[oldscho0led]

Eels now favored -1.5

[therealdealau]

Welcome back to the best capper I know, can't wait to blindly tail and make some cash

[MrXYZ]

The legend returns! Welcome back Sando. Good luck this season.

[swordsandtequila]

Nice call on the Eels. Wish I'd put a little on the alternate line too.

[sando]

Roosters at Cowboys

Roosters team looks SO impressive on paper, however Jake Friend is arguably their most important player and his loss is definitely more important than the Cowboys loss of Tamou who has the polar bear to replace him in the front row. Also the Cows only lost 1 home game last year and this years team looks just as good. Big things are expected from the Cowboys this season and I think they will have the edge in intensity & desire playing at home.

Cowboys ML ($1.73 Sportsbet) 1.5x
*risk 1.5 units to win approx 1.1

[sando]

I think the Panthers ($2.07) will beat the Bulldogs at home but probably wont wager on it.

[ExodusNZ]

It was one of those weeks! Onto Round 2

[MrXYZ]

Tigers should've destroyed the Titans, fukkn pathetic display. Good luck with Round 2.

[sando]

NRL 2015

1-3 -5.02 units

Ok after such a poor start to the season I decided to take round 2 off to have a better look at the games/teams in action.
Was certainly a very disappointing start to the season but obviously no need to panic after only 1 round.
I'm back and ready to do some damage in round 3...

Note - I still use the same books for all NRL/AFL plays - Pinnacle, Luxbet, Sportsbet, Centrebet & Sportingbet (which is now formally known as William Hill). Also for those that don't know, Centrebet, Sportingbet/William Hill & Tom waterhouse are all exactly the same.

Note - Wagers that are 1-12 or 13+ means to win by 1-12 or to win by 13+

Note - All standard ATS or totals plays are assumed to be played at -110/$1.90

Cowboys @ Broncos
1* Under 38.5

Bulldogs @ Sea Eagles
1* Bulldogs -2
1* Bulldogs 1-12 ($3.60 Pinnacle)
It may seem counter intuitive to play both the line and the margin but in this case I think the reward is worth the risk. I struggle to see the doggies winning by more than 12 at Brookvale.

Dragons @ Raiders
2* Raiders -3.5

Sharks @ Storm
1.5* Sharks +10

Tigers @ Rabbitohs
1* Tigers +12.5 (Or if you want better odds play the Rabbitohs 1-12 at $3.10)

Panthers @ Roosters
1.5* Over 37.5 (Centrebet/William Hill)All other books are over 38 or 38.5 by now
1* Roosters 1-12 ($3.20 Pinnacle)

[therealdealau]

Can't wait for this weeks NRL, might need to start discussing AFL Sando what do you reckon? I'm big on the Kangaroos this season...

[hedgejob]

might need to start discussing AFL

West Coast to miss top 8 $1.82

[dRavidC]

good work on the bulldogs game

[therealdealau]

Great calls all round and some incredibly unlucky results. The Tigers one was the worst, late try by Souths. Huge end to the week though with the Roosters 1-12. Keep it up Sando.

[therealdealau]

West Coast to miss top 8 $1.82

Removing my anti West Coast bias, I actually think this is an incredible bet I can name 9 teams better than West Coast

[garygroundwork]

Removing my anti West Coast bias, I actually think this is an incredible bet I can name 9 teams better than West Coast

What's their draw like?

I like Hawks, port, sydney, freo, roos and cats to make it. Adelaide smokey at around 1.90

[yippa82]

Multi of the year storm (NRL) and cats (AFL) to make the top 8 in their respective comps pays just under evens......i just can't see these teams not making the finals.

Any thoughts?

[garygroundwork]

Multi of the year storm (NRL) and cats (AFL) to make the top 8 in their respective comps pays just under evens......i just can't see these teams not making the finals.

Any thoughts?

With 9 games at Simmons u expect the Cats to win at least 12 games for the year

Storm always start season well but drop away during SOO period when they lose the big 3. It's hard to imagine Storm not making the 8 but I don't see them up there with Rabbits, Roosters, Dogs and Penrith

Yeah seems like a good bet

[yippa82]

With 9 games at Simmons u expect the Cats to win at least 12 games for the year

Storm always start season well but drop away during SOO period when they lose the big 3. It's hard to imagine Storm not making the 8 but I don't see them up there with Rabbits, Roosters, Dogs and Penrith

Yeah seems like a good bet

My thoughts exactly really hard to see either not playing at least one game in the finals. Thanks mate

[therealdealau]

Any plays today?

[aussieH]

West coast to miss the 8 is a good play. Mckenzie injured and waters has retired. Their backline will be shaky.

[swordsandtequila]

[aussieH]

I like Gold Coast v Melbourne over tomorrow. Surely Melbourne won't continue to play the same low scoring junk they served up last year.

[hedgejob]

The new holding the ball rule can make higher scores, quite a few free kicks and goals from right in front in R1.

[sando]

Round 3 NRL

3-5 (-1.3 units)

Season 2015

4-8 (-6.32 units)

Ok first of all apologies for my erratic posting. Secondly apologies again to those who have tailed my plays and are now down.
The truth of the matter is I haven't had my heart in this whole posting plays thing for quite some time. That's not to say that I don't put in the work on my plays behind the scenes, although even that has been more of a chore lately. So I was ready to abandon my "comeback" after only a couple of rounds, but then I had a decent round 4 and a strong round 5 in the NRL, as well as starting the AFL season nicely, and I decided to fight on. Especially as I would hate to go out as a loser after a long run of success on this site.

I take NRL very, very seriously so was obviously disappointed with the start to the season I had. Some self reflection has led me to realise that I usually charge into the start of an NRL season with "both guns blazing" when perhaps a more measured approach, and a steady/slow build up is in order?

Ok enough chit chat. Time to get back to work...

[sando]

My first 2 plays are actually the last two games of the round, however I expect both prices to keep shortening so best to get them out now.

Dragons v Bulldogs
2.5* Dragons ML ($1.90 Centrebet/William Hill)

A full strength doggies would literally just roll over the top of the Dragons with their monster forward pack, however the doggies have been decimated by injuries and suspension, meaning the Dragons will hopefully be able to match them up forward, especially with Merrin in close to career best form. Doggies have lost their 2 most potent attacking weapons in Lafai & B-Moz, so the Dragons have them covered through the 3/4 line and in the spine. Dragons are also in better form, having won 3 on the trot. The Dragons have only let in 6 points in their last 5 halves of football! Dragons started as underdogs but should keep shortening, possibly as low as $1.80-$1.75 by kick off. Dragons are a no brainer play this week.

Rabbitohs v Cowboys
1* Cowboys ML ($2.10 Centrebet/William Hill)

Adam Reynolds is the most important player for the bunnies, despite what all the talking heads on channel 9 say with their infatuation with G.I. Reynolds field kicking game is the best in the business and he makes life so much easier for his forward pack (normally its the other way around with most teams). His absence will be quite noticeable IMO. The bunnies simply don't have anyone who can replicate what Reynolds brings. Also the Cows are the definition of a "momentum team" and it appears they are starting to get a roll on after a terrible start to the season. I think this game will start around evens (depending on the Souths team named today).

[pipita17]

This was fantastic thread back in the days. Good to have you back, Sando. I hope you will post some NBA tips too. Cheers.

[sando]

Sharks v Knights
2* Under 36.5

This match should be a grind. Cronulla conceding 21ppg and the Knights are conceding 15ppg. However the Knights are only scoring 17ppg & the Sharks 16ppg. Stats point to the under but more importantly, this is simply a match up where defence will take priority over offence and both teams are likely to play with a "protect the lead" mentality. Showers predicted morning & night strengthens an under play here.

Broncos v Roosters
1* Roosters -1.5 (-2 is ok)

Warriors v Wests Tigers
1* Over 40.5 ($1.99 Pinnacle) (Over 41.5 is fine too)

Day match. Good weather. Two teams that match up well in the attacking department & seem to follow the "attack is the best form of defence" mantra when they play each other (especially in NZ). I played the over in this match last season as well and the two teams piled on a combined 60 points.

Panthers v Sea Eagles
2* Panthers -7.5 (Sportsbet/Centrebet)
This match could get ugly & Panthers 13+ ($2.75 Sportsbet) is worth considering as well...

[sando]

This was fantastic thread back in the days. Good to have you back, Sando. I hope you will post some NBA tips too. Cheers.

Blazers +10.5 looks the goods. Warriors with nothing to play for while Blazers are deep in the log jam of middle seedings in the West & fighting for home court in round 1. Likely the 2nd string boys will get a lot of game time today for the Warriors.

[sando]

AFL 2015

(0-0)

Richmond v Western Bulldogs
1* Richmond 1-39 ($2.15 Sportsbet)

Port Adelaide v Sydney
1* Port 1-39 ($2.30 Sportsbet)

Essendon v Hawthorn
1* Essendon 1st Half +15.5 (Luxbet)

GWS v Melbourne
1.5* Melbourne +16.5 (Luxbet)

Collingwood v Adelaide
1.5* Adelaide -15.5

[sando]

AFL

Geelong v Freo
1.5* Freo 1-39 ($2.20)

[dRavidC]

good luck with the freo play sando

[MrXYZ]

Dragons v Bulldogs
2.5* Dragons ML ($1.90 Centrebet/William Hill)

A full strength doggies would literally just roll over the top of the Dragons with their monster forward pack, however the doggies have been decimated by injuries and suspension, meaning the Dragons will hopefully be able to match them up forward, especially with Merrin in close to career best form. Doggies have lost their 2 most potent attacking weapons in Lafai & B-Moz, so the Dragons have them covered through the 3/4 line and in the spine. Dragons are also in better form, having won 3 on the trot. The Dragons have only let in 6 points in their last 5 halves of football! Dragons started as underdogs but should keep shortening, possibly as low as $1.80-$1.75 by kick off. Dragons are a no brainer play this week.

I'm on it as well. The best play of the round. Canterbury will put up a fight and may keep it close, but it's Dragons all the way. If you've never bet NRL before, this is the one to open your account with.

Good luck gents!

[sando]

Argh Freo beat Geelong by 44. Poor start to the AFL season, however a great NRL round so far. 4 out of 5 with one game to go tonight (Cowboys ML).

good luck with the freo play sando

I'm on it as well. The best play of the round. Canterbury will put up a fight and may keep it close, but it's Dragons all the way. If you've never bet NRL before, this is the one to open your account with.
Good luck gents!

Thanks boys, good to see some quality still hanging around at SBR. (Seems like a ghost town these days...?)

[16johnnymac]

Don't you think they will miss Reynolds kicking.?.

[sando]

Don't you think they will miss Reynolds kicking.?.

I certainly do. That's a big part of why I like the Cowboys.

Rabbitohs v Cowboys
1* Cowboys ML ($2.10 Centrebet/William Hill)

Adam Reynolds is the most important player for the bunnies, despite what all the talking heads on channel 9 say with their infatuation with G.I. Reynolds field kicking game is the best in the business and he makes life so much easier for his forward pack (normally its the other way around with most teams). His absence will be quite noticeable IMO. The bunnies simply don't have anyone who can replicate what Reynolds brings. Also the Cows are the definition of a "momentum team" and it appears they are starting to get a roll on after a terrible start to the season. I think this game will start around evens (depending on the Souths team named today).