MLB_ picks

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 7 TOR/CWS -1208:10PM
RISK $120 TO WIN $100
I should have trusted myself sooner and fire away this morning...but the STRONG line movement gives me THAT much more confidence in this game FLYING over the posted total of 7 tonight.

Let's talk about PERCEPTION first...anytime you get LHP Chris Sale taking the mound for the White Sox...the MASSES will flock to back the UNDER and possibly the Sox with Buehrle taking the hill for TOR...but I'm actually seeing the potential for fireworks and will bank on this game seeing 3-3.

We've got Buehrle vs. Sale and I just cannot ignore the MASSIVE pitch counts Sale has been asked to deliver going ALL the way back to MAY! To dive deeper... Sale has gone OVER 109 pitches in literally EVERY start in May and June...which is 11 consecutive starts with him logging BIG pitch counts...and while it's Sale...he's not super-human.

On the other side, ex-White Sox RHP Mark Buehrle gets the call tonight and I fully expect the Sox offense to get their 3 runs in this game tonight....via starter OR either bullpen...which I'm NOT at all confident in...

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 8 MIL/ATL -1058:10PM
RISK $105 TO WIN $100
Riding the RED HOT Brewers offense here against a starter in Matt Wisler that I don't expect to be "stretched" long in this game and thus I expect MORE late offense from Milwaukee against a really BAD Braves bullpen...ranked in the BOTTOM 5 in earned runs in one of the worst seasons for relief pitching I've ever seen...

The Brewers are hammering RHP and they're STILL the TOP offense over the last week/month for certain...home OR away. MIL plated 6 runs last night against I'm certain the Brew Crew get their 4 tonight. The great news though...we haven't even discussed Kyle Lohse...the struggling Brewers starter. He's thrown to a gross 6.24 ERA this year with a 1.38 WHIP....and a 5-9 record overall...so for a Braves team that has cracked right-handers, #9 in batting average...despite a BAD last week without Freeman.

The reality is Freeman or NOT...these Bullpens are pathetically bad and I'd be shocked to NOT get 8 minimum here...

[trobin31]

I like the atl/mil o8, not sure if I want to play atl tt o3.5 instead though. Just got a bad feeling this wisler kid could be tough for Milwaukee the first go round.

[44 Mag]

Like them both there young man. Sale could set a record tonight??? Toronto can hit. BOL.

[ShipItToDaddy]

I like the atl/mil o8, not sure if I want to play atl tt o3.5 instead though. Just got a bad feeling this wisler kid could be tough for Milwaukee the first go round.

Mr. trobin

Go with your first instinct.. As I discussed in my write up, the relief pitching will get them over the 8 runs needed.

Like them both there young man. Sale could set a record tonight??? Toronto can hit. BOL.

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Sale is a beast cant argue that.. but I strongly believe that this could easily be a 3-3 ball game especially if and when it gets to either teams bullpen (which i'm NOT at all confident in)

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 7.5 PHI/LAD -10510:10PM
RISK $105 TO WIN $100
*PITCHING CHANGE - GARCIA (R) in for SURKAMP (L)
I’ve been riding the Phillies / OVER combination for a couple of weeks now after getting some “info” regarding the effort expected from this Phillies lineup for the remainder of the season and it has shown CRYSTAL CLEAR… Specifically, the team has made the decision to not “compete” if that makes any sense. They’ll be leaving relievers IN when they might otherwise be lifted from the game and we’ve seen this multiple times over the last week or so…they WANT to be the worst team in the league and I think the Dodgers take out some of their anger tonight at home.

The Phils starters are BAD with the exception of Cole Hamels and tonight, I'm fully expecting Sean O'Sullivan to continue his 2015 fireworks show (1-6, 5.76 ERA, 1.58 WHIP). I'm surprised to see LA having logged some ABs against him...which only helps us here too. The Dodgers are starting LHP Eric Surkamp and while PHI won't have a track record against him, I DO expect them to continue swinging the bats well.


The Phillies BULLPEN is our biggest opportunity here and if you've watched ANY of the PHI relievers lately...they DEFINITELY will be involved EARLY (thanks O'Sullivan) and will certainly surrender 4-5 if you ask me. This game should FLY over tonight...

[trobin31]

Almost there, I grabbed the atl o3.5, and, gm ov8

Nice call on houston, I over-thought that one.

Hoping for an over in phi/lad and under in San Fran and Seattle to close the night.

I'll be going to the ballpark for cueto and scherzer game tomorrow and I can't imagine many runs will be scored

[ShipItToDaddy]

HOU ASTROS -1057:10PM
RISK $105 TO WIN $100
I've got a TON of respect for Astros ace Dallas Keuchel and not so much of that same allure for Indians arm Carlos Carrasco. I'm well aware of the NEAR no-hitter and his recent success...but to have LH Keuchel as an underdog with the Indians struggling so badly against left-handers over the last 2 months....it makes NO sense and I don't see a trap here...

Keuchel (10-3, 2.03 ERA) is off 2 dominant performances against the Yankees and ROYALS...no chopped liver there. He's allowed ONE home run to a left-handed batter ALL year...and it just so happens this Indians lineup is LOADED with lefties...who pretty much ALL struggle to hit Keuchel.

I'm not goo-goo over Carrasco's NEAR no-hitter for a couple reasons...but mainly because it was the ICE COLD Rays that couldn't hit AND he tossed 124 pitches in an effort to get the no-no...so I highly doubt he "brings it" tonight against a DANGEROUS Astros lineup.

I love the Astros 'pen (#5 overall) as well here IF Keuchel can't go deep while I'm almost certain Carrasco only lasts 6 MAX following the BIG pitch count in his last.

have faith in "dallas Keuchel"


Winner winner


1-0 on the day

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 7 TOR/CWS -1208:10PM
RISK $120 TO WIN $100
I should have trusted myself sooner and fire away this morning...but the STRONG line movement gives me THAT much more confidence in this game FLYING over the posted total of 7 tonight.

Let's talk about PERCEPTION first...anytime you get LHP Chris Sale taking the mound for the White Sox...the MASSES will flock to back the UNDER and possibly the Sox with Buehrle taking the hill for TOR...but I'm actually seeing the potential for fireworks and will bank on this game seeing 3-3.

We've got Buehrle vs. Sale and I just cannot ignore the MASSIVE pitch counts Sale has been asked to deliver going ALL the way back to MAY! To dive deeper... Sale has gone OVER 109 pitches in literally EVERY start in May and June...which is 11 consecutive starts with him logging BIG pitch counts...and while it's Sale...he's not super-human.

On the other side, ex-White Sox RHP Mark Buehrle gets the call tonight and I fully expect the Sox offense to get their 3 runs in this game tonight....via starter OR either bullpen...which I'm NOT at all confident in...

Fell 1 run shy of a push. 4-2 CWS.


loser loser

1-1 on the day

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 7.5 PHI/LAD -10510:10PM
RISK $105 TO WIN $100
*PITCHING CHANGE - GARCIA (R) in for SURKAMP (L)
I’ve been riding the Phillies / OVER combination for a couple of weeks now after getting some “info” regarding the effort expected from this Phillies lineup for the remainder of the season and it has shown CRYSTAL CLEAR… Specifically, the team has made the decision to not “compete” if that makes any sense. They’ll be leaving relievers IN when they might otherwise be lifted from the game and we’ve seen this multiple times over the last week or so…they WANT to be the worst team in the league and I think the Dodgers take out some of their anger tonight at home.

The Phils starters are BAD with the exception of Cole Hamels and tonight, I'm fully expecting Sean O'Sullivan to continue his 2015 fireworks show (1-6, 5.76 ERA, 1.58 WHIP). I'm surprised to see LA having logged some ABs against him...which only helps us here too. The Dodgers are starting LHP Eric Surkamp and while PHI won't have a track record against him, I DO expect them to continue swinging the bats well.


The Phillies BULLPEN is our biggest opportunity here and if you've watched ANY of the PHI relievers lately...they DEFINITELY will be involved EARLY (thanks O'Sullivan) and will certainly surrender 4-5 if you ask me. This game should FLY over tonight...

Got ourselves a early win only took 3 innings


winner winner


2-1 on the day

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 8 MIL/ATL -1058:10PM
RISK $105 TO WIN $100
Riding the RED HOT Brewers offense here against a starter in Matt Wisler that I don't expect to be "stretched" long in this game and thus I expect MORE late offense from Milwaukee against a really BAD Braves bullpen...ranked in the BOTTOM 5 in earned runs in one of the worst seasons for relief pitching I've ever seen...

The Brewers are hammering RHP and they're STILL the TOP offense over the last week/month for certain...home OR away. MIL plated 6 runs last night against I'm certain the Brew Crew get their 4 tonight. The great news though...we haven't even discussed Kyle Lohse...the struggling Brewers starter. He's thrown to a gross 6.24 ERA this year with a 1.38 WHIP....and a 5-9 record overall...so for a Braves team that has cracked right-handers, #9 in batting average...despite a BAD last week without Freeman.

The reality is Freeman or NOT...these Bullpens are pathetically bad and I'd be shocked to NOT get 8 minimum here...

I dont know how the game didn't go over.. It was definetly on pace for it.

ill take the push

2 wins - 1 lose - 1 push - for the day


+ 4.5 units

[ShipItToDaddy]

Almost there, I grabbed the atl o3.5, and, gm ov8

Nice call on houston, I over-thought that one.

Hoping for an over in phi/lad and under in San Fran and Seattle to close the night.

I'll be going to the ballpark for cueto and scherzer game tomorrow and I can't imagine many runs will be scored

Yea Houston was a nice call.

Your're good on the over in Phil/lad and the under in San Fran looks great! Close one on the Seattle.

Thats going to be a great game to watch tomorrow. Enjoy. I will be looking at the under for that game a little deeper tomorrow.

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 8.5 ARI/TEX -1158:05PM
RISK $115 TO WIN $100
I wanted to get this play OUT as soon as possible only because I feel like this # SHOULD clip 9+. I'm WELL aware of how solid Yovani Gallardo has been throwing for the Rangers this season and especially of LATE...but I'm not fooled by his CAREER 3.61 ERA and his impressive 26.1 SCORELESS innings streak should come to a halt tonight against a D'Backs lineup that's certainly capable.

Gallardo is just 7-6 on the season for a reason...inconsistency. Is 2.56 ERA indicates a GREAT year...but regression WILL happen and this is a tough spot for these pitchers tonight... Robbie Ray takes the hill for Arizona tonight and we've been DEAD ON when fading him. Ray's #s are STILL skewed at a 2.55 ERA / 1.09 WHIP for a guy with a CAREER 4.82 ERA / 1.41 WHIP...and Ray will continue his slide to mediocrity tonight in a TOUGH place for pitchers in general.

I'm confident we get a 4-4 game here tonight...especially with this matchup featuring 2 BOTTOM 5 bullpens with ARI ranking 25th overall in runs allowed and TEX bringing up the rear at 29th...BAD relief pitching should give us help if we need it late...

[ShipItToDaddy]

20$ cant hurt anyone

7/7/15 2:00pm	$20.89	$315.25		Pending	4 Team Parlay
					Pending	7/7/15 10:10pm MLB Baseball 909 Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Dodgers Over 7 -125* (C Billingsley - R must Start B Anderson - L must Start)
					Pending	7/7/15 7:10pm MLB Baseball 915 Houston Astros +165* vs Cleveland Indians (V Velasquez- R must Start C Kluber - R must Start)
					Pending	7/7/15 8:05pm MLB Baseball 927 Arizona Diamondbacks/Texas Rangers Over 8 -153* (R Ray - L must Start Y Gallardo - R must Start)
					Pending	7/7/15 2:10pm MLB Baseball 933 Tampa Bay Rays +104* vs Kansas City Royals (M Moore - L must Start C Young - R must Start)

FOOD FOR THOUGHT:

THIS SEASON THE INDIANS ARE AN MLB-WORSE 3-14 IN GAMES STARTED BY COREY KLUBER

[trobin31]

Good luck today, I'm on Tampa gm1 too

Gonna head out to see reds/nats batting practice so I'll let you guys know if the ball is flying.

[ShipItToDaddy]

Good luck today, I'm on Tampa gm1 too

Gonna head out to see reds/nats batting practice so I'll let you guys know if the ball is flying.

Mr. Trobin31,

sounds good man. Please do: let me know how reds/Nats. I was waiting for your post/response.


have fun at the game man!

bol as always

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 7 HOU/CLE -1207:10PM
RISK $110 TO WIN $100
It's only a matter of time before the Indians wake up at the plate and leave it up to the general public to name Vincent Velasquez the next dominant young arm...despite his 4.21 ERA / 1.32 WHIP in the early going of his MLB career for Houston. 3 of his first 5 starts have gotten over the # and with the yuppies falling in love with Kluber/Velasquez and the UNDER... It's FADE time.

We only need a 3-3 game here and while CLE has no reps vs. Velasquez...neither have the rest of his opponents this year and for Kluber...he'll be facing this Astros for the 2nd time this season...ONLY a benefit for HOU it would seem. Kluber is impressive, but his pitch counts have been HIGHER lately and I DON'T think CLE runs him into the ground tonight after 112-111-115 pitches in 3 consecutive games.

Velasquez WON'T go deep into this game (avg. 5 IP) and the Astros 'pen has already been used heavily over the last few nights with Keuchel NOT going deep and getting taxed. I'm not fearing either teams relief pitching tonight and I think we see a 3-3 game much sooner than most think...

[trobin31]

Sorry checking in late. I got nats since I'm here, Cincy has jumped in early lead so we'll see but Cincy taking some good cuts and seeing the ball real well so far

[ShipItToDaddy]

OVER 8.5 TOR/CWS -1208:10PM
*DOWN to O/U 8...I’m OK with this move so far...will make an executive decision if something changes...
RISK $120 TO WIN $100
The Jays lost a BRUTAL game last night AND cost us a unit with OVER 7 losing by 1...thanks to a late GIDP by Valencia to end a TOP 9TH rally by Toronto. It hurt bad...and you better this Jays offense will be chomping at the bit to get BACK out there tonight against a MUCH lesser arm in LHP Jose Quintana and it’s bad news for him….with the Blue Jays being the FAR and away BEST offense against LHP in baseball when it comes to batting average hitting 19 points better (.302) than the #2 offense. TOR also hammers the long-ball against LHP with 32 on the year...only trailing the Astros. When you look at the history between TOR and Quintana...it’s not good. The Jays hit him to the tune of .303 with a .825 OPS...and that’s WITH Bautista at just 1-7 against the CWS lefty...

Quintana WAS putting together a solid season...but at 4-7 with a 3.81 ERA and 1.36 WHIP...he’s regressing right back to his normal self (what a surprise)...and with the Jays having EXTRA motivation tonight? You’d be crazy to play the UNDER.


I’m aware of the White Sox offensive struggles and they did it against last night despite WINNING against TOR 4-2...and I know they struggle against LHP…but Felix Doubront is an “exception” to the rule when it comes to splits...and with the vulnerable TOR 'pen, great opportunity here...

[k4ngur13]

i like the write ups ... keep up the good work

[trobin31]

Already on toronto, guess I'll do a little parlay on the over too.

[ShipItToDaddy]

i like the write ups ... keep up the good work

Thank you. At least some one notices.

And will do.

Bol to you and your plays!

[ShipItToDaddy]

Already on toronto, guess I'll do a little parlay on the over too.

Parlays are are the devil. Lol. just something about them. I'm always one game short. (Maybe it's only my luck)

But I would take a poke at the over for sure.

Also, Don't have a write up but im SLAMMING BALTIMORE ORILOES ML!! Maybe my play of the day!!


enjoy the game man! watching it as we speak.

[trobin31]

Yep I like balty, milwaukee, kc, dodgers rl

[ShipItToDaddy]

What is going on today?! You got the Brazilian kid who was brought up from triple A and hits a grand slam for (KC) in the bottom of 9th to beat my (TB) bet. And now we got Sanu from twins hitting his first homer to help give Minn 3-0 lead. You can't make this stuff up.

Come on Baltimore O's.. Let's get some runs!!!

[trobin31]

Yea hoping balty can get some runs then I'm hedging out. I already grabbed reds -2.5 in the 4th so we'll see. Still early but I might be laying some extra on dodgers to make up for any loses. What do you think of Detroit game, keep riding over? Billingsly is a huge gas can so might be worth hitting that one at maximum payout

[ShipItToDaddy]

Yea hoping balty can get some runs then I'm hedging out. I already grabbed reds -2.5 in the 4th so we'll see. Still early but I might be laying some extra on dodgers to make up for any loses. What do you think of Detroit game, keep riding over? Billingsly is a huge gas can so might be worth hitting that one at maximum payout

Yea man, Balty needs to wake up and get some runs.. I took the Detroit over. I'm not stoping till the wheels fall off. How can't you?!

[ShipItToDaddy]

DET TIGERS +100*3:40PM
RISK $400 TO WIN $400
The "average" fan looks at SEA -120 at home with Happ on the mound and thinks...BARGAIN on the Mariners! BUT the reality is the M's are BARELY favored...AT HOME...against the Tigers w/o the BEST HITTER IN BASEBALL...w/ a streaky SP on the mound in Anibal Sanchez. Yet they're STILL ONLY a -120 favorite??? In a "normal" situation... Home team, non-A1 SP opposing them, without BEST player, and sketchy bullpen...my calculations would have SEATTLE -150 or more...

THAT ^^^ is how you've got to think about this game(and about price in general) and I'd be shocked if the sharp $$$ doesn't hammer this "underdog" before 1st pitch. But into the detail...

I'm FADING Mariners LHP JA Happ today for a few reasons...

•Happ is 0-4, 6.13 ERA with 6 HR and 13 walks in 39 IP during the DAY.

•The DET offense ranks #2 against LHP in MLB in AVG (.283) and are TOP 10 in runs scored against lefties AND they're RED HOT.

•The M's offense is NOT. SEA ranks 29TH in ALL of baseball against RHP in run production AND they're hitting just .227 on the season against righties...good for 30th (DEAD LAST).


The 'pens are a wash statistically (20th and 22nd) but I'll take the DET relievers RIGHT NOW and can't stand the SEA back-end with Rodney closing games...ever. The real bargain is with Detroit today...

[trobin31]

Nice write up. Bol today.

I'll be on balty again early so hopefully making up for yesterday.

[GT21Megatron]

0-5 yesterday if you include Orioles and Tampa that you were on also. Can we get an update on the record. Thanks

[ShipItToDaddy]

*BALITMORE VS TWINS UNDER 8*

2 unit bet*

[ShipItToDaddy]

0-5 yesterday if you include Orioles and Tampa that you were on also. Can we get an update on the record. Thanks

Since you know everything I say and do why don't you keep track of my record.. You got your own thread don't you?!

I thought you and I squashed this he said she said stuff. Guess not!

p.s.
0-5 is not correct.. I took Detroit over and I had blue jays also.. But I'm sure you missed that also!!
Why don't you Go play in traffic..

[ShipItToDaddy]

Nice write up. Bol today.

I'll be on balty again early so hopefully making up for yesterday.

I like the under 8 in Baltimore/twins game.

but I'm going to follow my write up and take Balty as well today!

bol Trobin!

[GT21Megatron]

Since you know everything I say and do why don't you keep track of my record.. You got your own thread don't you?!

I thought you and I squashed this he said she said stuff. Guess not!

p.s.
0-5 is not correct.. I took Detroit over and I had blue jays also.. But I'm sure you missed that also!!
Why don't you Go play in traffic..

[NYRin09]

Ignore the trolls. Is the $400 DET bet your max bet? Just wondering your confidence level. Gonna tail!