System Integrity?

[jellobiafra]

I hear you but this was something I mentioned yesterday when the SFG opened as the biggest favorite on the M/L and +140 on the R/L, but the D-Backs were the biggest favorite on the R/L (+135) and only the 2nd biggest fav on the ML. I said yesterday that I was going to stick to the day's biggest favorite to WIN and play them on the R/L, because I think that is how this is meant to be played. Also remember that there are going to be days where the biggest fav on the R/L is a tie with a few teams. Yesterday there were a couple teams that were +140. But the Giants were the biggest favorite on the board to win their game.

We are still hashing it out so I'm open to changing my opinion on this. There's definitely some ambiguity with baseball lines. For now though I'm sticking with biggest M/L favorite on the board to keep things consistent. Yesterday that play was the Giants. Today it's the Dodgers.

[jellobiafra]

deleted post (wasn't showing the one above as posted so I retyped one)

[do5000]

jello,

thanks for the clarification.
I'll stick with the normal system and add in the ML bet when possible.

Whats the magic number to make sure its a - on the ML and + on the RL?

[jellobiafra]

Don't know. I don't think the R/L is completely tied to the M/L. Just looking at BetJam today and I see teams that are bigger favorites on the M/L than another favorite but the other favorite is a bigger favorite on the R/L. StL is -150 M/L but only +125 R/L while FLA is -142 M/L but +150 R/L. The two lines are obviously linked to each other but there's also some level of independence to them.

That's why in order to stay consistent here I think we should use the biggest M/L favorite every day. If there is a tie on that account, maybe then we go with R/L and if that is a tie we can go to the totals line and bet the team that is favored to be in the higher scoring game.

[jhause13]

So you're looking at the biggest money line favorite rather than looking at the biggest run line favorite but still betting on the run line correct? I've just been picking the biggest run line favorite.

[jellobiafra]

Yes, but I honestly don't think it would matter. I think these bets would be just as likely to cash if you played one of the top 2 heavy favorites at your discretion. But for the sake of consistency and charting, I'm going with heaviest M/L fav. The play today is LAD.

[peterpan19]

you guys know that there are books which offer RL (-1) !
I just checked with my book for the FLA game today as an example...RL +138 ML -148 -> calc RL(-1) would be -103 -> book offers -107 ... so its a bit more expensive but I guess you could live with the little difference ? or what do you think guys ??

GL for today

[do5000]

i think the ML + RL (1.5) is better because it allows you to profit from the favorite covering the 1.5 points (if they do).
they look to be the same thing except using two bets you win more if the favorite covers.

either way, goooooo LAD

[mixpicks]

Obviously, One Would Need A Big Bankroll, for this or any Case System.
This is kind of what I did last season, except the opposite, Played Biggest Dog, which was also, 75% and more public on the Favorite, Playing these Big Dog, One Only Has To Win in the 40% for nice profits, and you don't have to "Case" These Plays Are Called te "Square Plays" sure most know what those are>? Again, playing these one will make a profit, ust have to stick with it. Square Plays, have been documented on paper for the past 3 years, with a win rate on average at 53% all plays are +150 and Higher, All Lopsided Games...
Just another method for the portfilio/ BOL/

[mixpicks]

M/L and Runline, On The Same Team? Why Not Take Both Teams? Wouldn't that make more sence, and give you another option to win. Maybe, Dog M/L Fav. on the Runline.

[jellobiafra]

Yeah. I had a feeling that was out there somewhere. BetJam doesn't appear to offer it. That would make this system pretty friggin strong.

[peterpan19]

Yeah. I had a feeling that was out there somewhere. BetJam doesn't appear to offer it. That would make this system pretty friggin strong.

? what was out there ?

[jellobiafra]

The -1 run line. But now that I think about it, do5000 makes a good point. The reward is better the way we've been discussing because you get a bonus if they win by 2 or more.


Edit:
Actually I don't think that's right. You get the same payout, maybe fractionally better odds doing it this way. I don't know. I'm confusing myself now. I'm gonna just fall back on the simplicity this system provides us. I'll let the more mathematically gifted figure out where the advantages may lie.

[lego21]

Looks very interesting. Might give this a try starting after todays games.

[peterpan19]

jellobiafra

well... I actually wanted to write that it limits the losses and maybe even cuts down on the chase...

e.g. today with the dodgers

like if you always play to win $20.... the RL is +100 you have to risk $20 to win it

with RL (-1) its -135 you have to risk $27 to win it too....

now lets say the dodgers win by 1...you loose 20 on the RL and now you have to win $40 the next time to make up for it, for RL (-1) you push and you start again with $20 the next day

now if the dodgers loose ... for thr RL its the same like above.... for RL (-1) you now have to win $47 the next time...

so the question would be now: How often would you have a push instead of a loss ? And would it cut down on the chase -> would it reduce the 6-game chase we had last year ?

its a bit confusing... but it could work, depending on how many games the biggest gav won by only 1 instead of 2 or more ?

[jellobiafra]

You should check out the spreadsheets that ScreaminPain linked in a previous post. It might answer some of those questions. I can't think anymore about this. I just want to play it for a few and let it work itself out in practical terms. LOL. Thanks for the reply.

By the way, I've already gained enough confidence in this - based on SiP's research - to up my bets to a $20 chase.

[NOPHUN]

Whats todays play for the system?

[jhause13]

Dodgers RL

[Reno Gambler]

I stupid, do you mean as a favorite -210 or +180 on the run line as the biggest line. Also if you have two games with the same highest r/l do you bet both or pick one??
ex.
4/8 luckys sports book:
903 atl -210
907 nym -210
or
908 cin +180
904 phil +180

[jellobiafra]

You're not stupid. Maybe lazy. Your question has been answered repeatedly over the 3 pages in this thread. Not trying to be a dick, I'm just getting a little tired of repeating it....

The play is to bet the BIGGEST MONEY LINE FAVORITE on the board to WIN ON THE RUN LINE.

[jellobiafra]

LAD -110 (-1.5 runs)

Current Record: 2-0 (1-1 overall plays)

LAD 5
SD 2


WINNER



Current Record: 2-0 (2-1 overall plays)

[jhause13]

Another win.. hopefully we can keep this up.. loving this system!

[jellobiafra]

Today's play is:

STL +115 (Run Line)

Current Record: 2-0 (2-1 overall plays)



This is an afternoon game guys and girls. Also has (+) odds on the R/L so you could hedge the bet with a M/L split. Don't ask me how to do it, it's in this thread. You're gonna have to do your own math too. I'm not bothering with the hedge today, though. Playing this one straight as I feel an easy cover.

[CashMoney]

This system seems pretty good. I made an easy $9.09 yesterday and am playing this everyday from here on out. With a big enough bankroll a person could make some serious bank with this system.

Inceasing my plays to $20 a game from here on out. With you all on the Cards R/L.....

[jellobiafra]

Today was a loss. The Cardinals won the game but lost the bet. If you hedged your wager with a portion on the M/L you pushed and would still be on bet A for tomorrow's game. I didn't hedge so tomorrow is a B bet for me.


Current System Record: 2-0 (2-2 overall plays)

[dchecks]

Alright folks I've read the last three pages and i'm in too!! Looking at tomorrow it looks like the Braves are gonna be the play, unless I have no idea what I'm doing. Jellobiafra you seem to be the ring leader here so keep the updates and post coming, and thanks for the info!!!!!!!!

[jellobiafra]

Braves are as of now. I'm going to making these calls as of the morning lines... basically whatever it is when I check them before work at 6:30am EST. I'm using BetJam and those lines are released the afternoon before. I really don't think it needs to be that precise. I think if you threw the top 2 or 3 favorites in a hat every night this thing would probably strike just as often. But for consistencies sake that is how I'm selecting these picks and that is how I will continue.

So to make a short answer long, there is no pick yet. But it does look like the Braves will be the clear M/L favorite over the Nats. The Braves are skipping the bottom half of their rotation and going right back to D Lowe for tomorrow's game. I feel good about the potential matchup as a "B" bet.

[brooks85]

bsebal7, what picks are you playing.

[jellobiafra]

Today's play is a B bet as yesterday's play was a loss. No surprise on this one as Atlanta hosts the Nats at Turner Field for the home opener.



Today's Play: ATL +100 (Run Line)

Current System Record: 2-0 (2-2 overall plays)

[jhause13]

Do you avoid taking the Yankees on purpose jello or is it just a coincidence. I'm pretty sure they were the bigger favorite 2 days in a row now haha.

[jellobiafra]

I've explained how I'm selecting these several times. The Braves are -200 right now on the M/L and the Yankees aren't even close at -160. Yesterday the Cardinals were a clear favorite on the M/L. If you want to play the Yankees, then play the Yankees. If people want to keep arguing with the selections I'm posting, then they are free to make their own and post them and it can be a free for all in here (which I won't be participating in). I'm going to continue playing these and posting them under the guidelines that are established. Admittedly those guidelines are somewhat established be me, but I think they are as true to the principles as can be. If someone wants to take this over feel free. I'm going to continue to play the biggest M/L favorite of the day on the R/L.

[CashMoney]

I back tracked this system for the entire 2008 season. Final result would have been 92 wins if played from March 30th through September 29th. 87 wins would probable be the key number as the last week of the season wouldn't be smart to play.

There was a total of a 6 game chase three times and a 5 game chase 3 times as well. There were a total of 7 DOUBLE days where they're would have been 7 days were two teams opened with the same ML.

There was a possibility of ONE seven game chase from April 8th to April 14th. On April 14th two teams opened with the same ML. One team won while the other team lost.

All in all it's a good system and some serious damage can be done with a large enough bankroll.

[jellobiafra]

CashMoney --

I've been basing my assumptions on ScreaminPain's post below. Looks like his numbers and your differ a little. With yours it sounds a little more risky. That's why I'm planning on using ScreaminPain's M/L hedge model that he posted about earlier in the thread. Hedge the R/L bet with a M/L split and you can achieve a push on 1 run wins. His research showed there to be no chases over 3 games using that addition. Of course I didn't use it yesterday when it was available and if I had it would have resulted in a push. I feel doubly confident in the Braves tonight - I'm betting my B amount plus another unit on this one.

First, let me preface this with a disclaimer as to EXACT accuracy.

I've gone thru 2008 from May 1st thru Aug. 31st. I used opening lines and rounded to the dollar. In 2 instances the game that included "largest favorite" for that day was postponed due to weather, so I used the 2nd largest fav.

Results were 121 plays
1 6-game chase
1 5-game chase
6 4-game chases
7 3-game chases
**- the rest were either 1 or 2 game chases.

Aug. 31st ended up +65.6 units

Some interesting facts. During entire mo. of Aug. you had to lay odds on the run line....in one case -155 (yikes). In the month of May only 9 plays were at (-) money with the largest lay being -115 twice. Aug. had NO chases longer than 2 games.

Inherent with chases, is the fact you'll need to lay a big number to get back previous losses. The largest amount needed was for the single 6 game chase in July. If you were using $10 units, a lay of $327 was required......figure your own value if you chose different units.

It's apparent that this method will work, but of course, ALL chases will work if you have the bankroll. I guess it's up to individual preferences to determine if the reward is worth the risk.

This was a pain in the butt to compile, however it may answer some questions. As always, good luck with you action.

[do5000]

I tried a few examples of using screaminpain's ML/RL insurance vs using -1 for the RL (instead of -1.5).
Using pinnacle lines, there was almost no difference.

As an example for todays game,
if you take ATL -1, it would cost you $10.00 to win $6.67, with pinny lines of -150 for a rl of -1 (if the ATL covers).
if you use screamins method it would cost you $10.00 to win $6.64.
(both push if the fav wins by 1).

Not every book offers the same odds of course and not all books offer a -1.
I have one account with pinny and one with sportsinteraction.
Im going to try the system as -1 RL with pinny and use screaminpain's method, when possible, with SI. I'll let you know how it goes.

gl tonight!

[CashMoney]

CashMoney --

I've been basing my assumptions on ScreaminPain's post below. Looks like his numbers and your differ a little. With yours it sounds a little more risky. That's why I'm planning on using ScreaminPain's M/L hedge model that he posted about earlier in the thread. Hedge the R/L bet with a M/L split and you can achieve a push on 1 run wins. His research showed there to be no chases over 3 games using that addition. Of course I didn't use it yesterday when it was available and if I had it would have resulted in a push. I feel doubly confident in the Braves tonight - I'm betting my B amount plus another unit on this one.

If I remember correctly his numbers were based on May through August so his numbers didn't include April or September. I don't have an exact number but trying to hedge with the ML I feel is more risky as there were many times where the fav lost straight up. With this being the case it would have been a double hit.

I'm playing the system on the straight fav RL but I'm still researching the system to fine tune it. There is definately something here just not quite sure what's the best way to go just yet.