[Optional]

I haven't really got a lot right with my pre race expectations this week.

Gone right off my Grosjean top 10 bet.

But here's what i think about the 5D head to heads anyway.


Race Matchups - Canadian Grand Prix - Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve - Montreal, Canada

Sun 6/8 7701 Lewis Hamilton -125
2:00PM 7702 Nico Rosberg +105

I think Lewis will beat Nico over race distance. Still based on what I said early, Lewis is a stud here and Nico's record is below his average.



Sun 6/8 7703 Sebastian Vettel -230
2:00PM 7704 Daniel Ricciardo +190

Vettel should win with his good grid position compared to Dan. But at those odds I'd probably take a stab at Ricciardo or no bet.



Sun 6/8 7705 Daniel Ricciardo -120
2:00PM 7706 Fernando Alonso +100

I don't know. My gut says Ferrari is going to be better in the race than qualifying and Dan is starting on the dirty side of the track so there is a good chance the normally fast starting Alonso will be ahead after the first corner. So I would take Alonso if anything. But so many unkowns maybe best left a no bet.


Sun 6/8 7707 Fernando Alonso +100
2:00PM 7708 Felipe Massa -120

You'd hope Massa could finish ahead of the Ferraris the way the Williams has performed all weekend so far. But the team just seems unable to string together a race without problems. -120 is probably good odds on Massa really.



Sun 6/8 7709 Felipe Massa +100
2:00PM 7710 Valtteri Bottas -120

Bottas starting 1 place ahead but on the dirty side of the track could see Massa ahead into turn 1 but if he can hold him off, and therefore have pit timing choice, I doubt Massa will be able to beat his team mate.



Sun 6/8 7711 Kimi Raikkonen -150
2:00PM 7712 Nico Hulkenberg +130

Love this matchup. Take Hulk all day at +130



Sun 6/8 7713 Jenson Button -125
2:00PM 7714 Nico Huelkenberg +105

Tough to call. I think Hulk should prevail but not feeling strong about it.



Sun 6/8 7715 Kevin Magnussen -105
2:00PM 7716 Sergio Perez -115

Same as above. I think Perez in the Force India should prevail over Magnusen in the McLaren, but not strong about it.



Sun 6/8 7717 Jean Eric Vergne -125
2:00PM 7718 Sergio Perez +105

Again, I think Perez will move forward from his 13th grid position and Vergne will fall back from his 8th starting spot. But I just haven't been reading what has been happening very well so again not strong about it.



Sun 6/8 7719 Romain Grosjean -260
2:00PM 7720 Pastor Maldonado +220

Grosjean should beat his accident prone team mate.



Sun 6/8 7721 Jules Bianchi -190
2:00PM 7722 Max Chilton +165

Bianchi has been getting all the accolades since Monaco. But I wouldn't blame anyone for taking a shot on Chilton at +190



Sun 6/8 7723 Adrian Sutil -210
2:00PM 7724 Esteban Gutierrez +175

Sutil


Sun 6/8 7725 Kamui Kobayashi -235
2:00PM 7726 Marcus Ericsson +195

Kamui



Sun 6/8 7727 Jean Eric Vergne -260
2:00PM 7728 Daniil Kvyat +220

Vergne qualified much better but I would not be surprised to see Torro Rosso split their strategies and run Kyvat on a 2 stopper. Think he is worth a shot at +220

[MatI]

Hard to tell with the Ferrari pace. I was having a look at the long runs during the practice sessions and Ferrari were difficult to gauge. Cant rule FA out though.

I have been eyeing off Hulk as well. I saw the 3.50 as well and very tempted. Force India long run pace was excellent in practice but im worried it will hurt him starting on the harder tyres (softs) as opposed to the top 10 who are starting on super softs. Think they will all be keen to get onto the softs as soon as possible as you can run the whole race on them. Hulk will probably have to make his change late as possible which could hurt him if in second half of race.

I can get Hulk top 10 @ 1.65 - going to open another parlay with this.

[MatI]

I like that Perez over Vergne bet but not sure I trust Perez with my money and Vergne actually driving pretty well this year. Think it could be very close but probably worth being on the Force India in that h2h.

I wouldnt bet against SV this weekend, but that is me being conservative.

[MatI]

I am going to take that Ricciardo h2h over Alonso.

I keep reading that Ferrari are planning on running the race without their latest updates as they are worried about cooling. With race forecast to be hotter than qual im happy to gamble Ferrari will go on conservative side.

[Optional]

I set the alarm to wake up at 3.00am planning to watch F1 followed by delayed telecast of Pocono straight afterward.

I only made it a few laps in before I dropped off alseep again and only woke up for the podium. So not really sure what happened as yet.

Watching Pocono still and trying to make sure I dont read any treads that might tell me the result before it's over. I know I won on it as saw book balance but don't know on who yet.

Nice work on Ricciardo bet. I came out with a profit mostly on the back of the Hulk > Kimii h2h.

[MatI]

Shame you missed it.

What a race!!!

[Optional]

Shame you missed it.

What a race!!!

Can't find a damn torrent of it yet.

Need a replay!

[MatI]

Did you manage to get a torrent of the race?

[Optional]

Did you manage to get a torrent of the race?

Nope, but I started to watch the replay on TV last night about 11.30pm and again fell asleep!

My Dad has needed me to help him in and out of bed a lot lately so I have been forced into more regular sleeping patterns and it's giving me trouble managing to stay up late when I want to! (said the old man)

It's on again tonight at 11.30pm so am going to try again



Hey, have you seen this?

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/soccer-bet...s-aussies.html

Free $50 win bet on socceroos in every match they play. No deposit. Just register. 1x rollover if it wins.

Saw it advertised on TV, so it must be true! ;-)

[Optional]

Finally managed to watch it all.

I think that long safety car delay soon after the start is what sent me dropping back off the first two attempts.

Was a pretty good race. Interesting how the Mercs developed a similar issue at the same time. Also interesting how the Red Bulls were faster than both Williams and Force India.

I wonder if Red Bull will have an advantage at their track next race.

[Optional]

Did you watch the MotoGP Matt?

great race.

[Optional]

Damn it. The live timing site has been shut down


This site was silently shot down by EDIS hosting provider
Providing, but not the best




Practice 1 in Austria underway.

[Optional]

F1 hasn't raced in Austria for 11 years.

Only Alonso, Raikonen, Massa and Button have ever raced on this circuit, a long time ago, and before it has been upgraded.

This is the shortest track they race on so chances are most of the field could be lapped.

So much could have changed since the last 2 races with the cars going back to a more 'regulation' style downforce package. So I didn't make any early bets until I get to see some practice.

They are using the same Soft/Super Soft tyre combination as the last 2 races.

Temperatures are cool today with a possibility of showers. 13c air temp and 20 track. Meaning cars that have trouble warming tyres to operating temperature will be handicapped.

Red Bull own the track. Not sure if that means they have any advantage on it or not. But it is their home race.




Rosberg's Mercedes has had early 'electrical' issues and he is back in garage with the car being disassembled.

Maybe a recurrence of the problems that took both Mercs out in Montreal?

[Optional]

Well glad I waited to bet.

That session was interesting.

Track is much tougher to get around than it looks.

I thought the high speed corners might suit Red Bull well enough to counter some of the Merc power on the straights, but all 8 Merc powered cars finished top 9 in lap times (not that that means 'too much' in P1) with only Alonso challenging them.

Vettel sounds and looks very unhappy with the car here and Torro Rosso even bested the Red Bulls for fastest Renault in P1.

Merc are changing Rosbergs ERS cooling pump and it doesn't sound like that will be a reliability issue ongoing.

Weird how much faster Alonso was than Raikkonen, although they could have been on different plans I guess.

Ricciardo looking good for a head to head bet over Vettel, so far...


Practice 2 in a bit over 2 hours.

[Optional]

Yay... our Russian friend has live timing back up again!

http://f1.tfeed.net/?lang=eng#

Just in time for P3

(Fukk U FOM)

[MatI]

hey mate been travelling at the moment, been hard to post. Back home for a week and then heading off to europe for a holiday.

hope your winning, still caught most of the f1, daniel doing great

[Optional]

Great to hear from you Matt.

Yeah Danny is rocking it like he's the 4 time WC and Vettel the rookie.


Have a great holiday.


Hey, I hit Perez for fastest lap at 50/1 last week. 2 weeks after hitting Kimi at 40/1 for it. Never diss me for playing fast lap again. ;-))

[Optional]

Grand Prix of Houston Race #2

Scott Dixon +775 2u
Tony Kanaan +3800 .6u
Ryan Briscoe +4400 .4u

Will Power +385 1u to cover myself and a small win.

[Optional]

An interesting development for this weekends race happened today.

A complicated suspension system that most of the teams have been using and developing for the last few years has been ruled illegal and teams will have to remove it at short notice for this race.

Its called "FRIC" or Front Rear Inter Connected suspension. It uses hydraulics (as opposed to computer control) to adjust the stiffness on each corner to harden the front under braking or the rear under acceleration or one side when cornering.

Basically it was an invention to get around a new rule a few years back that banned "Active Suspension" which was computer controlled and did a similar thing.



The important bit... McLaren and Ferrari are very happy with this development as their versions of FRIC are supposed to be much less efficient than the Mercedes version. So they in particular will be advantaged. RBR system is apparently very good too as they argued to keep it for this year.

Add to that, that Hockenheim is a heavy brake usage track and temperatures are expected to be in the high 80s all weekend and this sudden change could affect some teams in ways we don't expect.

I think it opens up the chance to snag a few doggies if we read the situation right after Friday practice.


I know I rattle on about historical track suitability to each team a lot. Which might be a bit surprising considering how much the rules/cars changed this year.... but there has been a strong correlation still on most tracks.

As we only use this track for each 2nd German GP since 2006 historical data is less important... but... Ferrari have owned this track for the last 15 years. The Mercs have struggled at both visits since their F1 return. Lotus and Sauber usually look good here.

Lotus are worth watching as not only has their car design worked well here in the past, this race is the first time that they will have the "new version" of the Renault engine (RBR have had it already for a couple of races) which is estimated to give them an extra 60 HP and a lot more driveabilty.

Torro Rosso has been one of the most improved teams since race 1 this season and it appears they are pumping money in right now on a serious push for better results, rumoured to be because Red Bull wants to sell off their junior team soon. Close watch on whee they sit after the two Friday practice sessions.

From what I have read Williams are also concerned about the effect removing FRIC is going to have. I am also very interested to see how the Force India looks on Friday. Both those teams are on my potential to fade list.


Favorites for this race in order are Mercedes, Williams, Red Bull, Ferrari and then between Force India and McLaren. I think Williams and Force India are probably too high in the order there.




Bets

Going to take three big longshot bets early. Again like last week I am not predicting they win, just that the odds on these three will drop like rocks if Friday plays out as I am 'hoping/predicting' early.

Alonso is going for his third win in a row of this race, coupled with the advantage he should gain from FRIC removal and Ferrari having targeted this race as when they should have seen a marked improvement after they changed their team principal a couple of months back.

Vettel for pole. He dominated Webber at this track and has started on Pole and 2nd spot last 2 visits. It will take Mercedes suffering from the FRIC removal more than Red Bull for him to take pole this year, which is a decent possibility, but even without that issue there is no way Hamilton should be 50 times lower odds than the world champ on this track.

Maldonado for top 6. I know he has only finished on the lead lap once this year and Lotus have really been crappy. But I confidently expect the Lotus car to work much much better than it did at Silverstone or Austria and Maldonado has shown good form here in both F1 and GP2. If you want to make a safer play on him +330 for a top 10 is superb value too. But I am just playing a half unit to catch the odds and am being greedy looking at that 100/1 for a top 6.



Formula 1 Motor Racing German Grand Prix : Fernando Alonso +5000 .5u

Formula 1 Motor Racing German Grand Prix - Pole Position Winner : Sebastian Vettel +3300 1u

Formula 1 Motor Racing German Grand Prix - Top 6 Finish : Pastor Maldonado +10000 .5u

[Optional]

Half an hour into first practice and I am liking what we are seeing so far.

Most of the cars look visibly worse handling and just about everyone has gone off track.

They are all still testing how to setup without FRIC but Merc do seem more affected than McLaren and Ferrari as strongly suspected, but Red Bull also seem to be coping better with the change initially.

Still like the Alonso and Vettel bets... Lotus have not come out of the box looking very good, so the Maldonado bet not looking promising (but its still only 30 mins in)

Torro Rosso guys look to be really fighting their car without FRIC. Unless they get on top of the change they might be a good fade.

Speaking of fades. Nothing to suggest I was wrong about Williams and Force India under performing the odds they opened at so far.

One nice confirmation is also Sauber. I mentioned this is a traditionally strong circuit for their chassis. And it would be easy to assume a smaller team like them would have a less sophisticated FRIC and therefore less affected by removal... and Sutil came out with the 7th best time out fo the first round of fast laps.

Anyway... loving it so far. Can smell bookie blood in the water due to this mix up

[MatI]

Hey opti. I'm still travelling through Europe, haven't seen a race of any kind, I'm having withdrawals! In Berlin right now but have decided to make a dash to budapest for the race but won't arrive there until Saturday. Will probably just attend for race day.

How are you? You made any bets for the weekend?

[Optional]

Hey opti. I'm still travelling through Europe, haven't seen a race of any kind, I'm having withdrawals! In Berlin right now but have decided to make a dash to budapest for the race but won't arrive there until Saturday. Will probably just attend for race day.

How are you? You made any bets for the weekend?

I'm good. But no bets so far this weekend. Actually I did have a small tilt on red bull to top P1 just in case Hungary hurt Merc more from FRIC changes than Hockenheim did. (no luck)


That's awesome that you can just dash to Hungary for the weekend! Have a great time. Wish I was there!

[MatI]

Yeah it's been awesome. We got in Saturday morning by train but since we are only here until Tuesday morning the missus wasn't too keen on going to the track Saturday so we did sightseeing and checked out the city. I haven't been able to follow the racing very closely so just took a bunch of homer bets!!

Ricciardo to win
Ricciardo over Bottas
ricciardo to win (without Merc)
Safety Car - Yes

[Optional]

Yeah it's been awesome. We got in Saturday morning by train but since we are only here until Tuesday morning the missus wasn't too keen on going to the track Saturday so we did sightseeing and checked out the city. I haven't been able to follow the racing very closely so just took a bunch of homer bets!!

Ricciardo to win
Ricciardo over Bottas
ricciardo to win (without Merc)
Safety Car - Yes

Great to sms chat during race today Matt. What an awesome race!

Nice to see your Homer bets came through 100% too!

I snagged Alonso for podium $4.80 and Safety car Yes -130

Not many bets for me this week.

Have fun the rest of your trip.

[MatI]

Hey Opti, yeah that was an awesome day, can still hardly believe the way it all panned out.

Im finally home now, totally wrecked but no way im missing Watkins Glen tonight. Hopefully we can celebrate another Aussie win in a few hours!

I've taken Marcos for race win and Marcos for Top 5 finish. Not sure about any of the h2h's.

[Optional]

Hey Matt

I am heavy on Marcos too

Have him under 5½ too.

Like Piquet > Said a lot. Have a bunch of heaqd to head combos in small parlays actually.

Can hardly wait!


had a good size win on him yesteray btw

[MatI]

Nice first stint there, good to see Marcos pull such a strong gap during the stops.

[Optional]

I like what I am seeing so far too.

BradK says he has lost a brake line and Kyle B out of it as well.

Go #9 Go

[MatI]

With these restarts and different strategies anything is possible now. Hopefully he can come through here.

Huge hit there, especially for McD.

[Optional]

Yeah that was an ugly one.

With Newman in it too could spell trouble for The Glen staying on the circuit.


Fingers and toes crossed here for Marcos. He is in the cat bird seat so far!

[Optional]

I need Ragan> Gilliland and Truex > Biffle most after an Ambrose win btw

[MatI]

Good luck on those, ill be cheering them on!

This red is taking ages hopefully its not too much longer. Hope they find a way to keep it as is and keep it on the schedule. Love this track but that section has been trouble for awhile now.

[Optional]

Yeah... always seems to be drama when marcos might win.

I'm yawning my head off. Need it to resatrt soon!

[MatI]

ok finally drivers back in their cars.

Wake up Opti! ...Go go go Marcos!

[Optional]

A bit worried about so many cars getting out in front of him.

Fingers crossed!