Pluthero's 2013 MLB Thread

[Catchn_Picks]

thanks Pluthero...gl all

[Swarles]

Leake is killing me right now.

[pimpinaces]

Fuk me for tailing. About to lose all of them

[tatddy]

Fuk me for tailing. About to lose all of them

You deserve to lose them all.

[pimpinaces]

You deserve to lose them all.

Fuk u

[tatddy]

Fuk u

Make your own plays son. And if you choose to tail people it's your risk. Guy has killed it the past few years in baseball. Not his fault you picked the wrong plays.

Save the negativity for the rest of your life not his thread.

[pimpinaces]

Did I blame him you dumb asss? I was blaming myself. Mind your fukking business and stop co-signing

[tatddy]

Did I blame him you dumb asss? I was blaming myself. Mind your fukking business and stop co-signing

If you were actually blaming your self it wasn't clear in your post. If that's the case then my bad for jumping at you. Can't stand guys who blind tail good posters and then climb into their threads and complain about it.

[pimpinaces]

And I do my own plays I go real small in baseball but if you go 0-10 it's not small anymore

[TankHankerous]

If you can't handle an 0-10 night get a new hobby

[pimpinaces]

Lol another cheerleader

[Pluthero]

Wow, I go to one cigar fest and all hell breaks loose in here.

[pimpinaces]

lol could have been worse..keep picking winners and good luck to you P-hero

[Brebos]

Fuk me for tailing. About to lose all of them

How is 5-5 losing all of them you dumbfuck. Word of advice: When you tail someone do it for a substantial amount of time.

[pimpinaces]

How is 5-5 losing all of them you dumbfuck. Word of advice: When you tail someone do it for a substantial amount of time.

who the fukk are you again ...his personal jock strap?? whats with all the forum deputies here...

[Pluthero]

4/27/14
Reds -110 1.5X L
Braves -125 2.5X L
Athletics -145 0.5X L
Yankees -165 3.0XW
Rangers -150 2.5X L
Cubs -135 1.5X W
Red Sox -265 3.5X W
Rays -125 2.0X W
Rockies +145 2.5X L
Giants -115 1.5X L

That's all I got except for the last game on the board. I'm going to wait until later to cap that one. Good luck everyone!

Adding...Mariners -162 0.5X W

Good luck Swarles and welcome to SBR.
I don't think Sabathia gets hit much today. The last time he got rocked (against Boston) he went out and threw 7 shutout innings 5 days later.

Yesterday: 5-6; -2.975X
TTD: 129-97; +52.39X

[Pluthero]

pimpinaces: I appreciate the good luck wish, but please keep your comments positive. When you come in here saying words like, "Fuk me for tailing. About to lose all of them" it can get people defensive because it sounds like you are blaming my picks. That's why Tatddy jumped in. Especially when you post that before half the games have even begun.

I've had plenty of bad days throughout my threads and will continue to do so. It's how you tolerate those days while resting assured that a day in the black is coming that will make you a successful gambler emotionally, which is key to being a successful gambler at all. It took me far too long to realize this, but keeping your emotions in check will lead to things like better money management and avoiding chases.

If you come in here with unchecked emotions posting vitriol that sounds like it's directed at another poster (you clarified that it wasn't, but first impressions count), don't be surprised when posters like Tatddy, TankHankerous, and Brebos jump your case.

OK, now that I've said my piece, I hope you stick around and we have some fun and most importantly - make some freakin' money.

[pimpinaces]

You got it man...gl today

[RetardStrength]

Hey bud. I need some wagering 101. This week has been a roller coaster to say the least. Down around 5xx weds and by Friday back up 2xx. I deal with a local book so gotta remember the "value" working against me.

This morning I am +80$. Yes, a mere 80 after pounding him for 750 last week and 460 the week before.

On weeks like this do I/you even bother capping to try and make it a "profitable" week or do you put the phone and computer away and be glad you will go into the next week with a small +balance?

I do want to make plays today but I feel like I'm setting myself up for a letdown and I've been here before. Sundays have typically been a very positive day for me.

Anyone is welcome to give their $.02

[tavesims]

push on dude

[Pluthero]

4/28/13
Yankees -106 0.5X
Mets Ev 1.0X
Cubs -125 2.0X
Reds Ev 3.0X
Indians Gm1 -105 2.0X
Cardinals -201 3.0X
Orioles +130 0.5X
Brewers +160 2.0X
Padres +105 0.5X
Rockies +125 1.0X
Mariners -115 3.0X
Braves +125 2.5X...the Minor-Fister matchup is my favorite today

Good luck everyone!

[Pluthero]

RS, here's my take:
I cap every single day that I can. If you look at my record thus far this year, I'm averaging nearly 2 units/day. Without any evidence to the contrary, I'm going to assume that my performance isn't affected one way or the other by what day of the week it is. Therefore, if I lay off a day, I figure I'm not going to win those 2 units. That's not cool with me.

I'm not saying you should wager every day, but I've been doing this for so long that I have an average expectation for myself.

I also think it's funny that you said you usually do well on Sundays, because last Sunday when I lost my ass someone mentioned that they usually do poorly and thus lay off.

[Pluthero]

tavesims, thanks for backing up this thread, but I think we're all good now. I fully expect aces to bring nothing but positive energy in here from now on.

BTW, everyone...I don't want to give off the impression that I'm Kevin Nealon. Complaining about bad beats, etc... is OK by me.

[16johnnymac]

4/28/13
Yankees -106 0.5X
Mets Ev 1.0X
Cubs -125 2.0X
Reds Ev 3.0X
Indians Gm1 -105 2.0X
Cardinals -201 3.0X
Orioles +130 0.5X
Brewers +160 2.0X
Padres +105 0.5X
Rockies +125 1.0X
Mariners -115 3.0X
Braves +125 2.5X

Good luck everyone!

Nice job keep up the hard work are your plays posted in any order ( like top best plays?)

Thank you
Hope you break the books

Johnny Mac 16

[Pluthero]

Thanks Johnny Mac, good luck to you too.

You can tell my favorite plays by the way I weight them by units. Today it would be the Reds, Cardinals, and Mariners.

[joco]

hey bud. just curious why the chase on the reds? i personally think wash takes it again today

[Pluthero]

hey bud. just curious why the chase on the reds? i personally think wash takes it again today

Mostly because Cingrani's pitched brilliantly since getting called up and I think he's undervalued. That and I like the Reds offense better than Washington's, especially with Zimmerman still out.

[Swarles]

Seriously man, don't know how you are so confident with these picks everyday. I see NO patterns in baseball whatsoever. There is no such thing as a team on a hot streak or cold streak. They flip flop everyday. haha.

[Pluthero]

4/28/13
Yankees -106 0.5XW
Mets Ev 1.0X L
Cubs -125 2.0X L
Reds Ev 3.0X W
Indians Gm1 -105 2.0X L
Cardinals -201 3.0X L
Orioles +130 0.5X L
Brewers +160 2.0X L
Padres +105 0.5X W
Rockies +125 1.0X L
Mariners -115 3.0X W
Braves +125 2.5X L

Good luck everyone!

Yesterday: 4-8; -10.60X I can't believe St. Louis took a beating like that. I'm a Locke fan, but I never saw that coming.
TTD: 133-105; +41.79X

Maybe I should keep track of how I do on specific days. That's the second Sunday in a row where I've taken a bath.

[Pluthero]

Seriously man, don't know how you are so confident with these picks everyday. I see NO patterns in baseball whatsoever. There is no such thing as a team on a hot streak or cold streak. They flip flop everyday. haha.

It's just a matter of applying the same principles to every game. It really took me a number of years before I was consistently profitable.

[Pluthero]

4/29/13

Yankees -245 3.5X
Tigers -230 0.5X
Mets -165 1.5X
Braves +125 1.0X
Cubs -155 2.5X
Royals -135 2.5X
Pirates +120 2.0X
Cardinals -135 1.5X
Giants -105 0.5X

That's all I got for today; hoping for a rebound. GL everyone!

[Catchn_Picks]

First Pluthero...ty for your postings...you are a "must stop by" thread for me every day. 2 quick questions...you may have already answered them but I tried to review the thread first before asking.

From what I can gather or surmise...I think a play of NYY -245 3.5X means betting 3.5 units at -245 for whatever that win would be?

Or does it mean to win 3.5 units at -245?

A dog of ATL +125 1.0X would mean to win 1 unit or risk one unit?

Also, your .5 unit bets seem a bit funny to me in that they are 1/8th of a 4 unit bet (for example) and therefore seem a bit inconsequential to the overall success numbers. Are they just to be considered action type plays? Sometimes I ignore them just because they hold so little value compared to the bigger plays because of the wide diversity of unit spread.

Your thoughts would be appreciated.

Thank you again for sharing your talents with us. It must be a hassle sometimes to post across a long baseball season. GL to you and all.

[Pluthero]

Good questions. When I bet a favorite I mean that amount to win, so in the above example you're risking 8.5ish on the Yanks to win 3.5.
You would risk 1X on the Braves to win 1.25 because they're a dog. I don't have any evidence that this maximizes profit, it's just how I've always wagered.

The 0.5 bets are pretty inconsiquential compared to a 4 unit play, but I think they still hold a little value. This isn't likely to happen because I don't get the best lines, but if you couldn't get the line I have it might be a no-bet.

Im happy to share my plays. Good luck on what you pick and thanks for posting!

[RavensFan2k3]

Thank you for posting plays man. Just all the plays I was lookin at, you seem to like as well. Was just wondering why you arent going bigger on the Tigers game

[Pluthero]

I don't have my cap sheet in front of me, but I think it's mostly due to Detroit's pen.