New Baseball Power Rating System

barts185 · 05-31-10, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by Cranium

Would HOU be a ML play if it drops to -175 or less?

Thanks

I think so. And, HOU ML is already less than -175.

I think (still not certain so wait for forumlawiz) plays would be FLA, HOU, STL, NYM are filtered out due to 2 game Win streak of SDG, NYY are filtered out too high a line, TOR as long as you are getting +125 or less.

Good Luck,
Bart

konck · 05-31-10, 03:40 PM

Does anyone thing T Bay can be the highest rated team at years end?

Formulawiz · 05-31-10, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by barts185

I think so. And, HOU ML is already less than -175.

I think (still not certain so wait for forumlawiz) plays would be FLA, HOU, STL, NYM are filtered out due to 2 game Win streak of SDG, NYY are filtered out too high a line, TOR as long as you are getting +125 or less.

Good Luck,
Bart

Hou would be a play and NYM would not due to SD on a 2 game winning streak. The only way NYM would be a play is if they were on at least a 2 game winning streak.

Formulawiz · 06-01-10, 05:43 AM

Another winning day yesterday. ML went 2-1.

ML plays later today

Formulawiz · 06-01-10, 07:11 AM

Today's ML system plays based on early lines

ATL, FLA, HOU, BOS, CHW and COL. I personally myself wont go against (Zito and SF).

peterpan19 · 06-01-10, 09:13 AM

TPR today:
DET, BOS, WAS, MIN

BOL

peterpan19 · 06-01-10, 09:17 AM

and dont forget, the only AL team yesterday (MIN, DET was -180) won again !

Cranium · 06-01-10, 02:57 PM

Thanks for posting the plays Wiz and Peter!

konck · 06-01-10, 09:03 PM

crds>

konck · 06-01-10, 09:03 PM

what about the cards

Formulawiz · 06-02-10, 04:46 AM

ML system went 4-1 yesterday. Although COL won, I myself stayed away from SF with Zito. Too bad ATL dropped out, that would have been another win.

Todays plays later today.

annina · 06-02-10, 05:51 AM

Another winning day !!!! Tx

Formulawiz · 06-02-10, 06:45 AM

Todays ML plays based on early lines
NYM, HOU, TOR, SEA

wrongturn · 06-02-10, 08:25 AM

looks interesting. thanks for the work.

LVBOUND · 06-02-10, 10:02 AM

Does you system rank the Teams? as in Power Rankings??

Matt

peterpan19 · 06-02-10, 11:00 AM

Tpr:
Bos, was, cin, min

gl

jetsjets1028 · 06-02-10, 11:05 AM

i dont know bout houston that mgiht be 1 the nats win

Formulawiz · 06-02-10, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by LVBOUND

Does you system rank the Teams? as in Power Rankings??

Matt

I dont believe the ML system ranks any teams. What sportrends does is create a money line which you then compare to the Actual ML. If you go to their site and read it , you will get an idea as to what they do.
As far as the TPR system is compared there is a writeup as well.

wrongturn · 06-02-10, 03:47 PM

Formulawiz, do you have the W-L record for ML system in May? My understanding is that the system tries to identify the plays that entice to public and bet the opposite. Is that right?

Formulawiz · 06-02-10, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by wrongturn

Formulawiz, do you have the W-L record for ML system in May? My understanding is that the system tries to identify the plays that entice to public and bet the opposite. Is that right?

Thats correct. Look back a couple of posts in which I tried to explain it. It really is not an opposite play. I dont have the record but I know its unbelievable. Its continuing to kill the bookies from last year and I mean big time in conjunction with the software.

wrongturn · 06-02-10, 04:00 PM

Thanks for the hard work, Formulawiz.

peterpan19 · 06-02-10, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by wrongturn

Formulawiz, do you have the W-L record for ML system in May? My understanding is that the system tries to identify the plays that entice to public and bet the opposite. Is that right?

I cant give you a number on how many units won but I can tell you that since May 1st the record for the ML system is 72-47 just hitting over 60%

barts185 · 06-02-10, 07:05 PM

Are CWS a moneyline play since it's moved to -125 or higher?

konck · 06-02-10, 07:26 PM

Yanks are the greatest

konck · 06-02-10, 07:26 PM

last week they were +145 to win there div gift

peterpan19 · 06-02-10, 08:00 PM

konck

could you stop with your non topic related posts ?

Formulawiz · 06-03-10, 04:31 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

I cant give you a number on how many units won but I can tell you that since May 1st the record for the ML system is 72-47 just hitting over 60%

Peter if you start at May 15th where we should, the win/loss record is close to 70% and I dont know what the units are either.

Formulawiz · 06-03-10, 05:30 AM

ML system went 2-3 yesterday but thanks to the software BB that went 2-0 and PT which went 4-1 I had a great day.

ML plays later today.

Formulawiz · 06-03-10, 06:23 AM

Todays ML plays based on early lines
KC, TEX, SEA

wrongturn · 06-03-10, 07:22 AM

TEX is in? I think it should be HOU instead?

Formulawiz · 06-03-10, 07:26 AM

Originally posted by wrongturn

TEX is in? I think it should be HOU instead?

You need to read the filters HOU would not be a play. As far as TEX we will see before the game starts.

peterpan19 · 06-03-10, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Peter if you start at May 15th where we should, the win/loss record is close to 70% and I dont know what the units are either.

I used our posted record here and it is 60% since May 15th too, it might feel like 70% but its "only" 60%

TPR today:
BOS today (MIL would be too, but pitcher has no IP so far this year)

GL

barts185 · 06-03-10, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

I used our posted record here and it is 60% since May 15th too, it might feel like 70% but its "only" 60%

TPR today:
BOS today (MIL would be too, but pitcher has no IP so far this year)

GL

FWIW, MIL pitcher last pitched in 2007, has had 2 "Tommy John" surgeries. There was a clause in his contract that they had to either call him up or let him become a free agent by this Saturday.

I'd appreciate knowing why ATL and TEX are not TPR plays today, they seem to fit the system and filters I know about.

I realize LAD are on a 4 game win streak, but though that ATL 8 game win streak would negate that in the filter. Medlen doesn't have a lot more than 20 innings pitched, but does have 22 1/3. In the TEX/CWS game, I don't see anything that would come close to a filter.

Thanks,
Bart

peterpan19 · 06-03-10, 10:46 AM

Originally posted by barts185

FWIW, MIL pitcher last pitched in 2007, has had 2 "Tommy John" surgeries. There was a clause in his contract that they had to either call him up or let him become a free agent by this Saturday. I'd appreciate knowing why ATL and TEX are not TPR plays today, they seem to fit the system and filters I know about. I realize LAD are on a 4 game win streak, but though that ATL 8 game win streak would negate that in the filter. Medlen doesn't have a lot more than 20 innings pitched, but does have 22 1/3. In the TEX/CWS game, I don't see anything that would come close to a filter. Thanks, Bart

ATL TPR rating is 0.1 how would that be a play if we need 1 ? and Texas has 0.5 also not 1 !! Dont know what you are looking at.

barts185 · 06-03-10, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

ATL TPR rating is 0.1 how would that be a play if we need 1 ? and Texas has 0.5 also not 1 !! Dont know what you are looking at.

My understanding was that the TPR was always being shown for the home team.

What I'm looking at shows

ATL vs. LAD. LAD has a TPR of -0.1.

TEX vs. CWS CWS has a TPR of -0.5

"a play on the road team is warranted when the home team value is under 1, indicating the home team will be expected to give up more runs."

Both of those values are under 1 for the home team, so it looked to me like they would be a play on the road team unless the road team was filtered out somehow.

Am I wrong? If so, that's fine, but from reading the rules, I don't understand how they are not plays.

It seems like you are saying that the value for the home team has to be below -1, not below +1.