Posey's Pick Of The Day

[posey]

Record: 59-51, +14.77 u.

6/13

Early leans:
Red Sox
Rangers
Pirates
Indians
Astros
Mets
Rays
Cubs
Padres


Bets on those teams may come throughout the day depending on line-movement, lineups and further research. Perhaps adding other teams as well.

[posey]

Getting the first ones in. Don't wanna wait longer as I fear dropping odds (and I expect at least 4-5 odds from below which will be worse in a few hours).
Gonna get back to bet 1 u flat, I hate those calculations which are necessary to hit exactly 1 unit to win.
Also gonna pick some slightly -odds, too. It makes no sense to not play bets which I have enough confidence in, only because the odds are not +money.

Another day with lots of -1 plays seems to be coming up.

Plays:
Red Sox -1 +101
Rangers -1 +120
Pirates -1.5 -107
Indians ML -105
Astros -1 -106
Mets -1 -102
Rays -1 -116
Padres +1 +106
Cards - 1 -102


[CARD COMPLETE]

[VegasPlayer]

Like to use the Pirates as a hedge, but they (or the Phillies) can't hit a beach ball with a cricket bat right now.

[posey]

O'Sullivan is O'Sullivan. Perfect pitcher to get out of a funk from an opposing team's point of view.

[BeanTownClown88]

Good stuff Posey...will be at the red Sox game today, after last night's disaster I hope there's still a little will to live from them lol

[posey]

Yeah for sure, I think Buchholz will bring his stuff today, although I don't like betting on him normally. But the one guy I like to bet against the most is RA Dickey.

Have fun out there!

[mitch51]

Getting the first ones in. Don't wanna wait longer as I fear dropping odds (and I expect at least 4-5 odds from below which will be worse in a few hours).
Gonna get back to bet 1 u flat, I hate those calculations which are necessary to hit exactly 1 unit to win.
Also gonna pick some slightly -odds, too. It makes no sense to not play bets which I have enough confidence in, only because the odds are not +money.

Another day with lots of -1 plays seems to be coming up.

Plays:
Red Sox -1 +101
Rangers -1 +120
Pirates -1.5 -107
Indians ML -105
Astros -1 -106
Mets -1 -102
Rays -1 -116
Padres +1 +106


[maybe more to come]

Posey is right. You have to take a game if you think you can cash a ticket. I bet one game yesterday, a -105 for God's sake. A fave of all things. But this year you gotta do what you gotta do. With a fave, well I ain't got much experience with them. But I'm not gonna bet a unit, I'm gonna bet to win a unit.

You should be punished somehow when you bet a fave. This year is ridiculous.

[mitch51]

Good stuff Posey...will be at the red Sox game today, after last night's disaster I hope there's still a little will to live from them lol

Have fun at the game. Better luck today. Gonna be another over I think. I bet Toronto yesterday because their bats are so hot, but I ain't going there again today. Drink a beer or three for me.

[BeanTownClown88]

Have fun at the game. Better luck today. Gonna be another over I think. I bet Toronto yesterday because their bats are so hot, but I ain't going there again today. Drink a beer or three for me.

Thanks guys! Will put a few down in your honor for sure..like fading dickey too..just hope clay has a quiet first inning then the Sox should be golden lol

[44 Mag]

Thanks guys! Will put a few down in your honor for sure..like fading dickey too..just hope clay has a quiet first inning then the Sox should be golden lol

Brother, take a cab to Fenway, it's cheaper than parking your car at one of those gas stations for 50.00 to 100.00 LOL.

[posey]

Posey is right. You have to take a game if you think you can cash a ticket. I bet one game yesterday, a -105 for God's sake. A fave of all things. But this year you gotta do what you gotta do. With a fave, well I ain't got much experience with them. But I'm not gonna bet a unit, I'm gonna bet to win a unit.

You should be punished somehow when you bet a fave. This year is ridiculous.

It is indeed and I noticed that one more time today when I looked further into my spread sheet I keep on my PC. Before each day I write my leans into it including the odds (of course my plays, too, but I seperate that). You all should know by now that I hate betting on games which have too much juice or favs in general more or less (odds-wise) and normally I don't have any leans on big favs because of that. The thing is that I had 21 leans on odds of bigger than -125 (in the range of -127 to even -204) thusfar, nearly none of it was a play for me on the ML in the end (besides 2 or 3) because I hate them odds. Of course the sample size is rather small. The average odd of those games would have been -151. In the end I would have won 15 and only 6 would have been losers. This would have added up for about +4 units. So if I had bet them all I would be up about +19 units instead of about +15. Not taking the money was rather dumb looking backwards.

I don't know why this year is so strange. I don't want to rage about this season or whatever, since I am up a lot but all in all this season occurs to me as very unorthodox. Lots of bullpens blow it, then you fade a team 2 times in a row because it's cold and they lose both, next time you back a team which is hot and it loses 2 in a row, then starters who have very good seasons start to blow it out of nothing, lineups translate from the best hitters in the universe to the worst hitters ever in the span of 2 games and lots of other things. I watch a lot of games and I can't remember scratching my head as much as I did this year.

Your thread is a perfect example of bad luck IMO. As far as I remember you picked a lot of games which not only I agreed with, but looked rather good until the late innings and then the bullpen collapsed, sometimes blowing very huuuuuge leads.

[44 Mag]

It is indeed and I noticed that one more time today when I looked further into my spread sheet I keep on my PC. Before each day I write my leans into it including the odds (of course my plays, too, but I seperate that). You all should know by now that I hate betting on games which have too much juice or favs in general more or less (odds-wise) and normally I don't have any leans on big favs because of that. The thing is that I had 21 leans on odds of bigger than -125 (in the range of -127 to even -204) thusfar, nearly none of it was a play for me on the ML in the end (besides 2 or 3) because I hate them odds. Of course the sample size is rather small. The average odd of those games would have been -151. In the end I would have won 15 and only 6 would have been losers. This would have added up for about +4 units. So if I had bet them all I would be up about +19 units instead of about +15. Not taking the money was rather dumb looking backwards.

I don't know why this year is so strange. I don't want to rage about this season or whatever, since I am up a lot but all in all this season occurs to me as very unorthodox. Lots of bullpens blow it, then you fade a team 2 times in a row because it's cold and they lose both, next time you back a team which is hot and it loses 2 in a row, then starters who have very good seasons start to blow it out of nothing, lineups translate from the best hitters in the universe to the worst hitters ever in the span of 2 games and lots of other things. I watch a lot of games and I can't remember scratching my head as much as I did this year.

Your thread is a perfect example of bad luck IMO. As far as I remember you picked a lot of games which not only I agreed with, but looked rather good until the late innings and then the bullpen collapsed, sometimes blowing very huuuuuge leads.

Remember, the other day we had a brief conversation on the second half of the season. That, I believe, is when we will know who is for real and who is tanking. You'll be seeing trades and teams dumping players etc. I am hearing Cueto & Leake are up for grabs, and the usual Cole Hamels bullshit. If this guy is so good, why for two years doesn't anybody want him ??? Well, anyway, when we get to the halfway mark I will be switching to a "second half thread" that way you can see all my losing selections without flipping through daily threads.

[larry040681]

all I know now is to keep it fun and simple; do not chase and pick ( dog ) with a highest percentage to win. For some, get ML teams ( faves) 2-3 teams max parlay them. I still believe it's too early, when this is over, our pockets will be plenty..

[R.P. McMurphy]

Don't see what big deal is really? I usually stick with dogs and very rarely play up to -120/140 range in spots. But there is certainly nothing wrong going with -105/115 lines ever really if you like the pick and everything adds up. You lay -110 ish on totals, football, basketball plays if you play them so why should bases be different? I get having a structure and try to adhere but by no means will -105 lines kill you in bases and makes zero sense to say I would take it at +101 but -105 a bit rich even if I like the play a see a winner. Bol Posey you do good work though!

[2daBank]

Remember, the other day we had a brief conversation on the second half of the season. That, I believe, is when we will know who is for real and who is tanking. You'll be seeing trades and teams dumping players etc. I am hearing Cueto & Leake are up for grabs, and the usual Cole Hamels bullshit. If this guy is so good, why for two years doesn't anybody want him ??? Well, anyway, when we get to the halfway mark I will be switching to a "second half thread" that way you can see all my losing selections without flipping through daily threads.

i believe the issue is phils gm isnt among the better ones around. it not that teams dont want him, in this day and age it makes very little sense to give up the unreasonable hall of prospects phils have been demanding for a guy on the wrong side of 30 with a very big contract (i think he under a big contract for several more years, isnt he?).. unless phils wanna be irrelevant for the next 5-10 years they will become more reasonable of the asking price and/or being willing to eat some money, they dont seem to have a problem blowing in dishing out bad contracts, lol..

[44 Mag]

i believe the issue is phils gm isnt among the better ones around. it not that teams dont want him, in this day and age it makes very little sense to give up the unreasonable hall of prospects phils have been demanding for a guy on the wrong side of 30 with a very big contract (i think he under a big contract for several more years, isnt he?).. unless phils wanna be irrelevant for the next 5-10 years they will become more reasonable of the asking price and/or being willing to eat some money, they dont seem to have a problem blowing in dishing out bad contracts, lol..

Yeah, I kind of new it was a money thing and prospects, but just thought after 2 years of rumors, somebody would reach out. We all know some teams ( Red Sox comes to mind) Need a quality starter/Ace. I don't mean to pick on RS, there are about a dozen teams that would love to have that guy.

[2daBank]

Yeah, I kind of new it was a money thing and prospects, but just thought after 2 years of rumors, somebody would reach out. We all know some teams ( Red Sox comes to mind) Need a quality starter/Ace. I don't mean to pick on RS, there are about a dozen teams that would love to have that guy.

oh no doubt and sox have the kind of farm depth to help philly with a lot of guys mlb ready (especially if they on phils, lol) it just a matter of phils being smart enough to except they not gonna get the most coveted guys, they need to be content getting a pacage of guys that will help rebuild a roster in desperate need of rebuilding. just comes down to them understanding they just not getting top 10 type prospect in the deal but instead a bunch of solid prospects that can and will help them. in other words swallow their pride and do whats best for their future instead of continually procrastinating hoping some sucker will give them the world.

[posey]

Remember, the other day we had a brief conversation on the second half of the season. That, I believe, is when we will know who is for real and who is tanking. You'll be seeing trades and teams dumping players etc. I am hearing Cueto & Leake are up for grabs, and the usual Cole Hamels bullshit. If this guy is so good, why for two years doesn't anybody want him ??? Well, anyway, when we get to the halfway mark I will be switching to a "second half thread" that way you can see all my losing selections without flipping through daily threads.

Yeah, I am curious on which trades will happen, that's for sure. Could shake up things a lot. And there have always been first half bombers who became blowers in the 2nd half and vice versa.
Regarding Cole Hamels see below.

all I know now is to keep it fun and simple; do not chase and pick ( dog ) with a highest percentage to win. For some, get ML teams ( faves) 2-3 teams max parlay them. I still believe it's too early, when this is over, our pockets will be plenty..

Chasing has never worked for me. I tried some 'chase-systems' in the past but I really hate it. It can become a real mental stress when a big part of your bankroll is on the roll and you can't do anything about it because you 'live' with it hitting or die with it not hitting. That's utter BS IMO and all those 'succesful' chase-systems by more or less known 'pros' or whatever have so many tweaks and are often made up by them (fitting in games which wouldn't have qualified, eraising lost bets, etc.). I've seen it all over the years. Not only regarding baseball, but regarding other sports as well.

Don't see what big deal is really? I usually stick with dogs and very rarely play up to -120/140 range in spots. But there is certainly nothing wrong going with -105/115 lines ever really if you like the pick and everything adds up. You lay -110 ish on totals, football, basketball plays if you play them so why should bases be different? I get having a structure and try to adhere but by no means will -105 lines kill you in bases and makes zero sense to say I would take it at +101 but -105 a bit rich even if I like the play a see a winner. Bol Posey you do good work though!

There is no big deal indeed. In fact I fully agree with you. I only tend get crazy sometimes when I am on a 'losing streak' (most times a losing day is enough that I get a little mad) and then I try to do unorthodox things. But in the end one day later at the MOST I am back to normal business. Lol, sounds strange, but it is what it is.

i believe the issue is phils gm isnt among the better ones around. it not that teams dont want him, in this day and age it makes very little sense to give up the unreasonable hall of prospects phils have been demanding for a guy on the wrong side of 30 with a very big contract (i think he under a big contract for several more years, isnt he?).. unless phils wanna be irrelevant for the next 5-10 years they will become more reasonable of the asking price and/or being willing to eat some money, they dont seem to have a problem blowing in dishing out bad contracts, lol..

Hamels IS one of the better starters around. He didn't have a WHIP of above 1.200 since 2009. His contract is bis 2018 (including 2019 team option). Bad thing is that he will get paid $23,500,000 from 2015 onwards every season until 2018. Team option is for $20,000,000 with a $24,000,000 vesting option and a $6,000,000 buyout. TO vests if he 1) has 400 IP in 2017-18, including 200 IP in 2018, and 2) is not on the disabled list with a shoulder or elbow injury at the end of the 2018 season.

[mitch51]

all I know now is to keep it fun and simple; do not chase and pick ( dog ) with a highest percentage to win. For some, get ML teams ( faves) 2-3 teams max parlay them. I still believe it's too early, when this is over, our pockets will be plenty..

Love this advice from my friend Lefty. It's exactly how you make money.

[44 Mag]

[QUOTE=2daBank;24144555]oh no doubt and sox have the kind of farm depth to help philly with a lot of guys mlb ready (especially if they on phils, lol) it just a matter of phils being smart enough to except they not gonna get the most coveted guys, they need to be content getting a pacage of guys that will help rebuild a roster in desperate need of rebuilding. just comes down to them understanding they just not getting top 10 type prospect in the deal but instead a bunch of solid prospects that can and will help them. in other words swallow their pride and do whats best for their future instead of continually procrastinating hoping some sucker will give them the world.[/QUOTE] AGREED !.

[posey]

Ah, Fade Buchholz showing up today...

[posey]

Nasty...bet still alive lol...

[Hudini]

-1 lines are best for home teams. I play 3 home teams with -1 and usually over +100 and 3 teams with alternate run lines, usually +180 up to +240

-1 and -1,5 are 47-45 with +13,5 units and alternate run lines are 29-44 with +14,5 units.

Anyway I'm love to read your opinion guys

[BeanTownClown88]

Brother, take a cab to Fenway, it's cheaper than parking your car at one of those gas stations for 50.00 to 100.00 LOL.

Yes sir I'm usually on the T..my dad took me and he works at a company out of MIT and we parked there for free!

Boston sucks so bad, can't get out of their own way..they hire a GM that gets free range only once he spends the 150 million on whatever bozos the ownership forces him to take just to spice up the tv show. Oh well was a beautiful day at the park

[Ebe]

BOL to you Posey

[posey]

Thank you!

Smh - looking at my initial leans (treating them all as ML plays) I would have gone 6-3 yesterday, albeit with some kinda lowish odds. But because I didn't make those plays at plays on the ML, but instead opted for -1 or -1.5 and even forgot (!!! ) to play the Cubs, here's what came out of it:

Red Sox -1 +101, L, -1.00 u.
Rangers -1 +120, W, +1.20 u.
Pirates -1.5 -107, L, -1.00 u.
Indians ML -105, W, +0.93 u.
Astros -1 -106, L, -1.00 u.
Mets -1 -102, L, -1.00 u.
Rays -1 -116, P, +-0.00 u.
Padres +1 +106, W, +1.06 u.
Cards - 1 -102, P, +-0.00 u.

Yesterday: 3-4, -0.81 u.
Record: 62-55, 13.96 u.

Betting on Pirates ML, Rays ML and Cards ML would have made me profit. Should I really think about taking such odds on regular basis?

[larry040681]

will you add extra to win a unit? I would do ML and RL plays just as long as it's within your banroll %..

[posey]

Sorry, maybe it's because I am from Germany and English is not my native language, but what do you mean with 'will you add extra to win a unit?'? Do you wanna know if I play -odds to win one unit?

[posey]

Oomph, I realized that ML dogs have gone 11-26 the last 3 days. The 3 days before that they went 15-21.

[dfish]

Thank you!

Smh - looking at my initial leans (treating them all as ML plays) I would have gone 6-3 yesterday, albeit with some kinda lowish odds. But because I didn't make those plays at plays on the ML, but instead opted for -1 or -1.5 and even forgot (!!! ) to play the Cubs, here's what came out of it:
Yesterday: 3-4, -0.81 u.
Record: 62-55, 13.96 u.

Betting on Pirates ML, Rays ML and Cards ML would have made me profit. Should I really think about taking such odds on regular basis?

@ -155,-174,-146 my thought is NO. Money saved is money earned.
GL

[posey]

6/14

Current leans:

- Padres/ML +106
Despite 1.69 HR/9 and 19.5 HR/FB% James Shields is 7-0 in 13 starts. But I don't buy much in his W-L or the run support he gets, my main factor here are his better stats at home and his high K% and low BB%. His SIERA and xFIP suggest room for improvement and although he had a rather bad outing at Atlanta in his last start and having some bad stats against certain Dodgers hitters with enough ABs to draw a conclusion, I think getting him at +odds here is a good spot. Dodgers have lost 6 of their last 10 road games and in their last 8 games overall they scored only two times more than 4 runs, but in 5 they scored 2 or less. Bolsinger has a nice W-L and ERA, but his BABIP, xFIP and SIERA (although the last two aren't too bad either) tell us that he was kinda lucky. Besides that the Dodgers bullpen has been kinda shaky as of late and I would give the Padres pen the plus here. Despaigne was able to keep the Padres more or less in the game versus Kershaw (although a lot in that game had to do with the shaky pen of the Dodgers) and yesterday Ian Kennedy did rather well against Zack Greinke, so why should Mike Bolsinger be favored against James Shields on the road? Bolsinger's away outings have been far worse than his home starts.

- Cubs/-1 (no odds yet) or ML -154
Cubs don't want to split this series for sure. DeSclafani wasn't too bad as of late and his road numbers aren't bad either, but we can give a lot of luck the credit for that (his road BABIP is very low with only .202 as opposed to .359 at home). He gave up only 7 R (3 ER) in 26 IP in April, but since then he has given up 25 ER in 45.1 IP. His xFIP (4.57) and SIERA (4.73) show that his ERA (3.53) will blow sooner or later. He doesn't get lots of Ks and walks slightly too many batters as well. Lester's ERA is above 4.00 (4.25), but sabermetrics (3.20 xFIP and 3.41 SIERA) show that he has been kinda unlucky (has much to do with his quite high BABIP of .341 and his high HR/FB% of 15.0% which is at a career high). Last starts were quite bad and I don't like the 'due-factor', but both were on the road and his home outings were better than his starts in foreign stadiums. Both teams are 6-4 over the last 10, but the Cubs had the more difficult opponents (Nats and Tigers on the road), while the Reds got some benefit from sweeping the lousy Phillies at home. Reds have also lots of problems with their pen and are only 2-6 vs LH starters on the road this season.


- Cardinals/-1 +111 or ML -130
Simply put, this bet would have two main reasons:
1. Chris Young's luck which he carries since 2014 (2014 BABIP .238 and 2015 even .196) won't last forever. This guy will get shelled sooner or later. Last year he had a xFIP of 5.19 along a SIERA of 5.24 (both very bad numbers) and a 3.65 ERA. In 2015 he has a xFIP of 4.99 along a SIERA of 4.86 (still very bad) and an ERA of 2.25. Besides him there are some lucky guys around this year, but I don't know any pitcher in current baseball whose lucky streak has been going on for so long. This guy is a bum and nothing else. He has a career GB% of below 30% (this year 26%) and while he allowed more than 1.2x HR/9 in 2013 and 2014, he has allowed only 0.69 HR/9 in this season. This has to change and this will change. He got his due from the Yankees and Indians before he had another lucky outing against the Twins (6.1 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 0 HR, 3 BB, 2 K, what is that please?). Cards should punish him.
2. Lackey has some bad stats against some Royals and he got roughed up at Coors last time out. But - and that's unbelievably good - for some reason Lackey is a god at Busch's. Cards are 11-1 with him there (4.0 - 2.2 runs/game). The only game he lost was against the Phillies with Hamels (and this guy is 6-2 with the Phillies himself at St. Louis). Neither BABIP, nor xFIP and SIERA say that Lackey was kinda lucky. This guy pitches right to his abilities and his numbers are quite right. Additionally the Royals have only won 4 of their last 10 road games (and 3 wins came at the slumping Twins).
The Royals should be about +135 and not +120 here.

[R.P. McMurphy]

May as well ask resident Frisco fan lol. Guessing you will be objective here Posey. Fade Heston following no no or you like them? I see different factors pulling me here different directions.
However a guy off a no hitter is fade or stay clear of in my book.

[posey]

Nobet for me. Giants don't wanna lose 3 in a row and De La Rosa not too good. Odds are set quite well IMO. Heston may get lit up, maybe not.

[R.P. McMurphy]

Yeah those were my main concerns. Frisco offense cold at home but have pounded de la Rosa in past pretty hard. And hate taking road teams looking to sweep on get away day.

Far as Chris Young concerned he also pitched a no no pretty much his last start into 7th before getting yanked after giving up 1 hit . Certainly solid that day but I've seen more commanding performances with no hitters and vs better squads than Twinks who aren't hitting right now. He was hit hard several times in that gm though , had a hr saved with great catch and hit he gave up prior to being yanked was couple ft shy of a dinger of top of right wall. Certainly came outta the gate steaming this year but in a couple prior starts to Twins gm he was showing cracks. I would certainly not be surprised from a letdown his way today. Bol!

[larry040681]

Sorry, maybe it's because I am from Germany and English is not my native language, but what do you mean with 'will you add extra to win a unit?'? Do you wanna know if I play -odds to win one unit?

yes.. sorry for the words..