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Mercury vs. Aces Predictions, Picks & WNBA Odds: Las Vegas Begins Title Defense

C Jackson Cowart

Last Updated: May 14, 2024 5:13 PM EDT • 2 min 41 sec read.

A'ja Wilson (22) of the Las Vegas Aces shoots against Moriah Jefferson (8) and Megan Gustafson (10) of the Phoenix Mercury, as we offer our best Mercury vs. Aces predictions and expert picks for Tuesday's season opener in Las Vegas.
A'ja Wilson (22) of the Las Vegas Aces shoots against Moriah Jefferson (8) and Megan Gustafson (10) of the Phoenix Mercury at T-Mobile Arena on September 10, 2023 in Las Vegas. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images via AFP.

On Tuesday, the Las Vegas Aces welcome the Phoenix Mercury to Michelob ULTRA Arena for the season opener. Our Mercury vs. Aces predictions based on the best WNBA odds will have you ready for the 10 p.m. ET tip off, aired on ESPN2.

The Las Vegas Aces enter the season as the undisputed favorites according to the WNBA championship odds, having clinched consecutive titles. Their pursuit of a historic three-peat begins in the season opener against the Phoenix Mercury on Tuesday, airing at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

The Aces are a commanding 13.5-point favorite, across our best sports betting sites. Their dominant performance in the 2023 season, spearheaded by superstar A'ja Wilson and her formidable teammates, has firmly established them as a powerhouse in the league.

Wilson herself enters the season as the front-runner in the preseasonWNBA MVP odds, setting the stage for what promises to be a thrilling showdown on Tuesday night.

To accompany our Fever vs. Sun predictions and Liberty vs. Mystics predictions, here are our best Mercury vs. Aces predictions (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mercury vs. Aces expert picks

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Mercury vs. Aces predictions for Tuesday

Aces -13.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐

I get that our best sportsbooks can only offer a line so short on the first night of the WNBA season. But I'm rather surprised we aren't seeing a bigger spread between these two.

Last year, the Aces opened the year with a 41-point win over the Seattle Storm and finished the year with the WNBA's best record (34-6) and average scoring margin (plus-12.6) en route to a second straight title.

On the other end are the Mercury, who were outscored by 8.3 points per game and finished with a league-worst 9-31 record. Phoenix should rebound this year, but with Brittney Griner (foot) uncertain to play and the Mercury's depth still a major question, I could see this game getting out of hand by the third quarter.

Best odds: -110 via bet365

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Aces Over 91.5 points ⭐⭐⭐

If you make only one bet on this season-opening matchup, I'd prefer the spread, but it's hard to ignore this gigantic mismatch on paper.

The Aces paced the league in offensive rating (114.8) last year with three players in the top 11 in scoring. The Mercury, on the other hand, finished dead last in defensive rating (109.9), and that weakness could be exacerbated Tuesday if Griner - one of the league's best defenders when healthy - is out or plays at less than 100%.

This is only a three-star play because of these -118 odds, which represent a 54.13% implied probability with an $8.47 profit on a $10 wager, per our odds converter. That isn't exactly a bargain, but it's still a bet worth making in this matchup.

Best odds: -118 via FanDuel

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Mercury vs. Aces info & odds

  • When: Tuesday, May 14
  • Tip-off: 10 p.m. ET
  • Where: Michelob ULTRA Arena (Las Vegas)
  • How to watch: ESPN2
  • Favorite: Aces -13.5 (-110 via bet365)
DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
Aces-13.5 (-110)-13.5 (-114)-13.5 (-115)-13.5 (-110)-13.5 (-110)
Mercury+13.5 (-110)+13.5 (-106)+13.5 (-105)+13.5 (-110)+13.5 (-110)

Mercury-Aces predictions made Monday at 5:30 p.m. ET.

Tuesday's WNBA picks

Here are our best sports betting sites:

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Written By:
C Jackson Cowart
C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning sports writer, reporter, and editor with nearly a decade of experience in the industry, with previous stops at theScore, Action Network, Forbes, and ESPN before joining the Sportsbook Review team. He's written about sports betting for the last five years, with a specialty in NFL, NBA, MLB, and collegiate futures markets and a weakness for novelty props and betting on the eventual runner-up. He's also an avid fantasy sports manager and commissioner and runs a sports card business on the side. He's a fiercely proud Oregon native and UNC alumnus, and he can't seem to stop betting on Ben Simmons to win MVP.