Reading lines, value, BTCL, and some other "tools" let´s talk about it, shall we?

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  • Artieaa
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 12-18-12
    • 953

    #1
    Reading lines, value, BTCL, and some other "tools" let´s talk about it, shall we?
    Fisrt of all this thread is created with the only purpose of reading everyone´s opinnion on the matter, it is not intended to encourage players to debate who is right and who is wrong, at the end I strongly believe everyone here has their own way of doing things and I am not pretending to change their way, in the process we all may learn something that may help us to improve our skills and achieve the common goal of making good money on betting.

    I want to start with some thoughts of my own:

    - Vegas and some bookies know more than everybody.
    - Even with a model, knowledge of the game, luck, etc. you can´t win them all.
    - Money management and discipline are the most important skills you have to develop

    Ok let´s hit it:

    Want to start with the concept that many people call "value"

    I have read many times players in many places calling a "good value", either is by a model, a system or pure knowledge of the game people believe the line offered by the books is out of reality it can be too cheap or too expensive. I have seen lines that according to my model and my way of capping appear to good to be true, some people may say "hey there is good value there" "should be more expensive", question here is why is it cheaper?, in one hand people may jump on the cheap line cause they see value, on the other hand people may hesitate because line seems to easy and as many people has stated "if looks too easy go the other way", I recall 1 clear and recent example: Dodgers at home vs Reds 1st game of past series, Greinke best winning percentage at home and best winning percentage among active starters since 2011 on the mound and Dodgers coming from consecutive sweeps, line was pretty cheap IMO and at the end Dodgers lost.

    This bring us to the next concept: "reading the lines":

    In the example I stated before there was RLM during the day, some may say "hey line was telling everything", yes agree but I would think that finding value you gotta move fast and lock it before price rises otherwise you will lost the value on the play. Reading lines is another "tool" many people use and many don´t give a peanut about it, have seen also people walking away or tailing what they think is sharp action on a side of the game, they can also being caught in a "trap", as an example yesterday on Bjays game line moved about 16 cents towards Bjays minutes before game time, some people hesitate and did not bet on Angels and some others bet on tailing what they thought was a sharp action on bjays. Bjays lost.

    I think we gotta understand that line movements does not necessarily implie sharp money, what I understand Vegas and bookies have to try to bring same amount of money to both sides of the table, they make this kind of moves very often specially when one side is clearly loaded with money, here is the matter how do we know when is sharp money? or how do we know the bookies are moving on air?.

    "Chasing the steam" is another tool many bettors use, problem with chasing steam is that you might get caught on those "moves on air" or "traps" that bookies set to atract those bettors money. So reading lines may and IMO is a very good tool to use but does anyone really knows the secret for every move? I guess IMO that no one knows.

    Last concept I want to bring to the table has all of the above implied:
    BTCL or beating the closing line
    Finding value in one play on opening lines may lead us to lock it early if line goes the way we expect we are BTCL, but what happen when goes the other way? was there really value there?, is it caused by public,sharp money, or bookies?, do I wait to see early movements?, Imo those are pretty intriguing questions that may be answered in such different ways as you can tell.

    Hope you didn´t get bored with the reading, would like to read oppinions from everyone, just want to finish with this:

    IMO even with all these tools nothing can assure you a win, at the end is still gambling.

    GLTA!!!!
  • PickoMoff
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-08-13
    • 638

    #2
    I have no opinion. I'm a rookie in the sports gambling world but a LONG time baseball fan/follower. It was an interesting read. Thanks!
    Comment
    • Big Bear
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 11-01-11
      • 43253

      #3
      good thread.

      and like you said everyone has their own perspective or strategy. I'm trying to be a better capper each and every day.
      Comment
      • HardCore
        SBR MVP
        • 06-05-12
        • 3615

        #4
        I dont really care about all this sharp/public action in baseball cause it doesnt really matter imo. nba/nfl it matters a lot and thats when i pay attention. But baseball is a flatout coin flip no mater which side your on which is why i play totals, there a little more consistent.
        Comment
        • Artieaa
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 12-18-12
          • 953

          #5
          Thanks BBear and Pick , yes the idea is to be better everyday, hope we can get good opinions here, I know there are a lot great cappers here in SBR that can give us all their perceptions.
          Comment
          • HardCore
            SBR MVP
            • 06-05-12
            • 3615

            #6
            baseballs the only sport where -200 favs lose at least 50% of the time. Thats like peyton/brady/rodgers/brees teams going 8-8 vs below .500 teams in a season. Or the heat/thunder losing to the bobcats 5 outta 10 times. Theres just nothing to hang your hat on in baseball outside of a sp who pitches 6innings. So i skip past sharp/public money cause the truth is nobody's sharp enough to get THIS sport right every night imo
            Comment
            • ItsMeMrMattE
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 08-30-10
              • 5294

              #7
              good stuff. "reading the lines" is the most interesting to me. has any book ever gone on record and stated that at times they do move on air to confuse or discourage money on a certain side? i was always under the impression that movement is a direct result of money coming in and nothing else.
              Comment
              • Artieaa
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 12-18-12
                • 953

                #8
                Originally posted by HardCore
                I dont really care about all this sharp/public action in baseball cause it doesnt really matter imo. nba/nfl it matters a lot and thats when i pay attention. But baseball is a flatout coin flip no mater which side your on which is why i play totals, there a little more consistent.
                I hear you, playing totals look like a different animal, though there are line movements as well, at the end as I stated before is still gambling.

                Thanks for your comments
                Comment
                • Artieaa
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 12-18-12
                  • 953

                  #9
                  Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE
                  good stuff. "reading the lines" is the most interesting to me. has any book ever gone on record and stated that at times they do move on air to confuse or discourage money on a certain side? i was always under the impression that movement is a direct result of money coming in and nothing else.
                  Thanks for comments , well that is the question do they always move cause of money? I have seen many times the concept of "moving on air" and IMo if somebody talks about it, it´s because exists.
                  Comment
                  • Dom177
                    SBR MVP
                    • 09-11-11
                    • 1080

                    #10
                    Best tool to cap baseball: eye test.
                    Comment
                    • Jefferey13
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 07-10-13
                      • 624

                      #11
                      Originally posted by HardCore
                      baseballs the only sport where -200 favs lose at least 50% of the time.
                      Seriously, did you read before you posted this? If this was true, you would take dogs at +180 and win more than 50% of the time and be rich beyond your wildest dreams.
                      Comment
                      • Artieaa
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 12-18-12
                        • 953

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Dom177
                        Best tool to cap baseball: eye test.
                        eye test? Never heard it before , would you mind explaining how it works? thanks in advance
                        Comment
                        • Jefferey13
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 07-10-13
                          • 624

                          #13
                          Originally posted by Artieaa
                          eye test? Never heard it before , would you mind explaining how it works? thanks in advance
                          Same thing as gut. If it looks good it is.
                          Comment
                          • Artieaa
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 12-18-12
                            • 953

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Jefferey13
                            Same thing as gut. If it looks good it is.
                            I thought so , though wanted to be sure, thanks.
                            Comment
                            • JMon
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 12-11-09
                              • 9800

                              #15
                              Originally posted by HardCore
                              baseballs the only sport where -200 favs lose at least 50% of the time.
                              Since 04, line<=-200 in MLB..However the notice the ROI! Best to just say away from them, IMO

                              1703-804 (1.63, 67.9%) avg line: -230.6 / 195.7 on / against: -$13,159 / -$14,434 ROI: -2.3% / -5.8%
                              804-769 (0.19, 51.1%) avg line: -108.2 / -103.3 on / against: -$2,149 / -$6,392 ROI: -1.2% / -3.8%
                              1185-1186-132 (0.49, 50.0%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$10,535 / -$12,385 ROI: -3.9% / -4.5%
                              Comment
                              • ItsMeMrMattE
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-30-10
                                • 5294

                                #16
                                where did you find that Jmon? i was trying to find the record of -200 lines this season.
                                Comment
                                • JMon
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 12-11-09
                                  • 9800

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE
                                  where did you find that Jmon? i was trying to find the record of -200 lines this season.
                                  Shoot me a pm..when you find a chance.
                                  Comment
                                  • HardCore
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 06-05-12
                                    • 3615

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by Jefferey13
                                    Seriously, did you read before you posted this? If this was true, you would take dogs at +180 and win more than 50% of the time and be rich beyond your wildest dreams.
                                    cmon man how many times have we seen -200+ teams lose this year. Look at bmore this week, Stl vs the mets 2x lol, verlander every other damn start, Mia vs the reds a couple times, laa to many times, Corbin vs the fish when he had a no hitter threw 8 innings and Stanton hits a hr n the 9th to win. Bro this shit happens a lot. I'm not saying play every dog at +180 but its not as sure of a thing in baseball that the big fav will like in other sports. NFL/NBA you know for a fact big favs will win 90% of the time vs inferior teams like the bobcats/magic it's just a matter if covering. Baseball who the penetrate knows because of pens and sp run support. Hell Harvey's lost 2x vs the fish at home at -200+ and was -180 couple days ago.
                                    Comment
                                    • Jefferey13
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 07-10-13
                                      • 624

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by HardCore
                                      cmon man how many times have we seen -200+ teams lose this year. Look at bmore this week, Stl vs the mets 2x lol, verlander every other damn start, Mia vs the reds a couple times, laa to many times, Corbin vs the fish when he had a no hitter threw 8 innings and Stanton hits a hr n the 9th to win. Bro this shit happens a lot. I'm not saying play every dog at +180 but its not as sure of a thing in baseball that the big fav will like in other sports. NFL/NBA you know for a fact big favs will win 90% of the time vs inferior teams like the bobcats/magic it's just a matter if covering. Baseball who the penetrate knows because of pens and sp run support. Hell Harvey's lost 2x vs the fish at home at -200+ and was -180 couple days ago.
                                      Of course it happens. I can site an example for anything you want. And sure maybe it happens more than NFL, but how is that relevant? You said they lose more than 50% of the time. That was a ridiculous comment. Jmon showed they lose 32% of the time. Thats a HUGE difference.
                                      Comment
                                      • HardCore
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 06-05-12
                                        • 3615

                                        #20
                                        I'm not gonna go back in fourth with this you pay that kinda juice on the nightly bases and see how much money you make in the long run. I can't be leave theirs ppl trying to justify paying that much juice is smart or makes since. I'm in the business of making money not losing it which is why at most I'm not laying more than -150. But I play totals so ill buy the .5 and pay -120--130 and that makes money not laying 2-1 every night it's just stupid in baseball PERIOD. I had my couple days of playing juicy favs the last week cause hell they were cashing but this week it's regressed back to the mean, so I'm back on my totals. You have fun laying -200 every night and ill lay my -120 and well see who makes more money in the long run.
                                        Comment
                                        • whtsox13
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-02-12
                                          • 1401

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by HardCore
                                          baseballs the only sport where -200 favs lose at least 50% of the time.
                                          You were done right there. Jmon's numbers if accurate show that wagering either side exclusively is a loser, you are debating with yourself. (thx Jmon for your input!)
                                          Comment
                                          • Jefferey13
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 07-10-13
                                            • 624

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by HardCore
                                            You have fun laying -200 every night and ill lay my -120 and well see who makes more money in the long run.
                                            I would bet you that we would come out right around the same. Somewhere between a 1-2% loss. I would propose that accounting for STD DEV the results are the same.
                                            Comment
                                            • Jefferey13
                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                              • 07-10-13
                                              • 624

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by whtsox13
                                              You were done right there. Jmon's numbers if accurate show that wagering either side exclusively is a loser, you are debating with yourself. (thx Jmon for your input!)
                                              That is correct. But please give me one single bet in any sport where if you bet it every single time you will up on the positive side. Just because jmon is right, it doesn't prove the bet is bad.
                                              Comment
                                              • whtsox13
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 05-02-12
                                                • 1401

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Jefferey13
                                                That is correct. But please give me one single bet in any sport where if you bet it every single time you will up on the positive side. Just because jmon is right, it doesn't prove the bet is bad.
                                                Wasn't saying there is one, just the opposite. The line is only one consideration in picking your winners.
                                                Comment
                                                • Jefferey13
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 07-10-13
                                                  • 624

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by whtsox13
                                                  Wasn't saying there is one, just the opposite. The line is only one consideration in picking your winners.
                                                  Oh okay, I misread your statement then. Sorry. I thought you were saying it doesn't matter because Jmon proved -200 has a -EV. We know if you play every line 100% of the it will have a -EV.

                                                  It seems ridiculous to me how many people on here claim to be good cappers but just don't know what they are talking about. I'm brand new and barely know what I'm saying yet I read so much garbage. It doesn't matter if the line is -2000 much less -200. The line in and of itself doesn't make a good or bad play. You can make just as much playing dogs and you can picking winners.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JMon
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 12-11-09
                                                    • 9800

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by HardCore
                                                    You have fun laying -200 every night and ill lay my -120 and well see who makes more money in the long run.
                                                    In MLB, if you actually laid -120, (exact- key word) every night (for fun of course ) it would actually be a nice fade since '04

                                                    961-888 (0.13, 52.0%) avg line: -120.0 / 109.9 on / against: -$10,460 / +$1,490 ROI: -4.7% / +0.8%
                                                    447-790 (-1.37, 36.1%) avg line: 156.9 / -172.4 on / against: -$9,360 / +$2,455 ROI: -7.5% / +1.1%
                                                    861-881-105 (0.41, 49.4%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$9,960 / -$6,960 ROI: -4.9% / -3.4%
                                                    Comment
                                                    • HardCore
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 06-05-12
                                                      • 3615

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by Jefferey13
                                                      Oh okay, I misread your statement then. Sorry. I thought you were saying it doesn't matter because Jmon proved -200 has a -EV. We know if you play every line 100% of the it will have a -EV.

                                                      It seems ridiculous to me how many people on here claim to be good cappers but just don't know what they are talking about. I'm brand new and barely know what I'm saying yet I read so much garbage. It doesn't matter if the line is -2000 much less -200. The line in and of itself doesn't make a good or bad play. You can make just as much playing dogs and you can picking winners.
                                                      1st of all I was being sarcastic with the 50% and secondly THE LINE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN PLACING A DAMN BET DUMMY!!!why do you think ppl go LINE SHOPPING and have accounts on multiple books. Do you even know the value in a 10c/20c book I mean WTF are you talking about lines tell everything in betting, especially in baseball. The rlm in MLB is BS but looking for good priced is what MLB is all about. This was the dumbest post I've ever read, I can tell your new to this. If joe Blanton is -200 vs the cardinals the value is on Stl+190 and the dummy play is joe Blanton that's good play/bad play 101. It's just an example of reading a line and seeing the value take some notes. FOR THE RECORD THAT'S JUST AN EXAMPLE...lines don't make good or bad plays penetrate outta hear
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Jefferey13
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 07-10-13
                                                        • 624

                                                        #28
                                                        So I would be about 2% better off playing all -200 then I would -120 haha.

                                                        Anyways, looks like the play is to take the dog RL when the fav is -120.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • HardCore
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 06-05-12
                                                          • 3615

                                                          #29
                                                          Originally posted by JMon
                                                          In MLB, if you actually laid -120, (exact- key word) every night (for fun course ) it would actually be a nice fade since '04

                                                          961-888 (0.13, 52.0%) avg line: -120.0 / 109.9 on / against: -$10,460 / +$1,490 ROI: -4.7% / +0.8%
                                                          447-790 (-1.37, 36.1%) avg line: 156.9 / -172.4 on / against: -$9,360 / +$2,455 ROI: -7.5% / +1.1%
                                                          861-881-105 (0.41, 49.4%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$9,960 / -$6,960 ROI: -4.9% / -3.4%
                                                          Those numbers don't mean shit because its based on if you blind bet that every night and that was all you bet. People do multiple plays at multiple units and do parlays. There's gonna be nights where you kill it and nights where u get killed. Don't come at be with that shit. Those numbers are useless
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JMon
                                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                                            • 12-11-09
                                                            • 9800

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by HardCore
                                                            Those numbers don't mean shit because its based on if you blind bet that every night and that was all you bet. People do multiple plays at multiple units and do parlays. There's gonna be nights where you kill it and nights where u get killed. Don't come at be with that shit. Those numbers are useless
                                                            slick I guess you missed the key words..for fun of course
                                                            Comment
                                                            • HardCore
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 06-05-12
                                                              • 3615

                                                              #31
                                                              Nice post edit and I wasn't even talking to you I was talking to the rookie who wants to use that shit to make a wrong point but f**k you lol
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Jefferey13
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 07-10-13
                                                                • 624

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by HardCore
                                                                1st of all I was being sarcastic with the 50% and secondly THE LINE IS THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IN PLACING A DAMN BET DUMMY!!!why do you think ppl go LINE SHOPPING and have accounts on multiple books. Do you even know the value in a 10c/20c book I mean WTF are you talking about lines tell everything in betting, especially in baseball. The rlm in MLB is BS but looking for good priced is what MLB is all about. This was the dumbest post I've ever read, I can tell your new to this. If joe Blanton is -200 vs the cardinals the value is on Stl+190 and the dummy play is joe Blanton that's good play/bad play 101. It's just an example of reading a line and seeing the value take some notes. FOR THE RECORD THAT'S JUST AN EXAMPLE...lines don't make good or bad plays penetrate outta hear
                                                                Did you just try to say my post was the dumbest post you've ever read? You were just proved statistically to be completely wrong with everything you've said and stated. Seriously, you have no idea what you're doing.

                                                                I will say it again, and no one can or will ever prove me wrong.

                                                                The line in and of itself doesn't make a good or bet.

                                                                You gave me a situation with teams and pitchers and to rationalize your argument. You just proved me right. Please show me a line with no teams, no pitchers, no lineups, and don't tell me the sport, and then prove it to be good or bad line. You can't. It's impossible.

                                                                You stated that playing -200 is a bad idea. It's not. In many situations when you look at the matchup, the stats, the ballpark, etc it will be a bad idea. But that is taking the info into consideration with the line.

                                                                Please, please, please don't try to correct me until you manage to find your own brain. Have you taken anything beyond high school math?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JMon
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 12-11-09
                                                                  • 9800

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by HardCore
                                                                  Nice post edit and I wasn't even talking to you I was talking to the rookie who wants to use that shit to make a wrong point but f**k you lol
                                                                  dude are you on crack you replied to my post with the -120 straight wager. edit was a grammar translation so you could understand.

                                                                  Rookie cause the guy joined in July of this year. He is talking circles around you...You already failed with post #6. Really can't believe you're here after that.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • HardCore
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-05-12
                                                                    • 3615

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Lol i give up arguing with You 2 my record speaks for itself how about y'all make a thread and post some plays since y'all are so damn sharp. I'm the idiot but I'm up over 30u since the all-star break and I'm winning as we speak 1st inning plays already cashed. Make a thread and post some damn plays before you take shots at me. I'm done with this thread. If y'all want some winners check out my get rich or die trying thread
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Artieaa
                                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                                      • 12-18-12
                                                                      • 953

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Gents if you allow me, this thread was not intended to see who is right and who is wrong, as I stated before everyone has their own way, let´s keep it like that , thread was not intended to change anyone´s way to play, the whole idea is to come with perceptions about the topics related with the thread.

                                                                      I would really appreciate to respect everyone´s oppinion and if possible explain why agree or disagree with the topics related. If someone likes chalk so be it, if someone like dogs same, it´s their money and they are free to spend/invest the way they think is the best.

                                                                      Let´s talk about the real topic here, let´s try once to work along, respecting differences, a hard fact is that no one will ever think the same way than another person, so why do we try to convince ppl they are wrong and we are right?

                                                                      Thanks in advance
                                                                      Comment
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