lets do this!
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Comment -
Last year was wildly successful and I'm playing it the same way.
The only small change I make is that I skip days when there are four games or fewer on the schedule. I just don't believe that small sampling is enough to put a team in the role of biggest favorite compared to a day when there are 15 games available.Comment -
here you go guys... I have been working on the other system thread and this one caught my eye and intrigued me... I cant believe this thread went this long and had a lot of success last year and from what I can tell no one back tested this beyond 2008, so I started to...
I did 2006 as a random year before 2008 to see how it worked out... Here is what I can say, it seems solid, but tread lightly, it does seem like 6 is for some cosmic reason a magic number, although 2006 would have been a very scary but profitable year for this....
I know this got streamlined last year to not include the first and last two weeks of the season, but I will put the results of the whole year just to show a sample size of the complete season... Ironically, it followed a pattern that seemed to be the opposite of 2009 in many ways... April, May and believe it or not the first three weeks of September were the best strecthes and June, and July particularly were very scary...
Before I post the results I will say that as far as the original concept of 6 game chase on the RL it was undefeated until the very last week of the season (95-0) and then it lost each day for the last 6 days of the season and ended the season that way.... here are the results month by month, with a breakdown of the chases in the month like had been posted here for last years results.....
April
15 - 0
1) 10
2) 1
3) 0
4) 4
5) 0
6) 0
May
18 - 0
1) 9
2) 6
3) 2
4) 1
5) 0
6) 0
June
15 - 0
1) 7
2) 4
3) 1
4) 1
5) 2
6) 0
July
12 - 0
1) 7
2) 2
3) 0
4) 1
5) 1
6) 1
August
16 - 0
1) 8
2) 4
3) 2
4) 1
5) 1
6) 0
September
19 - 1
1) 14
2) 4
3) 1
4) 0
5) 0
6) 0
x7) 1
Here is what I noticed... it got really scary in June and July, there were two back to back 5 game chases in the middle of June, and honestly, on the winning day that seperated the two chases, the two biggest favs on the card were very close lines, and one covered and one didn't, it would have depended on what line you got to know if you would have ended the chase with the win or took a loss for the 6 game chase...
during that time, I noticed that in 2006 because KC sucked so bad, almost half of your plays on the year you were just essentially fading KC on the RL, that meant anytime they got a little hot and put together short winning streaks, you were chasing, so if you did the 6 game chase in 2006, and stopped after the 2nd wk of sept you would have gone deep in to the bankroll multiple times during the summer, but you would have went undefeated on the year... here is the tally for the complete year shown above taking out the last two weeks of the year as you guys established last year:
88 - 0
chase results:
1) 50
2) 19
3) 6
4) 8
5) 4
6) 1
seems like another solid year... I think at this point considering the varied results and some of the chases in 2006, it might be a great idea to get the results for the bridge year of 2007...
I am very interested in this, my feeling after going through 2006 is just... tread lightly, though if you got the roll that can chase 4 or 5 deep a handful of times in a season without sweating much, this seems quite solid....
any thoughts? or volunteers to check on 2007 results
as a side note... doing 2006 made me notice the frequency that -250 and -300 favs lose straight up... made me think of the converse of this, 3 to 6 game chase on biggest dog on the card each day... if you think about it, it is just the flip side of this, the results should be similar except you are getting big plus money on your wins, which means in chasing you would have to lay a lot less... just a thought that occured to me, I know it isnt premised on much, there isnt much of a rationale to chase big dogs outside of for the most part baseball is really a 50/50 game so a lot of times there is huge value in getting +250 even if your team sucks and you are facing a beast on the hill...
anyway hope the results for one more backtested year help out, I am interested in working on this this week to see if it should be a play to be madeComment -
StingyRivers.... Thanks for all the research!! I wanted to ask if there is a way to post a -1RL converter on the forum. I have the file and have sent it to many of you that have PM'ed me...but wanted to make it accessible to all via a link and do not want to violate any of SBR's rules. What's the preferred method that SBR uses?
Also gentlemen... I will be posting some new systems to take a look at... nothing as in-depth as this one I don't believe... but when I posted this one last year I never thought it would take off as much as it did no this forum... I"ll post the few other systems and see if anybody has access to a database to backtrack the results. They should be very profitable from what I have read thus far on them. I will call them System Integrity 2, 3, 4, etc. on the thread if your interested in reading. I'll have them up later tonight!!Comment -
This will be very interesting. Are u guys gonna play the 6 game chase or stop at 3 games??Comment -
Stewie.... I haven't decided yet to be honest...not sure what everybody else is going to do.. but I"m leaning on doing the 3 game chase with the -1RL. Still debating....Comment -
Gentlemen here is a powerful Parlay Article that may help make some money for ya!! I'm still working on the -1RL calculator and I'll have it up here in a few...Comment -
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here you go guys... I have been working on the other system thread and this one caught my eye and intrigued me... I cant believe this thread went this long and had a lot of success last year and from what I can tell no one back tested this beyond 2008, so I started to...
I did 2006 as a random year before 2008 to see how it worked out... Here is what I can say, it seems solid, but tread lightly, it does seem like 6 is for some cosmic reason a magic number, although 2006 would have been a very scary but profitable year for this....
I know this got streamlined last year to not include the first and last two weeks of the season, but I will put the results of the whole year just to show a sample size of the complete season... Ironically, it followed a pattern that seemed to be the opposite of 2009 in many ways... April, May and believe it or not the first three weeks of September were the best strecthes and June, and July particularly were very scary...
Before I post the results I will say that as far as the original concept of 6 game chase on the RL it was undefeated until the very last week of the season (95-0) and then it lost each day for the last 6 days of the season and ended the season that way.... here are the results month by month, with a breakdown of the chases in the month like had been posted here for last years results.....
April
15 - 0
1) 10
2) 1
3) 0
4) 4
5) 0
6) 0
May
18 - 0
1) 9
2) 6
3) 2
4) 1
5) 0
6) 0
June
15 - 0
1) 7
2) 4
3) 1
4) 1
5) 2
6) 0
July
12 - 0
1) 7
2) 2
3) 0
4) 1
5) 1
6) 1
August
16 - 0
1) 8
2) 4
3) 2
4) 1
5) 1
6) 0
September
19 - 1
1) 14
2) 4
3) 1
4) 0
5) 0
6) 0
x7) 1
Here is what I noticed... it got really scary in June and July, there were two back to back 5 game chases in the middle of June, and honestly, on the winning day that seperated the two chases, the two biggest favs on the card were very close lines, and one covered and one didn't, it would have depended on what line you got to know if you would have ended the chase with the win or took a loss for the 6 game chase...
during that time, I noticed that in 2006 because KC sucked so bad, almost half of your plays on the year you were just essentially fading KC on the RL, that meant anytime they got a little hot and put together short winning streaks, you were chasing, so if you did the 6 game chase in 2006, and stopped after the 2nd wk of sept you would have gone deep in to the bankroll multiple times during the summer, but you would have went undefeated on the year... here is the tally for the complete year shown above taking out the last two weeks of the year as you guys established last year:
88 - 0
chase results:
1) 50
2) 19
3) 6
4) 8
5) 4
6) 1
seems like another solid year... I think at this point considering the varied results and some of the chases in 2006, it might be a great idea to get the results for the bridge year of 2007...
I am very interested in this, my feeling after going through 2006 is just... tread lightly, though if you got the roll that can chase 4 or 5 deep a handful of times in a season without sweating much, this seems quite solid....
any thoughts? or volunteers to check on 2007 results
as a side note... doing 2006 made me notice the frequency that -250 and -300 favs lose straight up... made me think of the converse of this, 3 to 6 game chase on biggest dog on the card each day... if you think about it, it is just the flip side of this, the results should be similar except you are getting big plus money on your wins, which means in chasing you would have to lay a lot less... just a thought that occured to me, I know it isnt premised on much, there isnt much of a rationale to chase big dogs outside of for the most part baseball is really a 50/50 game so a lot of times there is huge value in getting +250 even if your team sucks and you are facing a beast on the hill...
anyway hope the results for one more backtested year help out, I am interested in working on this this week to see if it should be a play to be made
great info!
last year somebody on the thread (maybe floridagolfer remembers) said that if you play this system moneyline, it was perfect. no losses at all in the 4-5 years tested. the juice would be extremely high, but you cant argue with perfect.
also, is it safer to play 2 simultaneous chases of the biggest fav -1 and the biggest dog ML?Comment -
Fantastic information from all. Thanks Again. I'm excited.Comment -
Yeah this sounds like a good plan...I think we need to all agree on what the real SYSTEM PARAMETERS are for all users...
So are we going to do a 3 game chase? 4? 5? ...And are we doing it on the -1 RL or -1.5 RL or ML?
And has anyone checked into chasing the BIGGEST Dog of the day?
Thanks!!!Comment -
here you go guys... I have been working on the other system thread and this one caught my eye and intrigued me... I cant believe this thread went this long and had a lot of success last year and from what I can tell no one back tested this beyond 2008, so I started to...
I did 2006 as a random year before 2008 to see how it worked out... Here is what I can say, it seems solid, but tread lightly, it does seem like 6 is for some cosmic reason a magic number, although 2006 would have been a very scary but profitable year for this....
I know this got streamlined last year to not include the first and last two weeks of the season, but I will put the results of the whole year just to show a sample size of the complete season... Ironically, it followed a pattern that seemed to be the opposite of 2009 in many ways... April, May and believe it or not the first three weeks of September were the best strecthes and June, and July particularly were very scary...
Before I post the results I will say that as far as the original concept of 6 game chase on the RL it was undefeated until the very last week of the season (95-0) and then it lost each day for the last 6 days of the season and ended the season that way.... here are the results month by month, with a breakdown of the chases in the month like had been posted here for last years results.....
April
15 - 0
1) 10
2) 1
3) 0
4) 4
5) 0
6) 0
May
18 - 0
1) 9
2) 6
3) 2
4) 1
5) 0
6) 0
June
15 - 0
1) 7
2) 4
3) 1
4) 1
5) 2
6) 0
July
12 - 0
1) 7
2) 2
3) 0
4) 1
5) 1
6) 1
August
16 - 0
1) 8
2) 4
3) 2
4) 1
5) 1
6) 0
September
19 - 1
1) 14
2) 4
3) 1
4) 0
5) 0
6) 0
x7) 1
Here is what I noticed... it got really scary in June and July, there were two back to back 5 game chases in the middle of June, and honestly, on the winning day that seperated the two chases, the two biggest favs on the card were very close lines, and one covered and one didn't, it would have depended on what line you got to know if you would have ended the chase with the win or took a loss for the 6 game chase...
during that time, I noticed that in 2006 because KC sucked so bad, almost half of your plays on the year you were just essentially fading KC on the RL, that meant anytime they got a little hot and put together short winning streaks, you were chasing, so if you did the 6 game chase in 2006, and stopped after the 2nd wk of sept you would have gone deep in to the bankroll multiple times during the summer, but you would have went undefeated on the year... here is the tally for the complete year shown above taking out the last two weeks of the year as you guys established last year:
88 - 0
chase results:
1) 50
2) 19
3) 6
4) 8
5) 4
6) 1
seems like another solid year... I think at this point considering the varied results and some of the chases in 2006, it might be a great idea to get the results for the bridge year of 2007...
I am very interested in this, my feeling after going through 2006 is just... tread lightly, though if you got the roll that can chase 4 or 5 deep a handful of times in a season without sweating much, this seems quite solid....
any thoughts? or volunteers to check on 2007 results
as a side note... doing 2006 made me notice the frequency that -250 and -300 favs lose straight up... made me think of the converse of this, 3 to 6 game chase on biggest dog on the card each day... if you think about it, it is just the flip side of this, the results should be similar except you are getting big plus money on your wins, which means in chasing you would have to lay a lot less... just a thought that occured to me, I know it isnt premised on much, there isnt much of a rationale to chase big dogs outside of for the most part baseball is really a 50/50 game so a lot of times there is huge value in getting +250 even if your team sucks and you are facing a beast on the hill...
anyway hope the results for one more backtested year help out, I am interested in working on this this week to see if it should be a play to be made
are these using RL -1 or Rl -1.5?Comment -
Very interesting. I have to study this system.To beat bookmakers, bettors and cappers have to walk together.Comment -
So are we doing the -1RL or the -1.5RL???ThanksComment -
So I take it that take the biggest moneyline play on the board and play runline
sounds like a johnny morrison system
Comment -
Here's another one to think about... no chase really involved here... less to worry about just betting the game straight up...
Gentlemen,
Came across this system and don't know how well it would do but thought I would share.
After a good club (greater than .500) wins three consecutive games; play them up to three straight times if these conditions are met:
1.) They are at HOME
2.) Price Line is below 1.70 (-170)
In the system I looked at... the following were the records after 2 years:
National League: American League:
969-570 (62.9%) 981-553 (63.9%)
If anybody has a database to cross reference that info... over the last 3-5 seasons...that'd be great. Potential to make a lot of money with this if its legit.Comment -
this is a good old school baseball system... it is based on the reality in baseball that the optimum time to beat on a team is after three wins in a row... baseball is a huge game of streaks and there is a lot of data that a team really starts to hit their stride in building a winning streak between the 3 and 6 game range... I think you will find plus results in this... it also works conversely, when a bad team loses three in a row... when I first started out, I found some success in plus .500 teams who have won 2 in a row against a team that has lost at least one in a rowComment -
I was back-testing something similar a while back but gave up because it was so time consuming. It was a chase on the -1.5 RL of the biggest fav of the day (minimum -200 favorite), but used line movement as a filter, the line movement had to move at least 10 cents in the favor of the favorite. I might re-visit the back-testing this week, but the little I had came out pretty good.Comment -
I have complete results for this system from 2007-2009. I will post them up tomorrow morning.
From what I can gather, I think your best bet is to play a 4 game chase on the -1 RL. but i will post all the info so you can decide. it really boils down to how much risk you want to handle.
great thread guys!Comment -
for what its worth and those who were asking, I started backtesting biggest dog on the board each day., and I stopped real early.... last year you opened the season on a 5 day chase... you would be laying a lot less down as always on big plus money odds, but my feeling is you would be on a lot of long chases all year long.... although, this approach may work nice in september when all other systems stop... for the very reasons all other systems stop... chasing the biggest dog on the board could prove to be profitable in the month of september with similar designs such as a limited chase etc...Comment -
This is my first post, and ive read every single page of this thread. It wasnt said until about two posts up, but I agree with a 4-game 1-RL chase system. With Larger wagers on the first two games, a bit of reduction off for games three and even more reduction on the fourth.
Even though a system loss is so far and few, just one loss negates most of the built bankroll, so its imporant to take advantage of the MANY 1 or 2 game chasers that happen year in and year out.
Or if you wanna be super careful and wait for 2 losses and chase from there. not sure how many times youd be able to wager though.Comment -
I like the idea of waiting for a couple losses.... I back tested 2006, the results are above... if you waited for two losses before making a play, on the season you went 19 -0.... so I guess you would lay more, but your longest chase was 4 games and only once... here is the breakdown for 2006
19 - 0
chases:
1) 6
2) 8
3) 4
4) 1
5) 0
6) 0
if you just wait for one loss to make the play you would have been 38 - 0 on the year, and the longest chase was 5 games...
that may be the middle ground of safer and still worth the return on the yearComment -
As profitable as this might be, I think we'll all agree that 99 percent of people don't have the patience and willpower to make just one bet a week or week and a half.
I don't have the 2009 stats in front of me at the moment, but I think there were 14 instances where the favorite won the game but did not cover the 1.5 runs. So if you're inclined to play this as -1 instead of -1.5, right off the bat you have 14 fewer losses.
The book I use offers -1.5 lines but not -1. Does anyone know if there are books that offer both?
As for my plans for '10, I'm doing the same thing I did last year, which was a 6-game chase (but only one time did it ever go beyond 4).Comment -
OK...so it sounds like we are doing the biggest fav. on the -1 RL and we will have larger bets on the first two games and lower bets on the next two for a total of a 4 game chase?? Is that right??Comment -
-1 RL's you can make by betting the true RL and hedging with a ML bet.Comment -
I'm pretty sure 5Dimes offers -1 and -1.5 RL's. As well as all kind of other combinations...Comment -
reverend, not to be pushy but did i miss the backtesting results?Comment -
Seems to be good, but risky.To beat bookmakers, bettors and cappers have to walk together.Comment -
I'm sorta slow when it comes to 100% understanding something. Could you possibly provide a literal example of said system. I understand all the terminology and everything but i'm unsure how to apply to be able to be used.Comment -
I've been with "Johnny Morrison" and his systems now for more than a year, and everything he does is on a 3 game series. Using either -1RL or -1.5RL will be much safer than Mr. Morrisons plays. Nearly every play will be even money to + money. I do like that alot!
Although I am completely satisfied with his systems overall, there have been a couple of occasions where he finds a .5 point better than what I was able to find on a particular game, and he wins, while I lose.
So indeed I have grown to absolutely love systems. To be very honest, I can find little fault in any of the methods I have seen thus far in this thread.
Looking at the past performance results....I'm not really sure It is worth going out 6 games in order to to gain a few more wins during the season. I do like waiting a couple of weeks into the season before beginning. I also like ending this system in early to mid-Sept.
As I see it, even if you have 4 or 5 losses going out 3 or 4 games, As long as you don't risk more than about 1/4 of your betting bankroll on any series play, you will be in great shape by the end of the year.
Taking the numbers below as guide, I wouldn't want to wait for the oneor two game loss before beginning, as that to me would leave us with 69 fewer wins. With the higher risk at game 5 and 6, I could take not risking additional funds just for those 5 additional wins.
88 - 0
chase results:
1) 50
2) 19
3) 6
4) 8
5) 4
6) 1
I'm keeping my eyes on this thread, as I definetely plan to put this system into play within the next few weeks.
Thanks to everyone for the great input.Comment -
Ok...here are the results of backtesting this system for the past 3 seasons. I based the below results on a 4 game chase betting to win $100 per series. I backtested it skipping the first and last 2 weeks of each season.
2009:
ML: 98-1
-1 RL: 86-1
-1.5 RL: 86-2
2008:
ML: 117-0
-1 RL: 88-1
-1.5 RL: 88-4
2007:
ML: 114-2
-1 RL: 80-2
-1.5 RL: 80-3
Payout Info: (this is a rough estimate, because I did not have the exact juice for -1 RL, but it is pretty close)
There were 2 different ways to play this system that yielded similar results. Assuming you are not playing this on the 5 & 6 game ML chase (because the juice is crazy high), you options would be:
1- playing a 4 game chase on the -1.5 RL (+$11,900 from 2007-2009)
2- playing a 4 game chase on the -1 RL (+$10,200 from 2007-2009)
After really digging into this system, it is hard to objectively say the best way to play it, because 1 loss can change up your results in a hurry. It basically comes down how comfortable you are with juice and a chase system. If you want to minimize your exposure in terms of chasing deep into series, you would want to play the -1 RL system, as you will have a number of "pushes" that would be "losses" int he -1.5 version. If you want to have the least amount of money on the table, then you would want to play the -1.5 RL version, because you will be getting much lower juice (often + juice), but you will sustain more individual game losses through the year, which means you will be going deeper into the chase.
You may be asking what about the ML. I thought that as well. The ML was undefeated in 2008, but even though the 2009 record of 98-1 looks great, that one loss would have cost you $10,425 as a $100 bettor. The juice during that loss in 2009 was: -215, -200, -265, -205. That is a huge loss and would have made you slightly negative for the year. That series loss ended up losing the 5th game as well. So yes, if you were using the 6 game chase, you would have been undefeated in 2008-2009, but you would have a heart attack watching that 6th game.Comment -
I know the above is alot of info, so after reading through it, feel free to ask me questions. I have more detailed data, so I can look back at it and answer questions.
Also, it is very possible that I am missing another angle. I have been running numbers like crazy the past week, so I by no means think I have covered every possible idea.
Please ask and contribute.Comment
