Reading lines, value, BTCL, and some other "tools" let´s talk about it, shall we?

[ItsMeMrMattE]

lol you tried to keep it civil. hard to do in the land of degens.

[Artieaa]

lol you tried to keep it civil. hard to do in the land of degens.

just a reminder why this thread was created for, I respect and aprecciate everyone´s opinion.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

any posters got a good example of weird line movement today? its an interesting thing to track imo.

[Artieaa]

The one I noticed cause for my model was a play was the Under on Tigers game, I use sbr live odds and track Pinny movements, according to the app with 45.8% UNder went from +102 to -115 on pinny since it opened yesterday. The other one I noticed was the Over on Baltimore game 10 cents swing with less than 48% of the bets. Surely with plenty of time we could find some more.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

The one I noticed cause for my model was a play was the Under on Tigers game, I use sbr live odds and track Pinny movements, according to the app with 45.8% UNder went from +102 to -115 on pinny since it opened yesterday. The other one I noticed was the Over on Baltimore game 10 cents swing with less than 48% of the bets. Surely with plenty of time we could find some more.

ya i do the same use sbr to track pinny. legit info or not, track it long enough and you'll find an edge imo.

[Artieaa]

specially if you are combining with your capping, but that is an example what I was talking about value and BTCL , open at +102 and closed -115, lost value but win the play, lol what a dilema IMO.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

lose value but win play just means books were weak in that spot. good thing to track imo. just like cappers books have teams they are better at than others.

[agendaman]

stop the over analysis youll be much better off p.s. guy i know had monster bet other nite bought kershaw at home +2.5 runs paid -720 juice final score yankees 3-0 i play nfl/cfb using 8.5 pt. teasers ties win very nice gl. all

[ItsMeMrMattE]

anyone feel like going in on a thread that tracks correct line movement only? my theory is that sharps know some teams alot better than the books do, you just gotta figure out which teams those are in order to use line movement properly. first example, TEX opens at +128 closes at +112. TEX wins 8-3.

[daddypoker23]

how about cubs opening +140 and closing +114? and yankees opening as a underdog to -125 fav.. both losing..

[daddypoker23]

You guys might find this site interesting.. Professional sports bettor who gives out his picks for free.

http://www.rickjshandicappingpicks.com/

[Artieaa]

In both cases we need to know the "cause" of the line movement, was it cause of public pounding the line or was it cause "sharp" money, IMO reading the lines correctly involves more than just the movement itself. @itsmeMrMatte would be interesting to try to keep an eye on this we could if you don´t mind keep the track here, or if you like you can start a thread and I´ll follow.

Best Regards

[daddypoker23]

when have the cubs been a public side??lol as for the Yanks could have been sharp and public side. Books made a killing in that game.

[Artieaa]

wasn´t refering to a specific team Cubs moved even with only 37% of the bets but that doesn´t necesarily means was sharp money coming in, as I stated at the begining of the thread Books have to find the way to bring same amount of money to both sides of the table, ppl chasing steam and tailing "sharp money" may get caught in this kind of movements....on the other hand public was pounding Yanks line more than 60% on it, at the end line can move because different reasons. At the end IMO that bring us to the hard fact that without a good reading of the game itself line movements can kill you.

ps. Thanks for sharing your point of view

[Artieaa]

A move to watch now

Dodgers/Cubs opened -110/+102 at pinny , now with 61.1%/38.9% line has moved to -102/-106

[MatI]

What source are you using for percentages?

[ItsMeMrMattE]

A move to watch now

Dodgers/Cubs opened -110/+102 at pinny , now with 61.1%/38.9% line has moved to -102/-106

and of course LAD wins.

[Artieaa]

yeap sharps are getting killed with LAD, though at the end at same game with totals pinny kept it at 7.5 all the time juiced even at -127 the over despite most of books went to set it at 8 early in the morning interesting? now weird is that 15 to 10 minutes before game time pinnt started to reduce juice on the over and after some moves set it both O and U at -105, books that had set it at 8 came back to 7.5 and of course game went under. all this with Under having a range of 45% to 47% of the bets at pinny. Interesting for me was to see that Pinny never felt exposed at 7.5 with juice on the over and many books setting at 8....
some other moves were made in other totals but for me it was the most notorius also cause Under was a play for my model. Will keep tracking

[Jefferey13]

I think the movement to make the over cheaper was because they saw the wind. It was intense. Right before game time I think a lot of people knew it wasn't going over.

[Artieaa]

yeap that was probably the cause, but again was a good tip to pull the trigger on the under.

@Matl I use sbrodds mate

[Artieaa]

Reviewing some lines I can see this: (all at Pinny)


Reds with 46.5% open at -139 and closed -165
Angels with 64.3% open at -172 and closed -162
Cubs with 40.3% open at +102 closed -111
Orioles 54.8% open -190 closed -170
Twins 46.1% open -139 closed -155
Rays 50.8% open -210 closed -245
and the one I mentioned already from totals on Dodgers game

Will keep tracking

[YouHave2outs]

yeap sharps are getting killed with LAD

i thought you reiterated multiple times that you are not sure whether it is sharp money or air moving the lines. sharps fade LA though?

[ItsMeMrMattE]

correct line moves:

NYY 1
TB 1
CLE 1
WAS 1
MIN 1
CIN 1
DET 1
PIT 1
KC 1

once a team hits 4-5 times on correct line movement, i would say its ok to start backing them on that alone. let me know if anyone disagrees with this or the results so far.

[Jefferey13]

correct line moves:

NYY 1
TB 1
CLE 1
WAS 1
MIN 1
CIN 1
DET 1
PIT 1
KC 1

once a team hits 4-5 times on correct line movement, i would say its ok to start backing them on that alone. let me know if anyone disagrees with this or the results so far.

I don't disagree because frankly I have no data to go one way or the other. It's an interesting idea. But why do you think that a team that has correct line movements 4-5 times a row is now more likely to win again?

[ItsMeMrMattE]

the theory i have behind it is that sharps know some teams alot better than the books do. say what you want about line movement but imo sharps move the line and public evens it out. so recognize where the big money is making correct moves and tail. just a theory tho, will try to track it from here till season end and see what the end result is. prep for next season pretty much at this point tho.

[Artieaa]

i thought you reiterated multiple times that you are not sure whether it is sharp money or air moving the lines. sharps fade LA though?

yeap It´s difficult to say what was really the reason of the movement I am just making an assumption here, shouldn´t do it I know, but hey lot of ppl like to fade streaks and trends so IMO they are trying to be sharps.

[Artieaa]

correct line moves:

NYY 1
TB 1
CLE 1
WAS 1
MIN 1
CIN 1
DET 1
PIT 1
KC 1

once a team hits 4-5 times on correct line movement, i would say its ok to start backing them on that alone. let me know if anyone disagrees with this or the results so far.

looks interesting and theory may be right, surely you can have a better understanding with more games to come, keep it up!!!

[ItsMeMrMattE]

looks interesting and theory may be right, surely you can have a better understanding with more games to come, keep it up!!!

yep. gotta dig alot of holes to find the best spot for that bone right.

[italianbandit]

Besides JMON's posts, this thread is filled with novices trying to be appear smart. Firstly, its very transparent, secondly why is this phenomena so rampant in gambling. I understand people learn by disputing, but this is embarrassing. Advise: post less, read more. If gambling is just fun for you, keep it at that, but don't try and sound like you know what you're doing. Watch your favorite sports, make small bets and be cheap, the only thing that exists is finding mistakes in prices. Just look at steam and line movements as white noise, you'll never figure it out. Spend move time watching real games instead of cracking out on your phone, you'll have better results.

Beating sport lines is easy, folks spend way too much time making it appear so majestic and unattainable. Its like any other real endeavour though, you need to be smart and spend lots of time at it. You need about 10,000 hours logged in before you're a winner. You need to watch lots of games, understand statistics, learn computer languages, and have good discipline. You need to be able to scour the internet raping sites for information. To do this well you need 6-8 hours a day minimum per sport.

So take it easy, have fun and stop taking yourself so seriously, this is an entertainment website. penetrating beautiful women is way more fun.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

correct line moves: day 2

NYY 1
TB 1
CLE 2
WAS 1
MIN 1
CIN 1
DET 1
PIT 2
KC 2
TEX 1
TOR 1
BOS 1
SEA 1

[Jefferey13]

Besides JMON's posts, this thread is filled with novices trying to be appear smart. Firstly, its very transparent, secondly why is this phenomena so rampant in gambling. I understand people learn by disputing, but this is embarrassing. Advise: post less, read more. If gambling is just fun for you, keep it at that, but don't try and sound like you know what you're doing. Watch your favorite sports, make small bets and be cheap, the only thing that exists is finding mistakes in prices. Just look at steam and line movements as white noise, you'll never figure it out. Spend move time watching real games instead of cracking out on your phone, you'll have better results.

Beating sport lines is easy, folks spend way too much time making it appear so majestic and unattainable. Its like any other real endeavour though, you need to be smart and spend lots of time at it. You need about 10,000 hours logged in before you're a winner. You need to watch lots of games, understand statistics, learn computer languages, and have good discipline. You need to be able to scour the internet raping sites for information. To do this well you need 6-8 hours a day minimum per sport.

So take it easy, have fun and stop taking yourself so seriously, this is an entertainment website. penetrating beautiful women is way more fun.

Dude your post is hilarious. I got a good laugh out of it.

You say- "Advise: post less, read more"
Then - "Spend move time watching real games"
So don't read?

You say- "Beating sport lines is easy"
then - "You need about 10,000 hours "
or -"To do this well you need 6-8 hours a day minimum per sport. "
WTF?


Please feel free to rip into people with actual advice. Post was about as useful as saying the key to making money is picking the team that wins.

If you have real data proving how easy it is, and how to do it. Then by all means please share and I'll shut up.

"this thread is filled with novices trying to be appear smart." Look in the mirror much?

[PAULYPOKER]

Never play -ev in bases Except for Totals........


If you like the favorite, play the RL(only if the RL is +EV)

If you like the dog play the ML @ +ev......


Follow the above and you will always come out ahead....



1 simple rule:never play -EV

[Darkside Magick]

All these terms are garbage....pick a side and bet

[PAULYPOKER]

I'm surprised No Coin wasn't in here layin down some of his genuine tracks

[ItsMeMrMattE]

correct line moves: day 3

NYY 1
TB 1
CLE 2
WAS 1
MIN 1
CIN 1
DET 2
PIT 2
KC 2
TEX 1
TOR 1
BOS 1
SEA 1
SF 1
CHW 1
ATL 1