Pluthero's 2013 MLB Thread

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  • Catchn_Picks
    SBR MVP
    • 09-02-11
    • 2984

    #246
    thank you for your quick response..got it now...I will prob. lower my unit size to make it fit your methods...great season so far...classy thread...gl all
    Comment
    • Brebos
      SBR MVP
      • 02-24-13
      • 1209

      #247
      Originally posted by Pluthero
      Yesterday: 4-8; -10.60X I can't believe St. Louis took a beating like that. I'm a Locke fan, but I never saw that coming.
      TTD:
      133-105; +41.79X

      Maybe I should keep track of how I do on specific days. That's the second Sunday in a row where I've taken a bath.
      Maan I told you sundays are bloodbaths, you need to bet accordingly, bet the unexpected or get buried It's better to stay away.
      Comment
      • Pluthero
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 12-09-09
        • 992

        #248
        Hey Ravensfan, I just looked over that game again. It's just that Tigers pen that worries me, but that line's pretty heavy. When I bet heavy on a team that's -250 or more that means I REALLY like them.
        Comment
        • Pluthero
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 12-09-09
          • 992

          #249
          Originally posted by Brebos
          Maan I told you sundays are bloodbaths, you need to bet accordingly, bet the unexpected or get buried It's better to stay away.
          When I get time I'm going to go through last year's thread and see if I typically got hammered on Sundays. I can't think of a reason why they would be more unpredictable than other days. They're typically travel days, but other than that it's not like ballplayers are like the rest of us schmucks that have to go work first thing Monday morning.
          Comment
          • RavensFan2k3
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 08-18-12
            • 17378

            #250
            Originally posted by Pluthero
            Hey Ravensfan, I just looked over that game again. It's just that Tigers pen that worries me, but that line's pretty heavy. When I bet heavy on a team that's -250 or more that means I REALLY like them.
            My biggest concern is that Scherzer has a 7.25 ERA in four home starts versus the Twins, plus the twins bats are coming around
            Comment
            • TankHankerous
              SBR MVP
              • 03-22-12
              • 2088

              #251
              Pelfrey stinks, Tigers eat twinkies, Miguel Cabrera

              All systems go
              Comment
              • Maddhatter
                SBR MVP
                • 06-12-09
                • 4350

                #252
                Originally posted by Pluthero
                When I get time I'm going to go through last year's thread and see if I typically got hammered on Sundays. I can't think of a reason why they would be more unpredictable than other days. They're typically travel days, but other than that it's not like ballplayers are like the rest of us schmucks that have to go work first thing Monday morning.
                Sundays like you said are typically travel days and at times Coaches will rest some of their regular starters if they already locked the win in the series. Sweeps will still happen and so will upsets but due to it being the last day of the series, it will be perhaps be more unpredictable due to lineup changes. Just brainstorming here and not really saying Sundays are a stay away day by any means. I don't know if I do bad on Sundays vs any other day either.
                Comment
                • Pluthero
                  SBR Wise Guy
                  • 12-09-09
                  • 992

                  #253
                  Originally posted by Pluthero
                  4/29/13

                  Yankees -245 3.5X L
                  Tigers -230 0.5X W
                  Mets -165 1.5X L
                  Braves +125 1.0X W
                  Cubs -155 2.5X W
                  Royals -135 2.5X L
                  Pirates +120 2.0X L
                  Cardinals -135 1.5X L
                  Giants -105 0.5X W

                  That's all I got for today; hoping for a rebound. GL everyone!
                  Yesterday: 4-5; -13.7X
                  TTD: 137-110; +28.09X

                  That sucked. I'd really like to win a couple of units today so I can finish the month up 30 units.
                  Comment
                  • Pluthero
                    SBR Wise Guy
                    • 12-09-09
                    • 992

                    #254
                    4/30/13
                    Yankees -300 3.0X
                    Red Sox -130 2.5X
                    Tigers -245 2.0X
                    Braves -110 4.0X
                    Marlins +105 1.0X
                    Indians -102 1.5X
                    Cubs -145 1.0X
                    Brewers -145 1.0X
                    Royals -130 3.0X
                    Cardinals -15 1.0X
                    Giants -125 0.5X
                    Comment
                    • Swarles
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 04-26-13
                      • 102

                      #255
                      Baseball can eat my shit.
                      Comment
                      • Pluthero
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 12-09-09
                        • 992

                        #256
                        Somehow I left out:
                        Rangers -189 4.5X

                        i haven't capped the last 3 games. Hopefully I can get those done before they start.
                        Comment
                        • tatddy
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 03-02-10
                          • 10779

                          #257
                          Have you calculated your profit on chalk plays over a certain number? Ie. where did you finish laying juice over -150 last year?

                          If not no sweat just curious. I respect your work but personally rarely lay this kind of juice.
                          Comment
                          • Pluthero
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 12-09-09
                            • 992

                            #258
                            I have not, but considering the losses I get hit with from time to time on heavily juiced games, I should. It's a good idea and when I get some time I'll do that.
                            Comment
                            • tatddy
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 03-02-10
                              • 10779

                              #259
                              Originally posted by Pluthero
                              I have not, but considering the losses I get hit with from time to time on heavily juiced games, I should. It's a good idea and when I get some time I'll do that.
                              If you offer up points to calculate it from this year and or your thread from last year someone here might so it for you. People here love to work for pts.
                              Comment
                              • RavensFan2k3
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 08-18-12
                                • 17378

                                #260
                                Where did you get Cleveland at -102
                                Comment
                                • EXhoosier10
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 07-06-09
                                  • 3122

                                  #261
                                  Originally posted by tatddy
                                  If you offer up points to calculate it from this year and or your thread from last year someone here might so it for you. People here love to work for pts.
                                  Pay up bro
                                  0-0.99u bets...3.04u…21-13-1…62%
                                  1-1.99u bets...-4.43u…35-33-3…51%
                                  2-2.99u bets...-30.67u…25-33-1…43%
                                  3-3.99u bets...33.23u…34-18-0…65%
                                  4-4.99u bets...34.97u…15-6-0…71%
                                  5-5.99u bets...7.13u…7-4-0…64%
                                  6-6.99u bets...-6.5u…0-1-0…0%
                                  All bets...36.77u…137-108-5…56%

                                  Totals are a little off, but close enough.
                                  Comment
                                  • Pluthero
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 12-09-09
                                    • 992

                                    #262
                                    Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                                    Pay up bro
                                    0-0.99u bets...3.04u…21-13-1…62%
                                    1-1.99u bets...-4.43u…35-33-3…51%
                                    2-2.99u bets...-30.67u…25-33-1…43%
                                    3-3.99u bets...33.23u…34-18-0…65%
                                    4-4.99u bets...34.97u…15-6-0…71%
                                    5-5.99u bets...7.13u…7-4-0…64%
                                    6-6.99u bets...-6.5u…0-1-0…0%
                                    All bets...36.77u…137-108-5…56%

                                    Totals are a little off, but close enough.
                                    Thanks man, but what about normalizing it for chalk? Say, Ev to -120, -120 to -140, -140 to -160, etc.....
                                    Comment
                                    • Pluthero
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 12-09-09
                                      • 992

                                      #263
                                      Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                      Where did you get Cleveland at -102
                                      It was on SBR this morning. My local had them at -105.
                                      Comment
                                      • tatddy
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 03-02-10
                                        • 10779

                                        #264
                                        Originally posted by Pluthero
                                        Thanks man, but what about normalizing it for chalk? Say, Ev to -120, -120 to -140, -140 to -160, etc.....
                                        Yeah exactly. Need to know if you're breaking even at least on these -150+ plays.
                                        Comment
                                        • Pluthero
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 12-09-09
                                          • 992

                                          #265
                                          Adding...
                                          Angels -115 1.5X
                                          Rockies +125 1.0X
                                          Orioles -118 3.0X
                                          Comment
                                          • Pluthero
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 12-09-09
                                            • 992

                                            #266
                                            Originally posted by tatddy
                                            Yeah exactly. Need to know if you're breaking even at least on these -150+ plays.
                                            Yes, and if anyone wants to do this for my 2012 thread that would be even better. My methodologies have remained relatively constant.

                                            Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.
                                            Comment
                                            • tatddy
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 03-02-10
                                              • 10779

                                              #267
                                              Brave taking the Angels after they wasted 6 hours of their life yesterday and lost their leadoff hitter (guess it's even since Crisp is out). I think Parker throws a gem today.
                                              Comment
                                              • Pluthero
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 12-09-09
                                                • 992

                                                #268
                                                Both pitchers are hard to predict this year. Richards just went 7 scoreless against Detroit 10 days ago with 8 punchouts. Then he got knocked around a little against Seattle. Parker's had the same type of year if not worse.

                                                I watched a little of Parker's last start and I recall a lengthy discussion about how his fastball flattened out this year. I couldn't tell from the little I watched, but I don't remember him missing a whole lot of bats.
                                                Comment
                                                • tatddy
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 03-02-10
                                                  • 10779

                                                  #269
                                                  Originally posted by Pluthero
                                                  Both pitchers are hard to predict this year. Richards just went 7 scoreless against Detroit 10 days ago with 8 punchouts. Then he got knocked around a little against Seattle. Parker's had the same type of year if not worse.

                                                  I watched a little of Parker's last start and I recall a lengthy discussion about how his fastball flattened out this year. I couldn't tell from the little I watched, but I don't remember him missing a whole lot of bats.
                                                  True but J Ham and Trumbo will cure what ails you when you're having trouble missing bats.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Pluthero
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 12-09-09
                                                    • 992

                                                    #270
                                                    I see your J Ham and Trumbo and raise you...B. Moss and the Chronicles of Reddick.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • tatddy
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 03-02-10
                                                      • 10779

                                                      #271
                                                      Originally posted by Pluthero
                                                      I see your J Ham and Trumbo and raise you...B. Moss and the Chronicles of Reddick.
                                                      Haha...can't argue that. I'll still take the home team in a coin flip after a 19 inning win. And...all I can see is Moss with a pie in his face...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • grim259
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 11-04-12
                                                        • 187

                                                        #272
                                                        What do you think about the Tigers and Rangers team runs over 4.5?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • Pluthero
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 12-09-09
                                                          • 992

                                                          #273
                                                          Originally posted by tatddy
                                                          Haha...can't argue that. I'll still take the home team in a coin flip after a 19 inning win. And...all I can see is Moss with a pie in his face...
                                                          If it comes to that I'm definitely in trouble. Good luck tonight brother.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • tatddy
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 03-02-10
                                                            • 10779

                                                            #274
                                                            Originally posted by Pluthero
                                                            If it comes to that I'm definitely in trouble. Good luck tonight brother.
                                                            I meant pie in his face from last night. I was at that game. You too pal. With you on Braves, Marlins, Indians.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Pluthero
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 12-09-09
                                                              • 992

                                                              #275
                                                              Originally posted by grim259
                                                              What do you think about the Tigers and Rangers team runs over 4.5?
                                                              Not my forte, but my uneducated guess tells you that Detroit will sail over that while the Rangers could sink or swim.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Pluthero
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 12-09-09
                                                                • 992

                                                                #276
                                                                Originally posted by tatddy
                                                                I meant pie in his face from last night. I was at that game. You too pal. With you on Braves, Marlins, Indians.
                                                                Damn, you stuck around for that?!?! I'm crazy jealous man.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • EXhoosier10
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 07-06-09
                                                                  • 3122

                                                                  #277
                                                                  Originally posted by Pluthero
                                                                  Thanks man, but what about normalizing it for chalk? Say, Ev to -120, -120 to -140, -140 to -160, etc.....
                                                                  Missed the entire point of this exercise..

                                                                  +230 to +145 … 5-9… -1.19u
                                                                  +140 to +122 … 11-13… +11.78u
                                                                  +120 to +100 … 20-21… -3.74u
                                                                  -105 to -119 … 23-14 … +25.39u
                                                                  -120 to -139 … 31-23 … -9.75u
                                                                  -140 to -153 … 15-12 … -8.88u
                                                                  -155 to -175 … 18-12 … +8.62u
                                                                  -182 to -265 … 14-4 … +14.55u

                                                                  Arbitrary breakpoints -- trying to move out of my apt. Do what you need with the file

                                                                  Pluthero 2013.xlsx
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Pluthero
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 12-09-09
                                                                    • 992

                                                                    #278
                                                                    Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                                                                    Missed the entire point of this exercise..

                                                                    +230 to +145 … 5-9… -1.19u
                                                                    +140 to +122 … 11-13… +11.78u
                                                                    +120 to +100 … 20-21… -3.74u
                                                                    -105 to -119 … 23-14 … +25.39u
                                                                    -120 to -139 … 31-23 … -9.75u
                                                                    -140 to -153 … 15-12 … -8.88u
                                                                    -155 to -175 … 18-12 … +8.62u
                                                                    -182 to -265 … 14-4 … +14.55u

                                                                    Arbitrary breakpoints -- trying to move out of my apt. Do what you need with the file

                                                                    [ATTACH]56434[/ATTACH]
                                                                    You rock, I just tied all my points up in bets, but I'll throw you a few if I win a game.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Ron29301
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-27-11
                                                                      • 2311

                                                                      #279
                                                                      Originally posted by EXhoosier10
                                                                      Missed the entire point of this exercise..

                                                                      +230 to +145 … 5-9… -1.19u
                                                                      +140 to +122 … 11-13… +11.78u
                                                                      +120 to +100 … 20-21… -3.74u
                                                                      -105 to -119 … 23-14 … +25.39u
                                                                      -120 to -139 … 31-23 … -9.75u
                                                                      -140 to -153 … 15-12 … -8.88u
                                                                      -155 to -175 … 18-12 … +8.62u
                                                                      -182 to -265 … 14-4 … +14.55u

                                                                      Arbitrary breakpoints -- trying to move out of my apt. Do what you need with the file

                                                                      [ATTACH]56434[/ATTACH]
                                                                      Good info big guy.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • tatddy
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 03-02-10
                                                                        • 10779

                                                                        #280
                                                                        Originally posted by tatddy
                                                                        I meant pie in his face from last night. I was at that game. You too pal. With you on Braves, Marlins, Indians.
                                                                        Comment
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