numbers for tonight with updates since the all star game

ML (2-0)....since A.S. break, 12-11 -3.05units
ATL
TEX

TPR (1-0) ....since A.S. break, 6-11 -8.75units
Min

SA (1-4)....since A.S. break, 21-21 +0.75units
Toronto -L
San Diego -L
Minnesota -W
Kansas City -L
Angels -L

Formulawiz · 07-23-10, 07:06 AM

ML system went 4-0 yesterday. There is something going on with the closing lines from these casinos. I placed all my games in 2 to 3 minutes before the lines closed. I was able to get all 4 games in within the filter ranges we set up. I wake up this morning and the closing lines have moved in some cases against the winning games. During my conversation with sportrends the other day, they feel the casinos are purposely doing this to screw up the win/loss records of all the systems out there they are familiar with. One of the key values they look at is that -175 ML. Again just something to talk about.

ML plays later.

ShivaBowl · 07-23-10, 07:12 AM

Team Projected Runs for 7/23/2010
BOS 2.8
MIN 1.3
NYY 1.0
CIN 2.0 N/P Lost 2
No TPR Plays if you pay -175 & over

Complimentary Selection from Sportrends 7/23/2010

Take San Fran W/Sanchez over Arizona W/Jackson NO PLAY if > -175

HoulihansTX · 07-23-10, 07:56 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

S/A System
Padres (+155) L
Twins (-150) W
Angels (+165) L
STL (-160) L
Royals (+260) L

(1-4) -3.6 units

ShivaBowl · 07-23-10, 08:30 AM

If the M/L System wants to count LAD and TEX as Wins that's fine with
me, but the lines were high.
ATL OK
I have a No Play <-160 on MIN, as a M/L Play?
GL
Were are the Cubs, lets go.

HoulihansTX · 07-23-10, 08:37 AM

S/A System

Padres (No Play >-144)
Giants (No Play >-153)
Twins (No Play >-175)
Rays (No Play >-175)
Sea (No Play >-131)
Was (No Play <+138)
STL (No Play <+147)

HoulihansTX · 07-23-10, 08:38 AM

Umm.... So who is playing the Cubs today?

I seriously thinks its a joke, and win or lose not worth the price.

Formulawiz · 07-23-10, 09:42 AM

Todays ML plays based on early lines

CUBS, OAK

ShivaBowl · 07-23-10, 10:24 AM

Dan Bebe pregame.com
Cardinals @ Cubs (-150) J. Suppan vs. R. Wells;
Well, let's see. Randy Wells did TRY to make a start against the Cardinals earlier this year, but didn't get too far. He failed to record an out while surrendering 5 runs in 6 hits. Thus, no surprise, averaging "infinite" into an ERA against a particular team is probably going to inflate it. Still, he's 0-2 with a 10.13 ERA against St. Louis, and this game is almost entirely about determining which factor prevails. We know Suppan is finally starting to get a little rhythm, so he'll probably be serviceable. But, will we get the Randy Wells that can't retire a Cardinal, or the one that has made 4 straight super-strong starts? Decide that, and you've got your play.

LETS GO CUBS!

ShivaBowl · 07-23-10, 10:50 AM

Team Projected Runs for 7/23/2010
BOS 2.8, Win
MIN 1.3, Loss
NYY 1.0, Win n/p
CIN 2.0 N/P Lost 2, Win n/p
No TPR Plays if you pay -175 & over

FYI; I have been playing N/P that filter out with 2 losses.
Tired of seeing win after win going down because of this filter, TPR only.

bobby29 · 07-23-10, 11:05 AM

First off you would have to be a very rookie gambler to think the casinos are purposely screwing with lines to make your systems not work. Books get hit hard late with lots of favorite money everyday, thats why games move out of range. I wish i had a dime for everytime i read on the net, how they think books are messing with their systems. Its very simple folks, books set a line and they tell you to beat that line. They dont have the time to surf the net looking for systems to screw with. They have been making millions of dollars for years and years doing it this way, no reason to change now. Tell your buddy sam to make a system that picks dogs and he wouldnt see games move out of range all the time.

HoulihansTX · 07-23-10, 12:03 PM

Right now Cubs are a ML play, and STL is an S/A play

Cubs (>-140 <-175) ML
STL (>+147) S/A

Currently Cubs-160 / STL +150

Proceed with caution.

Tks Shiva

Formulawiz · 07-23-10, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by bobby29

First off you would have to be a very rookie gambler to think the casinos are purposely screwing with lines to make your systems not work. Books get hit hard late with lots of favorite money everyday, thats why games move out of range. I wish i had a dime for everytime i read on the net, how they think books are messing with their systems. Its very simple folks, books set a line and they tell you to beat that line. They dont have the time to surf the net looking for systems to screw with. They have been making millions of dollars for years and years doing it this way, no reason to change now. Tell your buddy sam to make a system that picks dogs and he wouldnt see games move out of range all the time.

I beg to differ with you my friend. Books are very up on all the systems out there and they do make adjustments. You can take that to the bank.

bobby29 · 07-23-10, 05:15 PM

This post right here shows how little you truly know about gambling and what the oddsmakers do. They dont give a rats ass about systems, chasers, this angle that angle, in the end they eat the pants right off all those players. So please keep living in your fantasyworld, where you think the books are checking in on your system everyday, so they can move the lines and mess it up. One of the funniest things i have heard in my 30 years gambling. The books have lived thru every type of system ever thrown at it and guess what they are still here.
Your moneyline system is nothing more then a favorite system, when the favs are winning, you win a few bucks, but when the favs are getting beat, your system gets the crap beat out of it.
You did provide me with a good laugh today thou.

Originally posted by Formulawiz

I beg to differ with you my friend. Books are very up on all the systems out there and they do make adjustments. You can take that to the bank.

EXhoosier10 · 07-23-10, 09:06 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

There is no way I played the CUBS when the line was driven up by the public to -175. As a matter of fact I went with the SA system in this one. Thats why I put the comment in this morning about the CUBS.
A little common sense was need in this game.

Did you take St. Louis on the SA system today?

HoulihansTX · 07-23-10, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

S/A System

Padres (-110) W
Giants (-110) W
Twins (-130) L
Rays (-150) L (7inn loss

)
Sea (+110) L
STL (+150) L

Washington dropped out -- did not met ML requirements.

(2-4) -2.8 units

EXhoosier10 · 07-23-10, 11:50 PM

These are my numbers for tonight with updates since the all star game

ML (1-0)....since A.S. break, 13-11 -2.05units
CHC

TPR (1-1) ....since A.S. break, 6-12 -9.05units
BOS
MIN

SA (1-5 with SF pending)....since A.S. break, 22-26 -4.05units
WAS - L
TB - L
STL - L
SEA - L
SF -???
SD - W
MIN - L

ShivaBowl · 07-24-10, 05:16 AM

TPR (1-0) ....since A.S. break, 6-11 -8.75units
Min-W
TPR (1-1) ....since A.S. break, 6-12 -9.05units ?
BOS-W
MIN-L

Comp Plays, Since A.S. break, 5-1

Formulawiz · 07-24-10, 08:10 AM

ML system went 1-1 yesterday.

I have been following the SA system since its inception a few weeks ago. I am wondering why sportrends does not use the same theory for this system as they use for the ML system when making a pick.

ML plays later on today.

HoulihansTX · 07-24-10, 08:29 AM

S/A System

Dodgers ( No Play <-138)
Padres (No Play >-175)
Reds (No Play >-157)
Giants (No Play >-175)
White Sox (No Play <+130)
Twins (No Play <-141)
Rays (No Play >-175)
Bos?

ShivaBowl · 07-24-10, 08:40 AM

Team Projected Runs for 7/24/2010
BOS 2.8
CIN 2.0
MIN 1.3
NYY 1.1
No TPR Plays if you pay -175 & over
TPR since A.S. break, 8-12
COMP Plays A.S. 5-1

MLB 2009 Premium Internet Service 103 - 67 ( + 14.40 Units )

Complimentary Selection for 7/24/2010

Take Oakland W/Mazzaro over Chi W Sox W/Garcia NO PLAY if < -115 or > -175

Formulawiz · 07-24-10, 09:12 AM

ML plays for today based on early lines

CHC, SD, HOU, OAK

EXhoosier10 · 07-24-10, 09:51 AM

Team Projected Runs for 7/24/2010
BOS 2.8 ?
CIN 2.0
MIN 1.3
NYY 1.1 ?

Formulawiz · 07-24-10, 10:22 AM

Originally posted by EXhoosier10

Team Projected Runs for 7/24/2010
BOS 2.8 ?
CIN 2.0
MIN 1.3
NYY 1.1 ?

It does not mean the NYY are only going to score 1.1 runs, it means they will score 1.1 runs more then KC.

EXhoosier10 · 07-24-10, 10:29 AM

They both are well over -175, and not plays...

ShivaBowl · 07-24-10, 11:17 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

ML system went 1-1 yesterday. I have been following the SA system since its inception a few weeks ago. I am wondering why sportrends does not use the same theory for this system as they use for the ML system when making a pick. ML plays later on today.

I haven't talked with Sam about the new S/A System, but I think he is trying to get more plays
on live dogs and P/K games, that's what I have been using it for, but of course I could be mistaken?
CINN, SFG, CWS, WAS out but a nice play today.

Formulawiz · 07-24-10, 11:41 AM

Originally posted by ShivaBowl

I haven't talked with Sam about the new S/A System, but I think he is trying to get more plays
on live dogs and P/K games, that's what I have been using it for, but of course I could be mistaken?
CINN, SFG, CWS, WAS out but a nice play today.

I think you make a good point about playing more dogs. I also think they are monitoring the system since its new and next year they could make adjustments depending on what they find.