Reading lines, value, BTCL, and some other "tools" let´s talk about it, shall we?

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  • Artieaa
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 12-18-12
    • 953

    #71
    Originally posted by italianbandit
    Besides JMON's posts, this thread is filled with novices trying to be appear smart. Firstly, its very transparent, secondly why is this phenomena so rampant in gambling. I understand people learn by disputing, but this is embarrassing. Advise: post less, read more. If gambling is just fun for you, keep it at that, but don't try and sound like you know what you're doing. Watch your favorite sports, make small bets and be cheap, the only thing that exists is finding mistakes in prices. Just look at steam and line movements as white noise, you'll never figure it out. Spend move time watching real games instead of cracking out on your phone, you'll have better results.

    Beating sport lines is easy, folks spend way too much time making it appear so majestic and unattainable. Its like any other real endeavour though, you need to be smart and spend lots of time at it. You need about 10,000 hours logged in before you're a winner. You need to watch lots of games, understand statistics, learn computer languages, and have good discipline. You need to be able to scour the internet raping sites for information. To do this well you need 6-8 hours a day minimum per sport.

    So take it easy, have fun and stop taking yourself so seriously, this is an entertainment website. penetrating beautiful women is way more fun.
    Respect your post as diffcult as it is to do it, just some observations to your knowledge:

    -you said that the only thing that exists is to find mistakes in prices, my question is: isn´t it the reason we are talking about reading lines?
    - beating sports lines is easy, well if beating lines alone will make a profit that would be great, IMO you gotta capp games, know the sport, and pick a side, I think you missunderstood the whole idea here, we are not saying that reading the lines and beating the line is tha magic formula to be a winner, we are just trying to learn a lil more.
    - you are assuming we do not gather info for sites, nor we watch real games, one thing is what you think, fact is really different from what you think, not just because you said so has to be the true, am I wrong?
    - You are labeling ppl here as novice and ppl trying to be smart, well I have news for you, IMO posting does not make you more nor less intelligent than anyone, intelligence is graded by the way you choose to feel about any event that occurs, everythng else can be learned by reading, studying and practicing.

    Then again thanks for posting and share your opinion.
    Comment
    • Artieaa
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 12-18-12
      • 953

      #72
      Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE
      correct line moves: day 3

      NYY 1
      TB 1
      CLE 2
      WAS 1
      MIN 1
      CIN 1
      DET 2
      PIT 2
      KC 2
      TEX 1
      TOR 1
      BOS 1
      SEA 1
      SF 1
      CHW 1
      ATL 1
      Hey mate how are you considering the correct line moves, thanks in advance
      Comment
      • ItsMeMrMattE
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-30-10
        • 5294

        #73
        opener to closer based on 5d. for example team opens at -115 closes at -120, team wins. correct line movement.
        team opens at +120 closes at +110, team wins correct line movement.
        Comment
        • italianbandit
          SBR MVP
          • 05-17-11
          • 2622

          #74
          Artieaa- I wasn't referring to your original post, I thought you were bringing up some interesting talk points. I was critiquing many of the responses that followed. Moreover, it isn't being a novice that I am degrading, God you should have seen my ideas about gambling 25 years ago. It's that, unlike other fields, novices (in sports gambling) are clearly trying to sound intelligent and appear experienced when they are not. My post was just to encourage those folks to stop as they are not only embarrassing themselves but are not going to learn much in their current state. My advise to them was to post less on this site and read more. The first response to my post further proves my point.
          Comment
          • Vinnie Paz
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 03-27-12
            • 12177

            #75
            5dimes is an inefficient market
            Comment
            • ItsMeMrMattE
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 08-30-10
              • 5294

              #76
              Originally posted by Vinnie Paz
              5dimes is an inefficient market
              what do you mean by that?
              Comment
              • ItsMeMrMattE
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 08-30-10
                • 5294

                #77
                correct line moves: day 4

                NYY 1
                TB 1
                CLE 2
                WAS 1
                MIN 2
                CIN 2
                DET 2
                PIT 2
                KC 2
                TEX 2
                TOR 2
                BOS 1
                SEA 1
                SF 1
                CHW 2
                ATL 2
                MIL 1
                BAL 1
                STL 1
                NYM 1
                Comment
                • italianbandit
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-17-11
                  • 2622

                  #78
                  -you said that the only thing that exists is to find mistakes in prices, my question is: isn´t it the reason we are talking about reading lines?

                  Sure, I agree.




                  - beating sports lines is easy, well if beating lines alone will make a profit that would be great, IMO you gotta capp games, know the sport, and pick a side, I think you missunderstood the whole idea here, we are not saying that reading the lines and beating the line is tha magic formula to be a winner, we are just trying to learn a lil more.


                  I don't understand your response. Perhaps you thought I meant beating sports lines meant getting a better price than the closing line. Beating sports lines is the ability to create a line that is more accurate than one you are purchasing. Nothing else exists. Beating the closing line can be an accurate measure of success in the long run if the market is efficient. However, BTCL is majorly misunderstood on this site by even smart folks as people aren't confident and rooted in statistics. For instance if one month doesn't show profits, people think it's an unreliable measure. It is implicit that to achieve success one must "handicap", watch games, scrape data etc. as I mentioned in my post.


                  - you are assuming we do not gather info for sites, nor we watch real games, one thing is what you think, fact is really different from what you think, not just because you said so has to be the true, am I wrong?

                  ?

                  - You are labeling ppl here as novice and ppl trying to be smart, well I have news for you, IMO posting does not make you more nor less intelligent than anyone, intelligence is graded by the way you choose to feel about any event that occurs, everythng else can be learned by reading, studying and practicing.

                  I think you were just mad a me as you thought I was making fun of you. I wasn't - you seem interested in discussing concepts and I wish there was more of that here. Unfortunately you are incorrect about intelligence, it is mainly genetic, yes it can be cultivated but only to some extent. See Big Bear's posts. Nothing can be done there, his only hope is that he is a bot from SBR looking to create more traffic. Just kidding Bear -love ya.

                  Just to clarify one other thing- people seem to get offended when I say gambling is easy - it is- just very very time consuming. Something is not difficult because it requires time.
                  Curing cancer is difficult.
                  Comment
                  • Jefferey13
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 07-10-13
                    • 624

                    #79
                    Originally posted by italianbandit
                    . The first response to my post further proves my point.
                    That is directed at me. I have posted a fair amount on this site and I would like you to post one thing I said that is fundamentally wrong. I have corrected many many people on this site (not about right and wrong picks because there really is no thing) about statistics and betting and things that have clear right and wrong answers. If you can show me where I have been wrong once I will beg your forgiveness. But you won't find anything.

                    However you seem to find it easy to just come on here and give asinine and arbitrary suggestions like "read more" as if that somehow makes you smart. You also throw out 25 years of gambling as if that somehow makes you better than someone else. It doesn't. Remember intelligence does NOT = experience and vice versa. But I think you've proved that just fine.
                    Comment
                    • PAULYPOKER
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-06-08
                      • 36581

                      #80
                      Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                      Never play -ev in bases Except for Totals........


                      If you like the favorite, play the RL(only if the RL is +EV)

                      If you like the dog play the ML @ +ev......


                      Follow the above and you will always come out ahead....



                      1 simple rule:never play -EV
                      My system in ACTION>>>>>>>>>>

                      From 07/22/2013 to 07/28/2013

                      Beginning Of Week Balance: 0.00
                      Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
                      Win/Loss 13.44 40.06 104.72 -100.00 108.22 0.00 100.00 266.44
                      Cash In/Out 12.00 12.00 12.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 36.00 86.00
                      Balance 25.44 77.50 194.22 108.22 216.44 216.44 352.44 352.44
                      GameDate Sport Description Risk/Win Win/Loss
                      Amount
                      Result Date Placed
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8766126
                      12.00 07/22/2013 02:06 PM
                      Ticket #: 2141051
                      Jul 22 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [901] PITTSB +112
                      ( ACTION )
                      12.00 / 13.44 13.44 WIN
                      WIN
                      07/22/2013 02:06 PM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8770597
                      12.00 07/23/2013 04:37 PM
                      Ticket #: 2142152
                      Jul 23 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [951] PITTSB +107
                      ( ACTION )
                      37.44 / 40.06 40.06 WIN
                      WIN
                      07/23/2013 04:38 PM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8774978
                      12.00 07/24/2013 07:02 PM
                      Ticket #: 2143283
                      Jul 24 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [901] PITTSB +117
                      ( ACTION )
                      89.50 / 104.72 104.72 WIN
                      WIN
                      07/24/2013 07:03 PM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8778730
                      14.00 07/25/2013 05:17 PM
                      Ticket #: 2144194
                      Jul 25 07:15 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [959] PHILAD +165
                      ( K KENDRICK -R / L LYNN -R )
                      100.00 / 165.00 -100.00 LOSE
                      LOSE
                      07/25/2013 05:17 PM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8779408
                      0.00 07/25/2013 10:31 PM
                      Ticket #: 2144633
                      Jul 26 07:30 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [906] ATLANT EV
                      ( ACTION )
                      108.22 / 108.22 108.22 WIN
                      WIN
                      07/25/2013 10:31 PM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8790799
                      36.00 07/28/2013 07:37 PM
                      Ticket #: 2147868
                      Jul 28 08:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [906] ATLANT -104
                      ( ACTION )
                      104.00 / 100.00 100.00 WIN
                      WIN
                      07/28/2013 07:52 PM
                      From 07/29/2013 to 08/04/2013

                      Beginning Of Week Balance: 352.44
                      Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
                      Win/Loss 140.00 0.00 100.00 295.77 140.00 900.29 200.00 1776.06
                      Cash In/Out 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 12.00 84.00
                      Balance 504.44 516.44 628.44 936.21 1088.21 2000.50 2212.50 2212.50
                      GameDate Sport Description Risk/Win Win/Loss
                      Amount
                      Result Date Placed
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8793966
                      12.00 07/29/2013 06:07 PM
                      Ticket #: 2148377
                      Jul 29 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [952] PITTSB -1½+140
                      ( J WESTBROOK -R / F LIRIANO -L )
                      100.00 / 140.00 140.00 WIN
                      WIN
                      07/29/2013 06:07 PM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8794969
                      12.00 07/30/2013 05:38 AM
                      Ticket #: 2148770
                      Jul 30 04:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [934] TOTAL u7-110 (ST. LO vrs PITTSB)
                      ( L LYNN -R / A BURNETT -R )
                      110.00 / 100.00 100.00 WIN
                      WIN
                      07/30/2013 03:04 PM
                      Ticket #: 2149095
                      Jul 30 10:10 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [931] NY YAN +155
                      ( ACTION )
                      100.00 / 155.00 -100.00 LOSE
                      LOSE
                      07/30/2013 07:49 PM
                      Ticket #: 2149958
                      Jul 31 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [954] PITTSB -105
                      ( ACTION )
                      105.00 / 100.00 100.00 WIN
                      WIN
                      07/31/2013 06:57 PM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8800698
                      12.00 07/31/2013 06:58 PM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8801660
                      12.00 08/01/2013 12:35 AM
                      Ticket #: 2150798
                      Aug 01 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [921] ARIZON +215
                      ( ACTION )
                      100.00 / 215.00 -100.00 LOSE
                      LOSE
                      08/01/2013 06:52 PM
                      Ticket #: 2150796
                      Aug 01 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [904] PITTSB -1½+180
                      ( J KELLY -R / C MORTON -R )
                      100.00 / 180.00 -100.00 LOSE
                      LOSE
                      08/01/2013 06:52 PM
                      Ticket #: 2150797
                      Aug 01 07:10 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [907] COLORA +190
                      ( ACTION )
                      100.00 / 190.00 -100.00 LOSE
                      LOSE
                      08/01/2013 06:52 PM
                      Ticket #: 2150870
                      Aug 01 10:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [920] LA ANG -1½+175
                      ( J JOHNSON -R / G RICHARDS -R )
                      340.44 / 595.77 595.77 WIN
                      WIN
                      08/01/2013 09:13 PM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8808321
                      12.00 08/02/2013 07:54 PM
                      Ticket #: 2151611
                      Aug 02 10:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [970] LA ANG -1½+170
                      ( T REDMOND -R / T HANSON -R )
                      200.00 / 340.00 340.00 WIN
                      WIN
                      08/02/2013 09:14 PM
                      Ticket #: 2151612
                      Aug 02 10:10 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [979] NY YAN -1½+155
                      ( C SABATHIA -L / A CASHNER -R )
                      200.00 / 310.00 -200.00 LOSE
                      LOSE
                      08/02/2013 09:14 PM
                      Ticket #: 2151969
                      Aug 03 01:10 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [921] KANSAS -1½+115
                      ( B CHEN -L / J HEFNER -R )
                      200.00 / 230.00 -200.00 LOSE
                      LOSE
                      08/03/2013 12:04 PM
                      Ticket #: 2152315
                      Aug 03 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [906] PITTSB -1½EV
                      ( J DE LA ROSA -L / F LIRIANO -L )
                      400.00 / 400.00 400.00 WIN
                      WIN
                      08/03/2013 05:36 PM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8812507
                      12.00 08/03/2013 05:40 PM
                      Ticket #: 2152481
                      Aug 03 08:40 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [929] NY YAN -1½+140
                      ( I NOVA -R / T ROSS -R )
                      500.21 / 700.29 700.29 WIN
                      WIN
                      08/03/2013 07:50 PM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8815407
                      12.00 08/04/2013 12:45 PM
                      Ticket #: 2153372
                      Aug 04 08:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [954] TOTAL u7EV (ATLANT vrs PHILAD)
                      ( A WOOD -L / C LEE -L )
                      200.00 / 200.00 200.00 WIN
                      WIN
                      08/04/2013 07:22
                      From 08/05/2013 to 08/11/2013

                      Beginning Of Week Balance: 2212.50
                      Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
                      Win/Loss 0.00 319.28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 319.28
                      Cash In/Out 0.00 24.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.00
                      Balance 2212.50 2555.78 2567.78 2567.78 2567.78 2567.78 2567.78 2567.78
                      GameDate Sport Description Risk/Win Win/Loss
                      Amount
                      Result Date Placed
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8821855
                      24.00 08/06/2013 05:21 AM
                      Ticket #: 2154383
                      Aug 06 08:15 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [960] ST. LO +135
                      ( C KERSHAW -L / J KELLY -R )
                      236.50 / 319.28 319.28 WIN
                      WIN
                      08/06/2013 05:23 AM
                      RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                      Internal ID:8825913
                      12.00 08/07/2013 06:06 AM

                      __Turning $0 into $2567.78 in 15 days is flawless professionalism baby.......
                      ________________________________________ _____________________________________



                      Here is some more flawless proof of my system>>>>>


                      http://forum.cloud.static-files.com/vb4/images/mis...


                      Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
                      MLB
                      GameDate Sport Description Risk/Win Win/Loss
                      Amount
                      Result Date Placed
                      Ticket #: 2102184
                      Jun 10 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [910] BALTIM +105
                      ( ACTION )
                      All In!! 1.05x
                      units bet
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      06/10/2013 04:12 PM
                      Ticket #: 2103638
                      Jun 11 08:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [969] CLEVEL +159
                      ( ACTION )
                      Huge! 1.59x
                      units bet
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      06/11/2013 07:26 PM
                      Ticket #: 2104191
                      Jun 12 02:20 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [902] CHI. C -101
                      ( ACTION )
                      Medium 1.01x
                      units bet
                      LOSE
                      LOSE
                      06/12/2013 12:24 PM
                      Ticket #: 2104648
                      Jun 12 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [906] PITTSB -1½+115
                      ( B ZITO -L / F LIRIANO -L )
                      All In! 1.15x
                      units bet
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      06/12/2013 06:25 PM
                      Ticket #: 2105649
                      Jun 13 08:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [965] TORONT +190
                      ( ACTION )
                      Huge!! 1.90x
                      units bet
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      06/13/2013 05:38 PM
                      Ticket #: 2106587
                      Jun 14 07:30 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [909] SAN FR +116
                      ( ACTION )
                      All In! 1.16x
                      units bet
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      06/14/2013 05:18 PM





                      Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
                      Your Open Bets


                      GameDate Date Placed Sport Description Risk/Win
                      Ticket#:2108522
                      Jun 16 01:35 PM
                      Jun 16 12:02 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [910] PITTSB -1½+180
                      ( Z GREINKE -R / G COLE -R )
                      Huge!
                      Ticket#:2108523
                      Jun 16 01:05 PM
                      Jun 16 12:02 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [929] WASHIN -1½+135
                      ( S STRASBURG -R / C KLUBER -R )
                      Huge!




                      Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
                      Your Open Bets


                      GameDate Date Placed Sport Description Risk/Win
                      Ticket#:2108930
                      Jun 16 03:35 PM
                      Jun 16 01:55 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [927] NY YAN +127
                      ( ACTION )
                      All In!




                      Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
                      Your Open Bets


                      GameDate Date Placed Sport Description Risk/Win
                      Ticket#:2109268
                      Jun 16 08:05 PM
                      Jun 16 07:38 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [908] TOTAL u7½-110 (SAN FR vrs ATLANT)
                      ( T LINCECUM -R / J TEHERAN -R )
                      Medium




                      Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
                      Ticket #: 2093297
                      Jun 02 01:35 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [906] PITTSB +107
                      ( ACTION )
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      06/02/2013 01:01 PM
                      Ticket #: 2093456
                      Jun 02 02:15 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [909] SAN FR +144
                      ( ACTION )
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      06/02/2013 02:12 PM






                      Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
                      GameDate Sport Description Risk/Win Win/Loss
                      Amount
                      Result Date Placed
                      Ticket #: 2084611
                      May 26 02:10 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [955] PITTSB +118
                      ( ACTION )
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      05/26/2013 01:16 PM






                      GameDate Sport Description Risk/Win Win/Loss
                      Amount
                      Result Date Placed
                      Ticket #: 2086844
                      May 28 12:37 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [951] ATLANT +104
                      ( ACTION )
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      05/28/2013 12:00 PM
                      Ticket #: 2087463
                      May 28 07:08 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [955] PITTSB +140
                      ( ACTION )
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      05/28/2013 06:21 PM
                      Ticket #: 2088583
                      May 29 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [904] PITTSB +105
                      ( ACTION )
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      05/29/2013 06:08 PM
                      Ticket #: 2089377
                      May 30 02:20 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [954] CHI. C -102
                      ( ACTION )
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      05/30/2013 12:29 PM
                      Ticket #: 2089641
                      May 30 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [961] BOSTON -1½+125
                      ( F MORALES -L / J PETTIBONE -R )
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      05/30/2013 03:40 PM
                      Ticket #: 2090604
                      May 31 02:20 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [901] ARIZON -101
                      ( ACTION )
                      LOSE
                      LOSE
                      05/31/2013 02:17 PM
                      Ticket #: 2090783
                      May 31 07:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [919] BOSTON -104
                      ( ACTION )
                      LOSE
                      LOSE
                      05/31/2013 05:33 PM
                      Ticket #: 2091698
                      Jun 01 04:05 PM
                      MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [953] MILWAU -101
                      ( ACTION )
                      WIN
                      WIN
                      06/01/2013 11:57 AM



                      MLB record from May 26th 2013 to June 16th 2013

                      18 wins!!4 losses!!

                      82% win rate on HIGH risk plays!!



                      Originally posted by PAULYPOKER
                      Your Open Bets


                      GameDate Date Placed Sport Description Risk/Win
                      Ticket#:2113690
                      Jun 21 10:05 PM
                      Jun 21 06:51 AM MLB STRAIGHT BET
                      [979] PITTSB +140
                      ( ACTION )
                      Huge!
                      Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

                      BoomStick!!

                      19 wins!!4 losses!!

                      86% win rate on HIGH risk plays!!
                      Comment
                      • PAULYPOKER
                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                        • 12-06-08
                        • 36581

                        #81
                        Your Open Bets

                        GameDate Date Placed Sport Description Risk/Win
                        Ticket#:2155452
                        Aug 07 12:35 PM
                        Aug 07 06:03 AM MLB
                        STRAIGHT BET
                        [925] OAKLAN +105
                        ( ACTION )
                        200.00 / 210.00
                        Ticket#:2155648
                        Aug 07 12:35 PM
                        Aug 07 12:33 PM MLB
                        STRAIGHT BET
                        [925] TOTAL o7½-105 (OAKLAN vrs CINCIN)
                        ( B COLON -R / H BAILEY -R )
                        210.00 / 200.00
                        Comment
                        • italianbandit
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-17-11
                          • 2622

                          #82
                          Originally posted by Jefferey13
                          That is directed at me. I have posted a fair amount on this site and I would like you to post one thing I said that is fundamentally wrong. I have corrected many many people on this site (not about right and wrong picks because there really is no thing) about statistics and betting and things that have clear right and wrong answers. If you can show me where I have been wrong once I will beg your forgiveness. But you won't find anything.

                          However you seem to find it easy to just come on here and give asinine and arbitrary suggestions like "read more" as if that somehow makes you smart. You also throw out 25 years of gambling as if that somehow makes you better than someone else. It doesn't. Remember intelligence does NOT = experience and vice versa. But I think you've proved that just fine.
                          I'm sorry you interpreted my post as being asinine, arbitrary and unintelligent. I wish you the best.

                          Sorry guys you now have the Pauly Poker virus. Best to let this baby die.
                          Comment
                          • PAULYPOKER
                            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                            • 12-06-08
                            • 36581

                            #83
                            Your Open Bets

                            GameDate Date Placed Sport Description Risk/Win
                            Ticket#:2156059
                            Aug 07 07:10 PM
                            Aug 07 06:39 PM MLB
                            STRAIGHT BET
                            [907] COLORA +143
                            ( J CHACIN -R / M HARVEY -R )
                            300.00 / 429.00
                            Comment
                            • ItsMeMrMattE
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 08-30-10
                              • 5294

                              #84
                              lol the Pauly Poker virus.
                              Comment
                              • ItsMeMrMattE
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-30-10
                                • 5294

                                #85
                                correct line moves: day 5

                                NYY 1
                                TB 1
                                CLE 2
                                WAS 1
                                MIN 2
                                CIN 3
                                DET 2
                                PIT 2
                                KC 3
                                TEX 2
                                TOR 2
                                BOS 1
                                SEA 1
                                SF 1
                                CHW 2
                                ATL 2
                                MIL 2
                                BAL 2
                                STL 1
                                NYM 1
                                ARI 1
                                Comment
                                • PAULYPOKER
                                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                  • 12-06-08
                                  • 36581

                                  #86
                                  From 08/05/2013 to 08/11/2013

                                  Beginning Of Week Balance: 2212.50
                                  Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Total
                                  Win/Loss 0.00 319.28 916.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1235.28
                                  Cash In/Out 0.00 24.00 14.00 -12.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26.00
                                  Balance 2212.50 2555.78 3485.78 3473.78 3473.78 3473.78 3473.78 3473.78

                                  GameDate Sport Description Risk/Win Win/Loss
                                  Amount
                                  Result Date Placed
                                  RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                                  Internal ID:8821855
                                  24.00 08/06/2013 05:21 AM
                                  Ticket #: 2154383
                                  Aug 06 08:15 PM
                                  MLB STRAIGHT BET
                                  [960] ST. LO +135
                                  ( C KERSHAW -L / J KELLY -R )
                                  236.50 / 319.28 319.28 WIN
                                  WIN
                                  08/06/2013 05:23 AM
                                  Ticket #: 2155452
                                  Aug 07 12:35 PM
                                  MLB STRAIGHT BET
                                  [925] OAKLAN +105
                                  ( ACTION )
                                  200.00 / 210.00 -200.00 LOSE
                                  LOSE
                                  08/07/2013 06:03 AM
                                  RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                                  Internal ID:8825913
                                  12.00 08/07/2013 06:06 AM
                                  Ticket #: 2155648
                                  Aug 07 12:35 PM
                                  MLB STRAIGHT BET
                                  [925] TOTAL o7½-105 (OAKLAN vrs CINCIN)
                                  ( B COLON -R / H BAILEY -R )
                                  210.00 / 200.00 200.00 WIN
                                  WIN
                                  08/07/2013 12:33 PM
                                  RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                                  Internal ID:8827909
                                  2.00 08/07/2013 06:00 PM
                                  Ticket #: 2156059
                                  Aug 07 07:10 PM
                                  MLB STRAIGHT BET
                                  [907] COLORA +143
                                  ( J CHACIN -R / M HARVEY -R )
                                  300.00 / 429.00 -300.00 LOSE
                                  LOSE
                                  08/07/2013 06:39 PM
                                  Ticket #: 2156281
                                  Aug 07 09:40 PM
                                  MLB STRAIGHT BET
                                  [930] ARIZON +117
                                  ( ACTION )
                                  300.00 / 351.00 351.00 WIN
                                  WIN
                                  08/07/2013 09:36 PM
                                  Ticket #: 2156302
                                  Aug 07 10:15 PM
                                  MLB STRAIGHT BET
                                  [911] MILWAU +173
                                  ( M ESTRADA -R / M BUMGARNER -L )
                                  500.00 / 865.00 865.00 WIN
                                  WIN
                                  08/07/2013 09:58 PM
                                  DISB Transfer from Sports to Forum -12.00 08/08/2013 11:22 AM
                                  RCPT Transfer from Forum to Sports
                                  Internal ID:8830895
                                  24.00 08/08/2013 11:24 AM
                                  Comment
                                  • ItsMeMrMattE
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 08-30-10
                                    • 5294

                                    #87
                                    correct line moves: day 6

                                    NYY 1
                                    TB 1
                                    CLE 2
                                    WAS 1
                                    MIN 2
                                    CIN 3
                                    DET 3
                                    PIT 2
                                    KC 4
                                    TEX 2
                                    TOR 2
                                    BOS 1
                                    SEA 1
                                    SF 2
                                    CHW 2
                                    ATL 2
                                    MIL 2
                                    BAL 2
                                    STL 1
                                    NYM 2
                                    ARI 1
                                    Comment
                                    • Jefferey13
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 07-10-13
                                      • 624

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE
                                      correct line moves: day 6
                                      It seems to me you need to record a % of total right moves to wrong moves. If you figure out the % over a long period that will show you if there is some +EV from following movements. I don't see how following the teams individual trends will let you know when to bet. Do you? You could record each team % and maybe find a trend in which teams move the right way.
                                      Comment
                                      • ItsMeMrMattE
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 08-30-10
                                        • 5294

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by Jefferey13

                                        It seems to me you need to record a % of total right moves to wrong moves. If you figure out the % over a long period that will show you if there is some +EV from following movements. I don't see how following the teams individual trends will let you know when to bet. Do you? You could record each team % and maybe find a trend in which teams move the right way.
                                        ya i agree with you. this is very crude record keeping. not enough games left in the season to really break it down properly and make it worth while. i will try and track like mentioned above next season. really just doing this now for a reference for myself. ive been using line movement alot in my picks lately, and like to refer to this in order to help me remember which teams have been more reliable than others based on line movement alone. just because KC is at 4 in 6 days doesnt mean its more likely to continue that way it just means that in the past i could of put more weight in line moves for KC than lets say TB.
                                        Comment
                                        • italianbandit
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-17-11
                                          • 2622

                                          #90
                                          Ok, I reread the posts and realize my comments were mainly triggered by Hardcore but must have been just skimming and didn't specify enough. I apologize to everyone else. You're right Jeff, your posts were correct.
                                          Comment
                                          • ItsMeMrMattE
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 08-30-10
                                            • 5294

                                            #91
                                            correct line moves: day 7

                                            NYY 2
                                            TB 1
                                            CLE 2
                                            WAS 2
                                            MIN 2
                                            CIN 4
                                            DET 3
                                            PIT 2
                                            KC 5
                                            TEX 2
                                            TOR 2
                                            BOS 1
                                            SEA 1
                                            SF 2
                                            CHW 2
                                            ATL 2
                                            MIL 2
                                            BAL 3
                                            STL 1
                                            NYM 2
                                            ARI 2
                                            Comment
                                            • Artieaa
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 12-18-12
                                              • 953

                                              #92
                                              Originally posted by italianbandit
                                              Ok, I reread the posts and realize my comments were mainly triggered by Hardcore but must have been just skimming and didn't specify enough. I apologize to everyone else. You're right Jeff, your posts were correct.
                                              Not hard feelings mate, this is a public forum and as I stated before it is good to hear or read everyone´s opinion, I was not mad , perhaps just didn´t understand the whole idea to bring to the table those comments about novice and surely I agree 100% gambling is not easy takes time, passion, love for what you do , I clearly understand what you mean about efficiency market and BTCL, surely finding mistakes in lines after capping would be a good step forward.

                                              Thanks again and hope you´d like to contribute to these threads, as many ideas or perceptions we can get the better IMO. Will we be able to win 100% of the time ? surely not but we can try to achieve perfection and surely will lead us to excellence.

                                              Have a good one!!!
                                              Comment
                                              • Jefferey13
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 07-10-13
                                                • 624

                                                #93
                                                Originally posted by italianbandit
                                                Ok, I reread the posts and realize my comments were mainly triggered by Hardcore but must have been just skimming and didn't specify enough. I apologize to everyone else. You're right Jeff, your posts were correct.
                                                Thanks for the change of opinion. Rare to see.

                                                Oh and sorry for derailing the thread earlier, but some things are one persons opinion and other things are just facts and falsehoods.
                                                Comment
                                                • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 08-30-10
                                                  • 5294

                                                  #94
                                                  correct line moves: day 8

                                                  NYY 2
                                                  TB 1
                                                  CLE 2
                                                  WAS 2
                                                  MIN 2
                                                  CIN 4
                                                  DET 4
                                                  PIT 2
                                                  KC 5
                                                  TEX 3
                                                  TOR 2
                                                  BOS 2
                                                  SEA 1
                                                  SF 2
                                                  CHW 2
                                                  ATL 2
                                                  MIL 2
                                                  BAL 3
                                                  STL 1
                                                  NYM 2
                                                  ARI 2
                                                  COL 1
                                                  CHC 1
                                                  SD 1
                                                  LAA 1
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 08-30-10
                                                    • 5294

                                                    #95
                                                    was considering making a play on BOS yesterday based only on the fact that KC line moves indicated a loss for them. wish i would have now. look for suggested plays to be posted starting next week based only on line movements.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 08-30-10
                                                      • 5294

                                                      #96
                                                      correct line moves: day 9

                                                      NYY 2
                                                      TB 1
                                                      CLE 3
                                                      WAS 2
                                                      MIN 3
                                                      CIN 4
                                                      DET 4
                                                      PIT 2
                                                      KC 5
                                                      TEX 3
                                                      TOR 2
                                                      BOS 2
                                                      SEA 2
                                                      SF 2
                                                      CHW 2
                                                      ATL 2
                                                      MIL 2
                                                      BAL 3
                                                      STL 1
                                                      NYM 3
                                                      ARI 2
                                                      COL 2
                                                      CHC 1
                                                      SD 1
                                                      LAA 1
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 08-30-10
                                                        • 5294

                                                        #97
                                                        suggested plays based on movement only:

                                                        #1 KC RL (+100)
                                                        #2 CIN ML (-146)
                                                        #3 BAL ML (+100)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Jefferey13
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 07-10-13
                                                          • 624

                                                          #98
                                                          So did you look at today line movements also? Or did you just see the past movements and then pick todays teams regardless?
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 08-30-10
                                                            • 5294

                                                            #99
                                                            thats just taking into consideration toadys movement and how many times its moved correctly in the past.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Jefferey13
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 07-10-13
                                                              • 624

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE
                                                              thats just taking into consideration toadys movement and how many times its moved correctly in the past.
                                                              So the lines you took moved in the favor of the teams you picked?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 08-30-10
                                                                • 5294

                                                                #101
                                                                Originally posted by Jefferey13

                                                                So the lines you took moved in the favor of the teams you picked?
                                                                <br>
                                                                #1 KC RL (+100) -182 to -210
                                                                #2 CIN ML (-146) -140 to -147
                                                                #3 BAL ML (+100) +111 to +100

                                                                all lines moved towards indicating a win for that team picked.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 08-30-10
                                                                  • 5294

                                                                  #102
                                                                  correct line moves: day 10

                                                                  NYY 3
                                                                  TB 1
                                                                  CLE 3
                                                                  WAS 2
                                                                  MIN 3
                                                                  CIN 5
                                                                  DET 4
                                                                  PIT 2
                                                                  KC 6
                                                                  TEX 4
                                                                  TOR 2
                                                                  BOS 2
                                                                  SEA 2
                                                                  SF 2
                                                                  CHW 2
                                                                  ATL 2
                                                                  MIL 2
                                                                  BAL 3
                                                                  STL 1
                                                                  NYM 3
                                                                  ARI 2
                                                                  COL 2
                                                                  CHC 1
                                                                  SD 1
                                                                  LAA 1
                                                                  OAK 1

                                                                  #1 KC RL (+100)
                                                                  #2 CIN ML (-146)

                                                                  #3 BAL ML (+100)

                                                                  2-1, 100/346
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Jefferey13
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 07-10-13
                                                                    • 624

                                                                    #103
                                                                    You know the other down side is you are always getting the worst odds when you wait for the line to move in favor of a team.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 08-30-10
                                                                      • 5294

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by Jefferey13
                                                                      You know the other down side is you are always getting the worst odds when you wait for the line to move in favor of a team.
                                                                      ya. just tracking it tho.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Jefferey13
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 07-10-13
                                                                        • 624

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE
                                                                        ya. just tracking it tho.
                                                                        Ya I understand. It's good info to have. I'm just trying to think how the info you're gathering can best be applied.
                                                                        Comment
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