System Integrity?

[Machine Choice]

Starting Bankroll: $1,644

Mets -1.5 (+105)
$100 to win $105

Gentlemen, I'll see you on the beach.

[trinitiy]

Which books offer a -1 RL?

netinfo

Pinny

[netinfo]

Pinny

Are there any other books besides Pinnacle that offers the -1 RL? I'm a US citizen, so Pinny won't work for me.

netinfo

[Machine Choice]

I've just read this whole thread. Looks like I'm the only foolish enough to come into this at $100 level. I've got a little more than $1,600 so I can only chase to five games. But if I lose the money, I don't give a shit.

[Machine Choice]

For me this is going to be more about fun than money (although I would like to win $15,700, which is possible if the system holds up). I can imagine the fun on the night of the fifth game.

[DukeJohn]

DukeJohn, welcome to the thread.

umm... thanks, but I have been here pretty much since the beginning, even posting were to find -1.5 historical lines for everyone...

[bobby heenan]

For me this is going to be more about fun than money (although I would like to win $15,700, which is possible if the system holds up). I can imagine the fun on the night of the fifth game.

and you can add that 15k to the 15k youll be taking home when the royals win the world series!

[jellobiafra]

umm... thanks, but I have been here pretty much since the beginning, even posting were to find -1.5 historical lines for everyone...

Sorry for my snideness. I posted that response right about the time I had 3 parlays crashing all around me. I hope you understand.

[DukeJohn]

Sorry for my snideness. I posted that response right about the time I had 3 parlays crashing all around me. I hope you understand.

I can understand that... I hope it gets better for you...

[trinitiy]

For me this is going to be more about fun than money (although I would like to win $15,700, which is possible if the system holds up). I can imagine the fun on the night of the fifth game.

sometimes you have to take a chance, good luck my friend because I might join you.

[trinitiy]

and you can add that 15k to the 15k youll be taking home when the royals win the world series!

[bobby heenan]

i hear ya about a crashing parlay....i had a nice one with the rays, white sox, braves, and d-backs....but the dbacks couldnt hit the god randy wolf....made him look like friggin sandy koufax....sall good though....went big on the system play here with the braves

[BTTNext]

I'm in on the system. The -1 RL version. Gonna start small with $5 bets.

[jellobiafra]

I'm going to start posting these the night before, because I'm including them in my own thread that I started tonight. Machine already called it above


Monday's Play: NYM +100 (Run Line)

Current System Record: 4-0 (4-3 overall plays)

[jellobiafra]

I've just read this whole thread. Looks like I'm the only foolish enough to come into this at $100 level. I've got a little more than $1,600 so I can only chase to five games. But if I lose the money, I don't give a shit.

I've been trying to tell people to slow their rolls, but nobody wants to hear it. I think you'll be alright. The Mets will cover. And if they don't, somebody will the next night. And if they don't....

Well, you get how it works. GL.

[ScreaminPain]

jello'....I can't believe your patience.

I don't have the iclination to banter with these players, but you've done a remarkable job. Keep up the good work.

I'll chime in when necessary....looks good work so far...4-0

[jellobiafra]

Thanks SiP.

One note for the record: I'm going to be determining these selections now based on the opening lines from Bet Jamaica - the ones posted the afternoon before the day of the game. Previously I've said they will be determined by the morning lines but since I'm a stickler for details I want to amend that now. ScreaminPain's research is based on opening lines so this way will be even truer to his findings from last year. I'll post the play here for those following in this thread. I'll also post them in my "One parlay, One Straight, and One Total" thread where I'll be making some selections daily (for entertainment purposes only).

It might be easier to check that thread rather than sifting through conversation here. Anybody's welcome to talk baseball in that other thread (in fact I invite you to), but let's try to keep this system discussion in this thread only if we can. Thanks guys.

[Machine Choice]

In a scenario where you had a ML fave of -200 and RL of +105 (like the Mets game at The Greek) you would need to structure the bet this way in order to guarantee a win of $100 or a push on a -1 bet:

$49 on RL +105
$98 on ML -200

Outcomes:
Mets win by 2: win $100
Mets win by 1: push
Mets lose: chase

Now, assuming that this set-up resulted in no straight-up losses of more than 3 consecutive games (which the model claims to show) you would need an initial chasing bankroll of $1,407 at the $100 level. If on the 3rd chase the fave lost the game straight up, you would be down $1,407. But let's say you wanted to stretch the chase to 4 games (not supposed to be necessary, but let's just imagine) . Your next wager structured in the fashion above would need to be for $2,215 in order to make a net overall profit of $100. That means the starting bankroll to do the -1 system at the $100 level in order to win $100 (or push) each day for a 4-chase system (lock solid statistical advantage) is $3,622.

I now wish I had structured my Mets play for the -1 play instead of just taking the RL. If it wins, I will begin using the -1 system for the remainder of the year. I just hope I win out the gate because I really prefer the -1 system.

[Machine Choice]

As an alternative to the above post, using the same scenario, if you want to risk $100 instead of winning $100 and you are satisfied with a net of $70 each day instead of $100, you would be able to stretch the -1 chase to 4 games (after 3 consecutive straight up losses) using an initial bankroll of only $2,366 instead of $3,622. In the above sceanrio a $100 bet would be structured like this:

$34 RL (+105)
$66 ML (-200)

Outcomes:
Mets win by 2: win $70
Mets win by 1: push
Mets lose: chase

After losing straight up, the next day you would have to structure a bet of $243 (to cover the $100 you lost and to net $70), and so on..... Of course, these scenarios involve a ML fave of -200 and RL +105. Usually we will get better odds than that.

The 2008 model shows that at least once every six games (and usually much more frequently) the RL will hit. So basically, by taking the -1 bet, you are only "buying yourself time" (to get to that sixth game) between a straight-up loss and a RL win, since the -1 play doesn't pay anything when it hits.

Now, if we assume that on average the RL will hit at least once every 4 days (which is reasonable, but we need to know what the exact number is), then a person risking $100 to win $70 (under the -1 system and at -200 ML/+105 RL) will make a net profit on the year of $2,730. Less risk, less reward.

[Machine Choice]

If you started using this system today for the remainder of the season, and it never failed, you would make the following profit at the end of the season for each level:

$100 level: $15,700
$50 level: $7,850
$25 level: $3,925.

These numbers are wrong. They assume that the RL hits every day or that you compound your bets in such a way that it appears to hit every day even on the days that it doesn't. Nobody here can afford that.

Bottom line: we need to know how often, based upon 2008 model, the RL hit. Was it once every 3.5 days? Once every 4 days? That's the only way for me to know the true to risk to reward ratio model on this. I don't have time to do the math, off to work.

[jellobiafra]

Machine, I think the answers to your quesions are in ScreaminPain's spreadsheets - post #55.

[Marvelboy]

Machine Choice i also joined you in the $100 betting this system is pointless chasing $10 seems stupid as even if it rolls over 6 times your only gunna win $10


That my opinion anyway, im betting in GBP as thats where i live

[ploben]

Machine Choice i also joined you in the $100 betting this system is pointless chasing $10 seems stupid as even if it rolls over 6 times your only gunna win $10


That my opinion anyway, im betting in GBP as thats where i live

Not sure I understand this. Either:

A) Rolls over 6 times meaning you win 6 straight bets chasing $10, so in turn you profit $60
B) Rolls over 6 times meaning you lose your first 5 games of the chase and win on the sixth game. Chasing $10, you win $10. Chasing $20, you win $20. Whatever you're chasing you would profit on your first win.

The chase amount depends on the capacity of someone's bankroll so they don't run out mid chase.

[coreygman]

Question on determining the biggest favorite of the day.

So do you judge the biggest fav by the juice on the M/L or the juice on the Run Line? So the one with the highest on - on the M/L would be considered the biggest Fav or the one with the highest - on the run line would be the biggest fav?

[aneurysm00]

Question on determining the biggest favorite of the day.

So do you judge the biggest fav by the juice on the M/L or the juice on the Run Line? So the one with the highest on - on the M/L would be considered the biggest Fav or the one with the highest - on the run line would be the biggest fav?

You would choose the biggest M/L favorite and bet the runline.

[ScreaminPain]

Bottom line: we need to know how often, based upon 2008 model, the RL hit. Was it once every 3.5 days? Once every 4 days? That's the only way for me to know the true to risk to reward ratio model on this. I don't have time to do the math, off to work.

As shown in the posted spreadsheet there were 122 days of plays. The RL hit 66 times and the -1 RL hit an additional 22 times. That means the RL can be expected once every 1.9 days. The -1 RL can be expected once every 5.6 days. You will hit ONE of these plays every 1.4 days on average.

The longest stretch that materialized was in July where 3 days passed without a RL win. There were several 2 day spreads.

On one particular grueling period in July there were 3 losses followed by 2 consecutive -1 RL days. Players on the -1.5 RL would have been on level 6, while players on the -1 would have been on level 3.

One interesting fact. The month of Aug. 2008 had only 2 plays on the RL that were + money. 28 plays had to lay money on the RL. I'm not certain how that would affect the -1 betting during that span.

Totals for the test period were:
124 plays.
66 wins at -1.5 RL.
22 wins at -1 RL.
36 losses.

Good Luck on your action...

[coreygman]

Jello Thanks for all your help on this thread, and Screamin, thanks alot for your hard work, I really like the Excel spreadsheet.

With that I am jumping in also, and will keep my info posted on here. I will be doing $30.00 bets. I will be using the Favorite on the Money Line and betting on the Run Line.

1st play looks to be the Mets by my book, also as Jello posted. So what we calling this system? I seen the label System 2009 on the first post....


MLB STRAIGHT BET [960] NYM -1½ EV ( W SILVA -R / M PELFREY -R ) Risk 30.00 / To Win 30.00

[ploben]

On one particular grueling period in July there were 3 losses followed by 2 consecutive -1 RL days. Players on the -1.5 RL would have been on level 6, while players on the -1 would have been on level 3...

...Totals for the test period were:
124 plays.
66 wins at -1.5 RL.
22 wins at -1 RL.
36 losses.

Wow...is it me or does this seem like another system the books might look at and adjust the lines (if possible) to prevent us from slamming them? I know it hasen't been back-tested past the '08 season but it never lost (going over a 6 game chase). As long as you had a bankroll that allowed for the full 6 game chase, determined by the amount you were chasing, you should have made a +66 profit per chase amount, assuming you only played the -1.5 RL system. Even chasing $10 would have yeilded a $660 profit.

The only thing that worries me is if we see more of this DURING the season and not just towards the end...

One interesting fact. The month of Aug. 2008 had only 2 plays on the RL that were + money. 28 plays had to lay money on the RL. I'm not certain how that would affect the -1 betting during that span.

If for some reason the books started inflating the RL then it might lose it's value if we happen to hit a 6 game losing streak. OR just make the board fav. a - RL.

I kinda saw it yesterday with ATL and BOS. ATL was the ML fav. on the board at +110 RL. BOS was about 10 points less the favorite (like if ATL was -200 then BOS was -190) but BOS's RL was EV. The books almost expected BOS ML to move to a bigger fav. but forced early play to the ML instead of the RL. It seems like if this shifted to the biggest fav. on the board (today, NYM -200 ML, EV RL) we might see less value up front from the RL because of expected action on the NYM or the books catchign on to the system, like they did with CK's.

The bottom line is there might be 2 ways to look at playing this.

1) Hit a favorite early because they will receive more action as the day goes on and move the RL from + to EV or even -

2) Wait to bet because the opp. team (underdog) might get more action if the books try to anticipate us and have to deflate an already inflated line.

Hope this makes sense and/or adds useful info to the subject.

[jellobiafra]

I'm almost tempted to just start playing the biggest ML favorite with (+) RL odds. Or pick just one of any ML favorite at -150 or more and (+) RL odds. I've said several times in this thread that I don't think it would really make a difference if you picked the biggest ML favorite or just one of the biggest ML favorites every day. I'm confident that there are two or three teams a day that are pretty much interchangeable in this system. I don't think it's really anything the books can completely juice out of existence.

But before we start thinking about how we're going to have the books plugging holes across the bow, let's see how this thing plays out for longer than say.... a week.

[ploben]

But before we start thinking about how we're going to have the books plugging holes across the bow, let's see how this thing plays out for longer than say.... a week.

Haha...tru-che. I jumped on with ATL and my roommate is a NYM fan so I'll be cheering for them tonight. 2-0 after tonight!

[coreygman]

I'm almost tempted to just start playing the biggest ML favorite with (+) RL odds. Or pick just one of any ML favorite at -150 or more and (+) RL odds. I've said several times in this thread that I don't think it would really make a difference if you picked the biggest ML favorite or just one of the biggest ML favorites every day. I'm confident that there are two or three teams a day that are pretty much interchangeable in this system. I don't think it's really anything the books can completely juice out of existence.

But before we start thinking about how we're going to have the books plugging holes across the bow, let's see how this thing plays out for longer than say.... a week.

thats a thought, but ya lets see how this first system works out first. I do really like the thoughts on the system and gives a person a way to win, if they have the money to go through the chases!

so on your guys books, do you have a lot in the + on the Run Line when its - on the Money Line? Today I noticed my Mets bet was even, when you got +100 on the Run Line

[Machine Choice]

If you play the -1 system in any fashion (whether risking one unit or atempting to win 1 unit) you have to chase at a significantly higher level after a straight-up loss than you would have if you had just played the RL. That's the danger of the -1 play. If you suffer three straight-up losses your bankroll is done. Do the math for yourself and you'll see.

[G's pks]

Machine does this mean your thread is dead?

[Machine Choice]

Machine does this mean your thread is dead?

I don't know. I can't make up my mind whether I want to do this or just do 2-team parlays. I think this system has potential, but I need to be able to chase all the way to 6 games and I don't have $6,300 to do that.

[G's pks]

I don't know. I can't make up my mind whether I want to do this or just do 2-team parlays. I think this system has potential, but I need to be able to chase all the way to 6 games and I don't have $6,300 to do that.

Machine trying to pick games this time of year is a crap shoot... I think you are doing fine... A couple of good parlay hits and you will be in good shape... I noticed this system the first day they posted it...very interesting. I do not want to anger anyone....might also take a look at the JM system on a modified basis... Will be looking through the JM baseball system this week... Obviously this one has looked great up to now...keep up the great work guys!

GL G.