System Integrity?

[NOPHUN]

Hey Jello... your doing a great job with this.. keep it up.. this way I dont have to track it myself..

[jhause13]

Stupid Delay

[brooks85]

has anyone back tested this system with NHL/NBA?

[DukeJohn]

has anyone back tested this system with NHL/NBA?

No one has even back tested it with MLB yet...

[dchecks]

Well Jello here we go, I believe it's day three of the chase.. Now we'll begin to see the doubters come out, but I'm still commited to the system. Early on it looks like it's gonna be the Yanks, but it also maybe the Braves again today.... Right?

[cpscincy]

does anyone know if you get the same results with this system if you take the biggest fav for the 1h moneyline?

[jellobiafra]

It's the Yankees. Fun.

[NOPHUN]

I still rollin with yu Jello lets make some $$
Yanks are

[jellobiafra]

Don't roll with me. Roll with the system if you trust it. This is NOT my system. I'm just taking a flyer on it and trying it out. I said I'd give it up to 3 game chases at the beginning. Well, I'm going to stick with that decision. So the play today is the Yankees. It is a "C" bet.


Today's Play: NYY -125 (Run Line)

System Record: 2-0 (2-3 overall plays)

[jellobiafra]

By the way, I'm waiting until tonight to pull that trigger. I think the odds could come a little bit back in our favor...if only slightly. I don't feel great about this one, but I DID feel great about the previous two so maybe it's a good sign.

[madcappa1gsez@ya]

Jello-- Great find with the system-- I am loving it-- and being a yankee fan gotta love the chase is on CC after an awful outing-- GO YANKS

[ScreaminPain]

No one has even back tested it with MLB yet...

I backtested it for 2008 using May 1st through Aug 31st......read all the posts before you jump in with a statement like that....shezzzz!!!

Well Jello here we go, I believe it's day three of the chase.. Now we'll begin to see the doubters come out, but I'm still commited to the system.

This a perfect example of how best to use the -1 RL as discussed earlier. You are now 3 games into the chase and will need to bet at level 3 to capture your loses and put you up 1 unit. If you had bet the -1 RL on each of the games you would still be betting a single unit to win 1 unit for this chase, (both the previous games were won by a run) A big difference in outlay, but the same result.

Good luck on your action...

[NOPHUN]

Pain I dont think my book offers -1 run lines... I do agree that 1 run would be the better way to go.. But I am a believer in this system and will see it through.. has to be some value in this..

[jellobiafra]

Yankees win! The ah ah ah ah ah ah Yankees win!



System Record: 3-0 (3-3 overall plays)

[trinitiy]

system look promising jello. hope it keeps cashing!

[jhause13]

[icsky3]

Great job guys, I had yankees RL today as well and I thought about this system before I placed the bet. I'm not using it so much as a chase, because I play most of the board daily, but I will continue to play the bets from this system throughout the year. BOL fellas.

[jellobiafra]

If you are not using it as a chase may I make a suggestion? Wait until we are on a "C" bet or at least a "B" bet, unless the play is one you would have made anyway with no knowledge of this system. If you are just playing these picks every day for equal units, you'd be down money right now.

Just a suggestion. BOL.

[jellobiafra]

Ok folks, the system won on a "C" bet last night. Never made us sweat with the Yankees jumping on the Royals like a virgin on his prom date. (Will somebody pull Nick Swisher off of Horacio Ramirez?)


Today we head back to Georgia where the weather didn't cooperate two nights ago. We had Derek Lowe and a 3-1 lead in the 4th. Then the sky's opened up, the Braves' bullpen door opened up, and the lead melted away like the wicked witch of the west. Fate brings us back to Atlanta for a rematch with this run line today. Young and budding ace Jair Jurrjens takes the hill for the Braves against a pitcher they've had success against, Scott Olsen (formerly of the Marlins). We'll get the Braves at even money to cover.



Today's play: ATL +100 (Run Line)

Current System Record: 3-0 (3-3 overall plays)

[jellobiafra]

Word to the wise.... I just checked BetJam (the source of record here) and the line has moved from +100 to +110. You may want to keep an eye on that movement in this spot. May be a little bit better odds as we get closer to 1st pitch.

[ebbearsfb1]

braves -1.5 is the play?

[Machine Choice]

This looks good. I'm thinking of doing it with the following filter:

1. Must be a home team

[Machine Choice]

Interseting Facts about this system:

If you used this system at the $100 level to win 1 unit every day for the rest of this season, you would need a starting bankroll of $6,300 (assuming that you had to chase to six games at least once).

At the $50 level, you would need a starting roll of $3,150.

At the $25 level, you would need a starting roll of $1,575.

If you started using this system today for the remainder of the season, and it never failed, you would make the following profit at the end of the season for each level:

$100 level: $15,700
$50 level: $7,850
$25 level: $3,925

If the system was modified to a 5-game chase instead of a 6-game chase, you would need the following starting bankrolls:

$100 level: $1,600
$50 level: $800
$25 level: $400

I am considering coming in at the $100 level for a 5-chase only.

[jellobiafra]

You really don't like those road teams, do you? On first glance it might be a good filter, but somebody else in the thread had some good points on this. The visiting team in a 9th inning tie game is going to try to score as many runs as possible. In the same situation for the home team the game ends once they score 1 run, and this bet loses (unless it's a walk-off homer with runners on). That alone gives me reason for pause. Last night the Yankees were the play in KC.

One of the nice thing about this chase, if you decide to join the fray, is the fact that you're often getting plus odds on the plays, or at worst slight (-) odds. Keeps the ante escalation down as opposed to the NBA Morrison chase where you're buying 3 pts every game at -170 and then chasing profit and losses thereafter.



ebbearsfb1 -- Yes, Braves R/L or -1.5 is the play today. It is an "A" bet.

[ScreaminPain]

This looks good. I'm thinking of doing it with the following filter:

1. Must be a home team

I know that seems to be a likely filter, however, history shows a different perspective.

Analyzing the Run Line

Many of you love betting the Run Line, especially with the heavy favorites because of the reduced chalk. In fact, you can turn a -150 Money Line Favorite into a Run Line Underdog. The reduced juice keeps your risk low.
The oddsmakers use the standard fact that 70% of Winners beat the Run Line to calculate the Run Line odds.
The first thing I wanted to test was how teams with a certain money line odds performed on the Run Line. Is there a correlation between the odds a team has and how it performs against the run line?

Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up:

League Wide: 72.5%
+200 or more: 70.2%
+190s: 77.0%
+180s: 76.4%
+170s: 67.4%
+160s: 75.3%
+150s: 72.9%
+140s: 70.9%
+130s: 73.5%
+120s: 68.0%
+110s: 72.4%
+100s: 72.9%
-100s: 68.9%
-110s: 70.6%
-120s: 72.4%
-130s: 72.4%
-140s: 74.7%
-150s: 74.5%
-160s: 75.3%
-170s: 71.9%
-180s: 70.8%
-190s: 77.5%
-200s: 76.2%


Favorites that are -120 or better beat the runline at a higher percentage than the league average (73.6%). In fact, this indicates that betting the runline on these teams will generally be better than betting the money line. Turn these favorites into a dog.

Nevertheless, a more striking point worth noting is the Home-Away Dynamics of the Run Line.
Probability of winning by more than 1 run given that the team wins the game straight up.

Home Teams: 68.5%
Road Teams: 77.1%
Home Favorites: 69.7%
Road Favorites: 79.1%
Road Favorites better than -120: 80.1%

Analyzing it further, we see that Road Teams in the Money Line Odds range of better than -120 specified in our earlier table beat the Run Line 80% of the time when conditioned on winning the game. There is a 10% difference in covering the Run Line for the Road Team than for the Home Team.
The reason for this is quite simple: Home Teams that win the game do not have to bat in the bottom of the 9th. Road teams that win the game still bat in the Top of the 9th. That means the Road winner has 12.5% more at-bats than the corresponding home favorite.

Let us statistically model this scenario to show us how it works. During any half inning, the expected value of runs scored is 0.5. This means that the expected value of number of half innings necessary to score 1 full run would be approximately every 2 half innings. The home teams beats the Run Line with a 70% probability. This means that for every 100 games, they are ahead by more than 1 run going into bottom of the 9th 70 times and only ahead by 1 run going into the bottom half of the 9th 30 times. Since the home team wins, there is no need to bat in the 9th. Conversely, for the road team, they will be batting all 100 of those times. Of those 30 times, the expected number of games for them to score an extra run necessary to beat the run line is 15. This is an increase of 15%!! Reality only shows a 10% improvement and this can be explained by the fact that although the average number of runs per half innings is 0.5. They will not be spreading 1 run every 2 games. They will be held scoreless about 66% of the time and for the remaining 33% of the time score 1 or more runs.

[jellobiafra]

One other note Machine --
If your book offers -1 run lines, it would be to your benefit to use this. ScreaminPain's research from last season shows that with -1 lines this chase never went past 3 games. You can also use a money line/run line split to hedge the bet when the run line is offered at (+) odds, in order to achieve a -1 spread. Under that set up, if your team wins by 1 the money line bet winnings cover your run line bet wager - thus you push and your next bet is not an escalator.

[jellobiafra]

Thanks again Screamin'. I've been getting occasional credit in this thread that is undeserved. All I'm doing is keeping a record and posting the picks. You've done all the heavy lifting.

[Machine Choice]

I am TORN!

If I came in at the $100 level the most I could make off of this system is $15,700 and that's a 5-game chase (I wouldn't even be using the system properly). It's not worth it to me to do this at any other level. The question is, could I make more than $15,000 by hitting 50-55% of two-teamers using Heaven's Gate pyramidical betting with a starting bet of $186? I don't know.

[Machine Choice]

I am TORN!

If I came in at the $100 level the most I could make off of this system is $15,700 and that's a 5-game chase (I wouldn't even be using the system properly). It's not worth it to me to do this at any other level. The question is, could I make more than $15,000 by hitting 50-55% of two-teamers using Heaven's Gate pyramidical betting with a starting bet of $186? I don't know.

With Heaven's Gate I never know when I am going to hit a win streak that takes my bankroll into the stratosphere. At least with this system I would have certainty (with a huge assumption that it doesn't fail).

[kmarinouofm]

real interesting... what are the stats for taking run line dogs??

[jellobiafra]

Machine, I'm bumping this post for your sake and others. If last season's history holds, you don't have to take it to 6 games or even 5.

OK, I’m back with an updated betting pattern that may satisfy the skeptics. Keep in mind the basic premise of this chase is the notion that the biggest favorite of the day cannot get swept in 6 games. We are using the Run Line to keep the wagers from escalating during the losing sequences, however we’re also asking the fav’s to win by 2 runs…..

The test period from last year, concluded the fact that NO chase went past 6 games, thereby validating the premise. However, 1 chase went the full 6 games, 1 went 5 games and 6 others went 4 games. With this new process (using the same test dates) NO chase went 4 games and only a handful went 3 games.

The following model will allow us to bet each game as a -1 Run Line instead of 1.5. This will decrease the number of losses in a chase as all games that would previously lose by a run will now become a PUSH. Ultimately, that means that the sequence would not have to increase the bet in order to remain in the chase. In the test period of May 2008 through Aug 2008, I found the number of carryovers decreased to the point of having 4 3-gm chases…..all others were 2 games or less. Thus, the amount of each wager decreased without altering the amount won over the life of the test period.
This method may be confusing to some, buy I’ll try to explain it. First, this will only work on lines that have a minus (-) number for the ML and a plus (+) number for the RL.
For an example:
BASIC WAGER= $10
Minnesota Twins -125 -1.5 (+180)
Toronto Blue Jays -175 -1.5(+170)
In the above case with Minnesota, I would bet $5.55 on the ML at -125 and 4.45 on RL at +180. Toronto bet $6.64 on the ML, and $3.36 on the RL.
Here is how it plays out.
Min wins by 2 runs= +$12.44
Min wins by 1 Run=Push
Min loses= $-10
Toronto wins by 2 runs= 9.82
Toronto wins by 1 run = Push
Toronto loses = -$10

The biggest advantage here is the fact that after a 1 run win it isn’t necessary to increase your wager as no money has been lost, whereas in the conventional chase, a 1 run win would be a LOSS and that amount would be added to the chase. The amounts vary due to the variance in the RL and ML amounts. I used the conventional method for compiling data in the test period. Along side of that I
Used the same data with a $20 basic amount coupled with the revised 1-run model.
Everything is on the spreadsheet. Excel 97 use bottom link.
http://www.mediafire.com/file/qlgyhyj0lju/RUN LINE CHASE.xlsx
http://www.mediafire.com/file/oewy3t...ChaseData2.xls

Good Luck…..

EDIT:

In addition, some books offer the -1 run line. With this feature I think this system becomes very attractive. I haven't moved any money to one of these books yet, but it's in the works.

[Machine Choice]

Holy shit, all I have to do is structure my $100 bets to form a -1 play and under that scenario last year no chase went beyond three games?

[jellobiafra]

Holy shit, all I have to do is structure my $100 bets to form a -1 play and under that scenario last year no chase went beyond three games?

But unless your book offers that -1 line, you can only manipulate it yourself with (+) odds run lines.

[Bluehorseshoe]

One other note Machine --
If your book offers -1 run lines, it would be to your benefit to use this. ScreaminPain's research from last season shows that with -1 lines this chase never went past 3 games. You can also use a money line/run line split to hedge the bet when the run line is offered at (+) odds, in order to achieve a -1 spread. Under that set up, if your team wins by 1 the money line bet winnings cover your run line bet wager - thus you push and your next bet is not an escalator.

But it can be an escalator by using the -1 spread if you lose any of the bets. You're not getting plus money anymore where you might be on -1 1/2 run line. You're definitely laying a price by betting the -1.

[jellobiafra]

Yes, there is an increase in losses in the short term with this strategy. You're wagering more to save yourself from having to go further with the chase. I think the risk is worth the reward, especially if it proves to hit by the 3rd chase of the series.


Here's a model formula for anyone that may be confused on this money line hedge. If you are getting (+) odds on the Run Line, you can structure your wager as so:



Place a Run Line wager where the amount wagered PLUS the amount to win is equal to the total amount you are chasing.

Then place a Money Line wager where the amount to win equals the amount of the Run Line wager you placed.



You will of course be betting more money this way than you would have needed to win the same amount betting just the run line. However if the team you are betting wins by 1 run, you push because your Money Line bet will cover the loss from your Run Line wager. Your next bet is not an escalator as you go right back to chasing the same amount as the previous wager.