[brucesmall]

South Carolina (-7) vs. Vanderbilt

Ohhh boy what a tricky line to open up for these two teams, I would have pictured this more around the 12.5 to 14 point range, but that is not the line so this one stood out to me.... That's the explanation..........


Just kidding, this is a very well balanced Gamecock team, finally headed by a decent QB in Connor Shaw, he and a healthy Lattimore will give this Vandy D some problems, but what Vanderbilt will lack in is scoring, the QB that returns had a very less than stellar year and with really no explosive offensive players, they will have a hard time scoring the ball. I see them turning the ball over as well, Gamecocks not only cover the spread, but I also think this one goes below 47 points.

Gamecocks are 13-7 ats in the last 20 games as a favorite of 8 or less points, while Vandy is 10-10 as a underdog of 8 points or fewer, but in those 20 games for Vandy, 14 of them went under. I see a great spot and an almost identical score of last years 21 to 3 victory.

So the plays are Gamecocks -7 and Under 47




NOW this game has intrigued me for quite awhile and from an outside perspective without really delving in to take a look I would love to take Boise State +7, but after looking into this game, it paints a completely different picture.

Lets start with Boise State, they return 5 starters, 3 of which are on the O-line and they have an experienced running back, however Southwick will be at the helm, not Moore. On defense they return 2 STARTERS this means a very weak front 7 for this team. To make things worse many of the assistant coaches and both coordinators are new.... Looks like trouble for Boise.

Now Michigan State returns 5 offensive starters and 4 of those are on the O-line, with an experienced offensive line and Le'veon Bell running the ball for the Spartans, I see a lot of problems with stopping them. On defense they return 8 starters, with Gholston and Rush leading the defensive line.


I think that Michigan State will wear down this young defense and you'll see the offense of Boise struggle with all new skill position players. Michigan State's defense is also pretty stout.

Michigan State -7






These two games and other's I am keeping an eye on are Ohio State -22.5 and Bama -12.5


Otherwise, I'd like to hear some good discussion and feedback on the writeups and picks please

[nvrlose37]

I myself was wondering how in the world SC could only be 7 pt faves on Vandy. Then I put together that a road game against a pretty good Vandy squad who returns a lot of offensive weapons may not be as easy as once thought. And looking from Vandy's games last year, after the blowout against Bama, they were either winners or losers by 7 or less. So they keep games close and could beat that spread. I'm still going SC, but it's definitely not my top pick of the week.

Go BYU -13.5 or LT +7. Those look a lot more safe.

[ConferenceChalk]

Thanks for the info on SC-Vandy. I didn't watch much Vandy last season but they were a pretty solid bet (9-4 ATS) which tells me Franklin knows what he's doing. They return a lot of players I believe and you've got to think those players have had one thing on their mind all offseason, and that's this game. At home, I have to feel you're going to get 110% effort from them. Not sure if they have the horses to beat a really good SC team but I think this one will end up no more than a 10 point victory, not enough comfort or cushion for me.

I'm 500% with you on MSU -7, in fact it's my favorite play of week 1. The intangibles heavily favor MSU - betting home teams at night is one of my cornerstones, and this being a national game you're going to see the Spartans simply juiced. Boise was fantastic a year ago, but this is Joe Southwick's first game as a starter and in a hostile environment they're going to really miss the calming influence of Kellen Moore. Not to mention bruce's point - with so much turnover this isn't the same BSU team. POUND MSU HERE!

I also agree with you Ohio State -22.5. I'm shocked it's less than 28 frankly, but maybe that's because they're coming off a subpar year. Grab the value.

Bama-Michigan is probably a no-play for me, I can't get a great feel for it. I love what Brady Hoke has done at Michigan. I think Bama will be a step below what they were in 2011 and this line doesn't reflect that. The defense lost a lot, and usually I don't put a ton of stock when a program like this loses a RB but Trent Richardson was special. All that said...betting against the SEC out of conference will take you out of business, I just can't do it with a straight face.

BYU -13.5 also looks interesting, but though I don't think it's likely, Leach's air attack could be firing efficiently week 1, and might keep it somewhat close. But I think BYU's going to be an excellent play this year (more on that opinion here) and I'd feel safe with the 'Cougs less than 2 TDs.

Any inside information on LT +7? Louisiana Tech was the country's best bet last season (11-2 ATS) and A&M is rebuilding. I'm thinking of a money line play here but betting underdogs is not my strength.

[xyzky]

I'll take Wash St +14 as soon as it gets there.

[nvrlose37]

Wash St is scary with Leach now there but their QB from last year graduated. Also their D isn't the best, it gets beat up by Pac-12 schools. BYU knows their QB this year is Riley Nelson and played beautifully at the end of last year. Being in Provo and Leach's first game, I'm pretty sure BYU can get this by 17 in a 45-28 or something.

LT is great to pick, gutsy to do an ML as they are not truly home for this game, they are about 80 miles away from campus. They return a lot of talent which won six games down the stretch and also took TCU to the brink in the bowl game. It sets up well for them against that rebuilding A&M, to be honest I haven't seen the new QB but I'm gonna go out on a limb and say he isn't Tannehill's talent.

[Louisvillekid1]

I like Mich St play a lot, SC/Vandy games scares me already and I'll most likely be staying away from that one...

[bktrembath]

I like that Boise play. I think the public is going to stick with them for a while not matter how they play ATS.

[nutinicnthndl]

very solid, i already locked in south carolina as soon as i could. Carolina is shooting for big things this season including a national title. im all over SC as well as Bama, oregon, ohio st as well. urban meyer - enough said. have a great feeling about motere dame as well. solid picks ma man good luck

[brucesmall]

I think that from the look of last season's Vandy offense, I think they will struggle to get it going... In all honesty S.C. would have to play really lame to not cover this spread.

[tobydicesare]

With regards to SC playing Vandy, it's an absolutely amazing seeing how this game gets overhyped by the media b/c of its national exposure being on TV (ESPN I think this time--correct me if I am wrong). When you have done your research and can clearly see that one team, and in this case, South Carolina, has the advantages to what should be a relatively easy victory, you see the media explode, saying Vandy this, Vandy that, sooner you know it, Vandy becomes morphed into Alabama and they are playing in the National Championship Game with everything on the line.....wait take me back to reality....watch the youtube fall camp previews for Vandy, read the Football magazines, look at the stats, etc...and it will come back to being advantage South Carolina....nothing spectacular...just a nice easy flowing victory.

You just have to love these hyped up games as a handicapper b/c you know you will make money....and that almost makes you dance in the privacy of your own basement (with no one looking).

Thats all for now.

[brucesmall]

I like your thoughts, but basic research would lend you to think this line was off lol

[brucesmall]

Bump

[ConferenceChalk]

With regards to SC playing Vandy, it's an absolutely amazing seeing how this game gets overhyped by the media b/c of its national exposure being on TV (ESPN I think this time--correct me if I am wrong). When you have done your research and can clearly see that one team, and in this case, South Carolina, has the advantages to what should be a relatively easy victory, you see the media explode, saying Vandy this, Vandy that, sooner you know it, Vandy becomes morphed into Alabama and they are playing in the National Championship Game with everything on the line.....wait take me back to reality....watch the youtube fall camp previews for Vandy, read the Football magazines, look at the stats, etc...and it will come back to being advantage South Carolina....nothing spectacular...just a nice easy flowing victory.

You just have to love these hyped up games as a handicapper b/c you know you will make money....and that almost makes you dance in the privacy of your own basement (with no one looking).

Thats all for now.

Here's all I know - SC has done nothing under Spurrier to prove they are a lock on the road against a decent team, inspite of the definite talent gap. Tread carefully, SC backers...

[brucesmall]

I know that Vandy is returning an experienced team, but the talent and the play of those players are not good. Maybe they surprise me, but South Carolina has a lot to play for and is too good to barely win this game.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Lets start with Boise State, they return 5 starters, 3 of which are on the O-line and they have an experienced running back, however Southwick will be at the helm, not Moore. On defense they return 2 STARTERS this means a very weak front 7 for this team. To make things worse many of the assistant coaches and both coordinators are new.... Looks like trouble for Boise.

Now Michigan State returns 5 offensive starters and 4 of those are on the O-line, with an experienced offensive line and Le'veon Bell running the ball for the Spartans, I see a lot of problems with stopping them. On defense they return 8 starters, with Gholston and Rush leading the defensive line.


I think that Michigan State will wear down this young defense and you'll see the offense of Boise struggle with all new skill position players. Michigan State's defense is also pretty stout.

Both coordinator's are new? Did Pete Kwiatkowski go into a fugue state and take off into the mountains?

Koetter, Harsin, Pease, Prince, et al: The constant factor that readies the collective talent (or lack thereof) of BSU is Chris Petersen.

This is his offense. And his team.

He's had far less to work with before with Jared Zabransky and Gibran Hamdan. In my opinion, Joe Southwick will perform as to what Coach Pete expects with Miller, Kirby, Ware, Linehan, and the Burroughs to throw to.

If not for injuries, D.J. Harper may have relegated Doug Martin to a wholly secondary role.

Jack Fields redshirt will likely be burned - and he'll only be the fourth running back at best.



I see where you're getting at right - somewhat - but this program is an ever-improving template that's rooted in preparation; not in the damage control of graduation.



I wish you good fortune, but I'm going to err on the side of caution, taking Boise straight-up before it drops below [+245].

[brucesmall]

Both coordinator's are new? Did Pete Kwiatkowski go into a fugue state and take off into the mountains?

Koetter, Harsin, Pease, Prince, et al: The constant factor that readies the collective talent (or lack thereof) of BSU is Chris Petersen.

This is his offense. And his team.

He's had far less to work with before with Jared Zabransky and Gibran Hamdan. In my opinion, Joe Southwick will perform as to what Coach Pete expects with Miller, Kirby, Ware, Linehan, and the Burroughs to throw to.

If not for injuries, D.J. Harper may have relegated Doug Martin to a wholly secondary role.

Jack Fields redshirt will likely be burned - and he'll only be the fourth running back at best.



I see where you're getting at right - somewhat - but this program is an ever-improving template that's rooted in preparation; not in the damage control of graduation.



I wish you good fortune, but I'm going to err on the side of caution, taking Boise straight-up before it drops below [+245].

Well I know that They prepare like no other, but this time I think the inexperience will be too much.

[Mac4Lyfe]

Very much agreed... As long as petersen is coaching, my money goes with him. The guy just out coaches most coaches and have his players out play most others. He get's more out of 2 and 3 star guys than teams with 5 stars.

Both coordinator's are new? Did Pete Kwiatkowski go into a fugue state and take off into the mountains?

Koetter, Harsin, Pease, Prince, et al: The constant factor that readies the collective talent (or lack thereof) of BSU is Chris Petersen.

This is his offense. And his team.

He's had far less to work with before with Jared Zabransky and Gibran Hamdan. In my opinion, Joe Southwick will perform as to what Coach Pete expects with Miller, Kirby, Ware, Linehan, and the Burroughs to throw to.

If not for injuries, D.J. Harper may have relegated Doug Martin to a wholly secondary role.

Jack Fields redshirt will likely be burned - and he'll only be the fourth running back at best.



I see where you're getting at right - somewhat - but this program is an ever-improving template that's rooted in preparation; not in the damage control of graduation.



I wish you good fortune, but I'm going to err on the side of caution, taking Boise straight-up before it drops below [+245].

[schism79]

I do think SC will cover, but the Under is definitely the safer play. Vandy won't score more than 10 against the beastly SC defense and SC will be running the ball a lot, not asking the new QB to do too much!

[agharah1]

I just don't see how you can go wrong taking MSU and South Carolina. Both have legit defenses and running games. Their QBs aren't great but neither team will need their QB to win the game. The only reason the line is low is because these games are early in the season and will probably be low scoring.

[CharlestonCock]

I do think SC will cover, but the Under is definitely the safer play. Vandy won't score more than 10 against the beastly SC defense and SC will be running the ball a lot, not asking the new QB to do too much!

Where do you guys get your information?? Connor Shaw is not a new QB. He started 8 games last year as Stephen Garcia was dismissed from the team after the Auburn game. His record in those 8 games, 7-1. Even had a nice article about him yesterday on ESPN http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/po...ecs-sleeper-qb

With that said, it does look like Tropical Storm Isaac, potential hurricane at landfall, will hit the Gulf Coast early Wednesday morning which could in fact cause a lot of rainfall over the Tennessee area Thursday to Thursday night.

[Trigger7672]

Play the Under in South Carolina/Vandy. It just feels like one of those early season CFB games where the final score ends up being 7-3 or 10-0.

[brucesmall]

Where do you guys get your information?? Connor Shaw is not a new QB. He started 8 games last year as Stephen Garcia was dismissed from the team after the Auburn game. His record in those 8 games, 7-1. Even had a nice article about him yesterday on ESPN http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/po...ecs-sleeper-qb

With that said, it does look like Tropical Storm Isaac, potential hurricane at landfall, will hit the Gulf Coast early Wednesday morning which could in fact cause a lot of rainfall over the Tennessee area Thursday to Thursday night.

I knew he was returning from last year, this is a sleeper team in the SEC, only lost two games last year, and now with more experience and a really talented defense, the only limit on this team is themselves.

[CharlestonCock]

Agree 100% bruce, we have some holes to fill at CB and WR. Some young guys are going to have to step up. Senior CB Akeem Auguste may miss most of the season and is rumored to be applying for Med Redshirt for a 6th year of eligibility with a bad groin injury. We return some good WR's in Ace Sanders and Bruce Ellington and a talented Fr Shaq Roland is going to have to step up.

The worst part about it is the schedule, we have Georgia at home then go on the road for 2 weeks in a row against LSU and Florida. We also have to play Arkansas out of the West.

We could beat Georgia and everyone else in the East and still not go to the SEC CG if we drop those two West games. That would be two years in a row.

[brucesmall]

Personally, i think your biggest match ups this year will be LSU and Florida, I think with all the changing in Arkansas, plus they play less than stellar when they play great defenses, I think you guys have an outside shot at getting your first SEC championship!

[Counterfeit Cash]

Play the Under in South Carolina/Vandy. It just feels like one of those early season CFB games where the final score ends up being 7-3 or 10-0.

[Mac4Lyfe]

USC is a top 10 team. They're not going to sleep up on anyone... lol

I knew he was returning from last year, this is a sleeper team in the SEC, only lost two games last year, and now with more experience and a really talented defense, the only limit on this team is themselves.

[Bigbill365]

ur taking state after they lost there best player

[brucesmall]

USC is a top 10 team. They're not going to sleep up on anyone... lol

Will, not to many people expect a national title run, but they are more than capable of surprising the world lol

[Pew Pew]

It's been awhile... can anyone estimate what -7 will translate for the ML? Around -200 to -300 area???

[brucesmall]

It'll be more around -300 to -350 ish I think good sir

[CharlestonCock]

SC is -275 on the ML at 5Dimes

It's been awhile... can anyone estimate what -7 will translate for the ML? Around -200 to -300 area???

[brucesmall]

I'd just throw down on the -7, I am looking forward to thursday and friday night for sure!!

[Hookem77]

I liked WSU +14 initially but I'm leaning more towards the over as I can see Riley Nelson putting up at least 40 points on a very bad defense at home.

[venture]

Public pounding SC and MS and the SC line has dropped to 6.5 on all books and MS has dropped to 6.5 on a couple books. Betting agienst RLM is suicide.

[Hookem77]

but does Vandy have the offensive weapons (mainly someone for Rogers to throw to) to hang with them?