[arpeggiomeister]

Went into the break with losses across the board. We are on the
second tier of the underdog and over under chases. The
semi-arbitrage game that was rained out left me very bitter. I
reloaded the $254 that I lost on BAL bringing my account back to $500
and change. I am playing very dangerously. I am hanging it all on
the line hoping that I can hit 5 in a row.






The main focus has been on the semi-arbitrage lately because of
the amazing streaks it has had but the primary strategies being
tested are the over/under and underdog chase. The over/under holds
truest to my theory as an over under bet is an arbitrary number
completely concocted from public opinion. It has no bearing on the
outcome of the game. The teams are playing to win, they do not care
by how much. The underdog chase ties in with the theory but the
results are based on wins and losses. It is conceivable that an
underdog can lose 15 game in a row straight up and thus is not as
purely based on public opinion. The main goal is to hit 40% ROI
based on a $3,000 bank roll using a grand martingale with $10 units.
It would take 100 bets to achieve this. The underdog chase will be
the first to cross that line. Today's bet is the 84^th. I
have 16 left to hit my target. Of course if bet 100 does not cover I
must chase until I either cover or bust. The over/under chase is on
its 76^th bet today. Judging by the results to date both
of these chases should reach the 40% ROI target I set.





My success or failure in this experiment hinges on the underdog
and over/under chases. The semi-arbitrage is a fun distraction but
whenever I have come across something that is hitting huge returns it
ends up burning me. The primary goal was to create a system that can
produce 100% ROI a year consistently. If the two aforementioned
chases hit their targets then I believe I have found that, as my NFL
and NBA systems are consistent at 20% and 22% respectively. If you
compound from one season to the next that comes out to 100% ROI.
100% a year is enough to make you very rich in the long run. Chase
systems are very high risk but are tailor made for the bubble
phenomenon I see occurring in the odds and point spreads.





Today's Plays:





Underdog Chase

ARI -130

$37.82

O/U Chase

ATL U/7 -105

$33.60

Semi-Arbitrage

COL +135	$258.00
PIT -1.5 +150	$242.52 ($105.78)

[BarstoolProphet]

Instead of starting a new thread. I hope you do not mind me posting my little system chase here. It is quite simple. 2 game chase and losses spread out over the next 6 games(chases). It is a combination of many things. The money management, I owe to Keel. Goal is to hit 12 units by Aug 15th with a max bankroll of 60 units. This would give you a 20% ROI. Not bad for only 4 weeks. I have back tested for 4.5 years , with the lowest winning season of 15% ROI, the best season was 89% ROI with an Avg. of about 50%.

I developed this to make it manageable for most bettors. I would like to share this, as I would like to work with you on NFL. I also have a really good half time NBA system. But I want to adopt your thinking and try and get a return on investment of 100% of the course of the NFL, NBA, MLB seasons.

Here we go:

PIT Pirates $155 to win $100

DET Tigers $155 to win $100

ATL Braves $155 to win $100

OAK A's $155 to win $100


I hope you do not mind. If so I will create another thread.

[arpeggiomeister]

Semi-Arbitrage and underdog cover.






We have a new underdog on the list. The Rangers are on the bottom
now. I can not use them today because the money line is -160 in
their favor. That is too expensive for an underdog. I went up to
the next one on the list which is the Astros.





We are on tier 3 with the over/under. I took CLE but I am
searching for a team to score over 10. If they fail to cover the
under today I will wait until a team scores over 10 and finish the
chase with that team.





Underdog Chase

HOU -102

$10.20

O/U Chase

CLE U/8.5 -110 gm 1

$83.16

Semi-Arbitrage

COL +145	$299.95
PIT -1.5 +140	$306.20 ($128.73)

[arpeggiomeister]

Instead of starting a new thread. I hope you do not mind me posting my little system chase here. It is quite simple. 2 game chase and losses spread out over the next 6 games(chases). It is a combination of many things. The money management, I owe to Keel. Goal is to hit 12 units by Aug 15th with a max bankroll of 60 units. This would give you a 20% ROI. Not bad for only 4 weeks. I have back tested for 4.5 years , with the lowest winning season of 15% ROI, the best season was 89% ROI with an Avg. of about 50%.

I developed this to make it manageable for most bettors. I would like to share this, as I would like to work with you on NFL. I also have a really good half time NBA system. But I want to adopt your thinking and try and get a return on investment of 100% of the course of the NFL, NBA, MLB seasons.

Here we go:

PIT Pirates $155 to win $100

DET Tigers $155 to win $100

ATL Braves $155 to win $100

OAK A's $155 to win $100


I hope you do not mind. If so I will create another thread.

I do not mind at all. That is what the spirit of my threads are all about, trying new ideas and discussing them with others.

[arpeggiomeister]

What is the criteria for picking your teams for these chases?

[BarstoolProphet]

Not a bad start. 3-1.

Starting Bankroll: $6000

Current Bankroll: $6145

Goal: $7200 20% ROI

As for the criteria, it is about 12 parameters. Mostly on Pitching match ups and opposing hitters vs. those pitchers. Home/Away records, overall records. Opening line, It will mostly always be favorites that we will chase. Not what I normally like to do. But it was a combination of about 4 systems that I like.

Rather than "data mine" and create a new parameter on an existing system, in order to turn an L into a W, as so many people like to do and call it their own, I simply combined 4-5 systems that I liked and used only the logical parameters and it seemed to work out so far. It stills needs polishing. Lets hit this goal and then I will refine it a bit more.

For example, today I had the second game of the DET/CLEV match up as the first game of the day. So it will not be a chase on the first game of today. I really like Kluber for the Tribe. A majority of this system is the money management. Debating on whether to chase the second game of today,(3rd game in series) or simply taking the 1 loss and getting it back on the next 6 chases. Since we did have a profitable day yesterday. But we do need to make that goal of 12 units. So spreading it out over the next 6 , may take an entire week or more. We only have 4 weeks to work with here.

Conclusion: The second game of that DH of DET/CLEV is -175. Current loss on that chase $155. So it would take $272 to recoup our loss yesterday. This is so easy when back testing. You simply just record the result. Real time and real money makes it ,,,well REAL. I try and tell this to so many people when they come up with these systems , sure it looks great on paper, but when it comes to wagering that "paper" in real time, it now becomes reality. ie, the guy with a 6 game chase. I would bet that 99.9% people following it will never make that 6th bet. But they can air bet it on back testing and say that the record is 6859-0, and call it the greatest thing since sliced bread. In reality they are not betting it.

So here it is. Going to bet only to recoup my loss. If this were at the beginning of my season I would chase it , knowing I had more time to recoup that loss.

If DET losses Game 1 today then I will:

DET Tigers $272 to win $155 Game 2

If DET wins Game 1 today then no play.

[arpeggiomeister]

Got burned on the semi-arbitrage. This blew up my account. I was hanging it all on the line which is a dangerous thing to do. I was playing around with tiny amounts so I am not overly concerned. There are a couple of things that I wanted to point out. The first deals with the major streaks this experiment went through. The Semi-arbitrage was supposed to be a control experiment to compare to the underdog chase and the over/under which truly fit my theory. The Semi-arbitrage is random so far as I can tell. You typically deal with different teams every day. There is not psychological connection from one game to the next and thus you are completely depending on luck. I just encountered 3 losses in a very short span. This shows the experiment returning to the mean after some large aberrant streaks. I encountered this with my experiments on roulette and blackjack as well.

[arpeggiomeister]

The second point I wanted to make has to do with gambling addiction, specifically "setting the hook". I do not consider myself an addict. I never risk more then I can afford to lose. That is my golden rule. However, after seeing such a huge streak I decided to play with real money. Not a lot, but real money. I turned $200 into $950 before encountering double losses which set me all the way back to $246. I put in $254 to replace the last loss bringing the account back to $500. I planned on hitting 5 bets in a row which would set me at $1,000. As a result I blew up my account. Even now it is tempting to reload and try again. I have put on the brakes because I have no logical explanation as to why this was working so well other then I hit a major lucky streak. I find the results intriguing but I need to put some thought into what happened and see if I can find a solution. Otherwise I am throwing money at the wall and hoping just like any slot machine player, roulette player, etc. That is not my style. This concludes the semi-arbitrage experiment. As of now both control experiments have failed while the two Pendulum Cycle Theory experiments are still standing.

[arpeggiomeister]

The underdog and semi-arbitrage lose, the under just barely
squeaks in. It was 8.5 and the game came out to 8. The
semi-arbitrage suffers a critical failure. Early in the experiment I
was disturbed by how thin the chase system was so I added a 3^rd
tier. While the loss would not be total this third loss would
cripple the account. What I did with my real account was a total
loss as I was being more aggressive then using a grand martingale. I
was using an anti-martingale which takes your profits and risks them
all until you bust or decide to exit. I just busted. In either
case, for this to be a legitimate strategy there must be some
determining factor other then luck that makes me believe this is
going to win and so far I do not see it so I have drawn this
experiment to a close until such time as I can find an edge.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

HOU +112

$26.96

O/U Chase

ARI U/7.5

$10.50

[BarstoolProphet]

2 Game Chase System

Starting Bankroll: $6000

Current Bankroll: $5873

Goal: $7200 20% ROI

Well DET did not come through for me. I had a feeling that I should have been content with a winning day and leave it at that. We will get it done this coming week.

Arp, as for the semi-arb. I have studied a way to beat that for many years, still to this day have not found one. I too agree it gets promising on such great streaks it has. But just as those hot streaks come so does those cold ones. I have too officially given up on trying to make that work.

What I do sometimes on heavy favorites of -200 or more that I like. I will parlay them with a semi-arb to bring the juice down , rather than play the runline. I think that my odds are better to only win the favorite game and another game (home team does not win by 1 run) than me winning the heavily favorite by 2.

See ya guys on Monday.

[arpeggiomeister]

2 Game Chase System

Starting Bankroll: $6000

Current Bankroll: $5873

Goal: $7200 20% ROI

Well DET did not come through for me. I had a feeling that I should have been content with a winning day and leave it at that. We will get it done this coming week.

Arp, as for the semi-arb. I have studied a way to beat that for many years, still to this day have not found one. I too agree it gets promising on such great streaks it has. But just as those hot streaks come so does those cold ones. I have too officially given up on trying to make that work.

What I do sometimes on heavy favorites of -200 or more that I like. I will parlay them with a semi-arb to bring the juice down , rather than play the runline. I think that my odds are better to only win the favorite game and another game (home team does not win by 1 run) than me winning the heavily favorite by 2.

See ya guys on Monday.

It was a fun experiment but everything I do is based on understanding the psychology behind the numbers and then using chase systems for an expected margin of error. The problem with the semi-arb is that I can not find a way to connect the public psychology to the results. This means I am playing a random game and all of the negative EV discussions some into play. With the underdog chase you have teams that the public have written off, but they still win games. The problem with this chase is that even though public perception affects the payout, the underdog still must win to make money. A losing streak of 15 games or so would wipe out any chase system I can devise for it, and there is a very real danger of that happening. I am thinking about testing the top ranked team on the run line bets. Same exact principle but the favorite must win by two runs. I am thinking out loud here, but I think that following the underdog through the first half of the season and then switching to the favorite with the run lines on the second half could be a good play. As the season progresses the underdogs will become less and less likely to win as the top teams start pushing to get in the playoffs. Excuse my lack of MLB knowledge if playoffs is not what they call it. The point is that public perception has written off the underdogs who will win games throughout the season. As the top teams begin on their championship runs the underdogs become less likely to win. This is the time to start playing the favorites on the run line.

[arpeggiomeister]

I have another idea up my sleeve as well. I created something I called the "Super Martingale" for roulette. First I will tell you what it is, and then why I think it just might work in sports using parlays. I since have heard people on here call the Grand Martingale a "Super Martingale" so I should probably rename it. It was designed to go extremely deep. When you bet a single number on roulette the payout is 35:1. I designed this on online roulette wheels with a minimum bet of $1 and max of $100. I would start by placing $1 bets. I would 30 $1 bets say on the number 4. If I lost all 30 I would then raise my bets to $2 for 19 more bets. Since the payout is 35:1 the system is profitable as long as you do not bust. This thing is absolutely enormous. I was able to squeeze 149 tiers out of it. My tests ultimately proved what the experts have said all along, no matter how much you mess with the betting pattern it can not overcome a negative EV. I bought a wheel and tested for 3,800 spins. I tracked each number that came up and tested for bias on the wheel. My wheel was indeed biased but still failed. 4 was a bias number on my wheel and yet I had streaks where it would not come up for over 200 spins... ...more then enough to destroy this monster martingale system. I will post the chase system so you can see it and then discuss an idea that I have for using it to bet on sports.

[arpeggiomeister]

Mike's
Monster Martingale

Bet Size	Number of Plays	Individual Bank Roll	Total Bank Roll
$1.00	30	$30.00	$30.00
$2.00	19	$38.00	$68.00
$3.00	11	$33.00	$101.00
$5.00	14	$60.00	$171.00
$10.00	17	$170.00	$341.00
$20.00	17	$340.00	$681.00
$40.00	17	$680.00	$1,361.00
$80.00	17	$1,360.00	$2,721.00
$100.00	7	$700.00	$3,421.00

149
rounds of play. $3,421 Bank Roll.

[arpeggiomeister]

I am thinking about trying an experiment with parlays using this same concept. You could create 30 combinations of a $1 parlay that pays 35:1. This would require several teams. You could then progress through the series as displayed above. You would have to narrow down the field and weed out the most unlikely outcomes. By covering a large number of combinations and having 149 tiers to play with it would be interesting to see if I could make it work. I might need to tweak with it a bit to even out the combinations to something consistent, but the idea is there.

[BarstoolProphet]

Great posts.

Now about your logic in baseball, mid to late august is about the time the general public will think the same as you. And those so called favorites will be WAY over valued. A top tiered pitcher against a mediocre team will be like -250 or more, whereas the same match up in June will only have been -175. This is about the time you will see teams be better valued as a dog to play rather than your thought of playing the fav to win by 2. Just food for thought. Hence why you see a lot of ppl including myself shut down their systems at the end of August and not even continue into Sept. Hell I tend to stop playing Mid August. Too many AAA players get called up and have something to prove.

Now about your idea of the Super Marty. I like it. You always intrigue me with your way of thinking. It keeps my way of thinking fresh. Thank you.

You are absolutely right about the SemiArb. and that it is random. What we are seeking is something similar to a Correlated Parlay. Where if we can find something in the days games that could have an effect on another play.

First we will need to find out how many plays are needed to generate your 35 to 1 ratio. Which would be close to either a 5 to 6 team parlay. For example:

We would take 3 of the lowest totals on the board for that day and the Home team(or Favorite) and the Under in each match up and chase that until it hits.


Today I have:

SD Padre -105 Under 6.5 -110
NYY -120 Under 7 -110
LAD -185 Under 6.5 -110

Which yields about 38.8 units.

As you can see I took the Home team except for LAD, only because they are heavy favorites. My Thought was take the Road team in our little one day experiment because they are favored so much.

[BarstoolProphet]

More thought. The ROI in this doesnt seem to be favorable. Sure in Roulette, you can get 149 spins in an hour or 2. But in sports, like MLB, 149 plays or days , will be about an entire season. 6 months at 30 days = 180 total. And lets say on our 149th play we hit. yippppeeee

wait, really, a whopping $179 profit. and the season is nearly over. Maybe something we should not spin our wheels on. A little play on words there for ya. lol

But let me think about it some more.

[keel44]

Guys, read through my thread from last year. It worked for me. I don't know why I gave it up. I'll need to go back to it. Read through the posts, it is my finest hour.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-baseball.html

[BarstoolProphet]

2 Game Chase System

Starting Bankroll: $6000

Current Bankroll: $5873

Goal: $7200 20% ROI


ATL Braves -175 $301 to win $172

Keel, I have adopted your money management idea and have applied it in this experiment. I took all the losses that I had on DET Tigers $155 Game 1 and $272 Game 2 ($427) and divided it up across my next 6 plays. So now instead of my base amount to win $100 it is now to win $172.

As for the parlay thread you had, this is where I got the idea. However , I did see your winning percentage on the games straight up. And yes, it was a very cold streak. If you cant not do well enough to "get close" to break even then parlays really are not the solution.

Remember we are here to help one another. So the next time someone asks you " Do you have a gambling problem?"

You can whole heartly reply," NO, But I have a gambling solution!"

GO Braves. GL GUYS.

[arpeggiomeister]

Both plays cover. HOU scores 11 but is not playing today. OAK
scores 10 but is not playing today. TOR scores 9 and is playing
today so I will take them for the under.





Today's plays:





Underdog Chase

TEX +155

$6.45

O/U

TOR U/8.5 -110

$11.00

[arpeggiomeister]

More thought. The ROI in this doesnt seem to be favorable. Sure in Roulette, you can get 149 spins in an hour or 2. But in sports, like MLB, 149 plays or days , will be about an entire season. 6 months at 30 days = 180 total. And lets say on our 149th play we hit. yippppeeee

wait, really, a whopping $179 profit. and the season is nearly over. Maybe something we should not spin our wheels on. A little play on words there for ya. lol

But let me think about it some more.

The difference here is that you can matrix many different combinations together. Baseball is not the best example because of the varying odds. I was thinking football. If you parlay 6 teams together you can create many combinations. If you choose one team that you think is definitely going to cover and then run different combinations of the rest the odds increase that you are going to cover. We can't hit every possible combination or it will not be profitable but you can hit say 20 combinations. A 6 team parlay at 11:10 odds win will pay out over 40:1.

[arpeggiomeister]

Here is a chart of multiple combinations. F stands for favorite, U stands for underdog.

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
F	F	F	F	F	F	F	F	F	F	F	F
F	U	U	F	F	F	F	U	F	F	F	U
F	U	F	U	F	F	F	U	U	F	F	F
F	U	F	F	U	F	F	F	U	U	F	F
F	U	F	F	F	U	F	F	F	U	U	F
F	U	F	F	F	F	U	F	F	F	U	U
13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
F	F	F	F	F	F	F	F
U	F	F	U	U	U	F	U
U	U	F	F	U	U	U	F
U	U	U	F	F	U	U	U
F	U	U	U	F	U	U	U
F	F	U	U	U	F	U	U

[arpeggiomeister]

I started going through 2013 and making mock plays. One thing that is really striking is that this is a major pain in the ass. The back test can not be considered legit because I already know the results of the games but so far this is what I got.

1. W – 2 DEN w, SEA l, ATL l, NE l, HOU l, CIN l
   
2. L DEN w, ATL w, NE l, HOU l, GB w, NO l
   
3. L ATL vs MIA
   
4. L NO w, CHI l, NE w, CIN l , KC w, IND w
   
   I win the first week and lose the next 3. Now if I was to place $1 bets on the first week, $2 the next week, $4 on the third, etc. I think this would work. Not sure what the ROI would look like but I think I have methods that are way easier then this that will produce the same results without the extra effort. Still, it was a cool idea.

[arpeggiomeister]

Guys, read through my thread from last year. It worked for me. I don't know why I gave it up. I'll need to go back to it. Read through the posts, it is my finest hour.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...-baseball.html

What you are calling "pressing" is what I call the "anti-martingale". If you can get them to hit they multiply fast. I do something similar when playing blackjack. I call it a "hybrid martingale" because I will chase when I lose and press when I win. I'll bet $10 to start. If I win I bet $20. If I win again I bet $40. If I win this time I bet $20 to try and cap off $100. If I lose that $20 I will bet $40. If I lose again I will bet $20. If that loses I start over again. If I start with a loss I will chase the $10 with a $20 bet the way you normally would chase a martingale. Sometimes I will only raise the bet by $10 each time instead of doubling. Any chase system fails against random games but if you add card counting into the picture the success rate changes dramatically. I have never done this in a casino because I can't count well enough yet to look like I am playing normally but I have done hundreds of trials at home, perhaps even thousands, and it works. I prefer sports betting because you can make your decisions at your own pace without the pressure of a pit boss breathing down your neck. The advantage of card counting though is that you can have hundreds of trials in the span of 3 hours where as you only have one baseball game in that time. You can bet multiple games but there is still no comparison to how many bets you can place playing blackjack

[arpeggiomeister]

I am actually considering doing something similar with 15 point teasers in the NFL.

[arpeggiomeister]

Great posts.

Now about your logic in baseball, mid to late august is about the time the general public will think the same as you. And those so called favorites will be WAY over valued. A top tiered pitcher against a mediocre team will be like -250 or more, whereas the same match up in June will only have been -175. This is about the time you will see teams be better valued as a dog to play rather than your thought of playing the fav to win by 2. Just food for thought. Hence why you see a lot of ppl including myself shut down their systems at the end of August and not even continue into Sept. Hell I tend to stop playing Mid August. Too many AAA players get called up and have something to prove.

Now about your idea of the Super Marty. I like it. You always intrigue me with your way of thinking. It keeps my way of thinking fresh. Thank you.

You are absolutely right about the SemiArb. and that it is random. What we are seeking is something similar to a Correlated Parlay. Where if we can find something in the days games that could have an effect on another play.

First we will need to find out how many plays are needed to generate your 35 to 1 ratio. Which would be close to either a 5 to 6 team parlay. For example:

We would take 3 of the lowest totals on the board for that day and the Home team(or Favorite) and the Under in each match up and chase that until it hits.


Today I have:

SD Padre -105 Under 6.5 -110
NYY -120 Under 7 -110
LAD -185 Under 6.5 -110

Which yields about 38.8 units.

As you can see I took the Home team except for LAD, only because they are heavy favorites. My Thought was take the Road team in our little one day experiment because they are favored so much.

I am actually looking to get out in August. I am closing in on my goal of 40%. Today's bet on the underdog chase is bet #87. I need to hit 100 to get 40%. If bet 100 does not cover then I must chase until it does. I should hit bet 100 some time in the first week of August. I should be out by the second week in August. The over/under is lagging behind. I am on bet 79 today so I have 21 bets left to hit 100. Should still be out before September on that one.

[BarstoolProphet]

First I would like to get something more refined for this upcoming NFL season. I have already decided to shut down MLB by Aug 15th.

I like the idea of doing 20 combinations of the 64 possible outcomes. However, one must understand that with parlays there is a considerable amount of value lost. I would like you to refine and reduce the amount of plays in your Roulette System to accommodate only for a 3 team parlay. Reasoning is parlays are bad any way you look at them. They do not return true odds. A 3 team parlay is the ONLY one to do so.

I have said this many times over as well. The only time to do a parlay is if the events overlap on the time scale. For example if we were to bet only 3 NFL morning games. But If we were to bet a morning game then and afternoon game then the Sunday night game. It is wise to straight bet them and press the amount into the next event or game.

Not to insult anyone's intelligence here , but I am sure with the level of math skills in this thread , everyone already knows the possible outcomes and their respective payouts. But it bears repeating.

2 Teams = 4 Possible Outcomes = 2.6 to 1 payout True Payout = 2.64 to 1

3 Teams = 8 Possible Outcomes = 6 to 1 payout True Payout = 5.95 to 1

4 Teams = 16 Possible Outcomes = 10 to 1 payout True Payout = 12.28 to 1

5 Teams = 32 Possible Outcomes = 20 to 1 payout True Payout = 24.35 to 1

6 Teams = 64 Possible Outcomes = 40 to 1 payout True Payout = 47.40 to 1


Based on the above information, one can conclude the ONLY advantageous parlay is the 3 teamer. Because it is the ONLY one that pays out more than the TRUE outcome.

True outcome is based on the idea of "pressing" the bet and its winnings forward into the next event.

So if we are going to do parlays and not as Keel suggested in the MLB thread and press bets forward. Then we will only need to work with the 3 teamer, otherwise we are killing ourselves.

So We develop a "full proof" Super Marty system tailored to only the 3 team and 6 to 1 payout. Or we can take it up to Mike's Roulette Super Marty , but will need to do a combination of two 3 teamers. So lets say we Take 3 NFL morning games and parlay them together and then press that into another 3 team parlay in the afternoon. For a total of 6 teams.

In conclusion: We work with 3 team parlays or simply straight bet and press forward. The math speaks for itself.

[BarstoolProphet]

2 Game Chase System

Overall Record: 3-3

Starting Bankroll: $6000

Current Bankroll: $5572

Goal: $7200 20% ROI


ATL Braves -175 $828 to win $473

[keel44]

I really like the idea of pressing a high +odds situation with a chase. A normal handicapper should be able to get hot enough to satisfy whatever is needed to win. I say just use your own picks with a version of money management.

[arpeggiomeister]

Pressed for time. Underdog wins, under bet loses.





Today's plays





Underdog Chase

TEX +160

$6.25

O/U chase

BOS U/9 -115

$35.65

[BarstoolProphet]

2 Game Chase System

Overall Record: 3-3

Starting Bankroll: $6000

Current Bankroll: $5572

Goal: $7200 20% ROI


ATL Braves -175 $828 to win $473

Adding:

OAk A's -260 $447 to win $172

[arpeggiomeister]

Both bets lose. That brings us to tier 2 on the underdog and tier
3 on the under bet,





Today's Plays:





Underdog Chase

TEX -110

28.88

O/U Chase

BOS U/8.5 -110

85.42

[arpeggiomeister]

First I would like to get something more refined for this upcoming NFL season. I have already decided to shut down MLB by Aug 15th.

I like the idea of doing 20 combinations of the 64 possible outcomes. However, one must understand that with parlays there is a considerable amount of value lost. I would like you to refine and reduce the amount of plays in your Roulette System to accommodate only for a 3 team parlay. Reasoning is parlays are bad any way you look at them. They do not return true odds. A 3 team parlay is the ONLY one to do so.

I have said this many times over as well. The only time to do a parlay is if the events overlap on the time scale. For example if we were to bet only 3 NFL morning games. But If we were to bet a morning game then and afternoon game then the Sunday night game. It is wise to straight bet them and press the amount into the next event or game.

Not to insult anyone's intelligence here , but I am sure with the level of math skills in this thread , everyone already knows the possible outcomes and their respective payouts. But it bears repeating.

2 Teams = 4 Possible Outcomes = 2.6 to 1 payout True Payout = 2.64 to 1

3 Teams = 8 Possible Outcomes = 6 to 1 payout True Payout = 5.95 to 1

4 Teams = 16 Possible Outcomes = 10 to 1 payout True Payout = 12.28 to 1

5 Teams = 32 Possible Outcomes = 20 to 1 payout True Payout = 24.35 to 1

6 Teams = 64 Possible Outcomes = 40 to 1 payout True Payout = 47.40 to 1


Based on the above information, one can conclude the ONLY advantageous parlay is the 3 teamer. Because it is the ONLY one that pays out more than the TRUE outcome.

True outcome is based on the idea of "pressing" the bet and its winnings forward into the next event.

So if we are going to do parlays and not as Keel suggested in the MLB thread and press bets forward. Then we will only need to work with the 3 teamer, otherwise we are killing ourselves.

So We develop a "full proof" Super Marty system tailored to only the 3 team and 6 to 1 payout. Or we can take it up to Mike's Roulette Super Marty , but will need to do a combination of two 3 teamers. So lets say we Take 3 NFL morning games and parlay them together and then press that into another 3 team parlay in the afternoon. For a total of 6 teams.

In conclusion: We work with 3 team parlays or simply straight bet and press forward. The math speaks for itself.

Here is my first crack at it. (and actually my math skills are
pretty basic. I haven't done anything more advanced then simple
ratios and basic algebra since high school)





I have a 9 level system. This one is pretty aggressive, offering
a large return if you go the distance. If we wanted to hold the
profit at $120 and accept a smaller return I think we could make this
stretch through the entire NFL regular season.

	Risk Amount	Total Risk	Amount won
1	$20.00	$20.00	$120.00
2	$30.00	$50.00	$130.00
3	$40.00	$90.00	$150.00
4	$50.00	$140.00	$160.00
5	$70.00	$210.00	$210.00
6	$110.00	$320.00	$340.00
7	$160.00	$480.00	$480.00
8	$250.00	$730.00	$770.00
9	$400.00	$1,130.00	$1,270.00

[BarstoolProphet]

2 Game Chase System

Overall Record: 3-5

Starting Bankroll: $6000

Current Bankroll: $4297

Goal: $7200 20% ROI

Well this is not going well at all. In the years of the back testing , it never had back to back losses, chase losses. But just goes to show that it is always possible. Meeting the goal by that deadline seems a near impossibility. However, I did account for at least one big loss in these time frame, but not two.

I do have a contingency, that is not to chase into the second game, and only play the first game and spread losses over the next 3 bets. So this will be the plan going forward. This may bring me back to even and I might need to go into the end of Aug. if I am to meet that goal.

So units will be increased to $300 in order to meet this goal. It is virtually the same unit layout because there will be no chase into the 2nd game where the bet size gets to be too large. This is an average of the total unit outlay , so $300 isnt really an increase as it is more of an redistribution of resources. lol.

good luck guys.

[arpeggiomeister]

I am more intrigued by teasers then parlays. When you hit a parlay it is like a lightning strike but teasers are predictable. The main basis of "The Pendulum Cycle Theory" is that extreme results make the public act in predictable patterns. If a team wins against the spread by 20 or more points the public will jump all over that team in the next game which drives the spread even higher. If a dog loses by 20 or more points then the spread will decrease as more people shy away from that team. If you take the opposite side and put it into teasers it should produce positive results. I have absolutely crushed it in the past with this. I didn't do so hot last year, but I think that is because I was trying too many different ideas instead of choosing one strategy and sticking with it. I have several filters I use but here is a basic one. If they win by 20+ ATS fade them, if they lose by 20+ bet them. Here are the results from last year. Mix and match the teams from week to week and I think you will start to see what I have been saying all along, there is absolutely nothing random about this whatsoever.

[arpeggiomeister]

Chase Tracker 2013 AFC

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NE

L8

L9

W13

W9.5

L7

W1.5

L6.5

W3

W17

BYE

L1

W4

L4.5

L10

L1.5

W32

W6.5

NYJ

W4

W9

W6

L21.5

W12.5

L13

W6.5

L34.5

W11.5

BYE

L24

L11.5

L20

W7

W1

W10

W21.5

BUF

W8

W4.5

L6

W6

L9.5

W4

W9

L6.5

L5.5

L10.5

W24

BYE

L8

L18.5

W2.5

W18

L6.5

MIA

W14.5

W5

W2

L13.5

L5.5

BYE

L9

L3

W5

L2

W6.5

W0.5

W20

W9

W1.5

L18

L21.5

PIT

L14

L3.5

L16

L9.5

BYE

W13

W2

L5.5

L17

W10.5

W13

W16

W0.5

L9

W12

W6

W2.5

BAL

L13

W1

W21

L6

W5.5

L2

L2

BYE

L6

W3

P

W11.5

L0.5

L4

W6.5

W32

L9.5

CIN

P

W3.5

W7

L14.5

W7

L4

W5.5

W34.5

L5

L3

W16.5

BYE

W7

W6.5

L12

W19

W9.5

CLE

L14.5

L1

W10

W14.5

W9.5

L14

L8

W2

W6

BYE

L16.5

L16

L12.5

W10

L7

L10

L2.5

HOU

W2

L3

L21

L3

L27

L34.5

W6

BYE

L3

P

L17

L19

W4.5

L10

L16

L13

W1

IND

L6

L5

W30

W24.5

W8.5

L11

W13

BYE

W3

L39

P

L26

W5

L6.5

W16

W24.5

W7

JAC

L22.5

L6.5

L28

L24.5

L1.5

W10.5

L9

L15.5

BYE

W14.5

L2

W19

W12.5

W10

L2.5

P

L7

TEN

W14

W3

P

W21.5

L6.5

W5.5

L10.5

BYE

W4

L14.5

P

W1.5

L5

L9

L0.5

P

L1

DEN

W13

W9

W1

W20.5

L6

L10.5

L13

W11.5

BYE

W0.5

W1

L4

W1.5

W9

L18.5

W13

W8.5

SD

L2

W11

P

W9

L15.5

W11

W9

BYE

L6

L0.5

L6.5

W6.5

L7

W19.5

W18.5

W2.5

L10.5

KC

W22.5

L2

W13

W20.5

W6.5

W8

L6

L2

W5.5

BYE

L1

L6.5

L1.5

W32

W18

L24.5

W10.5

OAK

W16

W6.5

L1

L7

W15.5

L8

BYE

W5.5

L29

W3.5

W17

L1.5

W3

L7

L18

L2.5

L8.5

NFC

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

NYG

L2

L9

L37

L20.5

L15

W3.5

W12

W2.5

BYE

L3.5

W11

L5.5

W7

L19.5

L12

W14

W11

PHI

W11

L11

L13

L20.5

W15

W8.5

L16.5

L2.5

W29

L13

W3.5

BYE

P

W13

L25

W40

L5.5

WAS

L11

L9

L5

W7

BYE

L9.5

W4

L11.5

W6

L7

L3.5

L15.5

L7

L32

W4.5

W2

L11

DAL

W2

W2

W13.5

L9

W6

W9.5

W16.5

W2

L6

L25

BYE

W5.5

L3

L15

L4

L2

W5.5

GB

L1.5

W9

L7

BYE

W2

W2

W8

W4

*L18

L13

L11

L5.5

L23

L2.5

W4

L6

W2

CHI

P

L6

W16

L6

L8

L3.5

L4

BYE

W18

L2

P

L20

L3

W15

W7

L40

L2

DET

W6

L5.5

W5

W6

L2

W14

L5.5

L2

BYE

W2

L13

L11

W23

L13

L6.5

L14

L3.5

MIN

L6

W6

L10

W9.5

BYE

L26

L12

L4

W6

W7

L7

W5.5

W3

W4

W25

L19

W3.5

NO

W3

L1

W17

W13.5

W8

L1.5

BYE

W6.5

L11.5

W25

L0.5

L5.5

L27

W15

L18

L1

W13

ATL

L3

W0.5

L2

L9.5

L12.5

BYE

W1

L13

L14

L20

W12

W5.5

W8

W2.5

L4.5

W5

W4

CAR

L2

L4.5

W37

BYE

L18.5

W26

W7.5

W10.5

W14

W8

W1

L0.5

W13

L15

L1

W1

L4

TB

L4

W1

L13

L4

BYE

L8.5

L1

L10.5

L13.5

W2

W12

W11

L13

W18.5

L14.5

L6.5

L13

SF

W1.5

L23

L30

W20.5

W27

W0.5

W10.5

W15.5

BYE

L8

W0.5

W15.5

W1

W1

W14.5

L5

W5.5

SEA

W2

W23

W28

W3

L8.5

L5.5

W7.5

L9.5

L13.5

W20

W7

BYE

W27

L1

W12

L16.5

W4

STL

L1.5

L0.5

L13.5

L20.5

W1.5

W34.5

L7.5

W9.5

L4

W39

BYE

W20

L1

L16

W18

W6.5

L4

ARI

W1.5

W5.5

L17

W4

W18.5

L0.5

L7.5

W13

BYE

P

W2

W26

P

W16

W0.5

W16.5

L5.5