Reading lines, value, BTCL, and some other "tools" let´s talk about it, shall we?

Artieaa · 08-06-13, 01:31 PM

Originally posted by italianbandit

Besides JMON's posts, this thread is filled with novices trying to be appear smart. Firstly, its very transparent, secondly why is this phenomena so rampant in gambling. I understand people learn by disputing, but this is embarrassing. Advise: post less, read more. If gambling is just fun for you, keep it at that, but don't try and sound like you know what you're doing. Watch your favorite sports, make small bets and be cheap, the only thing that exists is finding mistakes in prices. Just look at steam and line movements as white noise, you'll never figure it out. Spend move time watching real games instead of cracking out on your phone, you'll have better results.

Beating sport lines is easy, folks spend way too much time making it appear so majestic and unattainable. Its like any other real endeavour though, you need to be smart and spend lots of time at it. You need about 10,000 hours logged in before you're a winner. You need to watch lots of games, understand statistics, learn computer languages, and have good discipline. You need to be able to scour the internet raping sites for information. To do this well you need 6-8 hours a day minimum per sport.

So take it easy, have fun and stop taking yourself so seriously, this is an entertainment website. penetrating beautiful women is way more fun.

Respect your post as diffcult as it is to do it, just some observations to your knowledge:

-you said that the only thing that exists is to find mistakes in prices, my question is: isn´t it the reason we are talking about reading lines?
- beating sports lines is easy, well if beating lines alone will make a profit that would be great, IMO you gotta capp games, know the sport, and pick a side, I think you missunderstood the whole idea here, we are not saying that reading the lines and beating the line is tha magic formula to be a winner, we are just trying to learn a lil more.
- you are assuming we do not gather info for sites, nor we watch real games, one thing is what you think, fact is really different from what you think, not just because you said so has to be the true, am I wrong?
- You are labeling ppl here as novice and ppl trying to be smart, well I have news for you, IMO posting does not make you more nor less intelligent than anyone, intelligence is graded by the way you choose to feel about any event that occurs, everythng else can be learned by reading, studying and practicing.

Then again thanks for posting and share your opinion.

Artieaa · 08-06-13, 01:32 PM

Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE

correct line moves: day 3

NYY 1
TB 1
CLE 2
WAS 1
MIN 1
CIN 1
DET 2
PIT 2
KC 2
TEX 1
TOR 1
BOS 1
SEA 1
SF 1
CHW 1
ATL 1

Hey mate how are you considering the correct line moves, thanks in advance

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-06-13, 04:16 PM

opener to closer based on 5d. for example team opens at -115 closes at -120, team wins. correct line movement.
team opens at +120 closes at +110, team wins correct line movement.

italianbandit · 08-06-13, 05:43 PM

Artieaa- I wasn't referring to your original post, I thought you were bringing up some interesting talk points. I was critiquing many of the responses that followed. Moreover, it isn't being a novice that I am degrading, God you should have seen my ideas about gambling 25 years ago. It's that, unlike other fields, novices (in sports gambling) are clearly trying to sound intelligent and appear experienced when they are not. My post was just to encourage those folks to stop as they are not only embarrassing themselves but are not going to learn much in their current state. My advise to them was to post less on this site and read more. The first response to my post further proves my point.

Vinnie Paz · 08-06-13, 05:52 PM

5dimes is an inefficient market

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-06-13, 05:56 PM

Originally posted by Vinnie Paz

5dimes is an inefficient market

what do you mean by that?

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-07-13, 12:34 AM

correct line moves: day 4

NYY 1
TB 1
CLE 2
WAS 1
MIN 2
CIN 2
DET 2
PIT 2
KC 2
TEX 2
TOR 2
BOS 1
SEA 1
SF 1
CHW 2
ATL 2
MIL 1
BAL 1
STL 1
NYM 1

italianbandit · 08-07-13, 01:51 AM

-you said that the only thing that exists is to find mistakes in prices, my question is: isn´t it the reason we are talking about reading lines?

Sure, I agree.

- beating sports lines is easy, well if beating lines alone will make a profit that would be great, IMO you gotta capp games, know the sport, and pick a side, I think you missunderstood the whole idea here, we are not saying that reading the lines and beating the line is tha magic formula to be a winner, we are just trying to learn a lil more.

I don't understand your response. Perhaps you thought I meant beating sports lines meant getting a better price than the closing line. Beating sports lines is the ability to create a line that is more accurate than one you are purchasing. Nothing else exists. Beating the closing line can be an accurate measure of success in the long run if the market is efficient. However, BTCL is majorly misunderstood on this site by even smart folks as people aren't confident and rooted in statistics. For instance if one month doesn't show profits, people think it's an unreliable measure. It is implicit that to achieve success one must "handicap", watch games, scrape data etc. as I mentioned in my post.

- you are assuming we do not gather info for sites, nor we watch real games, one thing is what you think, fact is really different from what you think, not just because you said so has to be the true, am I wrong?

?

- You are labeling ppl here as novice and ppl trying to be smart, well I have news for you, IMO posting does not make you more nor less intelligent than anyone, intelligence is graded by the way you choose to feel about any event that occurs, everythng else can be learned by reading, studying and practicing.

I think you were just mad a me as you thought I was making fun of you. I wasn't - you seem interested in discussing concepts and I wish there was more of that here. Unfortunately you are incorrect about intelligence, it is mainly genetic, yes it can be cultivated but only to some extent. See Big Bear's posts. Nothing can be done there, his only hope is that he is a bot from SBR looking to create more traffic. Just kidding Bear -love ya.

Just to clarify one other thing- people seem to get offended when I say gambling is easy - it is- just very very time consuming. Something is not difficult because it requires time.
Curing cancer is difficult.

Jefferey13 · 08-07-13, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by italianbandit

. The first response to my post further proves my point.

That is directed at me. I have posted a fair amount on this site and I would like you to post one thing I said that is fundamentally wrong. I have corrected many many people on this site (not about right and wrong picks because there really is no thing) about statistics and betting and things that have clear right and wrong answers. If you can show me where I have been wrong once I will beg your forgiveness. But you won't find anything.

However you seem to find it easy to just come on here and give asinine and arbitrary suggestions like "read more" as if that somehow makes you smart. You also throw out 25 years of gambling as if that somehow makes you better than someone else. It doesn't. Remember intelligence does NOT = experience and vice versa. But I think you've proved that just fine.

PAULYPOKER · 08-07-13, 05:36 AM

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Never play -ev in bases Except for Totals........

If you like the favorite, play the RL(only if the RL is +EV)

If you like the dog play the ML @ +ev......

Follow the above and you will always come out ahead....

1 simple rule:never play -EV

My system in ACTION>>>>>>>>>>

From 07/22/2013 to 07/28/2013

Beginning Of Week Balance: 0.00
	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	Total
Win/Loss	13.44	40.06	104.72	-100.00	108.22	0.00	100.00	266.44
Cash In/Out	12.00	12.00	12.00	14.00	0.00	0.00	36.00	86.00
Balance	25.44	77.50	194.22	108.22	216.44	216.44	352.44	352.44

GameDate	Sport	Description	Risk/Win	Win/Loss Amount	Result	Date Placed
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8766126		12.00		07/22/2013 02:06 PM
Ticket #: 2141051 Jul 22 07:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [901] PITTSB +112 ( ACTION )	12.00 / 13.44	13.44	WIN WIN	07/22/2013 02:06 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8770597		12.00		07/23/2013 04:37 PM
Ticket #: 2142152 Jul 23 07:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [951] PITTSB +107 ( ACTION )	37.44 / 40.06	40.06	WIN WIN	07/23/2013 04:38 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8774978		12.00		07/24/2013 07:02 PM
Ticket #: 2143283 Jul 24 07:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [901] PITTSB +117 ( ACTION )	89.50 / 104.72	104.72	WIN WIN	07/24/2013 07:03 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8778730		14.00		07/25/2013 05:17 PM
Ticket #: 2144194 Jul 25 07:15 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [959] PHILAD +165 ( K KENDRICK -R / L LYNN -R )	100.00 / 165.00	-100.00	LOSE LOSE	07/25/2013 05:17 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8779408		0.00		07/25/2013 10:31 PM
Ticket #: 2144633 Jul 26 07:30 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [906] ATLANT EV ( ACTION )	108.22 / 108.22	108.22	WIN WIN	07/25/2013 10:31 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8790799		36.00		07/28/2013 07:37 PM
Ticket #: 2147868 Jul 28 08:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [906] ATLANT -104 ( ACTION )	104.00 / 100.00	100.00	WIN WIN	07/28/2013 07:52 PM

From 07/29/2013 to 08/04/2013

Beginning Of Week Balance: 352.44
	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	Total
Win/Loss	140.00	0.00	100.00	295.77	140.00	900.29	200.00	1776.06
Cash In/Out	12.00	12.00	12.00	12.00	12.00	12.00	12.00	84.00
Balance	504.44	516.44	628.44	936.21	1088.21	2000.50	2212.50	2212.50

GameDate	Sport	Description	Risk/Win	Win/Loss Amount	Result	Date Placed
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8793966		12.00		07/29/2013 06:07 PM
Ticket #: 2148377 Jul 29 07:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [952] PITTSB -1½+140 ( J WESTBROOK -R / F LIRIANO -L )	100.00 / 140.00	140.00	WIN WIN	07/29/2013 06:07 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8794969		12.00		07/30/2013 05:38 AM
Ticket #: 2148770 Jul 30 04:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [934] TOTAL u7-110 (ST. LO vrs PITTSB) ( L LYNN -R / A BURNETT -R )	110.00 / 100.00	100.00	WIN WIN	07/30/2013 03:04 PM
Ticket #: 2149095 Jul 30 10:10 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [931] NY YAN +155 ( ACTION )	100.00 / 155.00	-100.00	LOSE LOSE	07/30/2013 07:49 PM
Ticket #: 2149958 Jul 31 07:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [954] PITTSB -105 ( ACTION )	105.00 / 100.00	100.00	WIN WIN	07/31/2013 06:57 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8800698		12.00		07/31/2013 06:58 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8801660		12.00		08/01/2013 12:35 AM
Ticket #: 2150798 Aug 01 07:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [921] ARIZON +215 ( ACTION )	100.00 / 215.00	-100.00	LOSE LOSE	08/01/2013 06:52 PM
Ticket #: 2150796 Aug 01 07:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [904] PITTSB -1½+180 ( J KELLY -R / C MORTON -R )	100.00 / 180.00	-100.00	LOSE LOSE	08/01/2013 06:52 PM
Ticket #: 2150797 Aug 01 07:10 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [907] COLORA +190 ( ACTION )	100.00 / 190.00	-100.00	LOSE LOSE	08/01/2013 06:52 PM
Ticket #: 2150870 Aug 01 10:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [920] LA ANG -1½+175 ( J JOHNSON -R / G RICHARDS -R )	340.44 / 595.77	595.77	WIN WIN	08/01/2013 09:13 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8808321		12.00		08/02/2013 07:54 PM
Ticket #: 2151611 Aug 02 10:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [970] LA ANG -1½+170 ( T REDMOND -R / T HANSON -R )	200.00 / 340.00	340.00	WIN WIN	08/02/2013 09:14 PM
Ticket #: 2151612 Aug 02 10:10 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [979] NY YAN -1½+155 ( C SABATHIA -L / A CASHNER -R )	200.00 / 310.00	-200.00	LOSE LOSE	08/02/2013 09:14 PM
Ticket #: 2151969 Aug 03 01:10 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [921] KANSAS -1½+115 ( B CHEN -L / J HEFNER -R )	200.00 / 230.00	-200.00	LOSE LOSE	08/03/2013 12:04 PM
Ticket #: 2152315 Aug 03 07:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [906] PITTSB -1½EV ( J DE LA ROSA -L / F LIRIANO -L )	400.00 / 400.00	400.00	WIN WIN	08/03/2013 05:36 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8812507		12.00		08/03/2013 05:40 PM
Ticket #: 2152481 Aug 03 08:40 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [929] NY YAN -1½+140 ( I NOVA -R / T ROSS -R )	500.21 / 700.29	700.29	WIN WIN	08/03/2013 07:50 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8815407		12.00		08/04/2013 12:45 PM
Ticket #: 2153372 Aug 04 08:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [954] TOTAL u7EV (ATLANT vrs PHILAD) ( A WOOD -L / C LEE -L )	200.00 / 200.00	200.00	WIN WIN	08/04/2013 07:22

From 08/05/2013 to 08/11/2013

Beginning Of Week Balance: 2212.50
	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	Total
Win/Loss	0.00	319.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	319.28
Cash In/Out	0.00	24.00	12.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	36.00
Balance	2212.50	2555.78	2567.78	2567.78	2567.78	2567.78	2567.78	2567.78

GameDate	Sport	Description	Risk/Win	Win/Loss Amount	Result	Date Placed
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8821855		24.00		08/06/2013 05:21 AM
Ticket #: 2154383 Aug 06 08:15 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [960] ST. LO +135 ( C KERSHAW -L / J KELLY -R )	236.50 / 319.28	319.28	WIN WIN	08/06/2013 05:23 AM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8825913		12.00		08/07/2013 06:06 AM

__Turning $0 into $2567.78 in 15 days is flawless professionalism baby.......
________________________________________ _____________________________________

Here is some more flawless proof of my system>>>>>

http://forum.cloud.static-files.com/vb4/images/mis...

Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
MLB

GameDate	Sport	Description	Risk/Win	Win/Loss Amount	Result	Date Placed

Ticket #: 2102184 Jun 10 07:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [910] BALTIM +105 ( ACTION )	All In!!	1.05x units bet	WIN WIN	06/10/2013 04:12 PM

Ticket #: 2103638 Jun 11 08:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [969] CLEVEL +159 ( ACTION )	Huge!	1.59x units bet	WIN WIN	06/11/2013 07:26 PM

Ticket #: 2104191 Jun 12 02:20 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [902] CHI. C -101 ( ACTION )	Medium	1.01x units bet	LOSE LOSE	06/12/2013 12:24 PM
Ticket #: 2104648 Jun 12 07:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [906] PITTSB -1½+115 ( B ZITO -L / F LIRIANO -L )	All In!	1.15x units bet	WIN WIN	06/12/2013 06:25 PM

Ticket #: 2105649 Jun 13 08:05 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [965] TORONT +190 ( ACTION )	Huge!!	1.90x units bet	WIN WIN	06/13/2013 05:38 PM


Ticket #: 2106587 Jun 14 07:30 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [909] SAN FR +116 ( ACTION )	All In!	1.16x units bet	WIN WIN	06/14/2013 05:18 PM

Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
Your Open Bets

GameDate	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win


Ticket#:2108522 Jun 16 01:35 PM	Jun 16 12:02 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [910] PITTSB -1½+180 ( Z GREINKE -R / G COLE -R )	Huge!
Ticket#:2108523 Jun 16 01:05 PM	Jun 16 12:02 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [929] WASHIN -1½+135 ( S STRASBURG -R / C KLUBER -R )	Huge!

Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
Your Open Bets

GameDate	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win

Ticket#:2108930 Jun 16 03:35 PM	Jun 16 01:55 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [927] NY YAN +127 ( ACTION )	All In!

Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
Your Open Bets

GameDate	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win

Ticket#:2109268 Jun 16 08:05 PM	Jun 16 07:38 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [908] TOTAL u7½-110 (SAN FR vrs ATLANT) ( T LINCECUM -R / J TEHERAN -R )	Medium

Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER

Ticket #: 2093297
Jun 02 01:35 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
[906] PITTSB +107
( ACTION ) WIN
WIN 06/02/2013 01:01 PM

Ticket #: 2093456
Jun 02 02:15 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
[909] SAN FR +144
( ACTION ) WIN
WIN 06/02/2013 02:12 PM

Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER

GameDate Sport Description Risk/Win Win/Loss
Amount Result Date Placed

Ticket #: 2084611
May 26 02:10 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
[955] PITTSB +118
( ACTION ) WIN
WIN 05/26/2013 01:16 PM

GameDate Sport Description Risk/Win Win/Loss
Amount Result Date Placed

Ticket #: 2086844
May 28 12:37 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
[951] ATLANT +104
( ACTION ) WIN
WIN 05/28/2013 12:00 PM

Ticket #: 2087463
May 28 07:08 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
[955] PITTSB +140
( ACTION ) WIN
WIN 05/28/2013 06:21 PM

Ticket #: 2088583
May 29 07:05 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
[904] PITTSB +105
( ACTION ) WIN
WIN 05/29/2013 06:08 PM

Ticket #: 2089377
May 30 02:20 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
[954] CHI. C -102
( ACTION ) WIN
WIN 05/30/2013 12:29 PM

Ticket #: 2089641
May 30 07:05 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
[961] BOSTON -1½+125
( F MORALES -L / J PETTIBONE -R ) WIN
WIN 05/30/2013 03:40 PM

Ticket #: 2090604
May 31 02:20 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
[901] ARIZON -101
( ACTION ) LOSE
LOSE 05/31/2013 02:17 PM

Ticket #: 2090783
May 31 07:05 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
[919] BOSTON -104
( ACTION ) LOSE
LOSE 05/31/2013 05:33 PM

Ticket #: 2091698
Jun 01 04:05 PM MLB STRAIGHT BET
[953] MILWAU -101
( ACTION ) WIN
WIN 06/01/2013 11:57 AM

MLB record from May 26th 2013 to June 16th 2013

18 wins!!4 losses!!

82% win rate on HIGH risk plays!!

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

Your Open Bets

GameDate	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win
Ticket#:2113690 Jun 21 10:05 PM	Jun 21 06:51 AM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [979] PITTSB +140 ( ACTION )	Huge!

Originally posted by PAULYPOKER

BoomStick!!

19 wins!!4 losses!!

86% win rate on HIGH risk plays!!

PAULYPOKER · 08-07-13, 11:39 AM

Your Open Bets

GameDate	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win
Ticket#:2155452 Aug 07 12:35 PM	Aug 07 06:03 AM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [925] OAKLAN +105 ( ACTION )	200.00 / 210.00
Ticket#:2155648 Aug 07 12:35 PM	Aug 07 12:33 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [925] TOTAL o7½-105 (OAKLAN vrs CINCIN) ( B COLON -R / H BAILEY -R )	210.00 / 200.00

italianbandit · 08-07-13, 01:25 PM

Originally posted by Jefferey13

That is directed at me. I have posted a fair amount on this site and I would like you to post one thing I said that is fundamentally wrong. I have corrected many many people on this site (not about right and wrong picks because there really is no thing) about statistics and betting and things that have clear right and wrong answers. If you can show me where I have been wrong once I will beg your forgiveness. But you won't find anything.

However you seem to find it easy to just come on here and give asinine and arbitrary suggestions like "read more" as if that somehow makes you smart. You also throw out 25 years of gambling as if that somehow makes you better than someone else. It doesn't. Remember intelligence does NOT = experience and vice versa. But I think you've proved that just fine.

I'm sorry you interpreted my post as being asinine, arbitrary and unintelligent. I wish you the best.

Sorry guys you now have the Pauly Poker virus. Best to let this baby die.

PAULYPOKER · 08-07-13, 05:41 PM

Your Open Bets

GameDate	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win
Ticket#:2156059 Aug 07 07:10 PM	Aug 07 06:39 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [907] COLORA +143 ( J CHACIN -R / M HARVEY -R )	300.00 / 429.00

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-08-13, 12:05 AM

lol the Pauly Poker virus.

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-08-13, 12:13 AM

correct line moves: day 5

NYY 1
TB 1
CLE 2
WAS 1
MIN 2
CIN 3
DET 2
PIT 2
KC 3
TEX 2
TOR 2
BOS 1
SEA 1
SF 1
CHW 2
ATL 2
MIL 2
BAL 2
STL 1
NYM 1
ARI 1

PAULYPOKER · 08-08-13, 10:27 AM

From 08/05/2013 to 08/11/2013

Beginning Of Week Balance: 2212.50
	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun	Total
Win/Loss	0.00	319.28	916.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1235.28
Cash In/Out	0.00	24.00	14.00	-12.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	26.00
Balance	2212.50	2555.78	3485.78	3473.78	3473.78	3473.78	3473.78	3473.78

GameDate	Sport	Description	Risk/Win	Win/Loss Amount	Result	Date Placed
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8821855		24.00		08/06/2013 05:21 AM
Ticket #: 2154383 Aug 06 08:15 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [960] ST. LO +135 ( C KERSHAW -L / J KELLY -R )	236.50 / 319.28	319.28	WIN WIN	08/06/2013 05:23 AM
Ticket #: 2155452 Aug 07 12:35 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [925] OAKLAN +105 ( ACTION )	200.00 / 210.00	-200.00	LOSE LOSE	08/07/2013 06:03 AM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8825913		12.00		08/07/2013 06:06 AM
Ticket #: 2155648 Aug 07 12:35 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [925] TOTAL o7½-105 (OAKLAN vrs CINCIN) ( B COLON -R / H BAILEY -R )	210.00 / 200.00	200.00	WIN WIN	08/07/2013 12:33 PM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8827909		2.00		08/07/2013 06:00 PM
Ticket #: 2156059 Aug 07 07:10 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [907] COLORA +143 ( J CHACIN -R / M HARVEY -R )	300.00 / 429.00	-300.00	LOSE LOSE	08/07/2013 06:39 PM
Ticket #: 2156281 Aug 07 09:40 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [930] ARIZON +117 ( ACTION )	300.00 / 351.00	351.00	WIN WIN	08/07/2013 09:36 PM
Ticket #: 2156302 Aug 07 10:15 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [911] MILWAU +173 ( M ESTRADA -R / M BUMGARNER -L )	500.00 / 865.00	865.00	WIN WIN	08/07/2013 09:58 PM
	DISB	Transfer from Sports to Forum		-12.00		08/08/2013 11:22 AM
	RCPT	Transfer from Forum to Sports Internal ID:8830895		24.00		08/08/2013 11:24 AM

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-09-13, 12:03 AM

correct line moves: day 6

NYY 1
TB 1
CLE 2
WAS 1
MIN 2
CIN 3
DET 3
PIT 2
KC 4
TEX 2
TOR 2
BOS 1
SEA 1
SF 2
CHW 2
ATL 2
MIL 2
BAL 2
STL 1
NYM 2
ARI 1

Jefferey13 · 08-09-13, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE

correct line moves: day 6

It seems to me you need to record a % of total right moves to wrong moves. If you figure out the % over a long period that will show you if there is some +EV from following movements. I don't see how following the teams individual trends will let you know when to bet. Do you? You could record each team % and maybe find a trend in which teams move the right way.

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-09-13, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by Jefferey13

It seems to me you need to record a % of total right moves to wrong moves. If you figure out the % over a long period that will show you if there is some +EV from following movements. I don't see how following the teams individual trends will let you know when to bet. Do you? You could record each team % and maybe find a trend in which teams move the right way.

ya i agree with you. this is very crude record keeping. not enough games left in the season to really break it down properly and make it worth while. i will try and track like mentioned above next season. really just doing this now for a reference for myself. ive been using line movement alot in my picks lately, and like to refer to this in order to help me remember which teams have been more reliable than others based on line movement alone. just because KC is at 4 in 6 days doesnt mean its more likely to continue that way it just means that in the past i could of put more weight in line moves for KC than lets say TB.

italianbandit · 08-10-13, 12:30 AM

Ok, I reread the posts and realize my comments were mainly triggered by Hardcore but must have been just skimming and didn't specify enough. I apologize to everyone else. You're right Jeff, your posts were correct.

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-10-13, 01:46 AM

correct line moves: day 7

NYY 2
TB 1
CLE 2
WAS 2
MIN 2
CIN 4
DET 3
PIT 2
KC 5
TEX 2
TOR 2
BOS 1
SEA 1
SF 2
CHW 2
ATL 2
MIL 2
BAL 3
STL 1
NYM 2
ARI 2

Artieaa · 08-10-13, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by italianbandit

Ok, I reread the posts and realize my comments were mainly triggered by Hardcore but must have been just skimming and didn't specify enough. I apologize to everyone else. You're right Jeff, your posts were correct.

Not hard feelings mate, this is a public forum and as I stated before it is good to hear or read everyone´s opinion, I was not mad , perhaps just didn´t understand the whole idea to bring to the table those comments about novice and surely I agree 100% gambling is not easy takes time, passion, love for what you do , I clearly understand what you mean about efficiency market and BTCL, surely finding mistakes in lines after capping would be a good step forward.

Thanks again and hope you´d like to contribute to these threads, as many ideas or perceptions we can get the better IMO. Will we be able to win 100% of the time ? surely not but we can try to achieve perfection and surely will lead us to excellence.

Have a good one!!!

Jefferey13 · 08-10-13, 11:49 PM

Originally posted by italianbandit

Ok, I reread the posts and realize my comments were mainly triggered by Hardcore but must have been just skimming and didn't specify enough. I apologize to everyone else. You're right Jeff, your posts were correct.

Thanks for the change of opinion. Rare to see.

Oh and sorry for derailing the thread earlier, but some things are one persons opinion and other things are just facts and falsehoods.

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-11-13, 09:49 AM

correct line moves: day 8

NYY 2
TB 1
CLE 2
WAS 2
MIN 2
CIN 4
DET 4
PIT 2
KC 5
TEX 3
TOR 2
BOS 2
SEA 1
SF 2
CHW 2
ATL 2
MIL 2
BAL 3
STL 1
NYM 2
ARI 2
COL 1
CHC 1
SD 1
LAA 1

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-11-13, 09:52 AM

was considering making a play on BOS yesterday based only on the fact that KC line moves indicated a loss for them. wish i would have now. look for suggested plays to be posted starting next week based only on line movements.

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-11-13, 10:32 PM

correct line moves: day 9

NYY 2
TB 1
CLE 3
WAS 2
MIN 3
CIN 4
DET 4
PIT 2
KC 5
TEX 3
TOR 2
BOS 2
SEA 2
SF 2
CHW 2
ATL 2
MIL 2
BAL 3
STL 1
NYM 3
ARI 2
COL 2
CHC 1
SD 1
LAA 1

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-12-13, 06:27 PM

suggested plays based on movement only:

#1 KC RL (+100)
#2 CIN ML (-146)
#3 BAL ML (+100)

Jefferey13 · 08-12-13, 06:31 PM

So did you look at today line movements also? Or did you just see the past movements and then pick todays teams regardless?

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-12-13, 07:01 PM

thats just taking into consideration toadys movement and how many times its moved correctly in the past.

Jefferey13 · 08-12-13, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE

thats just taking into consideration toadys movement and how many times its moved correctly in the past.

So the lines you took moved in the favor of the teams you picked?

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-12-13, 09:08 PM

Originally posted by Jefferey13

So the lines you took moved in the favor of the teams you picked?

<br>
#1 KC RL (+100) -182 to -210
#2 CIN ML (-146) -140 to -147
#3 BAL ML (+100) +111 to +100

all lines moved towards indicating a win for that team picked.

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-13-13, 02:15 AM

correct line moves: day 10

NYY 3
TB 1
CLE 3
WAS 2
MIN 3
CIN 5
DET 4
PIT 2
KC 6
TEX 4
TOR 2
BOS 2
SEA 2
SF 2
CHW 2
ATL 2
MIL 2
BAL 3
STL 1
NYM 3
ARI 2
COL 2
CHC 1
SD 1
LAA 1
OAK 1

#1 KC RL (+100)
#2 CIN ML (-146)
#3 BAL ML (+100)

2-1, 100/346

Jefferey13 · 08-13-13, 02:21 AM

You know the other down side is you are always getting the worst odds when you wait for the line to move in favor of a team.

ItsMeMrMattE · 08-13-13, 02:38 AM

Originally posted by Jefferey13

You know the other down side is you are always getting the worst odds when you wait for the line to move in favor of a team.

ya. just tracking it tho.

Jefferey13 · 08-13-13, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE

ya. just tracking it tho.

Ya I understand. It's good info to have. I'm just trying to think how the info you're gathering can best be applied.