MLB_ picks

[ShipItToDaddy]

Oh and I had Phillies/Dodgers over 7.. What's my record now?!

									Win	7/7/15 10:10pm MLB Baseball 909 Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 7 -120* (C Billingsley - R must Start B Anderson - L must Start)

Check my messages. Before you talk!!!

[NYRin09]

Check my messages. Before you talk!!!

Do you PM plays? Please add me to your list if so.

[ShipItToDaddy]

Ignore the trolls. Is the $400 DET bet your max bet? Just wondering your confidence level. Gonna tail!

According to fawk face my record is in the negative. Maybe following my picks isn't the best idea.

We should find out what pick bumblebee tuna has to offer?!!


but yes sorry 400$ is my max bet.

[ShipItToDaddy]

BAL ORIOLES -125*1:10PM
RISK $125 TO WIN $100
Alright here we go..Keeping this one brief because it shouldn't take a lot to get this one across. Ubaldo Jimenez (7-4, 2.96 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) is throwing VERY well overall this year and is facing a Twins lineup that I only suggest playing on when facing LHP...as they tend to struggle MUCH more against RHP and with Ubaldo commanding his pitches well and maintaining velocity, I love the O's all around today.

The lineups came out LATE...but I wouldn't play unless Adam Jones and the other cogs were IN and I'm expecting a pretty PISSED-OFF and focused Baltimore lineup today. Tommy Milone (LH) has done an amazing job after an extended trip to the DL...but I think BAL could be trouble for him today as they POUND left-handed pitching. Specifically, they're #12 in runs scored...but #6 in AVG, which I value a bit more AND they've got great track records against Milone hitting over .360 against him in his career.

IF it comes down to the 'pens (I don't expect it to)...we've got the better unit with the Orioles relievers coming in at #6 in ERA while the Twins relief arms are outside the TOP 20...and Milone won't go deep barring a miracle...

[lesterdymond]

Mush tator start..

Keep grinding

[ShipItToDaddy]

Mush tator start..

Keep grinding

Yea not a good start man. I'll be happy to get out of this Balty game with the score where it's at now (8 runs) or I'll take a back door win by Balty since I took the under 8 and Balty to win.

All I can do is keep grinding.. I learn to stay in my own lane on this forum..

thanks for the positive vibes.

bol to you man.

[ShipItToDaddy]

I dont know how the game didn't go over.. It was definetly on pace for it.

ill take the push

2 wins - 1 lose - 1 push - for the day


+ 4.5 units

updating record

yesterday (horrible day)- 2 wins & 5 loses * -3 units for the day

Brings me to +1.5 units


Today- 2 units- balty under 8- push (those 2 back to back homers from both teams hurt (5runs)
1.25 units -balty ML- lose (smh)

Brings me to +.25 units

Pending bets- Detroit ML - 4 units (keep me happy Tigers)

[ShipItToDaddy]

ytd:

12 wins- 15 loses- 4 push

+.25 units (my top unit plays are keeping me in the +)


Going to just keep grinding

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 8 HOU/CLE +1007:10PM
RISK $100 TO WIN $100
If there's ONE thing I've learned over my 15-20 (I'm 30) years watching baseball as a PLAYER and now handicapper/analyst/you-call-it....It's that teams typically RAKE after facing a TOP-tier arm...in this case Corey Kluber (CLE), who tossed a shutout against one of the more dangerous offenses (#2) in ALL of baseball, the Houston Astros. Last night was embarrassing, but it looks like there WILL be ample scoring opportunities tonight.

First, Trevor Bauer, the RHP for the Indians...he's got a fluke 30 at-bats under his belt against this Astros lineup and they haven't hit him...but having time to study/adjust, the Astros will AT LEAST contribute to the shelling I see coming for HOU starter, Dan Strailey tonight. Bauer has had his best year, but that's NOT saying much and he's still prone to giving up runs in bunches and has allowed 13 in his last 3 games...so he's not cruising right now and will see a PISSED Astros lineup.

RHP Dan Strailey has pitched in 1 game and got rocked by a BAD BOS offense allowing 5 runs / 3 walks over 4.2 IP. It's good for a 7.71 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in the small sample..but the projections are bad. The Indians all of the sudden PREFER right-handed pitching and MANY of these CLE hitters have seen Strailey (26 total ABs)...so obviously runs should come.

Bullpens performed LAST night which just makes it ALL the more probable we get "lesser" arms TONIGHT in relief with 11 guys being used over the L2 nights out of the 'pens. Last night WAS flat...but they did score 13 the night prior and we don't have a Cy Young arm going tonight...OVER.

[ShipItToDaddy]

STL CARDINALS +1008:05PM
RISK $100 TO WIN $100
Again...a strange..but telling price here with the Cardinals sending their ACE, Michael Wacha to the hill looking to SPLIT this road series with the Cubbies after losing B2B games the L2 nights. I'm expecting BIG things from a guy I love and KNOW can't be held down...RH Michael Wacha. While on the flip-side, I'm NOT expecting much different from a struggling Cubs righty, Jason Hammel over the last month...not to mention he's 0-3 against STL in his L3 starts against them.

It's a RH vs. RH matchup tonight and that FAR and away favors the Cardinals...EVEN on the road. STL is ranked #3 in MLB and #1 in the NL when it comes to AVG against righties...while CHC comes in at an abysmal #28 against RHP...QUITE the mismatch there.

Wacha is the real deal (win or lose) with a 2.68 road ERA and most recently held CHC to 1 run on 6 hits towards the end of June...while Hammel was roughed up in his last outing against STL...and it was against this current STL lineup too...which is a big +.

Bullpens are NO comparison and I just cannot see STL losing 3 of 4 with all the advantages in their favor here tonight. They're not the same away from "Baseball Heaven"...but the Cubs aren't "great" at home and I like the BETTER team to prevail.

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 9 ARI/TEX -1158:10PM
RISK $115 TO WIN $100
I REALLY liked this # last night...but knew based on the cold TEX bats of late that this # would drop a bit with Hellickson playing well too….but that doesn’t mean I don’t think this game has potential fireworks involved and we see 10 runs minimum in all likelihood tonight...and I’m much happier with OVER 9 than grabbing it last night at 9.5…

Like I always say...we need a 4-4 game here at a minimum and it’s NOT hard to make a case for scoring tonight. Jeremy Hellickson has been pitching WELL above his career averages...with a 5+ ERA and 1.35 WHIP this year DESPITE some good showings...ALL that tells me is he’s prone to BAD games...and Texas has the potential to pound him...as they’ve seen him plenty from his time in the AL (TB). Specifically, the Rangers have hit .345 against him with a decent 60 AB sample size...more impressive… a 1.079 OPS. Hellickson has struggled on the road (5.32 ERA) AND more in his night starts (5.73 ERA) which is a bad combo over here.

Left-hander Josh Harrison gets the call for the Rangers tonight and with him coming off the DL and not expected to last long...it’s GO time with the near guarantee that we get BOTH bullpens QUICK tonight. The D’Backs offense is legit and they’re ranked 5th in MLB against LHP when it comes to AVG....and I’m confident they get their 4 runs too.


BOTH bullpens are BOTTOM 5 quality and I would flat-out be stunned to see this game stay UNDER again after last night’s game played out the way it did…. They get back to scoring runs tonight….

[ShipItToDaddy]

NO WRITE UPS-

A's ML - 2 unit play

Angels ML- 1 unit play

Toronto RL- 1 unit play

Toronto/cws Over8.5 runs - 1 unit

Arizona ML- 1 unit

[larry040681]

BOL.. stl and zona nice picks; esp zona.. hope they can follow through later..

[ShipItToDaddy]

DET TIGERS +100*3:40PM
RISK $400 TO WIN $400
The "average" fan looks at SEA -120 at home with Happ on the mound and thinks...BARGAIN on the Mariners! BUT the reality is the M's are BARELY favored...AT HOME...against the Tigers w/o the BEST HITTER IN BASEBALL...w/ a streaky SP on the mound in Anibal Sanchez. Yet they're STILL ONLY a -120 favorite??? In a "normal" situation... Home team, non-A1 SP opposing them, without BEST player, and sketchy bullpen...my calculations would have SEATTLE -150 or more...

THAT ^^^ is how you've got to think about this game(and about price in general) and I'd be shocked if the sharp $$$ doesn't hammer this "underdog" before 1st pitch. But into the detail...

I'm FADING Mariners LHP JA Happ today for a few reasons...

•Happ is 0-4, 6.13 ERA with 6 HR and 13 walks in 39 IP during the DAY.

•The DET offense ranks #2 against LHP in MLB in AVG (.283) and are TOP 10 in runs scored against lefties AND they're RED HOT.

•The M's offense is NOT. SEA ranks 29TH in ALL of baseball against RHP in run production AND they're hitting just .227 on the season against righties...good for 30th (DEAD LAST).


The 'pens are a wash statistically (20th and 22nd) but I'll take the DET relievers RIGHT NOW and can't stand the SEA back-end with Rodney closing games...ever. The real bargain is with Detroit today...

Boys had me worried for a minute there. But, Nice job on taking the rubber match.

MY BIG UNIT PLAY - 4 UNIT PLAY-


+4.25 units

[k4ngur13]

a lot of people on that over in philly game I'm opposite

[ShipItToDaddy]

a lot of people on that over in philly game I'm opposite

The over in Philly game ?? I'm confused (not my play)

[ShipItToDaddy]

BOL.. stl and zona nice picks; esp zona.. hope they can follow through later..

I hope so to man. Glad we on the same side.


BOL man!

[trobin31]

NO WRITE UPS-

A's ML - 2 unit play

Angels ML- 1 unit play

Toronto RL- 1 unit play

Toronto/cws Over8.5 runs - 1 unit

Arizona ML- 1 unit

On all these except for oakland and stL, took yanks and cubbies instead. Hope we can at least split and take home the rest

Nice hit on detroit, I tailed ya!! I did hedge with Seattle +325 but ended up in the positive.

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 8 HOU/CLE +1007:10PM
RISK $100 TO WIN $100
If there's ONE thing I've learned over my 15-20 (I'm 30) years watching baseball as a PLAYER and now handicapper/analyst/you-call-it....It's that teams typically RAKE after facing a TOP-tier arm...in this case Corey Kluber (CLE), who tossed a shutout against one of the more dangerous offenses (#2) in ALL of baseball, the Houston Astros. Last night was embarrassing, but it looks like there WILL be ample scoring opportunities tonight.

First, Trevor Bauer, the RHP for the Indians...he's got a fluke 30 at-bats under his belt against this Astros lineup and they haven't hit him...but having time to study/adjust, the Astros will AT LEAST contribute to the shelling I see coming for HOU starter, Dan Strailey tonight. Bauer has had his best year, but that's NOT saying much and he's still prone to giving up runs in bunches and has allowed 13 in his last 3 games...so he's not cruising right now and will see a PISSED Astros lineup.

RHP Dan Strailey has pitched in 1 game and got rocked by a BAD BOS offense allowing 5 runs / 3 walks over 4.2 IP. It's good for a 7.71 ERA and 1.93 WHIP in the small sample..but the projections are bad. The Indians all of the sudden PREFER right-handed pitching and MANY of these CLE hitters have seen Strailey (26 total ABs)...so obviously runs should come.

Bullpens performed LAST night which just makes it ALL the more probable we get "lesser" arms TONIGHT in relief with 11 guys being used over the L2 nights out of the 'pens. Last night WAS flat...but they did score 13 the night prior and we don't have a Cy Young arm going tonight...OVER.

didn't get the run support from Houston. 4-2 ball game

loser

[ShipItToDaddy]

STL CARDINALS +1008:05PM
RISK $100 TO WIN $100
Again...a strange..but telling price here with the Cardinals sending their ACE, Michael Wacha to the hill looking to SPLIT this road series with the Cubbies after losing B2B games the L2 nights. I'm expecting BIG things from a guy I love and KNOW can't be held down...RH Michael Wacha. While on the flip-side, I'm NOT expecting much different from a struggling Cubs righty, Jason Hammel over the last month...not to mention he's 0-3 against STL in his L3 starts against them.

It's a RH vs. RH matchup tonight and that FAR and away favors the Cardinals...EVEN on the road. STL is ranked #3 in MLB and #1 in the NL when it comes to AVG against righties...while CHC comes in at an abysmal #28 against RHP...QUITE the mismatch there.

Wacha is the real deal (win or lose) with a 2.68 road ERA and most recently held CHC to 1 run on 6 hits towards the end of June...while Hammel was roughed up in his last outing against STL...and it was against this current STL lineup too...which is a big +.

Bullpens are NO comparison and I just cannot see STL losing 3 of 4 with all the advantages in their favor here tonight. They're not the same away from "Baseball Heaven"...but the Cubs aren't "great" at home and I like the BETTER team to prevail.

Speechless... But I'll take it

winner winner

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 9 ARI/TEX -1158:10PM
RISK $115 TO WIN $100
I REALLY liked this # last night...but knew based on the cold TEX bats of late that this # would drop a bit with Hellickson playing well too….but that doesn’t mean I don’t think this game has potential fireworks involved and we see 10 runs minimum in all likelihood tonight...and I’m much happier with OVER 9 than grabbing it last night at 9.5…

Like I always say...we need a 4-4 game here at a minimum and it’s NOT hard to make a case for scoring tonight. Jeremy Hellickson has been pitching WELL above his career averages...with a 5+ ERA and 1.35 WHIP this year DESPITE some good showings...ALL that tells me is he’s prone to BAD games...and Texas has the potential to pound him...as they’ve seen him plenty from his time in the AL (TB). Specifically, the Rangers have hit .345 against him with a decent 60 AB sample size...more impressive… a 1.079 OPS. Hellickson has struggled on the road (5.32 ERA) AND more in his night starts (5.73 ERA) which is a bad combo over here.

Left-hander Josh Harrison gets the call for the Rangers tonight and with him coming off the DL and not expected to last long...it’s GO time with the near guarantee that we get BOTH bullpens QUICK tonight. The D’Backs offense is legit and they’re ranked 5th in MLB against LHP when it comes to AVG....and I’m confident they get their 4 runs too.


BOTH bullpens are BOTTOM 5 quality and I would flat-out be stunned to see this game stay UNDER again after last night’s game played out the way it did…. They get back to scoring runs tonight….

7-4 Diamond backs


Winner winner

[larry040681]

STL CARDINALS +1008:05PM
RISK $100 TO WIN $100
Again...a strange..but telling price here with the Cardinals sending their ACE, Michael Wacha to the hill looking to SPLIT this road series with the Cubbies after losing B2B games the L2 nights. I'm expecting BIG things from a guy I love and KNOW can't be held down...RH Michael Wacha. While on the flip-side, I'm NOT expecting much different from a struggling Cubs righty, Jason Hammel over the last month...not to mention he's 0-3 against STL in his L3 starts against them.

It's a RH vs. RH matchup tonight and that FAR and away favors the Cardinals...EVEN on the road. STL is ranked #3 in MLB and #1 in the NL when it comes to AVG against righties...while CHC comes in at an abysmal #28 against RHP...QUITE the mismatch there.

Wacha is the real deal (win or lose) with a 2.68 road ERA and most recently held CHC to 1 run on 6 hits towards the end of June...while Hammel was roughed up in his last outing against STL...and it was against this current STL lineup too...which is a big +.

Bullpens are NO comparison and I just cannot see STL losing 3 of 4 with all the advantages in their favor here tonight. They're not the same away from "Baseball Heaven"...but the Cubs aren't "great" at home and I like the BETTER team to prevail.

don't forget to mention Peralta..

[ShipItToDaddy]

TB RAYS +120*2:10PM
RISK $90 TO WIN $100
I'm fading the "new look" Royals tonight after watching Alex Gordon seriously injure his knee while also expecting Moustakas to remain OUT. Factor in a LOT of question marks around RHP Yordano Ventura...and I'm confidently taking a SURE to be pissed-off Rays team.

First, Ventura has been on the DL and I've read some VERY concerning comments about his health...mainly that he's not even sure he's "better" and has been dealing with some strange issues like numbness in his fingers...SCARY stuff and no reason to lay -140 on the banged up Royals today...

RHP Nick Karns has been an entirely different SP when away from Tropicana field and that's a GOOD thing for us as his HOME #s are terrible. His DAY #s...impressive with a 1.50 ERA in 36.2 IP...and with the Royals having NO experience against him? I'll take the bargain "wrong team favored" in the early going at +120...

[ShipItToDaddy]

Sorry busy with work: late play.


OVER 7.5 OAK/NYY -115*1:05PM
RISK $115 TO WIN $100
I can ABSOLUTELY see this # moving UP overnight or prior to 1st pitch and so I'll put this out NOW. (1AM) We've got 2 starting pitchers that should have their hands FULL and 2 bullpens that have more question marks than anything else...combined with a SMALL ballpark and "down" starters of late...I couldn't pass.

First, I'll cover OAK RHP, Jesse Chavez, as he completely shut down this NYY lineup in May...the problem I see... it's gonna be TOUGH to duplicate and Chavez has been a totally different pitcher over his L3 starts...and going on the road (his weakness) against the #2 "home" offense in ALL of baseball? I'm expecting scoring EARLY. Chavez is 4-8 for a reason and it's NOT all on his bullpen (which sucks)...pitching in the Coliseum HELPS...but Chavez on the road is nothing great with a 3.78 ERA (more than 1-run higher) and as I mentioned...he's been struggling.

Tanaka is a good RHP...but he has also been struggling BADLY for a SP of his caliber. His last 3 starts have all SOARED over the # while he's allowed 23 hits and 16 runs with 5 walks...which is most concerning. OAK has solid #s against Masahiro in their brief experience and I'm banking on some offense early THURS... and with how little I trust the A's bullpen...I'd bet on seeing 2+ after the 7th inning IF we get a solid lineup...

[44 Mag]

Sorry busy with work: late play.


OVER 7.5 OAK/NYY -115*1:05PM
RISK $115 TO WIN $100
I can ABSOLUTELY see this # moving UP overnight or prior to 1st pitch and so I'll put this out NOW. (1AM) We've got 2 starting pitchers that should have their hands FULL and 2 bullpens that have more question marks than anything else...combined with a SMALL ballpark and "down" starters of late...I couldn't pass.

First, I'll cover OAK RHP, Jesse Chavez, as he completely shut down this NYY lineup in May...the problem I see... it's gonna be TOUGH to duplicate and Chavez has been a totally different pitcher over his L3 starts...and going on the road (his weakness) against the #2 "home" offense in ALL of baseball? I'm expecting scoring EARLY. Chavez is 4-8 for a reason and it's NOT all on his bullpen (which sucks)...pitching in the Coliseum HELPS...but Chavez on the road is nothing great with a 3.78 ERA (more than 1-run higher) and as I mentioned...he's been struggling.
Tanaka is a good RHP...but he has also been struggling BADLY for a SP of his caliber. His last 3 starts have all SOARED over the # while he's allowed 23 hits and 16 runs with 5 walks...which is most concerning. OAK has solid #s against Masahiro in their brief experience and I'm banking on some offense early THURS... and with how little I trust the A's bullpen...I'd bet on seeing 2+ after the 7th inning IF we get a solid lineup...

On the same play brother BOL.

[ShipItToDaddy]

My man.. Let's get this Mag!

bol to you and all your picks today!

[ShipItToDaddy]

ATL BRAVES -1108:40PM
RISK $110 TO WIN $100
I may expand on this later today...but I'm grabbing the BEST early # on the Braves in this matchup as I just can't see the Rockies keeping up with the ATL bats...the #11 team in MLB vs. RHP and a team that prior to losing 1B Freeman to the DL...was ranked inside the TOP 5 vs. RHP.

On the flip side, the COL offense has been AWFUL against left-handed pitching all year...scoring just 74 runs...good for 25th (out of 30)...AKA NOT impressive.

Alex Wood has really leveled out his "stuff" and he's FAR more confident than how he started out his 2015 campaign..that's for sure. I am expecting the Braves to POUND one of the WORST RH pitchers in the National League...maybe THE worst... Kyle Kendrick. The Braves know Kendrick VERY well from his time in Philadelphia and they've hit him well over his career and at Coors?

We ALSO get the better bullpen...although possibly only by a small margin with COL ranking DEAD LAST (30th) when it comes to relief pitching...allowing over 140 runs in relief this year...with a SKY high 4.65 ERA. It would be a disappointment to see ATL not out-hit the Rockies tonight...

[ShipItToDaddy]

My numbers show a slight edge on dickey and Toronto ML today.

should I or should I not place this bet. Hmmm.

[ShipItToDaddy]

TB RAYS +120*2:10PM
RISK $90 TO WIN $100
I'm fading the "new look" Royals tonight after watching Alex Gordon seriously injure his knee while also expecting Moustakas to remain OUT. Factor in a LOT of question marks around RHP Yordano Ventura...and I'm confidently taking a SURE to be pissed-off Rays team.

First, Ventura has been on the DL and I've read some VERY concerning comments about his health...mainly that he's not even sure he's "better" and has been dealing with some strange issues like numbness in his fingers...SCARY stuff and no reason to lay -140 on the banged up Royals today...

RHP Nick Karns has been an entirely different SP when away from Tropicana field and that's a GOOD thing for us as his HOME #s are terrible. His DAY #s...impressive with a 1.50 ERA in 36.2 IP...and with the Royals having NO experience against him? I'll take the bargain "wrong team favored" in the early going at +120...

Already a 3-0 lead (royals)


fawk.. I see where this is going :/

[44 Mag]

My man.. Let's get this Mag!

bol to you and all your picks today!

[ShipItToDaddy]

On the same play brother BOL.

Thanks for making your 28th error of the year (6-2 Nyy)


winner winner!

[trobin31]

Nice over there suhn

[ShipItToDaddy]

CLE INDIANS -1207:10PM
RISK $120 TO WIN $100
This is a STRONG play in my book for a number of reasons...but none better really than FADING Astros LHP Brett Oberholtzer. The general public has certainly caught up with the Houston Astros by now in how “talented” they really are...AND with the general public being “spoon-fed” how BAD the Indians are NOW against left-handed pitching...you know for sure there’s definitely some cash coming in on HOU today...and I couldn’t disagree more.

Oberholtzer has been CRACKED by the Indians this season… 382 BA (in a limited sample size)...but when you look back further, these Indian hitters have been pummeling Obertholzer for years...go look it up...but WELL over .280 BA annually...so they’re MORE than familiar. His season #’s give us confidence obviously (4.32 ERA / 1.59 WHIP) as well and when you dig into Cody Anderson’s starts….I’m pumped.



Anderson (0.76 ERA / 0.63 WHIP) is showing off of late ripping through some VERY talented offensive lineups. In his 1st couple games, Anderson dispatched the TB Rays TWICE...with little to no issues whatsoever. THEN….in a following start, he threw just 92 pitches over 8 innings against the PIRATES in dominating fashion...so THAT’s why I’m confident tonight up against a suddenly flat Astros lineup….who habitually struggle with pitchers they haven’t seen AND/OR exhibit “elite” stuff and Anderson meets BOTH.

The Astros ‘pen hasn’t been pretty ugly of late while the Indians relievers have been VERY steady and at home….I’m not expecting trouble. I see CLE plating 6-7 tonight minimum… let’s take the home team against a familiar foe (Obertholtzer).

[ShipItToDaddy]

Nice over there suhn

Thanks man! how's your picks doing so far?

What's your thoughts on LAD RL tonight??


bol

[trobin31]

I don't seem to do well on runline but it looks really really good. I'm going with over in Seattle for the night cap.