Originally Posted by
str
No, it is not apples to apples at all.
Because I did not use "figures" in reading the form or handicapping, I hope I answer this well enough to help you.
First of all, I did not handicap races for betting purposes much while training horses. And after the fact, when I did and do, I take into consideration the exact track I am looking at.
Understanding that exact track and what 24 or 48 splits or 22 or 46 splits really mean, and at what distances they occur, allowed me to have a good handle on how the race would set up. And of course, that was just the beginning.
When you have horses coming together from multiple tracks, with different run ups( amount of feet from the gate before the timer actually starts, a horse that ran 23 flat going 6F. at Pimlico is going to actually be faster than a horse that ran 22 2/5ths at Monmouth. This is due to the gross difference in run up length.
If you are trying to handicap Gulfstream where these different venues cross paths often, it makes it even harder unless you know all the run ups. Making things harder still is the outrageous discrepancies at Gulfstream with their own run ups that seem to change drastically from race to race at the same distance and even on the same day. IF, you are trying to handicap Gulfstream turf, between the run ups changing and the differing venues of previous raced tracks that the horses have, it is a nightmare for a new handicapper as well as many a seasoned one. Really be careful at Gulfstream. What you read does not have enough explanation to it to be able to fairly differentiate the numbers and I have no idea if any figures are accurately factoring this in or not.
I know that was not the exact question but I think you needed to know this if you don't.
As to the exact question:
Because I was primarily focused on one track the vast majority of time, I knew an awful lot about THAT track. So, it was not to difficult to understand dirt vs. turf pace and speed. Having said that, too me, it was ALL about who did what and how easily did they do it. By that I mean, how easy or hard was it to be where they were in their previous race or races. A quick glance at a rerun was always available for me to assist if I was not sure. That was even before reruns were made to have easy access because I would record each rerun show at 4am back in the day and had my own rerun library at the track in my office. It made doing what you are asking fairly easy.
So if you can watch reruns of these horses and determine who is actually fastest, there it is. But that is a ton of work when dealing with multiple tracks .
Over time you will learn which tracks are easier or harder to cut early fractions and which tracks seem to have better quality horses at the same claiming price or same allowance condition. And while those can change over a few years, they usually don't change overnight and that helps with understanding who is actually better or not.
Because you are just learning and betting is secondary to gaining knowledge at this point for you, I would try and come up with an answer but not bet , and watch to see what actually happens and try and let the results help you going forward. However, as I said, with the debacle that IS Gulfstream distance races currently, I would be careful with any results you see there.
Sorry for the not so desirable answer but it's best for you to be aware of a track with flawed timing due to different and unreported run up distances now, rather than to lose money now or down the road because of a theory developed at a place like Gulfstream that favors the sharpest of players over the novice or casual players. This type of behavior is a disgrace and they should be ashamed of themselves.
Best of luck but please be careful with Gulfstream if indeed this is the track in question or if you watch any races there.