[pagodo]

Original thread:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...ut-system.html

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I'll get this out of the way in the first post: Do not chase with this system (*).
Quoting prime1: If you are not comfortable with labby line wagering, this system could be lethal to your bankroll.
If you want to play along, decide on a labby strategy that best suits you and you will profit.
There is of course high juice involved in some of the series, so this strategy is not for everyone, it requires patience and discipline as it's a slow grind with a big downswing every now and then. I really wanted to do some sort of a recap with a worst-case scenario, but I did not find the time to do it properly.
The system is freaky, it doesn't leave a clear money trail as there is no unit count with multiple labby strategies possible, but I love it.

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(*) analyzer has a promising idea on how to set a chase up for this system, it did well short-term last year, hopefully he'll be around to give some more details

[pagodo]

FAQ (sort of):

System rules & 2005-2010 results (courtesy of black666):
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...ml#post9820937;
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How we set the labby up:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-betting/1024515-shut-out-system-p23.html#post10607857;
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...l#post10788811;
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...l#post11939145;
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Note on the All-Star break: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...l#post10749294;
Note on September: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...l#post10960098
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I will be playing these games on a labby using a flexible 2- and 3-strike approach, with a 0.25% BR unit size.

[DustyDiamond]

checking in hoping for a big year

[Maleku]

Thanks Pagodo!

I have been using labby for a couple of years now and will be doing a 3 line labby for game 1/6, 2/5 and 3/4 as you recommended last season.

Would you mind educating me on what the 2-3 strike labby is? I am always very interested on new and evolved labby systems.

Thanks in advance and good luck to all!

[analyzer]

Thanks pagodo! Looking forward to the season!

[TeamNookMum]

Thanks Pagodo!

I have been using labby for a couple of years now and will be doing a 3 line labby for game 1/6, 2/5 and 3/4 as you recommended last season.

Would you mind educating me on what the 2-3 strike labby is? I am always very interested on new and evolved labby systems.

Thanks in advance and good luck to all!

Could you explain how you do your labby with the 3 lines?

[pagodo]

Would you mind educating me on what the 2-3 strike labby is? I am always very interested on new and evolved labby systems.

Maleku,
Using the 3-strike approach you bet to cross off three numbers from your line instead of two.
Basic 2-strike: 10-10-10-10 (-120) risk 24 to win 20
Basic 3-strike: 10-10-10-10-10-10 (-120) risk 36 to win 30
If a bet loses you add one number to the line, the same as with a 2-strike.
With the 3-strike approach you basically need to hit 40% of -110 bets to comfortably clear lines and profit.
The problem with the shutout is that lines do get quite big sometimes and you might get a string of big fav bets that go the wrong way - and if you're not careful, you might be facing 15-unit bets very quickly.
That's why I will only be using the 3-strike approach in carefully chosen circumstances.

Could you explain how you do your labby with the 3 lines?

TNM,
post #2

[floridagolfer]

Did anyone ever address the issue of what to do when two plays are playing against each other?

[arizona40]

Pagoda,

I followed this thread alot last year as I was intrigued by the reults. I do agree with the fact that a chase on this system would result in some very high risks and that a labby would be the way to go.

I love the 3 line system you came up with regarding having game 1-6, 2-5, and 3-4 on three different lines.

I came up with a more conservative approach using the 2 strike system.

EG: a line would look like this;

10-10-10-10-10

1/ Add the last 2 and that would be your bet. However if positive juice like +130 your bet would still be to win 20 so......15.38 to win 20. If negative juice like -130 it would be 26 to win 20.

2/ If bet wins you cross the first and last number of the line take the remaining numbers on the line add them together and then divide by an extra spot on the line.

so for the -130 example it would look like this.

10-10-10-10-10

Bet 26 to win 20 and win

x-10-10-10-x remaining numbers add up to 30 and divide by 4

So new line would look like this:

7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5

Follow so far?

3/ If the bet loses you don't add another spot on the line, You just add the numbers on the line + the amount you lost on the bet and divide by how many spots you have left on the line.

Eg: for the -130 bet

Bet 26 to win 20 and lose.

New line would look like this:

15.2-15.2-15.2-15.2-15.2 and the next bet would be to win 30.20

The reason for this is that the line would take a little longer to complete but would control the amount of units you would have riding on a particular bet.

With regard to bankroll, I would recommend your unit size to be a reflection of .5-1.0% of your bankroll. Even with the losses this system incurred last season they would have not taken that long to recover.

My only question to you is lets say you have 2 game 1's and a game 6 going on the same day that is 3 bets on your 1st line. How did you split up these bets. Did you bet all three games similar or did you split the amount to bet on the line between the three games.

The reason I ask this is how would you work your line when lets say you had 2 wins and aloss if there was three games.

Sorry for the long post, but I really appreciated the work you put in last season and wanted to share a bit of what i developed with regard to a conservative labby.

Cheers

[Maleku]

Pagoda,

I followed this thread alot last year as I was intrigued by the reults. I do agree with the fact that a chase on this system would result in some very high risks and that a labby would be the way to go.

I love the 3 line system you came up with regarding having game 1-6, 2-5, and 3-4 on three different lines.

I came up with a more conservative approach using the 2 strike system.

EG: a line would look like this;

10-10-10-10-10

1/ Add the last 2 and that would be your bet. However if positive juice like +130 your bet would still be to win 20 so......15.38 to win 20. If negative juice like -130 it would be 26 to win 20.

2/ If bet wins you cross the first and last number of the line take the remaining numbers on the line add them together and then divide by an extra spot on the line.

so for the -130 example it would look like this.

10-10-10-10-10

Bet 26 to win 20 and win

x-10-10-10-x remaining numbers add up to 30 and divide by 4

So new line would look like this:

7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5

Follow so far?

3/ If the bet loses you don't add another spot on the line, You just add the numbers on the line + the amount you lost on the bet and divide by how many spots you have left on the line.

Eg: for the -130 bet

Bet 26 to win 20 and lose.

New line would look like this:

15.2-15.2-15.2-15.2-15.2 and the next bet would be to win 30.20

The reason for this is that the line would take a little longer to complete but would control the amount of units you would have riding on a particular bet.

With regard to bankroll, I would recommend your unit size to be a reflection of .5-1.0% of your bankroll. Even with the losses this system incurred last season they would have not taken that long to recover.

My only question to you is lets say you have 2 game 1's and a game 6 going on the same day that is 3 bets on your 1st line. How did you split up these bets. Did you bet all three games similar or did you split the amount to bet on the line between the three games.

The reason I ask this is how would you work your line when lets say you had 2 wins and aloss if there was three games.

Sorry for the long post, but I really appreciated the work you put in last season and wanted to share a bit of what i developed with regard to a conservative labby.

Cheers

Arizona, you are on to some real quality stuff with your labby methods. Thank you for sharing.

To answer your last question I think I will be betting equal amounts if there is more than 2 games.

To add a conservative angle to my line I will also be resetting the line the moment is shows a profit.

Example: I like to start a very basic line of 10 - 10

I lose my first bet at -130 so my line will look like this 10 - 10 - 26

I win the next bet scooping 1/2 of a unit of profit. Therefore, I will wipe the line and start again at 10 - 10.

This will be more of a meaningful impact when I have 3 games on a line and go 2-1 making a small profit on the day.

Another thing I like to do is ensure I always have a 10 on the left side of my line.

Example:

During the grind of working off a stubborn line you could end up with something that looks like this: 26 - 45 - 57

I do not like that 26 on the left so I will deduct 10 from the 26 and transfer it over to look like this: 10 - 16 - 45 - 57

This makes working off a line a bit more of a grind but keeps the bet sizes in perspective.


Really looking forward to this year gentlemen!!!


Bring on the Shutouts!!

[Maleku]

By the way... are we considering the Regular Season games happening in Japan over the next two days "active" for the system?

If there is a shutout do we begin or are we going to wait for April 4th?

I will follow what you guys want to do.

[arizona40]

By the way... are we considering the Regular Season games happening in Japan over the next two days "active" for the system?

If there is a shutout do we begin or are we going to wait for April 4th?

I will follow what you guys want to do.

I really dont think it matters where the game is played. A shutout is a shutout IMO and wouldn't want to pass up an opportunity to make some mooolah.

With regard to your labby lines. I like the fact that you dont like having a 10 on the left side of your line. Conservative is the way to go with this system and if you look at the record from last year there is lots of time to clear the lines.

I have a very conservative approach when it comes to my bankroll. I have a no sweep system that I have been tracking for 4 years. Never had a losing season with it and yields anywhere between 30-40% of profit on my roll a year. That being said I just finished backtesting it using my conservative labby method and the %'s have doubled with less risk. Sounds weird but I am able to go longer in a chase using the labby method thus resulting in fewer losses.

How I work my bankroll is such.

Unit size will be 1% of my roll ie) 1000.00 roll 10$ unit.

Once the hockey season starts I take my baseball profit add it to my total roll and my unit size becomes 10% of that total. Think about it......... this compunds quite quickly and before you know it your roll will be able to withstand unit sizes of 1-200$ in no time.

I have a hockey system that achieved 90% of my roll this year with no system losses and has hit 90% backtested each year for the past 4 years.


Just a little info on how I make my bets and how conservative my approach is. I aleays keep in mind that pro sports have very long seasons and there is no need to make everything in the first week.

Ramble post I know, but us fun to chat and learn about each others systems to achieve a common ground which is making money!!!

cheers.

[TeamNookMum]

All the content in this thread is wicked! appreciate all the advice.
Question though, say for example the line is at 10-10-10-10-26.. and there's 3 plays that qualify today. do i play all three bets to win 36?

[arizona40]

All the content in this thread is wicked! appreciate all the advice.
Question though, say for example the line is at 10-10-10-10-26.. and there's 3 plays that qualify today. do i play all three bets to win 36?

I think that is what I would do.

Lets say you have 3 games, 2 wins 1 loss, I think I would work the lines as follows.

10-10-10-10-26

Game one at -130 bet 46.80 to win 36 and win

Game two at +120 bet 30.00 to win 36 and lose

Game three at -110 bet 39.60 to win 36 and win

I would adjust the line as follows.

starting line 10-10-10-10-26

Take the wins first so after game 1 1st and last number get crossed out

so line now becomes 10-10-10, but i like to add a fourth number after a win so mine would now look like

7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5

I then take he amount won on the second game which is 36 and that amounts to greater than the sum of the line, so to me the line would be finished and would start a new line for the game that I had lost.

So new line starts at 10-10-10-10 and i had lost 30 that game,

So traditional labby would look like this 10-10-10-10-30, for me I dont like to see big numbers on my line so instead of adding 30 to the end I would take the sum of the first 4 which is 40, add the 30 I lost which makes 70 and dvide by 4 to make my line look like this:

17.5-17.5-17.5-17.5

This would make my next bet to win 35 instead of making it to win 40 as it is with the traditional labby.

This is just my way that i am comfortable with and by no means is it written in stone. I think my numbers are correct and if not somone can correct me.

Hope that helps a little.

[TeamNookMum]

I think that is what I would do.

Lets say you have 3 games, 2 wins 1 loss, I think I would work the lines as follows.

10-10-10-10-26

Game one at -130 bet 46.80 to win 36 and win

Game two at +120 bet 30.00 to win 36 and lose

Game three at -110 bet 39.60 to win 36 and win

I would adjust the line as follows.

starting line 10-10-10-10-26

Take the wins first so after game 1 1st and last number get crossed out

so line now becomes 10-10-10, but i like to add a fourth number after a win so mine would now look like

7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5

I then take he amount won on the second game which is 36 and that amounts to greater than the sum of the line, so to me the line would be finished and would start a new line for the game that I had lost.

So new line starts at 10-10-10-10 and i had lost 30 that game,

So traditional labby would look like this 10-10-10-10-30, for me I dont like to see big numbers on my line so instead of adding 30 to the end I would take the sum of the first 4 which is 40, add the 30 I lost which makes 70 and dvide by 4 to make my line look like this:

17.5-17.5-17.5-17.5

This would make my next bet to win 35 instead of making it to win 40 as it is with the traditional labby.

This is just my way that i am comfortable with and by no means is it written in stone. I think my numbers are correct and if not somone can correct me.

Hope that helps a little.

perfect! that's exactly what i wanted to know..

so say in your example there instead of win lose win, you have win lose lose.

Game one at -130 bet 46.80 to win 36 and win

Game two at +120 bet 30.00 to win 36 and lose

Game three at -110 bet 39.60 to win 36 and lose

starting line 10-10-10-10-26

after first win, clear two end numbers, so
10-10-10, add 4th number
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5

add first loss
(7.5+7.5+7.5+7.5+30)/4 = 15
so it becomes 15-15-15-15-15 ?

and then another loss
(15+15+15+15+15+39.6)/5=22.92
22.92+22.92+22.92+22.92+22.92+22.92

[ChiLLx]

In for this season

[arizona40]

perfect! that's exactly what i wanted to know..

so say in your example there instead of win lose win, you have win lose lose.

Game one at -130 bet 46.80 to win 36 and win

Game two at +120 bet 30.00 to win 36 and lose

Game three at -110 bet 39.60 to win 36 and lose

starting line 10-10-10-10-26

after first win, clear two end numbers, so
10-10-10, add 4th number
7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5

add first loss
(7.5+7.5+7.5+7.5+30)/4 = 15
so it becomes 15-15-15-15-15 ?

and then another loss
(15+15+15+15+15+39.6)/5=22.92
22.92+22.92+22.92+22.92+22.92+22.92

Exactly! Now I also am very conservative with regards to bankroll management. If I start the the season with a 1k roll my unit size will be 1% of that.....so $10.

My starting line would look like this:

5-5-5-5-5

I think that it is key to control the amount you have riding on a line because losing streaks do happen and we don't want the line to get out of control with respect to your roll. It is a long season and lets say you were to clear 10 lines during the season which I think is low you would make approximately 25 units on the season, which is not all that bad especially if you combine that with any other systems you might be playing.

Gl to all and no shutout last night so we are still waiting for the first bet.

[arizona40]

actually just went back and looked at it again. You are correct with regards to the win but the 2 losses I don't add the extra number on the line, otherwise you would neve clear a line. the last 2 lines should look like this in your example;

15-15-15-15 you had bet 30 the line sum was 30 for a total of 60/4 spots on the line

next game you lost 39.60 and the line would end up looking like this.

24.9-24.9-24.9-24.9 you had lost 39.60 the line sum was 60 for a total of 99.60/4

so a fictitious next bet on he line would be to win 49.80.

Hope that helps, I personally am adding an extra number on the line after a win not a loss.

Cheers.

[TeamNookMum]

actually just went back and looked at it again. You are correct with regards to the win but the 2 losses I don't add the extra number on the line, otherwise you would neve clear a line. the last 2 lines should look like this in your example;

15-15-15-15 you had bet 30 the line sum was 30 for a total of 60/4 spots on the line

next game you lost 39.60 and the line would end up looking like this.

24.9-24.9-24.9-24.9 you had lost 39.60 the line sum was 60 for a total of 99.60/4

so a fictitious next bet on he line would be to win 49.80.

Hope that helps, I personally am adding an extra number on the line after a win not a loss.

Cheers.

Definitely helps. And you're correct. I understood it, just mistakenly added an extra number.

[pagodo]

Maleku, arizona40, TNM, excellent points and thanks for sharing your thoughts here. I love the conservative labby approach idea, arizona40, and I hope you keep us all updated on how it will be doing this year. My way of playing is a bit more adventurous, I admit. That is also why my starting unit size is set at 0.25% BR.

Also, about the three games on one line - if I don't have enough numbers on the line, I will be playing the biggest fav from the group on a different line. I've done this several times during last year and found it adequate.

No shutouts in the Japan games, so we're waiting for the STL@MIA match on April 4th.

[pagodo]

Did anyone ever address the issue of what to do when two plays are playing against each other?

Yes, several times last year and I don't think there was any agreement on a golden rule about what to do in these cases.

Everyone manages their respective labby lines how they wish and it's up to the bettor whether to play both games or drop both altogether or do whatever else. Myself, I'll be passing on both games.

[on3]

checking in.

[444656]

Thank you!

[spankmythighs]

What about using RL odds for this system? Did you track that at all? I think I will follow u guys with the labby system and do a side RL shutout system. Last year I ran a RL system using the projected top 10 teams and it did very well. I didn't use a labby system just a straight chase system. The longest I went without a win was 8 games using -1 RL but there were some ties in there.

[Teamprofit101]

wow this system looks very good.....I'm having a hard time choosing which system to go with for baseball this year

I have 3 choices

1.Shutout System
2.System Integrity
3.JM MLB

I think i'm a go with Shutout System though, plenty of backtested history

Can you guys please help me with some questions though...

Do you only consider a game a loss, if you chase for 6 games and dont hit?

does anyone have a record of how many units they gained following this system?

how do you decide which game is 1-6?

These are my questions for now, i'm sorry if they are stupid or already in the old thread. I didn't see the answer in the few pages i read so far

[DollarBill10]

Will someone be posting their labby line daily so some of us "slower" people can follow by seeing? :-) (please)

[arizona40]

Maleku, arizona40, TNM, excellent points and thanks for sharing your thoughts here. I love the conservative labby approach idea, arizona40, and I hope you keep us all updated on how it will be doing this year. My way of playing is a bit more adventurous, I admit. That is also why my starting unit size is set at 0.25% BR.

Also, about the three games on one line - if I don't have enough numbers on the line, I will be playing the biggest fav from the group on a different line. I've done this several times during last year and found it adequate.

No shutouts in the Japan games, so we're waiting for the STL@MIA match on April 4th.

I will do my best to help keep this thread alive during the season. Thanks for your kind words. I like my labby system, but again, it may not be for everyone and I am comfortable using ii. I have no problem sharing my progress using this way.

Bring on the shutouts!!!!!!

[arizona40]

Will someone be posting their labby line daily so some of us "slower" people can follow by seeing? :-) (please)

Because you asked nicely and said "please"

This is how I will be setting up my lines:

This system is based on a 6 game chase, havingsaid that, I will transfer the chase to my labby lines as follows:

Games 1 and 6 5-5-5-5-5

Games 2 and 5 5-5-5-5-5

Games 3 and 4 5-5-5-5-5

Now after a win I will cross the first and last number off like so:

x-5-5-5-x

I will then add the numbers together which is 15 and divide by 4 not 3 to average out the line with an extra spot to look like this:

3.75-3.75-3.75-3.75

Next bet would be to win $7.50 instead of $10 that a traditional labby does.

After a loss I would add the numbers on my line plus the amount I lost and divide by how many numbers I had on the line when I made my bet:

For easier calcs lets assume that the odds were even money:

My starting line would be this:

5-5-5-5-5 the bet would be to win 10 and lost....sooooo... new line would look like this:


7-7-7-7-7 and the next bet would be to win 14 instead of the traditional labby which would be to win 15

The key to my system is two-fold.

First after a win i would cross off 2 numbers and then add 1 averaged out. And after a loss I would not add a number to the end, Just average out the line including the amount of the lost bet.

Second with regards to betting, I will always bet to win the amount of the first and last number on the line.

for example +130 odds would be bet $7.69 to win $10
-130 odds would be bet $13.00 to win $10.

This a more conservative approach as the amount on the lines will stay reasonable but the downside they will take a little longer to clear.

The last thing I will mention is that during the system it will be most certain that you will have at least 2 or more plays on the same line in a given day. I have decided that I will play all the games at the same amount.

Example: Lets say for easier calcs you have 2 games that are starting game 1 of the chase and another that is playing game 6 of the chase. That would give us 3 games on the 1-6 line in the same day.

starting line is 5-5-5-5-5

I will play each game to win 10$ as opposed to making all 3 games totalling a $10 bet on the day. I will then adjust the line based on the wins first and then the losses.

That is it!!!!!

Many will feel that using this approach may not achieve enough profit during the season, but according to last years record there is a huge sample size which should....in the long run produce some good results.

I really hope this helps. It is the second time I have tried to explain what I will be doing and my head is beginning to hurt

[pagodo]

Can you guys please help me with some questions though...
Do you only consider a game a loss, if you chase for 6 games and dont hit?
does anyone have a record of how many units they gained following this system?
how do you decide which game is 1-6?
These are my questions for now, i'm sorry if they are stupid or already in the old thread. I didn't see the answer in the few pages i read so far

As to the record of units gained, that's the problem with this system, you could have ten different people playing the shutout games at the same time and each player could end up with a different number of units at the end of the sample period.

I will be keeping track of my bets this year and will be sharing my stats here as well.

On your other questions, please look at post #2 and follow the links.

[Teamprofit101]

Thanks pagodo for responding.

For those that have already followed this system....can you share a sample of your spreadsheet?

I just want to have an idea of how you set everything up...keeping track of the Labby and games

[imzdeals]

I'd love to get a spreadsheet of this system as well....anyone who has one, can you PM me

[cmdyrds]

anyone willing to share the actual pdf's of james jones' system?

[TeamNookMum]

I think that is what I would do.

Lets say you have 3 games, 2 wins 1 loss, I think I would work the lines as follows.

10-10-10-10-26

Game one at -130 bet 46.80 to win 36 and win

Game two at +120 bet 30.00 to win 36 and lose

Game three at -110 bet 39.60 to win 36 and win

I would adjust the line as follows.

starting line 10-10-10-10-26

Take the wins first so after game 1 1st and last number get crossed out

so line now becomes 10-10-10, but i like to add a fourth number after a win so mine would now look like

7.5-7.5-7.5-7.5

I then take he amount won on the second game which is 36 and that amounts to greater than the sum of the line, so to me the line would be finished and would start a new line for the game that I had lost.

So new line starts at 10-10-10-10 and i had lost 30 that game,

So traditional labby would look like this 10-10-10-10-30, for me I dont like to see big numbers on my line so instead of adding 30 to the end I would take the sum of the first 4 which is 40, add the 30 I lost which makes 70 and dvide by 4 to make my line look like this:

17.5-17.5-17.5-17.5

This would make my next bet to win 35 instead of making it to win 40 as it is with the traditional labby.

This is just my way that i am comfortable with and by no means is it written in stone. I think my numbers are correct and if not somone can correct me.

Hope that helps a little.

so, i've been playing around with my own Labby and i discovered something that I can't figure out.
So say i had 5-5-5...i played 10 and i won...so now all i have left is 5...
question1) do i now bet 5?
question2) what happens if i lose that bet now? do i double up which would give me 10? couldn't this get potentially dangerous if i went on a losing streak?

[dominate.]

Checking in

[arizona40]

so, i've been playing around with my own Labby and i discovered something that I can't figure out.
So say i had 5-5-5...i played 10 and i won...so now all i have left is 5...
question1) do i now bet 5?
question2) what happens if i lose that bet now? do i double up which would give me 10? couldn't this get potentially dangerous if i went on a losing streak?

TNM, answer to your questions, you are correct you would just bet 5 and also you are correct that if you went on a long losing streak it would get kind of scary, however, there is no written rule with regard to labby's.

If you feel that you are in one of these losing streaks on a short line, just add another number and average out between the two.

For example:

You get to x-x-5-x-x

and lose 4 games in a row and you notice now it looks like

x-x-40-x-x

add another number or even 2 numbers if you like and average it out.

so like this 13.34-13.34-13.34

Next bet would be to win 26.68 instead of 40. All this does is make it so you would have to win 1 extra game to clear the line.

The downside is because you have reshuffled like this your amount of units that you have won would be a little lower than a normal line, but not much.

Hope this helps for you