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Normally I wouldn't use open parlays (it usually saves on commission costs and shortened odds simply to make consecutive plays) but in an attempt to make a money flow parlay from now through the playoffs I started one leaving a few open spots...
A little risk going against Toronto, but if there is an Under, I expect a close game...
For today’s first game I have Hamilton scoring 13 or 14 points to Ottawa’s 13 or 14 points. My forecast does not predict a winner here but the raw numbers do give Ottawa a slight nod of less than a half of a point. Most forecasts have this game very close, with either team taking the moneyline. This line opened early with Ottawa -3 and has since grown to -5.5. In this case, my prediction sides with the underdog on the pointspread.
I can identify pressures on the Hamilton that don’t seem to be reflected in the line movement. Unfortunately, with yesterday’s game giving us a long awaited failure against the moneyline and success against the Total in regards to my prediction and Winnipeg’s performance I am hesitant use my predictions in deciding this game.
I have certain metrics indicating Hamilton will cover this pointspread, but again with Toronto becoming a rather easy bet yesterday, one I chose to counter due to the offered odds, I am once again hesitant.
Most forecasts have a total ranging from the upper 40’s to upper 50’s and can I can see why this line has opened as high as 50. My prediction indicates a much lower game with 26, 27 or 28 points and the line has moved in that direction to about 48.5.
While I can see some sharp pressure on this Under, there should be considerable pressure on the Over that, like the side, isn’t showing up in the line.
I mentioned earlier that my prediction against the spreads and moneylines could breakdown this week and that my prediction against the Totals could do better. This was the case on Friday.
Despite this wise assertion, my metrics indicate that the money is flowing in such a way that taking Hamilton and the Over would be the play. In many respects, and in anticipation of the playoffs this game could be considered a pass but reducing risk to increase reward turns out to be a viable strategy.
In order to reduce risk here and increase reward I have picked up a two pick parley with Hamilton Tiger Cats +5 (-103) over Ottawa Redblacks and Hamilton Tiger Cats versus Ottawa Redblacks OVER 48 (-106).
This parlay has a payout of +283.
Good Luck.
For the second game today I have a predicted score of Calgary’s 24 points to British Columbia’s 17 points. Most forecasts have a similar or closer game and some give BC a small edge to win. Once again my Total prediction is lower than most forecasts as nearly everyone predicts a 50 to 58 point game. With so many forecasts pointing to a closer game this line opened with Calgary -1 and, perhaps in a reflection of my Total number, the Total opened at only 47.5. Neither line has moved as most of the CFL money this week has landed on the first game today, many other players are sitting.
I am choosing to navigate this week, possibility walking into losses before the playoffs.
Both Calgary and BC will play again in the first round of the playoffs; that game is already set. As usual, another pass is warranted as we can gain more information by watching this game. However, I should mentioned that there is a great deal of information to be poured over when putting the playoff puzzle together and the results of this game will represent a small part.
I posted that my predictions against the moneyline and spread were likely to perform poorly this week but the Totals should show improvement. Further metrics indicate this state of the marketplace to still be true this week.
As such I am strongly leaning towards BC to win the game and the Total to go Under the 47.5 points.
I don’t mind betting into this final week as I can see playoff opportunities develop regardless of the results.
I like the price and have begun a position with British Colombia Lions +103 over Calgary Stampeders for the second game today.
Good Luck.
Lulay starting right? What worries me is the Stamps 2nd stringers are still better than the Lions starters.
It's week 19 and this game is meaningless. Neither team going to risk too much to win this game. Could also be a good Under.Originally Posted by CanuckG
I have added UNDER 47.5 (-101) for Calgary Stampeders versus British Colombia Lions.I like the price and have begun a position with British Colombia Lions +103 over Calgary Stampeders for the second game today.
Good Luck.
Good Luck.
I'd like go on record saying that I think both these picks hit!
Stamps should be -13 next week vs BC in the playoffs.
For the final game of the regular season I have Montreal scoring 31 or 33 points to Saskatchewan’s 17 points. Many models have Montreal winning by anywhere from 7 to 10 points with total scores ranging from 40 to 50 points. This line opened with Montreal -9 with a Total of 49 points and both numbers have ticked downward towards 8 and 48.
For the most part these lines do split the money. Predicting a total of 48 or 50 points seems right in line with the 49 and 48 points being offered. For the most part, I have been successful in analyzing the Totals this weekend and am going to pass on the Total line here.
I began this weekend in this thread by laughing to myself on what a pass this final game should be. Coming off of last weekend, that certainly was the feel. Further, I have mentioned that my predictions against the moneylines and spreads this weekend would likely fail while the Totals should do better.
In fact, that’s what seems to have happened. My predictions this week are 1-1 against moneylines, 1-2 against pointspreads, and 2-1 against the Totals. In this final game my predictions are in line with the offered Total and favor Montreal to both win and cover the spread.
Since the beginning of the weekend I have seen evidence to change my tune. I have identified certain bookmaking techniques that indicate that indeed my forecast may prevail in this game.
There is some alignment among forecasts that would suggest the underdog to a contrarian bettor. Further, certain unnamed metrics bring pressure to Saskatchewan; probably part of the reason the line has dropped a point. By the way the money seems to have been placed and the on field results it can be difficult to tell whether the market is preparing for the playoffs or just looking to settle itself for the final game.
In any event, I am going to counter that Saskatchewan pressure and side with what I believe is the book by picking up Montreal Alouettes -7.5 (-105) over Saskatchewan Roughriders.
Interestingly, the first week of this season had three upsets and an underdog covering but not winning. In this give and take world with two different halves to the season, let’s see if the last week of season can produce four straight favorites.
Good Luck.
Let's see, I can get +7.5 for (-101) and -8.5 for (+111).
So are we looking at an 8 point game here?
I know I haven't said much with a hint of hindsight in this thread but, like all games this week, this game should have been a pass.
As I posted before, I was in part betting into this weekend knowing we will have a couple of good opportunities in the playoffs.
In reviewing this thread, many of my losses have come in games I initially declared a pass or in games where I expected my metrics to fail (in a sense fading myself). The recourse for these types of wrong decisions has been the prospect and realization of winning bets down the road.
This is also a sign of a lack of patience, but a lack of patience that isn't quite a killer because of sharp forecasts and decent market analysis.
I've posted this before but understanding when a bet requires patience and choosing to take the risk only helps if you are there for the eventual bet you are being patient for...this was not the case this weekend.
I posted that an upset was brewing from last week and that the pot was being stirred. It continued to brew until the final game. If you've followed along in this thread, it would make sense that the "single best pass of the season" would bring the upset.
I completely missed my own previous reasoning. I'm not making excuses, but this is a teachable moment. Often, no matter how much you study, you will miss some information. Sometimes, with a season's worth of information in front of you and several other sports gearing up, it can be overwhelming.
It's ok to miss a few things here and there, it can be impossible to cover every base, all the time. When you do miss something, and make a bad bet because of it, don't go kicking the dog or smashing glass tables, accept what happened, try to learn, and the move on.
Rest assured there will be more games to come.
I suppose being up so much on the year also led to slightly looser play and parlays in the final week. Come playoffs, the moneyflow will be much more restricted and the way the games represent that money on the field will be even more prominent.
So here's how my model ended up for the year. The final week was really bad to it, which makes sense because the final week (maybe the final two weeks) had lots of changes in motivation, personnel, etc.
Sides Totals W L W L Week 5 3 1 1 3 Week 6 4 0 1 3 Week 7 2 2 2 2 Week 8 1 3 3 1 Week 9 1 3 2 2 Week 10 1 3 3 1 Week 11 2 2 3 1 Week 12 3 1 2 2 Week 13 3 1 2 2 Week 14* 2 2 2 1 Week 15 2 2 2 2 Week 16 2 3 3 2 Week 17 2 2 1 3 Week 18 3 1 3 1 Week 19 2 2 1 3 Week 20** 0 4 1 2 Totals 33 32 32 31 *One total play pushed ** One predicted total was exactly on the actual line
Argos ML
Stamps Lions Under 49.5
Agreed, been away recovering from a neck procedure. No big write-up, I like Toronto moneyline and will take a loss here if need be.
Perhaps more about the game later, but for the thread I have just picked up Toronto Argonauts +115 over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Good Luck.
For the first game my prediction has Hamilton winning with 19 points to Toronto's 18 points.
The line has moved towards my line from Hamilton -3 to about 1.5 or 2. Most forecasts differ from my prediction as they have Hamilton winning by 7 or 8 points.
The Total is difficult to nail down. I am on the low end with 37 points but have seen the same Hamilton by 7 or so points result in totals from 41 to over 53 points.
This is a wide range and while I lean Under on this first game, I will hold on any Total plays until a better picture of the flow of money can be seen.
Edit: I wrote this quickly and a bit out of sorts and didn't put the complete prediction. It makes no difference against the moneyline but the actual predicted score I have is Hamilton with 19 or 20 and to Toronto's 17. Hamilton was still predicted to win, but it wasn't a one point game.
Last edited by KVB; 11-15-15 at 04:38 PM.
For game two today I have a predicted score of Calgary with 27 points beating BC with 13 or 14 points. Most forecasts have Calgary winning by anywhere from 9 to 13 points. Total forecasts seem to range from upper 40’s to the mid 50’s. Once again, my forecast predicts an Under with a much lower line. This Total opened at 49.5 and has pretty much stayed here.
I haven’t been able to put as much into the posts this week about the groups of bettors facing off. I am not surprised to see a close game in the first game and wouldn’t be surprised to see OT here. The later we get a final result, the more it may play into the hands of the books.
I wanted to get my forecast out there but haven’t exactly made a play yet. I would not, under any circumstance, take Calgary today and wouldn’t be phased if they were the winners.
Last Saturday a lot of bettors relied on Hamilton and they failed. This week the Hamilton rebound is a natural bet and it failing would represent an excellent upset. Should that not happen, and should Hamilton take out those bettors looking for the upset as well as those falling for market indicating “bait” there is an extreme likelihood that British Columbia beats Calgary today.
I don’t mind betting into the underdogs today and not seeing those dogs come would most certainly not break my morale. The market is full of bait and the reason being is that they are protecting a playoff surprise.
This week could be a little too soon for that surprise. Or that surprise is BC beating Calgary.
I have picked up British Columbia Lions +8.5 (-102) and +420 over Calgary Stampeders. BC is a much more capable team than this spread and moneyline indicate.
BC played Edmonton to a 3 point game at Edmonton; beat Hamilton, then beat Toronto before playing Calgary last week in a game where BC showed little power because it didn’t matter.
My point is that BC is up for the task today and the market metrics I see indicate this to be a good value, especially when considering the number of games left in the season and the current market environment.
Once again, I understand the repercussions of a Calgary blowout and where that would leave certain metrics that use regression and where that would leave certain bettors. Without that understanding this would be a difficult decision.
It might not be BC tonight, but at those numbers, that’s the way to bet it.
Good Luck
East Final: Ottawa -6.5
West Final: Calgary +3
#cfl
For the first game this today I have a predicted score of Ottawa winning with 31 or 33 points to Hamilton’s 16 or 17. I disagree with other forecasts who have Ottawa winning by anywhere from 2 to about 7 points. In general, with other forecasts, the higher the Ottawa win, the higher the Total predicted, most of which range in the 50’s.
My predictions were all correct against the offered moneylines, spreads, and Totals last week. If the same were to happen this week, then the day will go like this…Ottawa will likely beat Hamilton for a third straight time and then Calgary beats Edmonton to complete the final game.
But with the give and take of these markets, we know how hard that could be to achieve today.
For that second game, I predict Calgary to win with 27 or 28 points to Edmonton’s 17 points. I believe this to be a stronger play with Calgary beating Edmonton.
I have not been up to par as of late health wise and am not posting a play right now. I’d like to write more but there simply isn’t time. I mostly wanted to get my forecasts out there as I may not be able to post much today.
This East final is a banner game for the CFL. Best football game today hands down.
A lot of pressure on Calgary right now for sure and the line trying to show otherwise. My metrics indicate far too much pressure on Calgary and I believe there are concerted efforts to sell Calgary to the bettors.
I have picked up Edmonton Eskimos -150 and -3 (-107) over Calgary Stampeders.
To trade against what I believe to be, for a multitude of reasons, a far too easy upset to take I have also picked up Edmonton Eskimos -157 over Calgary Stampeders.
A one or two point win is not out of the works here. If it is Calgary, the game could kill some tease bettors.
I am also going against my prediction of Calgary winning with 27 or 28 to Edmonton's 17. Those predictions have been correct so far in the playoffs. Let's see what happens here.
Good Luck.
The line is starting to show 3.5 in some places and many houses holding Calgary at +3 paying +110 or above.
I believe these books are collecting Calgary bets and that steam isn't an issue here. This is the playoffs so moneyline may be paramount, but remember the post at the beginning whereby I explained what happens when books win and difference between + and - odds?
If I am on the wrong side of the coin, then the books chose go with that profit. I believe it is one last attempt to sell market readers into the underdog.
Before game time bettors also get a money line adjustment for a sweeter Calgary. Put the two together and you can see the makings of an Edmonton 1, 2, or 3 point game.
I like my position here as far as one spot on -3 and two on the moneyline.
Edit: Sorry I haven't been able to get more into detail about groups fo bettors and where they are and why, still healing.
Last edited by KVB; 11-22-15 at 03:47 PM.
Hopefully there will still be an opportunity for a halftime bet on Edmonton. If Edmonton builds a lead by half, that possibility will deteriorate.
lol...a two point Edmonton lead, 8-6, at the end of the first quarter.
Late half antics led to a 9 point Edmonton lead effectively taking out a halftime bet on Edmonton. At a pick 'em, this halftime line is for the gamblers.
Happy Grey Cup Sunday!
All week it has sounded like Ottawa is just happy to be here. Truth is they barely scraped by Hamilton who ran out a 3rd string QB. I like Edmonton -6.5. Weather is great sunny with next to no wind. Over 50.5 worth a look. Enjoy the game!
For the Grey Cup today I have Edmonton winning with 36 points to Ottawa’s 28. Many forecasts have a closer game with either team winning by 3 or 4 points. My prediction of 64 points is on the high end of the forecasts which, no matter who is predicted on the moneyline, reach about 52 or 53 points.
The line has opened at Edmonton -7.5 and has ticked down slightly. For the most part, I feel this line is a sharp one. I don’t have time to write more but my metrics indicate there will not be an upset today.
I have picked up Edmonton Eskimos -6.5 (-107) over Ottawa Redblacks. From a standpoint of market analysis, like I wrote, I simply don’t see an upset here.
There is most certainly a danger here as my prediction has been correct on the moneyline and spread in each of the playoff games. Ordinarily, this would lend to the upset but there are simply too many factors selling Ottawa.
Good Luck.
I have also countered my 64 point forecast with UNDER 52 (-102) for Edmonton Eskimos versus Ottawa Redblacks.
I believe the other forecasts are in too much agreement here and will side with the slightly downward line movement.
Good Luck.
This worries me a bit, it lends credence to an Ottawa cover and possible late win by Edmonton or late disappointement by Ottawa on the field. Perhaps Ottawa has a chance to win or tie on the final possession and just fall short. These scenarios imply an Ottawa cover or the unforgivable push at 7 points.
I feel -6.5 is a good line here.
Shit, just realized this game starts at 3:00 my time, not 10 am.
I should be able to write more for this game. I was rushing to lay some analysis down before kick off...lol.
Here we go again. About 15 minutes after posting the play books around the world ticked upward. Those at 7 went to 7.5 and 6.5 may be gone around the world.
Ra77er?
This is an error. My forecast was correct until the last playoff game last Sunday. My prediction was Calgary and Edmonton won. I'm not sure if this mitigates the danger I mention above. That line seems to have pressure on the favorite but I am fairly certain there are a number of groups that like the underdog here. It's not quite the chase I thought it was with this error, but I believe there is still significant action on the dog.
This upward movement is making me a little nervous here. This thread is beating the market in this game and that may not be good here. Steam has been created and the Ottawa +7.5 looks even more attractive to the underdog bettors.
My prediction had a raw score of Edmonton winning by 7 but a converted score that gave them the 8 point margin.
I would say the oddsmakers and book makers have done a good job with the line and are certainly drawing action on this game.
It's becoming more of a gamble to a sharp market analyst. For the most part, this thread has beaten the CFL at the closing lines and I don't mind posting closer to game time as more information comes in.
I still like the posted play and the Edmonton moneyline but my write-up may have had a different tune had I had the right gametime.
It is a tricky give and take and the books have put themselves in a good position here.
I am not surprised. I mentioned that things would get sharper and sharper as the season went on and the give and take would get tight. This game should play out in a very interesting manner.
I've also posted how there are two halves of the season. The first 20 games of this season brought 16 underdogs. The last 14 games of the season have brought 11 favorites.
Once again, this was written when I thought the market was about to close. It turns out we may be seeing an uptick near close, not downward pressure.
I believe the winning two pick parlay will be a Favorite with the Under or the Underdog with the OVER, effectively splitting my prediction.
So far on gameday both spread and Totals have moved towards my forecast.
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