[anoun]

ahh Almagro let me down..

[cards2013]

Melzer and Djoko on fire now...damn it

[Dollars2Donuts]

175103230-1	4/17/13 9:51am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 501 Philadelphia 76ers +4½ -105* vs Indiana Pacers
175103230-2	4/17/13 9:51am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 507 Washington Wizards +8½ -105* vs Chicago Bulls
175103230-3	4/17/13 9:51am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 517 New Orleans Hornets/Dallas Mavericks Over 198 -105*
175103230-4	4/17/13 9:51am	$102.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 521 Utah Jazz/Memphis Grizzlies Under 180 -102*
175103230-5	4/17/13 9:51am	$108.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 526 Sacramento Kings +6½ -108* vs Los Angeles Clippers
175103230-6	4/17/13 9:51am	$210.00	$200.00		Pending	4/17/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 525 Los Angeles Clippers/Sacramento Kings Under 207½ -105*

[PROGLR]

not going good

[AlessandroEgg]

Let's win it all back buds

[anoun]

it will be a miracle if Youzhny will win

[cards2013]

push in worst case now

[cards2013]

Clippers/Kings Under POD?

[PROGLR]

If the russian guy wins this..I WILL BE BREAAK EVEN!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Clippers/Kings Under POD?

I am sorry....ALL action is declared. If it is the POD it will be listed as the POD. A

nd please guys....let's keep from so many 3 word responses.....please? It is going to kill the thread....nobody will want to read it with all the junk.

Thanks!

[HoldinMygroin]

Hey D2D keep up the good work, awesome thread. What do you think about Detroit red wings in regulation against a Calgary team that from looks of it doesn't even care anymore. And Detroit need every win they can get because of the playoff position tied with Columbus and Dallas right behind them. I can see that you havnt played this game, was wondering though if it is a No Play for you or any leans? I may be way off here.

[Huckleberry Pig]

what a douche, even tried to copy D2D's name. REPORTED

[Dollars2Donuts]

All of my lines are not up at 5dimes, and that is one of them. I lean Detroit, BUT Calgary is actually playing better right now, despite their recent losses. With no pressure on them here they may come up big. If you take Detroit take them SU in Regulation and do not include OT whatsoever or the .5 in Regulation. If Cgy gets this to OT chances are they will win it in OT or the SO.

BOL, but yes, this is a NO PLAY for me.

[Dollars2Donuts]

POD today (and yes, it's a little juicy, but I LOVE it!):

175105921-1

4/17/13 10:48am

$310.00

$200.00

Pending

4/17/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 42 Home Goals Today -155* vs Away Goals Today

[Dollars2Donuts]

Adding:

175106057-1

4/17/13 10:52am

$290.00

$200.00

Pending

4/17/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 2 Pittsburgh Penguins -145* vs Montreal Canadiens

[mtc44380]

I also like the home game play, haven't posted in a while - but im on that with ya! I also thought the Blazers last night would have played a little better, I was thinking the over was a good play. BOL tonight D2D.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Ok, as there was a lot of chatter earlier today I am going to post all plays here together to make it easier for those that want to tail. Again guys, let's try and contain all of the small chatter back and forth during events, it makes it a tough read and to find any valuable insight. In that case just start a new thread like: Raonic versus Nieminen, etc.

Thanks!!

175106057-1	4/17/13 10:52am	$290.00	$200.00		Pending	4/17/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 2 Pittsburgh Penguins -145* vs Montreal Canadiens
175105921-1	4/17/13 10:48am	$310.00	$200.00		Pending	4/17/13 7:05pm NHL Hockey 42 Home Goals Today -155* vs Away Goals Today
175103230-1	4/17/13 9:51am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 501 Philadelphia 76ers +4½ -105* vs Indiana Pacers
175103230-2	4/17/13 9:51am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 507 Washington Wizards +8½ -105* vs Chicago Bulls
175103230-3	4/17/13 9:51am	$105.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 517 New Orleans Hornets/Dallas Mavericks Over 198 -105*
175103230-4	4/17/13 9:51am	$102.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 521 Utah Jazz/Memphis Grizzlies Under 180 -102*
175103230-5	4/17/13 9:51am	$108.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 526 Sacramento Kings +6½ -108* vs Los Angeles Clippers
175103230-6	4/17/13 9:51am	$210.00	$200.00		Pending	4/17/13 10:35pm Reduced Basketball 525 Los Angeles Clippers/Sacramento Kings Under 207½ -105*
175102701-1	4/17/13 9:36am	$100.00	$105.00		Pending	4/17/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 904 Cincinnati Reds -1 +105* vs Philadelphia Phillies (J Lannan - L must Start M Leake - R must Start)
175102701-2	4/17/13 9:36am	$100.00	$106.00		Pending	4/17/13 8:10pm MLB Baseball 907 San Francisco Giants +106* vs Milwaukee Brewers (R Vogelsong - R must Start K Lohse - R must Start)
175102701-3	4/17/13 9:36am	$188.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 10:10pm MLB Baseball 912 Los Angeles Dodgers -1 -188 vs San Diego Padres (T Ross - R must Start C Kershaw - L must Start)
175102701-4	4/17/13 9:36am	$101.00	$100.00		Pending	4/17/13 8:10pm MLB Baseball 921 Los Angeles Angels -1 -101* vs Minnesota Twins (T Hanson - R must Start V Worley - R must Start)
175102701-5	4/17/13 9:36am	$100.00	$145.00		Pending	4/17/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 927 Arizona Diamondbacks +145* vs New York Yankees (W Miley - L must Start C Sabathia - L must Start)
175102585-1	4/17/13 9:33am	$100.00	$110.00		Pending	4/17/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 1 Montreal Canadiens/Pittsburgh Penguins Over 5½ +110*
175102566-1	4/17/13 9:32am	$100.00	$105.00		Pending	4/17/13 7:05pm Reduced Baseball 901 St Louis Cardinals/Pittsburgh Pirates Over 7½ +105* (S Miller - R must Start A Burnett - R must Start)
Totals:		$2,124.00	$1,871.00

[El Nino]

BOL

[anoun]

good luck on tonight games, tailing you again man. Hope that this night will be better than the last one

[O]

D2D - As always, thanks for what you do. I have a question, why do you play the -1 RL when I'm sure you have the option for -1.5? I ask because I can't get in the -1, only -1.5 and have still been trailing your plays accordingly. I do not believe I have lost a game as a result of the .5 and have gotten much better odds (+130 vs-103). Curious to get your thoughts.

[Coreos]

Hmm, 76ers line has moved down to +3, Jazz O/U down to 178 and Clippers O/U down to 205.5.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Trapped at the Calgary Airport for the next 4 hours....yes, Regina to Calgary to Winnipeg....if that makes any sense to anyone? I should have driven it, lol.

Anyway, I will be around once I have eaten some lunch and get myself wired in. Cheers and GL to everyone tonight!

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Hmm, 76ers line has moved down to +3, Jazz O/U down to 178 and Clippers O/U down to 205.5.

This mother fukker D2D is moving lines!

[whtsox13]

D2D - As always, thanks for what you do. I have a question, why do you play the -1 RL when I'm sure you have the option for -1.5? I ask because I can't get in the -1, only -1.5 and have still been trailing your plays accordingly. I do not believe I have lost a game as a result of the .5 and have gotten much better odds (+130 vs-103). Curious to get your thoughts.

Roll your own -1 RL

This - http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...1rl-wager.html
and This - http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/?page_id=3167

[Dollars2Donuts]

Roll your own -1 RL

This - http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...1rl-wager.html
and This - http://sportsobjective.com/wordpress/?page_id=3167

This = Exactly correct

I have had a TON of people asking me why I don't bet -1.5 in MLB instead of -1 or why I bet -.5 in regulation in the NHL insteasd of just being on the ML or betting it -1.....

Keep in mind something VERY important, and when I say VERY I mean vvveeerrryyy.....all of these lines are adjusted using a statistical model. If you win 30% more by playing -1.5 instead of -1 in MLB you will win EXACTLY 30% less of the time over a statistically significant number of bets.

I had one person mention that they have been playing the -1.5 instead of the -1 and it hasn't ever really affected them, BUT, at the same time it could have affected them every time....THAT comes down to variance. These books know EXACTLY what they are doing and these lines are set not just through the books experience but because over the years statisticians have perfected their model.

I think, more than anything, it is important for YOU to feel comfortable with the line you take. The real deal is that what you NEED is to be on the right side of the games....beyond that variance will take care of you over time....that is ALL that matters.

I know there are a lot of CAPITAL letters in this post, but I just want it to be clear....I don't believe a lot of people understand the stats involved.

Now, let's kick the books azz tonight!


Cheers,

D2D

[Dollars2Donuts]

Adding:

175174834-1

4/17/13 6:45pm

$206.00

$200.00

Pending

4/17/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 507 Washington Wizards/Chicago Bulls Under 186 -103*

[Coreos]

Big night tonight so BOL everyone.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Ok, about to board my next flight. By the time my feet are on the ground we should have a pretty good indication of what kind of a night it is going to be.

GL everyone,

D2D

[Minnesota Niice]

Checkin in... "Happy flight"

[wilson34]

gay

[O]

This = Exactly correct

I have had a TON of people asking me why I don't bet -1.5 in MLB instead of -1 or why I bet -.5 in regulation in the NHL insteasd of just being on the ML or betting it -1.....

Keep in mind something VERY important, and when I say VERY I mean vvveeerrryyy.....all of these lines are adjusted using a statistical model. If you win 30% more by playing -1.5 instead of -1 in MLB you will win EXACTLY 30% less of the time over a statistically significant number of bets.

I had one person mention that they have been playing the -1.5 instead of the -1 and it hasn't ever really affected them, BUT, at the same time it could have affected them every time....THAT comes down to variance. These books know EXACTLY what they are doing and these lines are set not just through the books experience but because over the years statisticians have perfected their model.

I think, more than anything, it is important for YOU to feel comfortable with the line you take. The real deal is that what you NEED is to be on the right side of the games....beyond that variance will take care of you over time....that is ALL that matters.

I know there are a lot of CAPITAL letters in this post, but I just want it to be clear....I don't believe a lot of people understand the stats involved.

Now, let's kick the books azz tonight!


Cheers,

D2D

Thanks D2D. I really appreciate the insight and feedback. I was just curious. Certainly not challenging your methods. You really can't argue with stats. It just hadn't been making sense as of late and is why I asked. Tonight for example, I took the Pens at -1.5 +210. We both won but obviously my pay out was larger. That said, I understand how time if will balance out and even go 30% in the favor of the books. Very interesting.

Thanks again man and keep the run going. Let's get some money tonight.

You are good people D2D

[Sbot420]

I had one person mention that they have been playing the -1.5 instead of the -1 and it hasn't ever really affected them, BUT, at the same time it could have affected them every time....THAT comes down to variance. These books know EXACTLY what they are doing and these lines are set not just through the books experience but because over the years statisticians have perfected their model.


D2D

Do you have any insight on the model that these statisticians use? I'm intrigued by how the odds makers are so efficient. Do you have insight on who crunches these numbers and creates the lines. I've heard Vegas, I've heard NY, and I've heard the Chinese. I'm curious about all that goes in to the other side of sports betting.

[alamo]

Adding:

175174834-1

4/17/13 6:45pm

$206.00

$200.00

Pending

4/17/13 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 507 Washington Wizards/Chicago Bulls Under 186 -103*

I hate Hinrich. He is my kryptonite.

[fitguy67]

live-betting value..Det/Calgary.no-3rd goal...at +300 (0.33 units to snag 1 unit)...a grindem kinda game that if first 10-mins are scoreless, both teams'll get into "don't lose" mode...worth a flier to pick up a unit on the cheap

edit: only value was the warm feeling generated by the unintentional third-of-a-unit "donation" to the bookie

[Dollars2Donuts]

Uh oh...the bullpens cost us tonight. I see Arizona AND San Fran blew it. Haven't looked through everything....will post an update at my hotel.