[girlscoutcookies]

Mucho gracias honeyB. Hoping Groth can hammer home first serves for me today.

[girlscoutcookies]

Goffin -6 +346

If he hits this for me I shall tweet him nudes of my girlfriend

[JohnnyRudeboy]

GL Cookies!

[matt1216]

Marchenko, never doubt the ginger bro

[girlscoutcookies]

Marchenko, never doubt the ginger bro

Groths a Ginger & he just took a nice steaming dump on my chest

[girlscoutcookies]

Goffin +100

[matt1216]

I wouldn't pick goffin here.

[SirtySree]

Hard to pass up on someone at + odds with the finals record that he has got, especially in recent times.

[matt1216]

Sirtysree, I saw something on the book for this play, specifically. Nothing against anyone's intelligence.

[brodie]

Sirtysree, I saw something on the book for this play, specifically.

what does this mean?

[matt1216]

what does this mean?

Ill list the play next time I see it

[fitguy67]

Sirtysree, I saw something on the book for this play, specifically. Nothing against anyone's intelligence.

what does this mean?

the book is obviously tipping its hand, revealing which side a play they are trying to trap we stupid mortals who don't know the future...

you may call it a form of numerical "tea-leave reading"...but to those of us hip to the matt1216 beat it's a "new trend"

these discoveries always have an "extremely high hit rate" right up until he starts posting them...

anyhow, the pattern of numbers in the online book somehow shouted to matt1216 "we want you take Goffin"...because they knew he would lose, those omniscient bastards

hopefully this becomes a new theme over in the winners-pickin' thread...leading to all sorts of fun, as we try to nail matt1216 down on which of his two-dozen daily plays (which seem to generally have an extremely low hit rate, and a strong tendency to increase in bet-size as the thread goes on and the net losses mount)...anyhow, of all these plays, which ones are the result of the extremely profitable "new trend"

that's as much as i can figure out so far, broadie

[SirtySree]

the book is obviously tipping its hand, revealing which side a play they are trying to trap we stupid mortals who don't know the future...

you may call it a form of numerical "tea-leave reading"...but to those of us hip to the matt1216 beat it's a "new trend"

these discoveries always have an "extremely high hit rate" right up until he starts posting them...

anyhow, the pattern of numbers in the online book somehow shouted to matt1216 "we want you take Goffin"...because they knew he would lose, those omniscient bastards

hopefully this becomes a new theme over in the winners-pickin' thread...leading to all sorts of fun, as we try to nail matt1216 down on which of his two-dozen daily plays are the result of the "new trend" with the extremely high hit rate

that's as much as i can figure out so far, broadie

Btw he has already shown us that particular trend and it failed miserably as usual. What it basically was is that he finds matches with the same ML price but different 2-0 set prices, for example. ie. mahut @2 in one match and kuznetsov @2 in another but the 2-0 is @3 for mahut and @3.5 for kuznetsov at his book so he thinks the book is tipping off mahut to win 2-0. reason that this fails miserable is the fact that every book differs and all it really means is that on that particular book, a little bit more money has gone on the 2-0 for mahut than in the other match

[fitguy67]

yes, and the fact that with a 5%-min "rake" on each choice guaranteed (without risk) to a book that achieves balance on each side (by boosting the payout on the thin side/shrinking it on the fat side)...a book tends to not want to, in general form an "opinion" on a match (ie. try to steer/"trap" the public on the side that their opinion says will lose...

opinionated lines DO form from time to time, generally in hi-profile/big-$ markets...it is in essence the book gambling...if they're right (and they have succeeded to steer/trap more $ to the losing side) they score windfall $ over the basic rake (the chalk difference between the dog/fave prices)...but if they are wrong, the book loses money relative to what they'd have made with a non-opinionated line...and in some cases they may be very successful in steering money to what they thing will be the losing side...and end up actually losing money to the public when that side cashes...

it's a real headache to actually "work" a line actively according to an opinion of the future...and since there's a damn-nice rake guaranteed to them by the chalk if they automatically avoid an opinion and just balance the money passively..to the point that actively worked/opinionated lines are MUCH rarer than people imagine...and tend to be confined to the hi-profile events (such as playoff final series, tenny slams, golf majors, etc.)

so, interpreting observable price differences as books trying to steer you ACTIVELY into one side because they know it'll lose (rather than trying to steer you PASSIVELY into the thin side to help them balance the sides and thus lock in the chalk) is always an option, but it is exhausting intellectually and most often inaccurate

when there's a hugely public event, it's good to suspect steering/trapping motives behind initial line-settings and subsequent price movements...but most of the time, it's better to forget this extra layer of intrigue and concentrate on finding value in poorly-placed lines (which creates a bargain price on one side of bet)--a difficult enough undertaking on its own at the best of times

[girlscoutcookies]

French Open overall

26 - 29 +9.71u

[girlscoutcookies]

Goffin +100 L
Goffin -6 +346 L
Groth +112 L
Monfils +1.5 +102 W
Goffin -1.5 sets +154 W
Chiudellini +314 L
Ito +2.5 -105 W
Pospisil +1.5 +121 W
Bachinger +127 W
Kush +120 L

Grass Season Overall

5-5 +0.99u

[girlscoutcookies]

kyrgios +130
mathieu +2.5 +112
youzhny +2.5 +110
gulbis +1.5 +118
monfils/rosol under 22.5 -105
giraldo +248
Lu 1st set +552

[JohnnyRudeboy]

kyrigos +130
mathieu +2.5 +112
youzhny +2.5 +110
gulbis +1.5 +118
monfils/rosol under 22.5 -105
giraldo +248

WTF DUDE THAT UNDER IS JUICED

[girlscoutcookies]

WTF DUDE THAT UNDER IS JUICED

[Ushpa]

I would really love to hear your reasoning on that Lu 1st set +552 play. Do you think that Murray just gets off to a slow start or what???

[girlscoutcookies]

I would really love to hear your reasoning on that Lu 1st set +552 play. Do you think that Murray just gets off to a slow start or what???

Ya. Close but no cigar.

[girlscoutcookies]

kyrgios +130
mathieu +2.5 +112
youzhny +2.5 +110
gulbis +1.5 +118
monfils/rosol under 22.5 -105
giraldo +248
Lu 1st set +552

4-3 +1.35u


Grass Season Overall

9-8 +2.34u

[girlscoutcookies]

june 17

gulbis +587
coric +600
raonic -118
wawa/anderson under 23.5 -105
karlovic/zverev under 25.5 -110

[girlscoutcookies]

Grass Season Overall

10-12 -0.81u

[girlscoutcookies]

isner +122
verdasco +1.5 sets +217

[girlscoutcookies]

isner +122
verdasco +1.5 sets +217

1-1 +0.22u

Grass Season Overall

11-13 -0.59u

[girlscoutcookies]

Mayer +1.5 sets +262

[girlscoutcookies]

anderson -1.5 sets +183
karlovic +1.5 sets +158

[girlscoutcookies]

lopez to win nottingham +362

[girlscoutcookies]

Grass Season Overall

11-16 -3.59u

[girlscoutcookies]

bedene -4.5 -101
soeda +243
bemelmans +194

[girlscoutcookies]

Grass Season Overall

12-18 -4.6u

[girlscoutcookies]

cuevas +301
cuevas +1.5 sets +127
mayer -2.5 +110

[girlscoutcookies]

French Open overall
26 - 29 +9.71u

wimbledon overall
12 - 15 +6.95u

Grass Season Overall
24 - 36 -0.65u

[girlscoutcookies]

kovalik -103