fitguy - 2 excellent posts.
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yea i love oak, ive bet them prob as much as any team the last 2 years..these last 2 gms are certainly the 1st time i went against them 2 days in a row and Sat could very well been 1st time i bet against them this yr, i def bet against cards plenty more than the A's, partly cause usually feel like have a pretty good read on gms cards will drop and of coarse cause there just more times cards are overvalued than the As being a public darling... that said i mean what can i do with this here gm? i mean i almost always fade cards vs this kind of lefty but as i said i thought i saw something Saturday that made me believe they could hit milone and hell they did, i didnt have chance to watch , saw on phone they had 5 runs after 3 innings =, then i saw they committed a bunch of errors and i guess offense was worried bout catching a flight. feel like everything i said before the gm turned out pretty accurate yet still didnt get the cash... i dunno, i hate missing on cards gms more than anything as i pride myself in knowing and capping them, and pretty damn well if i may say so myself..really nothing aggravates me more even tho i know it bound to happen sometimes.. oh well, w/o seeing gm i guess hats off to my fav AL team for snatching a gm i thought i capped very well out of my hands..Comment -
I was at the game. The As just outplayed em and the bullpen came through strong. Home fieldadvantge baby!!!Comment -
i wasn't complaining bout your pik one bit...i understood your clearly-stated reasoning...it was a value play...and it was the right play...
i was just shakin' my head at the "A-for-Amazing's"...they just won't you lie down and take a loss nicely.....even when u want 'em to like today...it's in their nature to keep scratching and clawing and never fold no matter the score...they're gonna screw up a lot of those season-total unders...
really, really appreciate you're taking the trouble to lay your ideas out the way you doComment -
It was unexplainably legit. As were down 3, came within a run, got down 3 again, got within a run then took the lead by jed lowries 2 run hr then josh donaldson hit one over the wall same spot in later innings to take lead up to 7-5. Such a huge comeback win for the As. Couldn't have wished for a better game, one of best this year n saw it right by home plate.
The feeling In the air was true competition and the As never gave up. Almost every player got a hit, and everyone did contribute.
Jed lowrie missed a ground ball n let it roll past em n just stood There thinking 2nd or left field was backing him up it looked absolutely rediculous like he took a grounder in warmups n never went back for the ball!!! I was thinking wtf r u doing n he never got bafk to ball n due to that BS the cards scored a run , good baserunning he just never stopped cuz he saw jed Actin the fool. Boy did he make up 4 it thoComment -
The oakland GRINDERS!!!! Home field advndtage they are at their best with us cheering em on!! I was beingg more Than loud out there, we made it hell 4 the cards lol. I was right by home plate cheerin on tommys swing and misses and hecklin @ the cards hella lolComment -
I can understand value plays n what not but forreal $20 ain't much if Ur betting hundreds or playin to win $100 at a time wouldn't u agree???
-120 and +120 ain't too big unless ur talkin grands..
120 win 100 and 100 win 120 is way different than 1200 to win 1000 or 1000 to win 1200.... don't trip on the lines to much they are only there to confuse us and draw us to a certain side and/or over tax a favorite making them look like more of a winner than they should be....
Would u agree? Wat u thinkComment -
cmon bro,, enjoy talkin with you but spare me the homer shit here, i dont do it and dont see much reason for it as we here to gamble not be cheerleaders...no clue what yo talking about with the "value" or doesnt matter? 1st off only reason to bet a gm is cause you feel the chances of winning are greater than the odds suggest, secondly i never said anything about it being a "value play", mainly cause i dont really use the word that often. but sure call it what you want, typically i always fade cards against soft tossing lefties but i saw something that made me believe they would hit milone, and guess what looks like they tagged his ass to me, so i got +120 on a team that lit up the favs starter for 5 runs in 1st 3 innings and now you here boasting cause it lost and telling me price doesnt matter?Comment -
oh i know you wernt brother,, just recapping to myself a little and agreeing with you those fukks are tough and why i bet them quite often..generally i have a pretty clear gm plan coming into every cards series and i believed they would lose this series coming in, even said when i bet waino Sat that no matter what i thought cards would lose to milone, then saw something that i thought was significant in the gm Saturday that made me deviate from the original plan, not upset that i did, if milone would have did to cards what most shitbag soft tossing lefties do and shut them down then i would have been pissed at myself but hell i guess i did see something cause they came out firing on his ass. if anything maybe i should have took fact i thought stl would hit him and looked into not only playing them but either team total or gm total as well but kinda tunnel visioned my excitement when i thougth cars were actually gonna hit a lefty and didnt really worry about any other factor.. again i know yo were not criticizing bro, no need i will handle that myself as you can see! lolComment -
Honestly game was close I ain't trying to brag or boast it was how the game went. I think As would have lost series in Cards home field its just how much I feel being at your own ballpark enhances the playing and chances of winning.
And the value stuff I am jus saying in order of what fit guy said I think he called it a value play
I didn't mean to insinuate u called it 1, was just askin your opinion on what you think about betting for value
I like what you said, a valuable play is a winner, F the numberComment -
what a shitty ass looking monday card, damn since im actually here capping now and have the time it be nice if i wasnt staring at a short card where im finding a hard time making a case for anything but juiced up fav...blah..anyone has any thoughts in next hour or so before i leave im all ears on angles to look into with this cardComment -
Noooo not saying price didnt matter. If I didnt feel like As had something to prove playing against these guys and wasn't a fan I would've bet Cards too. Don't hold against me this stuff about the game or what I said cuz honestly As barely stole this game. Didnt mean to bug u out just bein informationalComment -
If cards was +140 or so which is unthinkable and unreal Id say value too hard to pass up But in terms od your wager having value to it hit had a 90% chance at winning or more I call that valuable!!Comment -
I'm looking into it I had a big day today so playing small tomorrow. I'm heating Up again just tryna not b greedy n burn myself in.the azz tomorrow after winnin.
Took braves washington giants redsox and small on As . Lost $20 on orioles parlay w over 8.5 n I knewwww it wud go under lolololComment -
Id really really really enjoy hearing bout a cards game if u go to one again this year . Its a place I plan on going to when I can, want to see some of the best baseball the world has to offer in home theater!!!Comment -
home field really not huge deal for cards, not exactly sure what their home/road is this yr but generally they tend to play about same clip or slightly better on the road. maybe in stl oak doesnt keep up the energy level but i dunno, some teams i factor home field much more than others and cards home/road really means jack shit imo..
far as the "value" thing i mean i can find it annoying the way it is used around here by lots of ppl that wouldnt know the meaning of the word if it slapped them upside the head (fitguy is not one of those ppl). while i really dont use the word if we being real every play i make could be called a "value play" cause i dont play gms i dont see value in (whether it real value or perceived is anyones guess, lol) , i think you may get the wrong impression of what fit guy saying when he uses the term, he not saying it a value play for any reason other than cards had a higher possibility of winning that gm than the odds i played them at suggested hence "value", i make that play on that gm 1000 times i come out ahead, nothing more nothing less.. sure it nice to have the winner but unfortunately it really hard to get them all right so all you can do is make plays on teams you believe have a better chance of winning than what the line suggest (dogs or favs) and hopefully however you determine such things is sound..Comment -
Hahahhaa I just laughed out loud cuz yea I figured you would say as much, most true bettors dont go around taking all the +150s on the board for the day and expect to come out on top cuz it has "good value" like u said ppl donno what it means if they met it face first with a faceplant lolComment -
As always appreciate the reading BankerComment -
Hell yea to that Bank , all your plays def could be called value plays. Lots of analyzing and contemplating. Makes it worth the Risk And like u said the risk can sometimes get ya.
I've lost a lot of games this year where my team was winning entire match and lost in the end.
The one that haunts me most is Braves vs Reds At home. Back to back HR to walk off in 9th Off of Kimbrel. Wow.
Back to home field blabber, I agree about how Cards play. 9/10 games they play the same and I've noticed they Do compete really hard on road. I've seen maybe a small few games where they Seemed to comfortable at home and pitching didn't keep em in it enough n they barely missed a W. Maybe once or twice
The reds play amazing at home. Saw a game last year, the reds rookie hit a HR to group of guys in center, guy throws it back for rookie. Next batter up, boom HR goes to same group of guys and the guy pockets his well deserved souvenir After being so generous!!! Crazy stuff happens on home fields sometimes.
Btw if u got a min peep my replys in the other thread u posted in of mineComment -
You were spot on about them smashing offspeed cuz they hit Milone on his change ups and everything in first. A double, HR, a HR again, then coco stole Another doubleComment -
tigers ff +125.. back to being against ra dickhead where i much prefer (even tho have actually gotten a few wins betting him this yr).. ok where to begin,. 1st off dude hasnt put back 2 back solid starts together in over a month so dont buy he is getting anything figured out (of coarse ya'll know i never really bought this guy period), obviously way rodgers is built isnt very agreeable to his little gimmick pitch, go look at his home starts and you will find other than being shelled he has 3 decent to good home starts, you will also see those starts were against the chisux who dont hit any form of pitching, a sf team that was incredably cold when he faced them and again not exactly a offensive force, and tampa who has proven they really dont like the knuckler. rest of the time he been gettin clobbered by mostly good offenses well and sea. det batters combine for a .371 ba against dickface so fair to say knuckle doesnt cross these guys up...jays never seen this lefty and think alvarez has good enough changeup to keep them off balance for a while anyway.. no real desire to get into a battle of the pens here as jays trumps det pen by a mile so ill play ff and not have to sweat thru det pen drama late...Comment -
GL Bank like the Tigers FF. I opted to go with the over 9 today. Think Tigers going to hit Dickey, but don't trust Detroits Pen late, which will be a factor in this game since I doubt Alavrez goes much past 5-6. Kind of same logic as your FF bet.Comment -
Was looking for an Infante player prop but couldn't find any. He absolutely owns Dickey.Comment -
Off topic question Banker, sorry, where did you go to school? Any alumni? Thanks brother.Comment -
School? Not me bro, I was on to bigger and better things by time I was 16, so I thought anyways (hindsight prob not so much,lol). I guess you could say I'm a ulum of the Mississippi department of corrections as that where I got my GED (98th percentile if u must know, lol) while I was walking down that felony possession wrap. I wouldn't suggest driving thru that state w a trunk full of pot, no sense of humor down there at all.Comment -
Atleast it was trees buddy, where I'm @ all ppl dp is drive Round trunk full of pot. Maybe ur state will legalize one day. Brutal. Glad you are thru wit that!!!! I got off probp almost a year or two ago now. Was on probo 16 til bout 22 lol. Fuxxn lame isn't it!!!! Feels good to be freeComment -
Damn I will be.chasing tigers tomorrow.no way they lose 4 in a row.. I stayed off This game other than $50 parlay with bluejays tied to Nats and Reds and RaysComment -
Not much into chasing, take it day by day. Parlay prob money. Looked like chalky ass day when I went thru card. Not sure bout reds, they not playing all that great either and I don't like teams off a long road trip then no day off when they come back home.. Wanna play nats, either need a parlay partner or maybe the -1 line -136 not bad.Comment -
Bank...I decided to run with your WAS -1 idea, which is available "off the shelf" at 5d as you point out at -136....
but I "rolled my own" at 5dimes for -128.18 (a 5.75% lower-price/bonus payout) out of their own ML (-182) and RL (+120)...like this, pro-rated to win $100 for clarity
ML(-182): -82.73/+45.45
RL(+120): -45.45/+54.54
Total: -128.18 / 0 / +100
for details: http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...1rl-wager.htmlComment -
makes sense fit..figures tony charges a little for convenience..Comment -
nats/fish ml parlay +168
fish -1 +107.. if there a more bogus 9-3 record and sub 4 era than jason marquis id like to see it. this dude walks as many as he strikes out, atm opponents babip is light years lower than any other time in his career, only 37% of his pitches are strikes and not like he has the stuff that wont get hit if it in the zone. guess he geting away with it cause he has a very good ground ball rate but this shit not gonna last forever, you walk as many as you strike out, dont throw strikes and your fastball tops out below 90 you are due a wake up call....on other side fernandez is almost striking out 1 per inning, has a whip barely over 1 and is a ace in the making..all a sudden seems like fish might actually warrant this number...Comment
