System Integrity?

[bsebal7]

Gentlemen,

I appreciate all the research that everybody has done towards this system....I"m glad I posted what I found on this forum as the knowledge base with the research here seems to be unparalleled to that of the other forums from what I have seen thus far.

[rightmow]

Yes, there is an increase in losses in the short term with this strategy. You're wagering more to save yourself from having to go further with the chase. I think the risk is worth the reward, especially if it proves to hit by the 3rd chase of the series.


Here's a model formula for anyone that may be confused on this money line hedge. If you are getting (+) odds on the Run Line, you can structure your wager as so:



Place a Run Line wager where the amount wagered PLUS the amount to win is equal to the total amount you are chasing.

Then place a Money Line wager where the amount to win equals the amount of the Run Line wager you placed.



You will of course be betting more money this way than you would have needed to win the same amount betting just the run line. However if the team you are betting wins by 1 run, you push because your Money Line bet will cover the loss from your Run Line wager. Your next bet is not an escalator as you go right back to chasing the same amount as the previous wager.

So if this system is the case. Won't your next bet be a bigger escalator if the ML does not hit. Then both go down

[jellobiafra]

Gentlemen,

I appreciate all the research that everybody has done towards this system....I"m glad I posted what I found on this forum as the knowledge base with the research here seems to be unparalleled to that of the other forums from what I have seen thus far.

Hello again. Turning into quite a monster you've created...

[jellobiafra]

So if this system is the case. Won't your next bet be a bigger escalator if the ML does not hit. Then both go down

Yes it will. This is insurance. It's not free. The benefit is that - if last year's form holds - this model will prevent you from having to chase past 3 games. So as I said, in the short term it's more expensive but in the long run it proves less risky. That's the definition of insurance my friend. BOL.

[Machine Choice]

If my two-team parlay system isn't working well, I will join this system in 17 days. Good luck guys.

[bsebal7]

bsebal7, what picks are you playing.

Brooks

I"m sorry I"m just now responding to this post...I"ve been out of town and wanted to get back to you. I don't overcomplicate things as I don't have the time to do so with my job. I simply play the heaviest favorite each day on the RL and do the 6 game chase. I will be honest...with all the great additional insight that I have seen in this thread...I am also doing a smaller 3 game chase too as it seems that most of the time this chase does not surpass the 3 games and should allow for more profit this year.

Keep in mind though...Chases are very risky...I do not risk a lot of money on these games because 1 lose can drain you. I allocate the majority of my wagers towards my everyday selections that I have (typically 2-3 plays) using the statfox sheets and some very knowledgable cappers that I know. I hope this helps!!!!

[bsebal7]

Hello again. Turning into quite a monster you've created...

Jellio,

Huge props to you for your leadership in the thread. I have been getting caught up over the past day and you and the guys have really done an outstanding job researching the integrity of this system.

[bsebal7]

I hear you but this was something I mentioned yesterday when the SFG opened as the biggest favorite on the M/L and +140 on the R/L, but the D-Backs were the biggest favorite on the R/L (+135) and only the 2nd biggest fav on the ML. I said yesterday that I was going to stick to the day's biggest favorite to WIN and play them on the R/L, because I think that is how this is meant to be played. Also remember that there are going to be days where the biggest fav on the R/L is a tie with a few teams. Yesterday there were a couple teams that were +140. But the Giants were the biggest favorite on the board to win their game.

We are still hashing it out so I'm open to changing my opinion on this. There's definitely some ambiguity with baseball lines. For now though I'm sticking with biggest M/L favorite on the board to keep things consistent. Yesterday that play was the Giants. Today it's the Dodgers.

Jello,

You are 100% correct. The system was to find the biggest ML favorite...and play them on the RL. That's it gentlemen. No reason to complicate things. However, there are a lot of angles and twists that can be put on this to enhance the system I would presume with some of the research that has been done thus far on this thread by all of you. It's 100% up to you...but as far as how I play the system and as far as how it read....Biggest favorite (ML) and play them on the RL -1.5 each day.

[bsebal7]

No one has even back tested it with MLB yet...

Duke,

That was the primary reason in posting the system integrity on this thread. The validity as to whether it was factual or not was not known at the time when I came across the system, however, it appears to have some solidified results from the '08 season as it was posted on the thread. There will be an array of sports...angles...twists..that can potentially be put on this....bottom line is hopefully we can all make some $$ off this and help each other out!!! Thanks!!

[bsebal7]

Interseting Facts about this system:

If you used this system at the $100 level to win 1 unit every day for the rest of this season, you would need a starting bankroll of $6,300 (assuming that you had to chase to six games at least once).

At the $50 level, you would need a starting roll of $3,150.

At the $25 level, you would need a starting roll of $1,575.

If you started using this system today for the remainder of the season, and it never failed, you would make the following profit at the end of the season for each level:

$100 level: $15,700
$50 level: $7,850
$25 level: $3,925

If the system was modified to a 5-game chase instead of a 6-game chase, you would need the following starting bankrolls:

$100 level: $1,600
$50 level: $800
$25 level: $400

I am considering coming in at the $100 level for a 5-chase only.

Machine,

This is awesome!! I appreciate the time and research on your post. I always do the 6 game chase but have been contemplating incorporating a smaller 3 or 4 game chase as well to help even more with the bankroll. Do you have a database that can show where the as you did in this post...where you would be with a 3 game chase...4 game chase...etc.

Great post man!!! Thanks!!!

[rightmow]

so is it atlanta today or is it boston

[dchecks]

I love this thread!!! Thanks everybody for the stats and info!!! The sysetm is legit, the key is money management. Jello what do you mean by no escalator bets? Here is an example of what I feel is the way to make money on this system . Please tell me if this is the wrong way to go about it:

Bet A -130 for $100 is a loss
Bet B +100 for $230($130 to make up for loss of vig in Bet A and $100 for Bet B) and is Win

now I made up the loss of money in Bet A and made $100 on top for Bet B.. I understand that by time the chase gets to 5 or 6 games it could get a bit pricey, but IT WILL pay off. Thanks everyone in advance for the answers and suggestions.

Go Braves!!!! (at least for today)

[jellobiafra]

Jello,

You are 100% correct. The system was to find the biggest ML favorite...and play them on the RL. That's it gentlemen. No reason to complicate things. However, there are a lot of angles and twists that can be put on this to enhance the system I would presume with some of the research that has been done thus far on this thread by all of you. It's 100% up to you...but as far as how I play the system and as far as how it read....Biggest favorite (ML) and play them on the RL -1.5 each day.

bsbal7,

Thanks for the validation. That's been my mindset for this thing - don't complicate it. I've even said in previous posts that I don't think it would really matter if we took the top 2 or 3 favorites each day, threw them in a hat and picked one. I have a feeling the results would be similar. I'm also using morning lines from BetJam. Who knows if there aren't going to be (or haven't already been) books with a slightly bigger favorite? Or that the team that's the favorite in the morning was actually 2nd favorite when the line came out the previous afternoon?

The point is this isn't rocket science and I don't think it's utterly necessary to have finely tuned, razor sharp rules of selection. I just want to keep the standard consistent, because if we allow for ambiguity we could all be playing a different team half the time and then who knows what is what?

The beauty of this system is in it's simplicity....and so far in it's results.

[jellobiafra]

so is it atlanta today or is it boston

Today's Play is ATLANTA

[jellobiafra]

I love this thread!!! Thanks everybody for the stats and info!!! The sysetm is legit, the key is money management. Jello what do you mean by no escalator bets? Here is an example of what I feel is the way to make money on this system . Please tell me if this is the wrong way to go about it:

Bet A -130 for $100 is a loss
Bet B +100 for $230($130 to make up for loss of vig in Bet A and $100 for Bet B) and is Win

now I made up the loss of money in Bet A and made $100 on top for Bet B.. I understand that by time the chase gets to 5 or 6 games it could get a bit pricey, but IT WILL pay off. Thanks everyone in advance for the answers and suggestions.

Go Braves!!!! (at least for today)

I'm not exactly sure what you're asking because I'm starting to get focused on games and my attention is short. If you're asking about the principles of a chase, I think you have it. You make an initial "A" bet on the Run Line. Whatever amount your wager pays is the profit you will be chasing for the series of bets. If bet "A" loses, your next bet (bet "B") will need to have a payout equal to all previous losses PLUS the original profit you were chasing.

Hope that helps. BOL.

[bsebal7]

bsbal7,

Thanks for the validation. That's been my mindset for this thing - don't complicate it. I've even said in previous posts that I don't think it would really matter if we took the top 2 or 3 favorites each day, threw them in a hat and picked one. I have a feeling the results would be similar. I'm also using morning lines from BetJam. Who knows if there aren't going to be (or haven't already been) books with a slightly bigger favorite? Or that the team that's the favorite in the morning was actually 2nd favorite when the line came out the previous afternoon?

The point is this isn't rocket science and I don't think it's utterly necessary to have finely tuned, razor sharp rules of selection. I just want to keep the standard consistent, because if we allow for ambiguity we could all be playing a different team half the time and then who knows what is what?

The beauty of this system is in it's simplicity....and so far in it's results.

Jello,

No problem....thanks for your leadership with the posts!!! What are your thoughts on doing a 3 game chase or even 4 game chase within the 6? Do you have a database that can compile those results and where we would be with the profits versus that of the 6 game chase? It's nice to see the 0 losses in the '08 season...but it doesn't necessarily mean that it won't lose in '09 at least 1 game so money management is key obviously...and it does appear that a lot of the games win within the first 1,2,or 3 games of the chase. Thoughts?

[dchecks]

Perfect answer!!! Thanks.

[jellobiafra]

You should check the spreadsheets from ScreaminPain's post that I quoted this morning. I haven't done any research on this. As far as 3 game chases, I'm going to use the -1 run line model that we've been talking about this morning as well. If your book doesn't offer that line then you can creat it yourself by hedging a run line bet with a money line bet. You have to bet more, but under that model last year no chase went past 3 games.

Here's my post on this from earlier:

Yes, there is an increase in losses in the short term with this strategy. You're wagering more to save yourself from having to go further with the chase. I think the risk is worth the reward, especially if it proves to hit by the 3rd chase of the series.


Here's a model formula for anyone that may be confused on this money line hedge. If you are getting (+) odds on the Run Line, you can structure your wager as so:



Place a Run Line wager where the amount wagered PLUS the amount to win is equal to the total amount you are chasing.

Then place a Money Line wager where the amount to win equals the amount of the Run Line wager you placed.



You will of course be betting more money this way than you would have needed to win the same amount betting just the run line. However if the team you are betting wins by 1 run, you push because your Money Line bet will cover the loss from your Run Line wager. Your next bet is not an escalator as you go right back to chasing the same amount as the previous wager.

[Marvelboy]

Thanks so much for doing this guys, im gunna get aboard tonight after reading all the positives. If i have this right though your basically aiming to win your the same as your stake over the 6 games?

So if your betting $100 the aim is once youve won the $100 to start again? as the runline is mostly going to be even money?

so $100 x 2.10

$200 x 2.1

$400 x 2.1 if this wins then you make around $100

This is correct ???

[bsebal7]

CashMoney --

I've been basing my assumptions on ScreaminPain's post below. Looks like his numbers and your differ a little. With yours it sounds a little more risky. That's why I'm planning on using ScreaminPain's M/L hedge model that he posted about earlier in the thread. Hedge the R/L bet with a M/L split and you can achieve a push on 1 run wins. His research showed there to be no chases over 3 games using that addition. Of course I didn't use it yesterday when it was available and if I had it would have resulted in a push. I feel doubly confident in the Braves tonight - I'm betting my B amount plus another unit on this one.

Great posts..... a -1RL bet...and 4 game chase since no games ever made it to 4 games in '08 could be onto something there potentially. Good info!!!

[jellobiafra]

Guys, this is still the early testing period for this thing. We only have it back tested through last season and that's in on games from May-August. We don't even have testing from April. What I'm trying to say is be careful. It scares me to see people talking about jumping on this thing right now for $100 bets. I'm betting $10 right now until we get a better feel for it's potential. This could still blow up in our faces.


PLEASE BE CAREFUL

[bsebal7]

Gentlemen,

Does anybody have the -1RL Excel Spreadsheet formula/program?

[jellobiafra]

bsebal7,

Try these that ScreaminPain posted.


REF: POST #55

http://www.mediafire.com/file/qlgyhyj0lju/RUN LINE CHASE.xlsx
http://www.mediafire.com/file/oewy3t...ChaseData2.xls

[Machine Choice]

On your way to another winner.

[dchecks]

Well, the system is so far so good!! Another win today. Lets have a huge week starting tomorrow!!!!!

[trinitiy]

ATL Winner....yummy yummy.

[jellobiafra]

I'm still preaching caution, but so far....so good.




Current System Record: 4-0 (4-3 overall plays)

[DukeJohn]

I backtested it for 2008 using May 1st through Aug 31st......read all the posts before you jump in with a statement like that....shezzzz!!!

I meant really back testing it... One year is not considered back testing at all... If you were to try and make a formula for success and only used one year as your sample size then I am afraid you would fail. I apologize if I was not clear enough for you...

Furthermore I had congratulated you earlier on your work, so to quote you: "read all the posts before you jump in with a statement like that....shezzzz!!!"

[brooks85]

I would like to see this idea back tested a few years and check it for the NHL. If anyone knows where I can find the days largest ML fav and the runline/spread for the past 5 years let me know, I need something to do at work tomorrow.

[jellobiafra]

I need something to do at work tomorrow.

[jellobiafra]

I knew with just the hint of success, out would come the haters. DukeJohn, welcome to the thread.

[Machine Choice]

Looks like tomorrow's play is going to be the Mets?

[bobby heenan]

ive been following this thread since it started....and playing the system....looks really good...might start raising my bet

[jellobiafra]

It appears so. I've been posting the picks based on the morning before I head to work at 6:30 EST. I don't think anybody is going to pass the Mets at -184 and I don't see them coming back to the field. So yeah, I expect it to be the Mets. First night in the new stadium. West coast team heading East with no day off. I like this spot for an "A" win.

[netinfo]

Which books offer a -1 RL?

netinfo