Pendulum Cycle Theory: MLB chase experiment

arpeggiomeister · 04-23-14, 09:48 AM

The Parlay chase and Parlay Matrix covered. We are on the 4^th
tier with the underdog and I will call the over under chase tier 3.5
even though that is not fully accurate. We had a push and I added
$10 to keep the Grand Martingale going. The underdog and over under
chases are starting to get expensive. We will see how far they go.

So far I have been very pleased with the parlay chase. If it
keeps up I will be able to hit my target by some time in June and
pull out of the MLB and start preparing for the NFL. The Parlay
Matrix has also performed well but only having two tiers is very
scary. I am not ready to trust my fate to that.

Here are today's plays.

Underdog chase

ARI
+118

$114.92

O/U chase

LAD
O6.5

$93.56

Parlay chase

DET
-190 TB -190

$1.51

Parlay Matrix

CHI WS +160/O8.5 -115	$4.50 - $17.37
CHI WS +160/U8.5 -105	$4.50 – $18.34
DET -1.5 +105	$10 - $10.50

arpeggiomeister · 04-24-14, 10:13 AM

Everything covers except the parlay chase. I am taking a trip to
New York so I am going to take a break. I am going to keep plugging
to try and get the parlay chase to cover but I do not plan on
starting the other chases up again until I get back on Monday.
Having them all resolve was perfect. Hopefully the parlay chase will
do the same tonight.

Parlay chase

LAD
-169 DET -220

$4.20

arpeggiomeister · 04-25-14, 06:44 AM

Parlay lost so I continue chasing. On my way out the door. There
are no run lines (spreads) available yet so it is good that I decided
to hold off on the Parlay Matrix plays until Monday. Hopefully this
covers so I do not have to update again until Monday. If not, I will
be back to update until it covers or I bust.

Today's play

MIL
-190 OAK -190

$8.06

arpeggiomeister · 04-28-14, 08:11 AM

Originally posted by arpeggiomeister

Parlay lost so I continue chasing. On my way out the door. There
are no run lines (spreads) available yet so it is good that I decided
to hold off on the Parlay Matrix plays until Monday. Hopefully this
covers so I do not have to update again until Monday. If not, I will
be back to update until it covers or I bust.

Today's play

MIL
-190 OAK -190

$8.06

This parlay covered so I did not have to spend my whole weekend in NY keeping up with this thankfully. The weekend is over so it is back to work.

I will have today's plays up shortly.

WarxMagic · 04-28-14, 08:25 AM

In the time you have wasted creating this thread you could have read a Statistics book cover-2-cover and have become a legitimate beast at handicapping baseball. You would have realized that your laziness actually wasted more time and energy than "taking the long road." Expect more from yourself.

#Hard Work Beats Soft Work
#Hope 2014
#Change

arpeggiomeister · 04-28-14, 08:40 AM

The Brewers have taken over the top spot in the ESPN power
rankings. The Astros are back on bottom.

Our line up is a little thin today. The Astros are not playing.
There will be no parlay matrix because I prefer games to be -200 or
better and the best I could find was -165 and -160. Both games are
too evenly matched in my opinion. I did do a parlay because I am
starting a new chase so the risk is small. I would not have done a
play on this either if I was deep into a chase.

O/U chase

MIL
O7

$9.53

Parlay chase

CIN
-140 TEX -140

1.05

arpeggiomeister · 04-28-14, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by WarxMagic

In the time you have wasted creating this thread you could have read a Statistics book cover-2-cover and have become a legitimate beast at handicapping baseball. You would have realized that your laziness actually wasted more time and energy than "taking the long road." Expect more from yourself.

#Hard Work Beats Soft Work
#Hope 2014
#Change

Aside from your response being completely rude, you have overlooked the work I have put into this. The work has been anything but lazy and statistics are not telling the whole story. I am focused on the balancing mechanism in these sports. My theory is that chase system are indeed profitable if you are willing to go deep enough. The outcomes of these games are not random as many suggest. Spreads and odds are a free market system complete with bubble phenomenon. Chase systems are perfectly suited to exploit this phenomenon, which flies in the face of conventional wisdom. Each sport has an average cycle between booms and busts. This is exploited by focusing on the teams at the top and bottom of the power rankings. By focusing on such teams you get the greatest psychological reaction from the public to wins or losses, thus the cycles are shortened. A middle of the road team will go unnoticed and thus can have cycles extended 10 or even 15 games but the top and bottom teams have very quick cycles. Your precious statistics will not tell you this because you are focused on the wrong things. You look at statistics on games in the past expecting that these trends will continue. Once the public has discovered these trends they put their money on it and the trend is thus nullified. I am focused on what is keeping the whole thing balanced. It is public perception that sets the odds. The oddsmakers are simply reading the public and use their biases to keep everything balanced. The obvious conclusion is that prior outcomes have a defined and profound effect on the odds of future games. Sounds like the Gambler's Fallacy doesn't it? Chase systems are built on this fallacy... ...only in this case it is sound logic. I took the long road. I have proven something that everyone believes to be false. The reasons chase system fail in sports are 1) the system is not deep enough to cover the average cycles. 3 or 4 tiers will not cut it. 2) The chasers are jumping around from team to team depending on statistical trends instead of public psychology to pick winners. This randomizes the outcomes, thus removing the edge. At that point a chase system is just as worthless as using it on a roulette wheel or craps game. By following a particular team such as the top ranked team in the power rankings you will see that these cycles are very real and hardly random. This theory has worked for 10 years straight in the NFL. It worked 9 out of the past 10 in the NBA. That is more then enough to be profitable. I am now trying to adjust it to make it work in the MLB and so far it has worked very well. I have 2 years of research put into this. You have 2 seconds of thought invested in your response. You may want to re-evaluate who is the lazy one jackmeat!!!

arpeggiomeister · 04-29-14, 09:42 AM

The over covers and parlay loses. Houston is on the bottom so we
start the next underdog chase with them today. The teams do not fit
the parlay matrix formula as well today but if I use the spread on
CIN vs Cubs I can make it work. Instead of parlaying the underdog
with the over and under we will parlay the spread of the favorite
with the over and under and then straight bet the underdog.

Today's plays:

Underdog chase

HOU
+135

$7.41

O/U chase

MIL
O7

$12.50

Parlay chase

NYY
-185 BOS -170

$3.50

Parlay Matrix

CIN -1.5 +160/O7.5 -110	$4.50 - $17.84
CIN -1.5 +160/U7.5 -110	$4.50 - $17.84
CUBS +125	$9.00 - $11.25

arpeggiomeister · 04-30-14, 09:57 AM

Each chase lost yesterday except the over which was postponed.

Today's games

Underdog chase

HOU
+133

$20.61

O/U chase

MIL
O7

$11
(-110)

Parlay chase

CIN
-185 DET -175

$7.45

Parlay Matrix chase

CIN -1.5 +105/O7.5 -120	$70.00 - $193.08
CIN -1.5 +105/U7.5 EV	$65.00 - $201.50
CUBS +165	$99.70 - $164.50

arpeggiomeister · 05-01-14, 09:23 AM

Had a typo in the parlay chase. I was on the Reds. I made the correction. That parlay lost. Hou loses, MIL over covers, and the Parlay Matrix covers.

arpeggiomeister · 05-01-14, 09:29 AM

There are no games today. HOU and MIL are not playing and there are no games with odds that fit my criteria for either the parlay chase or a parlay matrix. I will check in again tomorrow.

arpeggiomeister · 05-02-14, 09:58 AM

HOU is now on tier 3 for the underdog chase. MIL starts a new
chase for the overs. The parlay chase is on its 4^th tier.
The parlay matrix starts a new chase today. The spreads are not
available yet so I will have to stop in later for the parlay matrix
play.

The thing I really like about the parlay chase and the underdog
chase is the plus odds are affording some serious depth to the chase
systems. I am on the 4^th tier in my parlay chase and I am
still only betting $15. That is for $2 units on a bankroll that
started as $220.

Today's plays:

Underdog Chase

HOU
+170

$34.13

O/U Chase

MIL
O7.5

$11.00

Parlay Chase

STL
-180 SEA -200

$15.00

arpeggiomeister · 05-02-14, 10:29 AM

Okay spreads are up. I found this one a little tougher to balance
out than normal. Normally I can get these to make a $2 profit by
risking $19 but I could not get that balance on this play. I will
have to see if this trend continues. If it does than it will nullify
this strategy. The problem is the juice is a $20 differential
between the over and under where normally it is a $10 differential.
It is not that high on all of the games available, but most that I am
looking at. I will need to investigate further to see if it is just
BETdsi or across the board.

HOU +170/O7.5 -120	$4.25 - $16.79
HOU +170/U7.5 EV	$3.75 - $16.50
SEA -1.5 -115	$11 - $9.56

arpeggiomeister · 05-03-14, 09:26 AM

The gaps in the games (the juice) is crazy. I am becoming
suspicious that BETdsi is shading the lines on me. I will conduct a
few tests to confirm or deny my suspicions. I am looking at the
Tampa Bay Rays +175 and the New York Yankees -205. The gaps on many
of the over/unders are 20 instead of 10. I have a friend who also
uses BETdsi but has been inactive lately. I am going to have him log
in and check the lines to see if they match what I am getting. If
they do not then we have some BETUS type of shit going on. If not
but the lines look off compared to other books it is still
unacceptable. For now, they are the book I have so they are what I am
going to use.

The underdog chase and parlay matrix covered. The parlay chase
and over under lost.

The parlay matrix is a little different today. I would have taken
the Yankees game but the juice is so far off that I am not sure I
could get the thing to balance. Also, if the Rays decide to wake up
then that game could easily end in a 1 run win for the Yankees. I am
looking for an unfair advantage, not simply throwing darts at the
wall. I took the Nationals even money which I expect has some value
against the Phillies. I then parlayed the over and under with the
spread on the Phillies. I do not like this as much as the normal way
I set these up because if the Phillies win by one run I lose. I
prefer that scenario to be with the favored team. Both teams are
-110 so according to the books there is no favorite, but I favor the
Nationals in this game strictly based on their respective positions
in the power rankings. I t has become progressively harder to set
these up. If it continues I may have to let go of this strategy. It
has been performing well so far, but the risk of ruin is extremely
high. The chase system can only go two tiers deep. Given the amount
of losses I have observed so far with this strategy losing two of
these in a row seems inevitable. For now I will continue but if it
becomes too much of a pain then I will drop this strategy.

Today's plays:

Underdog Chase

HOU
+117

$8.55

O/U Chase

MIL
O7

$31.00

Parlay Chase

STL
-180 SEA -137

$21.90

Parlay Matrix

PHI -1.5 +180/O7.5 -105	$3.85 - $17.20
PHI -1.5 +180/U7.5 -115	$4.15 - $17.57
WAS EV	$10.00

arpeggiomeister · 05-03-14, 09:44 AM

I chose to fade the Astros and Cubs again in the parlay chase even though they were not necessarily the biggest underdogs on the boards today. When crap teams score a win they typically return to the norm... ...aka lose. In the NFL this strategy has served me very well. I wait for a terrible team to beat the spread and then fade them. I typically use teasers to do this, but baseball is an entirely different animal. I will need to score a win pretty soon. That chase is starting to get deep at tier 5. This particular experiment is not a paper trade, I have a tiny bankroll I have been using to test this with which is currently down to $214. I am not sure how many more tiers this bankroll can sustain but if I had to guess I would say 2, maybe 3.

arpeggiomeister · 05-04-14, 07:32 AM

Everything covers except the parlay chase. That is getting scary
now. I have two tiers left to cover. I will plug away and see what
happens.

The over/under chase is actually implementing the Pendulum Cycle
Theory today. The Rockies and Mets had a huge scoring game
yesterday: 11/10. This has pushed the over to 10.5. I am going
contrarian, expecting that the under is undervalued now. Up to this
point I have just been riding underdogs and favorites hoping to catch
a win within their cycle before I bust. This situation is an actual
prediction which brings me closer to what I had been doing in the NFL
with teasers. In the NFL when a team completely blows out a spread
more often then not they come crashing back down to earth within a
game or two. I will look deeper into this strategy and see how well
it works.

The spreads are not up yet and I must leave in about an hour. If
the spreads are not up by then I will have to skip the parlay matrix
for today.

Underdog Chase

HOU
-115

$11.50

O/U chase

COL
U10.5

$11.00

Parlay Chase

NYY
-155 CLE -155

$35.50

arpeggiomeister · 05-04-14, 07:51 AM

Spreads just went up. Here is today's parlay matrix

05/04/14	ATL +165/O7 -115	$4.50 - $17.79
	ATL +165/U7 -105	$4.50 - $18.78
	SFO +117	$10 - $11.70

arpeggiomeister · 05-05-14, 09:42 AM

Underdog chase and parlay chase lose. The over under chase worked
brilliantly and is the first method I have used in the MLB that is
making predictions with the numbers instead of blindly hoping a cycle
plays out.

The parlay chase is a disaster and I believe the main cause of
this is by choosing the teams with the most expensive odds you get
different teams almost every day. This randomizes any edge the
Pendulum Cycle Theory might have given me and thus nullifies any
chase method. In order for the theory to work you must follow a
specific team all the way through the cycle, or make a prediction about
when you think that cycle is going to turn. For the parlay chase to
work I believe I must find a way to do the latter. For now I am
dumping the parlay chase. Unfortunately this was a real money
experiment albeit a tiny bankroll. I have one more shot to turn it
around. * I took MIL -155 for $155. * If I lose I blow up the
bankroll. I may start it up again if I see a way to parlay two teams
together that are caught in similar cycles. For example, I would
expect the Yankees to rebound. It may not be in one game, but it is
worth chasing them even in a straight bet. I will keep my eye on
these things and see if I can make something work. However, as long
as you are picking two teams solely based on the numbers then the
results are random and chase systems will inevitably fail in that
situation.

The over under chase is a step in the right direction. The Texas
Rangers had a high scoring game last night so I am going to try the
same thing with them that I did on the COL Rockies. We are going
with the under.

Today's plays:

Underdog Chase

HOU
+225

$14.00

O/U chase

TEX
U10.5

$10.00

Parlay Chase *last ditch effort to rescue bankroll, then dumping
this strategy

MIL
-155

$155.00

Parlay Matrix

HOU +225/O7.5 -110	$3.50 - $18.22
HOU +225/U7.5 -110	$3.50 - $18.22
DET -1.5 -115	$11 - $9.56

arpeggiomeister · 05-06-14, 10:13 AM

Underdog Chase loses, everything else covers. My “Hail Mary”
bet on MIL covers so my tiny bankroll is still alive.

Underdog Chase

HOU
+160

$34.69

O/U Chase

SFO
U7.5

$12.50

Parlay Matrix

MIL -1.5/O7.5 -115	$4.50 -$16.11
MIL -1.5/U7.5 -105	$4.50 - $17.02
ARI +133	$9 -$11.97

arpeggiomeister · 05-06-14, 10:25 AM

I just tried to set up the Parlay Matrix with my bankroll and it would not let me parlay the spread and total together. I can parlay the odds and total together but not the spread and total. That is not only weird but nullifies my results up to this point for I have done a few bets like that. That blows!!! I will have to go over my records and find how many of these I have done. I guess I will be riding the over under bets.

arpeggiomeister · 05-06-14, 10:37 AM

Here is the replacement Parlay Matrix. I did a crappy job
balancing these but they will make a profit no matter which outcome
so that is good enough for now.

SEA +153/O7 -120	$4.50 -$16.37
SEA +153/U7 -EV	$4.50 - $18.27
OAK -1.5 +125	$9 -$11.25

arpeggiomeister · 05-06-14, 10:43 AM

Here are the dates where I parlayed the spread with the over/under
4/15, 4/29, 4/30, 5/3. I apparently can not do this so these results
are nullified.

arpeggiomeister · 05-06-14, 11:50 PM

I just noticed I did not change out ARI for OAK in the Parlay Matrix. I just made the correction. The game is in the 8th. Hopefully SEA can hang on to their 1 run lead.

arpeggiomeister · 05-07-14, 09:39 AM

HOU loses, the under and parlay matrix cover. It is way too early
to declare victory but the over under strategy has been working very
well since I added in the contrarian approach. I am going to try
that again on Detroit today. The parlay matrix will also be on
Detroit and Houston so all three bets are on this same game today.

Underdog Chase

HOU
+190

$52.73

O/U Chase

DET
U9

$12.00

Parlay Matrix

HOU +190/O9 EV	$3.75 - $18
HOU +190/U9 -120	$4.25 - $18.35
DET -1.5 -115	$11.50 - $10.00

arpeggiomeister · 05-08-14, 10:19 AM

The under bet covers. The underdog and parlay matrix lose. The
underdog chase is starting to become deep. The parlay matrix chase
is very dangerous as it can only sustain 2 tiers. This is the 5^th
time I have had to use a second tier with this experiment and it has
only been going on for a month. I think it is a game of Russian
Roulette. I will continue to see if I can pull it off but the lack
of depth gives this strategy a high probability of failure. If I
manage to cover with this bet I will be getting very close to my
target of 40% ROI.

Today's bets

Underdog Chase

HOU
+170

$95.84

O/U Chase

COL
U9.5

$12.00

Parlay Matrix (2^nd Tier)

HOU +170/09 -110	$55 - $228.50
HOU +170/U9 -110	$55 - $228.50
DET -1.5 EV	$148 - $148

arpeggiomeister · 05-09-14, 09:34 AM

Everything covered yesterday. The Parlay Matrix strategy
apparently has 9 lives. I keep saying how dangerous the strategy is
and somehow it keeps pulling through. The bankroll for this
experiment is currently up to $283.92. The target is $308. Out of
21 bets placed 5 have failed for a ratio of approximately 1:4. At
that rate I would say the probability of having two losses in a row
are fairly high. If we won every bet from here on out it will take
12 more to hit our target.

Since Houston covered I checked in with the power rankings to see
if anything has changed. The Astros are still on the bottom and the
Brewers are still on top.

Since adding the contrarian approach to the over under bets I have
been on quite a streak. I have hit 5 in a row with under bets. It
will be interesting to see how long this streak lasts.

The spreads are not up yet. I will check back in with the parlay
matrix play

Today's plays:

Underdog Chase

HOU
+150

$6.67

O/U

TOR
U9

$9.52

arpeggiomeister · 05-09-14, 09:59 AM

Parlay Matrix Play

COL +160/O EV	$4.75 - $17.89
COL +160 U -120	$4.25 - $17.85
CIN -1.5 +115	$10 - $11.50

yodlegern · 05-09-14, 11:32 AM

YTD?

arpeggiomeister · 05-10-14, 07:10 AM

I have prior engagements this morning but have most the info. Will be on the Under on SD, HOU +150, and the DET/ MIN for the Parlay Matrix. I was going to post the YTD at the end of the experiment. If I have time later today I will post what I have so far. Thanks for your interest.

arpeggiomeister · 05-10-14, 09:11 AM

The under covers for a 6^th time in a row. Hou and the
parlay matrix lose.

I weighted the Parlay Matrix heavily on Detroit. If MIN hits with
the over I will basically gain a penny ahead of where I was at before
the loss yesterday. If Detroit hits then I will be $4 away from my
target of $308.

Today's plays:

HOU
+150

$11.11

SD
U6.5

$12.00

MIN +215/O -105	$34 - $175.01
MIN +215/U -115	$36 - $176.01
DET -120	$120 - $100

arpeggiomeister · 05-10-14, 09:12 AM

I do not know how this will come out. When I copy and paste to this forum it messes with the format badly. I will try to post my results up to this point and see what happens.

arpeggiomeister · 05-10-14, 09:14 AM

MLB
Parlay Matrix Experiment

04/10/14	MIA +185/O +105	$4.00 - $19.36	L	L
	MIA +185/U -125	$4.00 - $16.52	L	L
	WAS EV	$9 - $9	W	W $221

04/11/14	HOU +190/O8 -105	$4.00 - $18.65	L	L
	HOU +190/U8 -115	$4.00 - $17.69	L	L
	TEX -1.5 -110	$11.00 - $10.00	L	L $202

04/12/14	CHI +205/O7 EV	$40 - $204	L	L
	CHI +205/U7 -120	$40 - $183.67	L	L
	STL -1.5 -110	$118.00 - $107.27	W	W $225.27

04/13/14	CHI +200/O7.5	$4 - $20.60	L	L
	CHI +200/U7.5	$4 - $17.60	L	L
	STL -1.5 -110	$11 - $10	W	W $227.27

04/14/14	NP

04/15/14	SDP -1.5/O7 -105	$4.00 - $17.48	L	L
	SDP -1.5/U7 -115	$4 - $16.57	L	L
	COL +116	$10 - $11.60	W	W $229.87

04/16/14	Cubs +175/O7.5 -110	$4 - $17	L	L
	Cubs +175/U7.5 -110	$4 - $17	L	L
	NYY -1.5 -105	$10.50 - $10	W	W $231.87

04/17/14	NP

04/18/14	HOU +180/O7 -110	$4 – 17.38	L	L
	HOU +180/U7 -110	$4 - $17.38	L	L
	OAK -1.5 -110	$11 - $10	W	W $233.87

04/19/14	HOU +180/O7.5 +105	$3.75 - $17.77	L
	HOU +180/U7.5 -125	$4.25 - $17.17	L
	OAK -1.5 -EV	$10.00 - $10.00	L	$215.87

04/20/14	HOU +205/O7.5 -115	$43 - $202.19	L
	HOU +205/U7.5 -105	$42 - $208.10	L
	OAK -1.5 -115	$130 - $113.04	W	$243.04

04/21/14	HOU +225/O6.5 -105	$3.75 - $20.04	L
	HOU +225/U6.5 -115	$3.75 - $19.04	L
	SEA -1.5 -115	$11.50 - $10.00	L	$247.83

04/22/14	CHI WS +210/08 -115	$3.75 - $17.98	L
	CHI WS +210/U8 -105	$3.75 - $18.95	L
	DET -1.5 -115	$11.50 - $10	W	$250.33

04/23/14	CHI WS +160/O8.5 -115	$4.50 - $17.37	W
	CHI WS +160/U8.5 -105	$4.50 – $18.34	L
	DET -1.5 +105	$10 - $10.50	L	$252.70

04/24/14	Break

04/29/14	CIN -1.5 +160/O7.5 -110	$4.50 - $17.84	L
	CIN -1.5 +160/U7.5 -110	$4.50 - $17.84	L
	CUBS +125	$9.00 - $11.25	L	$234.70

04/30/14	CIN -1.5 +105/O7.5 -120	$70.00 - $193.08	L
	CIN -1.5 +105/U7.5 EV	$65.00 - $201.50	L
	CUBS +165	$99.70 - $164.50	W	$264.70

05/01/14	NP

05/02/14	HOU +170/O7.5 -120	$4.25 - $16.79	W
	HOU +170/U7.5 EV	$3.75 - $16.50	L
	SEA -1.5 -115	$11 - $9.56	L	$266.74
05/03/14	PHI -1.5 +180/O7.5 -105	$3.85 - $17.20	W
	PHI -1.5 +180/U7.5 -115	$4.15 - $17.57	L
	WAS EV	$10.00	L	$269.79

05/04/14	ATL +165/O7 -115	$4.50 - $17.79	L
	ATL +165/U7 -105	$4.50 - $18.78	L
	SFO +117	$10 - $11.70	W	$272.49

05/05/14	HOU +225/O7.5 -110	$3.50 - $18.22	L
	HOU +225/U7.5 -110	$3.50 - $18.22	L
	DET -1.5 -115	$11 - $9.56	W	$275.05

05/06/14	SEA +153/O7 -120	$4.50 -$16.37	W
	SEA +153/U7 -EV	$4.50 - $18.27	L
	OAK+133	$9 -$11.97	L	$277.92

05/07/14	HOU +190/O9 EV	$3.75 - $18	L
	HOU +190/U9 -120	$4.25 - $18.35	L
	DET -1.5 -115	$11.50 - $10.00	L	$258.42

05/08/14	HOU +170/09 -110	$55 - $228.50	L
	HOU +170/U9 -110	$55 - $228.50	W
	DET -1.5 EV	$148 - $148	L	$283.92

05/09/14	COL +160/O EV	$4.75 - $17.89	L
	COL +160 U -120	$4.25 - $17.85	L
	CIN -1.5 +115	$10 - $11.50	L	$274.92

05/10/14	MIN +215/O -105	$34 - $175.01
	MIN +215/U -115	$36 - $176.01
	DET -120	$120 - $$100

arpeggiomeister · 05-10-14, 09:16 AM

MLB
Chase Experiment 2014

Lowest
Ranked Underdog Experiment #1 ranked O/U
Experiment

Date	Team	Bet	Win/Loss	Team O/U	Bet	Win/Loss
04/07/14	Hou +137	$7.35	L	STL O	$11.00	W
04/08/14	Hou +154	$17.76	L	DET O	$12.50	L
04/09/14	Hou +170	$32.42	L	DET O	$39.00	W
04/10/14	Hou +185	$52.72	W	No Play	NP	NP
04/11/14	Cubs +135	$7.40	W	DET O	$11.00	L
04/12/14	Cubs +205	$4.88	L	DET O 6.5	$29.52	W
04/13/14	Cubs +200	$12.44	L	DET O 6.5	$10.00	L
04/14/14	NP			NP
04/15/14	NP			DET 08	$36.00	Postponed
04/16/14	Cubs +175	$27.04	L	DET O8	$36.00	L
04/17/14	NP			DET O7.5	$72.38	W
04/18/14	Cubs -105	$88.58	L	LAD O7	$10.50	L
04/19/14	Cubs +130	$140.72	W	LAD O7.5	$29.05	W
04/20/14	ARI +132	$7.58	L	LAD O7.5	$10.50	L
04/21/14	ARI +108	$25.53	L	LAD O7	$33.55	P
04/22/14	ARI +101	$62.49	L	LAD O6.5	$48.60	L
04/23/14	ARI +118	$114.92	W	LAD O6.5	$93.56	W
04/24/14	Break			Break
04/28/14	NP			MIL O7	$9.53	W
04/29/14	HOU +135	$7.41	L	MIL O7	$12.50	Postponed
04/30/14	HOU +133	$20.61	L	MIL O7	$11 (-110)	W
05/01/14	NP			NP
05/02/14	HOU +170	$34.13	W	MIL O7.5	$11.00	L
05/03/14	HOU +117	$8.55	W	MIL O7	$31.00	W
05/04/14	HOU -115	$11.50	L	COL U10.5	$11.00	W
05/05/14	HOU +225	$14.00	L	TEX U10.5	$10.00	W
05/06/14	HOU +160	$34.69	L	SFO U7.5	$12.50	W
05/07/14	HOU +190	$52.73	L	DET U9	$12.00	W
05/08/14	HOU +170	$95.84	W	COL U9.5	$12.00	W
05/09/14	HOU +150	$6.67	L	TOR U9	$9.52	W
05/10/14	HOU +150	$11.11		SD U6.5	$12.00

arpeggiomeister · 05-10-14, 09:29 AM

The last one I have the underdog chase on the left, and the over under chase on the right. I did not specify what the bankroll is because I wanted to play out a large portion of the season and see how deep these chases need to go in order to survive. My target is 40% ROI for each of these. A rough guess would be a $3,000 bankroll. If I play 120 games with a grand martingale and get everything to resolve without busting $1,200 would be 40%. The underdog chase last resolved with 23 bets making a profit of $230. I lost yesterday so I must subtract $6.67 from that for a current total of $223.33. The O/U Chase stands at 25 bets for a profit of $250. Neither chase has even come close to tapping out $3,000 yet. The Parlay Matrix was started with $220. A 40% ROI would bring that bankroll to $308. I abandoned the Parlay Chase because that had threatened to bust several times. I did a Hail Mary bet which covered so my bankroll is still intact. That should bring you up to speed on everything so far.

arpeggiomeister · 05-10-14, 09:46 AM

It is important to note that the Parlay Chase and Parlay Matrix are acting as controls in this experiment. They do not fit the Pendulum Cycle Theory and thus are essentially trusting your fate to random chance. The Parlay Chase has already failed. The Parlay Matrix is hanging on but can only go two tiers deep. I am on the second tier for the 6th time today. I think this experiment may actually succeed because I am very close to my target 40% ROI, but even if it does succeed to be so close to failure 6 times in only a month demonstrates how risky that strategy is. The underdog strategy does not really fit the Pendulum Cycle Theory because the underdog must actually win the game in order to notch up wins in the chase system, as opposed to the NFL where if you bet the Jaguars against the Broncos (-26) you would have won even though they were beat badly. I did look at the past results and the underdogs in the MLB still manage to win about 50 games. As long as the losing streaks are not too long this should lend itself to a chase system nicely. A big losing streak of 15 or more games is a serious concern with this strategy. I am not sure how common that is, but the experiment has worked well so far. The only strategy that truly fits the Pendulum Cycle Theory is the Over Under Chase. I was just sticking with the top ranked team and expecting them to hit the overs in intervals that would bode well for a chase system. This was working well as the results show, but I then started looking for the games where the most runs were scored and then playing the under in the next game and the results have been spectacular so far. I have had a 6 game win streak with this strategy. This plays on the Pendulum Cycle Theory because people get scared to pull the trigger on the under bet when a team just scored 12 runs. I did this with the Rockies against the Rangers. It was really scary to place that bet but the Rockies didn't even score a run in that next game. I do not expect the results to remain this good, I do think this is an anomaly. However, it plays perfectly into my theory which gauges public betting psychology. The public generally will always react in the opposite manner that they should. They buy stocks when they should sell and sell when they should buy. I expect the same is true with sports and all my experiments to date point to this idea being true.