Posey's Pick Of The Day

[posey]

Not much time to write more, but I gonna lock in:

6/14

Parlay Cards ML + Cubs ML +195

Padres ML +104

Gonna answer tomorrow Larry.

[posey]

will you add extra to win a unit? I would do ML and RL plays just as long as it's within your banroll %..

Got some time, so I can answer nonetheless. No, I will not add to win a unit. I put all plays at 1 unit flat. I have done so for most of my succesful (well the succesful part, I was very bad in the beginning) 'career' and I see no reason to change.

Yeah those were my main concerns. Frisco offense cold at home but have pounded de la Rosa in past pretty hard. And hate taking road teams looking to sweep on get away day.

Far as Chris Young concerned he also pitched a no no pretty much his last start into 7th before getting yanked after giving up 1 hit . Certainly solid that day but I've seen more commanding performances with no hitters and vs better squads than Twinks who aren't hitting right now. He was hit hard several times in that gm though , had a hr saved with great catch and hit he gave up prior to being yanked was couple ft shy of a dinger of top of right wall. Certainly came outta the gate steaming this year but in a couple prior starts to Twins gm he was showing cracks. I would certainly not be surprised from a letdown his way today. Bol!

I really have no clue why Chris Young has been able to keep such good numbers over the past 2 seasons. I can address it only to luck. I haven't seen him too often, but everytime I did he looked very hittable but all the balls were hit right into the direction of a fielder. I have never ever seen a pitcher (since I have been watching bases) that had so much luck like him. Of course there are stretches in which pitchers have more luck, but his streak has been going on for so long its UNREAL. I mean, well, I don't hate him (how should I, I don't know him personally). This guy had lots of success pitching at Petco when he was with the Padres, but on the road he struggled because not many teams have such a big home field like the Padres. On the road he got punished. He is a massive flyball pitcher and of course the BABIP of those guys is lower than the BABIP of groundball pitchers. But nonetheless his BABIP has always been way too low (he has always been lucky) and his LOB% has always been over the top. LOB% is about 70% for the average pitcher and generally it fluctuates a lot. But he had very often quite high LOB% numbers although his stuff is far from elite.
And next to that (of course it is no guarantee but for 99% of the pitchers xFIP and SIERA are very good indicators for the future) Chris Young never had a xFIP below 4.37, most times it hovered around 5.00 +- 0.20. His SIERA has always been quite high too, always at 4.xx and three seasons even 5.xx.
I don't know if it's because he is so large (6 '10).

[posey]

6/14

Parlay Cards ML + Cubs ML +195, Cards PPD, Cubs W, +0.65 u.

Padres ML +104, L, -1.00 u.

Yesterday: 1-1, -0.35 u.
Record: 63-56, 13.61 u.

[posey]

6/15

Braves +156
Parlay Pirates & Astros +146
Mets -115
Nationals +102
Dodgers -101
Brewers -102
Diamondbacks +132
Padres -114
Giants -113

[44 Mag]

6/15

Braves +156
Parlay Pirates & Astros +146
Mets -115
Nationals +102
Dodgers -101
Brewers -102
Diamondbacks +132
Padres -114
Giants -113

Understandable for all, except the Mets. Don't quite get that one. Don't need a 20 paragraph explanation, just curious????

[posey]

Buehrle = Bum.
Mets offense = underrated.
Mets as home favs = 24-6.


That's all.

On pure numbers (some sabers and this shyte) Mets are a 90-wins team with Syndergaard.
Blue Jays only 80-wins team with Buehrle. Despite their offense.
Don't forget, no DH for them.

But well, may be completely off on this one nonetheless lol.

[44 Mag]

Buehrle = Bum.
Mets offense = underrated.
Mets as home favs = 24-6.


That's all.

On pure numbers (some sabers and this shyte) Mets are a 90-win team with Syndergaard.
Blue Jays only 80-win team with Buehrle.
Don't forget, no DH for them.

Very well. Thanks for the info. Don't take my question the wrong way.

[twestacott]

Understandable for all, except the Mets. Don't quite get that one. Don't need a 20 paragraph explanation, just curious????

When you look at Buehrle's sabermetrics it all points to a pitcher in regression. K/9 is down while HR/FB is way up indicating he is either losing something on the fastball or is leaving his pitches up. Syndergaard on the other hand showing great control with high k/9 and low BB/9. Buerhle is also 0-3 career against the Mets.

When you combine all that it points to Buehrle being outmatched by Syndergaard at this point in his career. I just cant bet against the Jays until the streak is over and they show some signs of coming back down to earth. Hope this helps

[44 Mag]

When you look at Buehrle's sabermetrics it all points to a pitcher in regression. K/9 is down while HR/FB is way up indicating he is either losing something on the fastball or is leaving his pitches up. Syndergaard on the other hand showing great control with high k/9 and low BB/9. Buerhle is also 0-3 career against the Mets.

When you combine all that it points to Buehrle being outmatched by Syndergaard at this point in his career. I just cant bet against the Jays until the streak is over and they show some signs of coming back down to earth. Hope this helps

I took Toronto TT over 3.5, that's it. Hope it cashes. When I make these total bets, I really don't care who wins, just want my totals to cash, but I do thank you both for the info.

[twestacott]

I took Toronto TT over 3.5, that's it. Hope it cashes. When I make these total bets, I really don't care who wins, just want my totals to cash, but I do thank you both for the info.

As I mentioned before its tough to bet against a team on an 11 game win streak coming off a 13 run performance.

[RollinDo]

Mags - just take Toronto ML already!!! Enough with your cover - up play on Toronto TT.
You know you want to take them. Do it! Do it!

[baazigar]

doubt the weather cooperates for the TOR/NYM without delays FYI

[posey]

Very well. Thanks for the info. Don't take my question the wrong way.

Why should I? You haven't done anything wrong as long as I know you. :

As I mentioned before its tough to bet against a team on an 11 game win streak coming off a 13 run performance.

Don't care for the 13 runs or the streak too much to be honest.

Since 2006, teams with...
- 9 W in a row: 34-27
- 10 W in a row: 16-18
- 11 W in a row: 5-10 (like Jays today)
- 12 W in a row: 1-4

The Braves of '13 were the only team in recent history to carry a longer winning streak than 12 in a row (they won 14 straight).

[44 Mag]

Mags - just take Toronto ML already!!! Enough with your cover - up play on Toronto TT.
You know you want to take them. Do it! Do it!

I am NOT GOING AGAINST THESE TWO GUYS !!!!!

[posey]

I never had any doubt about that but why do so many guys think you are on TOR? I was already wondering in your thread about that, too lol.

[tennis005]

Posey ..what's ur thoughts on lackey tonight as it got rained out yesterday

[posey]

Sorry was sleeping. Would've backed up Lackey.No way to go around him at home.

Mets.

[posey]

6/15

Braves +156, W, +1.56 u.
Parlay Pirates & Astros +146, W, +1.46 u.
Mets -115, W, +0.87 u.
Nationals +102, L, -1.00 u.
Dodgers -101, L, -1.00 u.
Brewers -102, L, -1.00 u.
Diamondbacks +132, W, +1.32 u.
Padres -114, L, 1.00 u.
Giants -113, L, -1.00 u.

As/Padres not over yet but count it as a loss since As are 9-1 in the bot 9th.

Yesterday: 4-5, +0.21 u.
Record: 67-61, +13.82 u.

[posey]

6/16

Braves +145
Nationals +114
Brewers +104
Dbacks +171
Parlay Pirates + & Dodgers +174
Cardinals -1 -125
Phillies +200
Cubs -1 +110
Marlins +104

[CARD COMPLETE]

[posey]

Some facts for today:
- Twins are 2-8 when Gibson starts after he threw at least 105 pitches in his previous start (he threw 117 vs KCR on 6/10), Twins allowed 5.7 on average in those (opposed to 4.0 when he threw less than 105 in his previous start)
- Cardinals are 14-7 with Wacha at home

[GONNA CONTINUE WITH THAT]

[Big Bear]

6/16

Braves +145
Nationals +114
Brewers +104
Dbacks +171
Parlay Pirates + & Dodgers +174
Cardinals -1 -125

Waiting for Indians/Cubs odds, Cubs may become a play, too.

[posey]

Wow, Braves even at +156 now, didn't expect that.

And I am really thinking about taking Phillies ML. I know they can't hit but at +200 it's becoming a joke since Tillman has been doing very bad this season. Tillman shouldn't be -220 against any team in the league right now.

Also thinking about taking the Marlins as they are +104 right now. Phelps or Eovaldi is a coinflip more or less and the Marlins lineup isn't worse than the Yankees lineup without a DH.

Perhaps I'll add Cubs -1 to the list of my plays, Bauer had lots of problems with his command lately.


To sum it up what I think about the games and/or where the value is with current odds (***=massive value, **=good value, *=value):
- MIN/STL*
- COL*/HOU (but nobet for me since HOU's starter without enough starts)
- OAK/SDP* (but nobet for me since SDP sacked its coach)
- SEA/SFG (no value)
- ATL*/BOS
- PHI**/BAL
- CHS/PIT**
- CIN/DET** (but nobet for me since DET's starter without enough starts)
- TOR***/NYM (but nobet for me since TOR's starter without enough starts)
- WSH*/TBR
- LAD***/TEX
- CLE/CHC**
- KCR/MIL**
- ARI*/LAA
- NYY/MIA*


EDIT:
Card for today is complete, look at post #264.

[RollinDo]

Looks good Posey...thanks for the insight...gives me a headache sometimes, but I can pick and choose what I want...you do it to gather all your thoughts and to help other posters.

[posey]

No problem, man. If there are any questions please feel free to ask. You can also say if you want a long or short answer.

[RollinDo]

No problem, man. If there are any questions please feel free to ask. You can also say if you want a long or short answer.

Perfect...thanks

[MikeyD323]

Lets go Cards!!!!

[posey]

Yap! I don't like 'em, but they are profitable more often than not.

[Cordoba25]

Wow, Braves even at +156 now, didn't expect that.

And I am really thinking about taking Phillies ML. I know they can't hit but at +200 it's becoming a joke since Tillman has been doing very bad this season. Tillman shouldn't be -220 against any team in the league right now.

Also thinking about taking the Marlins as they are +104 right now. Phelps or Eovaldi is a coinflip more or less and the Marlins lineup isn't worse than the Yankees lineup without a DH.

Perhaps I'll add Cubs -1 to the list of my plays, Bauer had lots of problems with his command lately.


To sum it up what I think about the games and/or where the value is with current odds (***=massive value, **=good value, *=value):
- MIN/STL*
- COL*/HOU (but nobet for me since HOU's starter without enough starts)
- OAK/SDP* (but nobet for me since SDP sacked its coach)
- SEA/SFG (no value)
- ATL*/BOS
- PHI**/BAL
- CHS/PIT**
- CIN/DET** (but nobet for me since DET's starter without enough starts)
- TOR***/NYM (but nobet for me since TOR's starter without enough starts)
- WSH*/TBR
- LAD***/TEX
- CLE/CHC**
- KCR/MIL**
- ARI*/LAA
- NYY/MIA*


EDIT:
Card for today is complete, look at post #264.

Love this format. As someone who values your MLB insight, thx for posting this.

[posey]

Oh if you like it, I can keep on doing it. Really no problem at all.

[Cordoba25]

I think it's a cool little set-up.

Yea man, if it's not a burden on you it's most definitley appreciated!

[nickmo198]

Hate to nag I've been following u on picks to check mine my strongest plays for today was cards/sf and halos I even have a 3 gamer 65 wins 220. Can you explain why you really like the dodgers? They are an amazing home team and on the road have been known to drop duds. Your 1 star on Arizona I think is clearly for value and the fact they are hot but would love to know before I bet dodgers

[nickmo198]

Vegas is absolutely destroying the dodge as well I feel like I'm missing something here :/

[posey]

Horrible night, strange results everywhere but I played too many games nonetheless. Evaluation of yesterday will follow throughout the day.

Nickmo, it was because of Chi Chi Gonzalez. This guy is not a good major league starter, but only lucky as hell.

[kwramsey2]

Sorry man but I didn't believe in chi Chi either but the guy is solid!! Until proven otherwise I'm a believer from here on out. I know I won't waste my money betting against him.

[posey]

Believe what you want, no offense, but this guy is not solid. This guy is lucky. Nothing else. You can carry luck over a few games but not over the course of a whole season. Chi Chi has only pitched a little more than 20 IP. His stats clearly show his weaknesses and they will be visible soon because hitters will get to him.

If he was solid then he wouldn't have to rely on a BABIP below .200 (league average is around .300 for your info) and a LOB% of 95% (league average is around 70%). Noone can keep up a BABIP of below .200 or a LOB% of nearly 100%. His BB% is higher than his K% and you say he is solid? Okay, as I said, no offense, but pitching like he does is far from being solid IMO.

I will bet against him on and on for sure.