New Baseball Power Rating System

peterpan19 · 07-08-09, 05:18 AM

PR went 2-5 -2.77...filtered went 1-4 -3.07... and modified went 2-5 -10.42 units... so far its a horrible week...

BB went 2-2 wins with LAD and COl and losses with LAA and SEA ...det and Bos would have been plays too, but line was too high...

Formulawiz · 07-08-09, 07:11 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

PR went 2-5 -2.77...filtered went 1-4 -3.07... and modified went 2-5 -10.42 units... so far its a horrible week...

BB went 2-2 wins with LAD and COl and losses with LAA and SEA ...det and Bos would have been plays too, but line was too high...

Another nice day with PT system 6-3. This has been on fire as well.

peterpan19 · 07-08-09, 07:26 AM

only 3 plays today, WAS, OAK and NYM... but they are all filtered out...so only 1 unit each (wont play WAS for sure)

GL

peterpan19 · 07-08-09, 07:31 AM

mhhh...I got PT at 5-4.... LAD, COL, STL, SF, CWS wins and losses on SEA, HOU, CHC and LAA ...?

Cannaloop · 07-08-09, 09:21 AM

I got PT at 6-4 Wins: LAD, STL, COL, CHW, BOS(RL) and SFO. Losses: HOU, LAA, CHC and SEA

Formulawiz · 07-08-09, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

mhhh...I got PT at 5-4.... LAD, COL, STL, SF, CWS wins and losses on SEA, HOU, CHC and LAA ...?

My error 5-3. LAA -175 to -180 and no play for me.

peterpan19 · 07-09-09, 03:27 AM

PR went 1-2

Formulawiz · 07-09-09, 08:14 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

PR went 1-2

Pete, I had 1-1 +.4 units
WAS was no play 2 game losing streak and its WAS.

peterpan19 · 07-09-09, 09:53 AM

formulawiz
well yeah that 1-2 was for the unfiltered plays... of course I didnt play WAS, but OAK and NYM were filtered out too... so yesterday we had no filtered plays...

peterpan19 · 07-09-09, 10:38 AM

todays plays:
PR: TB, MIL, KC; NYM, WAS, ARZ, SD, MIN
filtered PR plays: TB, MIL, NYM, ARZ

GL

Formulawiz · 07-10-09, 05:28 AM

Nice day BB 4-1 and PT 7-1. Software is holding up pretty good.

DJJimGreen · 07-10-09, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Nice day BB 4-1 and PT 7-1. Software is holding up pretty good.

Since I did not receive a response to my last post, I'm assuming getting the BB bets is a no. However, I looked over their site and am a bit confused on how exactly it would all work... Would I just purchase the system and throw in their stipulations? Where do the BB's come from?

Formulawiz · 07-10-09, 03:05 PM

Originally posted by DJJimGreen

Since I did not receive a response to my last post, I'm assuming getting the BB bets is a no. However, I looked over their site and am a bit confused on how exactly it would all work... Would I just purchase the system and throw in their stipulations? Where do the BB's come from?

The Best Bets and Pythag Theorm plays come from the software. The filters are something both I and Peter have come up with.

DJJimGreen · 07-10-09, 07:24 PM

Ahhh thanks. It would seem to me that the BB's are killin.

Originally posted by Formulawiz

Quote:
Originally Posted by DJJimGreen
Since I did not receive a response to my last post, I'm assuming getting the BB bets is a no. However, I looked over their site and am a bit confused on how exactly it would all work... Would I just purchase the system and throw in their stipulations? Where do the BB's come from?

The Best Bets and Pythag Theorm plays come from the software. The filters are something both I and Peter have come up with.

Formulawiz · 07-11-09, 07:52 AM

Originally posted by DJJimGreen

Ahhh thanks. It would seem to me that the BB's are killin.

Another big winning day with BB 4-1 and PT 6-3

madness · 07-11-09, 09:19 AM

Formula,

From what i recall going thru this thread...would it be correct to say you have had your primary success most years from following the Best bets feature on the software with your added filters and some of these other things in this thread are things that are being tracked for future potential? Just looking to play something that has been a proven winner over time.

thanks!

Formulawiz · 07-11-09, 10:12 AM

Originally posted by madness

Formula,

From what i recall going thru this thread...would it be correct to say you have had your primary success most years from following the Best bets feature on the software with your added filters and some of these other things in this thread are things that are being tracked for future potential? Just looking to play something that has been a proven winner over time.

thanks!

Yes I have been very successful using the BB plays over the years. I believe somone pointed out the PT plays and I have been using them as well. The filters I use can be found in our thread which I have always used to make plays. I believe Peter has been following the PR system found on sportrends website.

peterpan19 · 07-11-09, 12:26 PM

ok guys...had no time yesterday to post the plays...PR went 6-4 +2.57... filtered went 4-2 +2.46... so it was a nice day and sorry guys I didnt post it ... my system was also profitable yesterday 6-4 +11.03 units... but for the week we are still down almost 15 units...PR is 11-21 -8.15...filtered are 6-10 -3.61

todays plays to follow

GL

peterpan19 · 07-11-09, 01:52 PM

PR plays: NYY, STL, DET, PIT, CIN, COL, TX
filtered: NYY, STL, DET, CIN, COL, TX

GL

BamaBill67 · 07-12-09, 03:34 AM

Since you can't post BB, I was wondering if you would send them to me in a PM? I don't mind purchasing, but would like to see first hand. Thanks.

peterpan19 · 07-12-09, 05:29 AM

well another horrible day...every game we had lost...not one single win...will be back later to post sundays plays...

GL

Formulawiz · 07-12-09, 05:55 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

well another horrible day...every game we had lost...not one single win...will be back later to post sundays plays...

GL

Not a good day for the BB and the PTs. Hopefully we can bounce back today.

peterpan19 · 07-12-09, 06:40 AM

todays PR plays:
NYM, OAK, HOU, CWS, ARZ
filtered: NYM, HOU, CWS

peterpan19 · 07-13-09, 02:29 AM

PR went 3-2
filtered went 2-1

Formulawiz · 07-13-09, 05:36 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

PR went 3-2
filtered went 2-1

BB and PT had a nice first half. I just purchased sportrends college and pro football software and it seems there were some nice changes to the trend and situational analysis. I will probably be starting a football thread when it starts. I am not sure if we should start a thread for college and one for the pros or combine them. Any ideas.

Tommygunn · 07-13-09, 05:20 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

BB and PT had a nice first half. I just purchased sportrends college and pro football software and it seems there were some nice changes to the trend and situational analysis. I will probably be starting a football thread when it starts. I am not sure if we should start a thread for college and one for the pros or combine them. Any ideas.

I think you should combine them on one page kinda one stop shopping but if you do them separately I'll follow both. Going to buy pro and collage ball programs in a week or two. My first year at football so I may have some questions on how it works. If it's
just like basketball I've learned enough through your thread's.

Thanks guys for all the help.

Formula or Pete: Is there a waiting period in football eg. three or four weeks so systems can compile stats for plays. Like waiting a month in Baseball???

Formulawiz · 07-14-09, 05:57 AM

Originally posted by Tommygunn

I think you should combine them on one page kinda one stop shopping but if you do them separately I'll follow both. Going to buy pro and collage ball programs in a week or two. My first year at football so I may have some questions on how it works. If it's
just like basketball I've learned enough through your thread's.

Thanks guys for all the help.

Formula or Pete: Is there a waiting period in football eg. three or four weeks so systems can compile stats for plays. Like waiting a month in Baseball???

I just purchased both college and pro football the other day. Ill try to explain some of the features but the best thing would be to go to their website and you will find a better explanation and you can even download their demo for free.

You can start using the programs immediately because there is a very large database going back several years. The program is set up like the pro basketball but it is much more sophisticated with many more features. For example you can create and test your own formulas but it is much better then the pro basketball. If you have patients you can come up with some unbelievable formulas that have very high winning percentages. They have some screens that I personally like which is called the Team Performance and True Power which you will have to go to their website for an explanation. The best of all there is the Situation Builder. If you are into Trend and Situation analysis and handicapping its unbelievable with some of the trends you can come up with. I have never seen any other program that lets you do trend analysis using the "When", "After" and "Before". Oh by the way, the Power Ratings are unbelievable and right on the mark.

As soon as football starts Ill post the college and pro football spreadsheets I received last year and if there are any of you who are programmers, maybe we can automate downloading the stats.

ButtoMcFarty · 07-14-09, 04:30 PM

Read through the whole thread now....one thing jumped out....the confusion how to use the Sportrend Power Ratings....

The Sportrend website says this as of today:

PR System - When calculating the pitchers due factor the lower the power rating the better his chances of winning his next outing. When utilizing this method we have been most successful testing our system when there is a 20 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If a pitcher is 20 points or more, lower then his opponent, we can presume he is going to pitch a better game then his opponent. It should be noted here the pitcher must have pitched at least 20 innings to be considered.

The next step is to see how well the pitcher does with his teams bullpen. When calculating the pitchers success with his bullpen, the lower the power rating the better the bullpen performs for that particular pitcher. When utilizing this method we have been most successful when there is a 100 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If the bullpen is 100 points or more, lower then his opponents, the bullpen is expected to perform better in that particular matchup.

Yet....this is posted earlier:

Originally posted by Formulawiz

I went back and read the PR system description very carefully. This is what it says: "PR System - When calculating the pitchers true ability the higher the power rating the better his chances of winning his next outing."

Sooo.....Which one is it??

The fact that the company would allow such a mistake to be posted raises some flags for me.....It's kinda an IMPORTANT PART RIGHT??

I'm going to papertrade the second half of the season using the PR #s and FB.
Find this... might help anyone doing same....fairly easy to roll into an excel spreadsheet.

http://www.bookmaker.com/CommonFiles/files/Baseball-June-August2009.pdf

Thanks much!

ButtoMcFarty · 07-14-09, 05:28 PM

Test

ButtoMcFarty · 07-14-09, 05:39 PM

Big delay for moderation I guess.....

Cheers.

Formulawiz · 07-14-09, 09:21 PM

Originally posted by ButtoMcFarty

Read through the whole thread now....one thing jumped out....the confusion how to use the Sportrend Power Ratings....

The Sportrend website says this as of today:

PR System - When calculating the pitchers due factor the lower the power rating the better his chances of winning his next outing. When utilizing this method we have been most successful testing our system when there is a 20 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If a pitcher is 20 points or more, lower then his opponent, we can presume he is going to pitch a better game then his opponent. It should be noted here the pitcher must have pitched at least 20 innings to be considered.

The next step is to see how well the pitcher does with his teams bullpen. When calculating the pitchers success with his bullpen, the lower the power rating the better the bullpen performs for that particular pitcher. When utilizing this method we have been most successful when there is a 100 point differential or overlay as a deciding factor. If the bullpen is 100 points or more, lower then his opponents, the bullpen is expected to perform better in that particular matchup.

Yet....this is posted earlier:

Sooo.....Which one is it??

The fact that the company would allow such a mistake to be posted raises some flags for me.....It's kinda an IMPORTANT PART RIGHT??

I'm going to papertrade the second half of the season using the PR #s and FB.
Find this... might help anyone doing same....fairly easy to roll into an excel spreadsheet.
http://www.bookmaker.com/CommonFiles...August2009.pdf

Thanks much!

I am not sure what your question is but these are 2 different systems here and your assuming there is an error when there may not be any. The PR system is based on the pitchers stats while the team PR system is based on the pitchers stats and the bullpen I think. I dont know what sportrends formulas are but Iam sure they must have performed some kind of testing. I believe Peter was keeping win/loss records for the PR system but we did not keep records for the team PR's. Maybe the second half someone can keep the team PR system records.

ButtoMcFarty · 07-14-09, 10:04 PM

One says the lower the rating is stronger.
The other says the higher the rating is stronger.

How long did it take you guys to get your password from Sportrend after ordering? I ordered some 4 hours ago and still no email.
Thanks

ButtoMcFarty · 07-14-09, 10:33 PM

Originally posted by Formulawiz

I am not sure what your question is but these are 2 different systems here and your assuming there is an error when there may not be any. The PR system is based on the pitchers stats while the team PR system is based on the pitchers stats and the bullpen I think. I dont know what sportrends formulas are but Iam sure they must have performed some kind of testing. I believe Peter was keeping win/loss records for the PR system but we did not keep records for the team PR's. Maybe the second half someone can keep the team PR system records.

Maybe I'm not understanding correctly. I see one PR system described at this link:

www.sportrends.com

http://www.sportrends.com/team_pr_mlb.htm

It does say: if both pitching and team criteria above are met the team is considered for a one unit play. If just the pitching criteria is met the team is considered for a 1/2 unit play.

Is that being treated as two different systems because of bet difference??
One system just pitchers = PR
One system pitchers + bullpen = Team PR - Is this the one you need tracked??

I also still see a discrepancy in what you posted....and what is posted at the Sportrend site. You said higher is stronger....site says lower is stronger....

I'm not asking about the formulas. I understand those are proprietary.
I do intend on tracking the second half using several different methods and will happily share my results.
Thanks again.

peterpan19 · 07-15-09, 02:23 AM

I also still see a discrepancy in what you posted....and what is posted at the Sportrend site. You said higher is stronger....site says lower is stronger....

I know that for pitcher PR, which I use the lower is the better... they changed their system like 4 weeks ago or so b4 it was higher was better... now its for lower the better for pitchers which I follow...

GL

btw you should have your pw like 6 hours max. after you paid... normal business hours of course...

Formulawiz · 07-15-09, 07:10 AM

Originally posted by ButtoMcFarty

Maybe I'm not understanding correctly. I see one PR system described at this link:

www.sportrends.com

http://www.sportrends.com/team_pr_mlb.htm

It does say: if both pitching and team criteria above are met the team is considered for a one unit play. If just the pitching criteria is met the team is considered for a 1/2 unit play.

Is that being treated as two different systems because of bet difference??
One system just pitchers = PR
One system pitchers + bullpen = Team PR - Is this the one you need tracked??

I also still see a discrepancy in what you posted....and what is posted at the Sportrend site. You said higher is stronger....site says lower is stronger....

I'm not asking about the formulas. I understand those are proprietary.
I do intend on tracking the second half using several different methods and will happily share my results.
Thanks again.

Your welcome to keep the win/loss records for the team PR's while Peter continues to keep them for the PR's. One other thought, make sure you use the proper filters that are in place.