[Stifler]

First year playing those systems, backtested for the last 6 years, numbers look good - still no guarantee this year will be the same...but i will give it a try. All systems will be 4 game chases.

Systems 1 (S1): Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 or more and this streak gets broken skip the next 2 games after the streak-breaking game and follow that streak. Divide the games in home and road games (an overlapping streak doesnt count)

e.g. WWWL(Streak broken)WL(both games skipping) - next game start the chase (all games have to be either home or road games)


Systems 2 (S2): Whenever a team has a winning or losing streak of 3 or more and this streak gets broken start the chase after the streak breaking game. Divide the games in home and road games (an overlapping streak doesnt count)

e.g. WWWL(Streak broken) - next game start the chase (all games have to be either home or road games)


System 3 (S3): Whenever a teams starts a home-trip and the odds are under +100 in the first game start the chase. Whenever a team starts a road-trip and the odds are +100 or higher in the first game start the chase and fade that team.

_____________________________

Only play the following teams on the systems:

S1:
NY Yankees (only winning streaks)
Kansas City (only losing streaks)
Pittsburg (only losing streaks)
St. louis (only losing streaks)
San Diego (only losing streaks)

S2:
Philadelphia
San Francisco (only winning streaks)
Arizona (only losing streaks)

S3:
NY Yankees
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Boston
Toronto
Chicago White Sox
Detroit
LA Angels
Oakland
Texas
Chicago Cubs
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
St. Louis
San Diego
San Francisco

_____________________________

Records:

2006: 309-5 (+ 196,53 units)
2007: 337-9 (+ 127,63 units)
2008: 327-8 (+ 117,16 units)
2009: 348-2 (+ 315,54 units)
2010: 335-5 (+ 184,09 units)
2011: 334-6 (+ 222,65 units)_____
overall: 1990-35 (+ 1163,60 units)


all the records for the teams and all records for 1.Game, 2.Game, 3.Game, 4.Game also available.

[greenhippo]

Looks like you put some hell of an amount of work with this. If you keep a running update I'm sure to follow along pretty soon.

[riffraff24]

Wow interesting. Thanks for sharing

[Stifler]

yeah cant deny i put some time in it, but all that matters in the end is keeping those numbers.

Is any team going to a have a major letdown or is there any team who can surprisingly do well compared to the last season? e.g. Minnesota record 2010 was 94-68, 2011 they just had 63-99. I know nobody can tell what the teams will exactly do in the season, but if there is any team who is up to a lets say 30 win difference compared to the past season please let me know.

And yes i will keep a daily record in this thread and post all games here.

[Stifler]

btw there are other teams who showed profit over the 6 years, Minnesota S3 was pretty good aswell, but im not touching them due to the letdown last year. I just filterd the teams who showed extremly good numbers and constance over the 6 years.

[greenhippo]

I don't think you'll see a swing like the Twins this next year, but if I had to be wary of one team it'd be Arizona. If they went from 94 wins last year to 74 this year, I wouldn't blink an eye.

[skjjb4]

I will be watching this thread. Thanks

[tcarn01]

interesting. let's see how this goes..

[Elysee26]

Just curious, the teams you are following in S1 with losing streaks (i.e. Kansas City) are you fading them for the chase or better them to win?

BOL...

[njb5572]

Wow, sounds very interesting. I would love to see the breakdowns of these systems that you said you had available. Those numbers are impressive, but like you mentioned, susceptible to possible variance. I think showing the forum the numbers would also help to garner more cred! Let me know what I need to do to get my hands on them!

Showing some series losses and maybe a breakdown of the 3 systems themselves would be very informative as it would give your systems followers an accurate indication of what percentage of their bankroll they should risk to win per chase.

[Stifler]

Just curious, the teams you are following in S1 with losing streaks (i.e. Kansas City) are you fading them for the chase or better them to win?

BOL...

i am following the streak, means i will fade them when the chase starts.

[Stifler]

Wow, sounds very interesting. I would love to see the breakdowns of these systems that you said you had available. Those numbers are impressive, but like you mentioned, susceptible to possible variance. I think showing the forum the numbers would also help to garner more cred! Let me know what I need to do to get my hands on them!

Showing some series losses and maybe a breakdown of the 3 systems themselves would be very informative as it would give your systems followers an accurate indication of what percentage of their bankroll they should risk to win per chase.

i will post a screen with all the overall records over the 6 years. I will also post the units lost for the 6 series lost of 2011 (if more needed i can provide the other years aswell). Will do this later today, when i am @ home. As far as i can tell a series lost cost around 20-40 units.

Good way to reduce juice on the D bet is to parlay it with a pretty save soccer bet (im probably making this if i feel like that way). But long way to go before such a situation comes in (hopefully).

[Stifler]

all records here:

system records3.jpg

for 2011 these 6 series were lost:

1. San Francisco (S3) -13,0120 units
2. St. Louis (S3) -17,6391 units
3. Pittsburgh (S3) -25,1590 units
4. Chicago White Sox (S3) -16,3131 units
5. Tampa Bay (S3) -32,8800 units
6. NYY (S1 only W-streaks) -6,3500 units

[CappinTerp]

Good luck with the system. Not sure I fully understand it but seems one is exposed to a lot of risk.

[Duby]

Quick question for system 3:

Let's say Baltimore starts a series at Boston and Boston game 1 are -220. Would you start two chases here?

1-Backing Boston
2-Fading Baltimore


Thanks and results looking good

[Duby]

Another quickie,

What is your definition of home stand/road trip? 4 games?

Thanks again!

[Stifler]

Quick question for system 3:

Let's say Baltimore starts a series at Boston and Boston game 1 are -220. Would you start two chases here?

1-Backing Boston
2-Fading Baltimore

yeah for the system these are 2 games. Especially in the beginnig this could happen, maybe i will just play it as one game and counting it for 2 series but i will see then.

What is your definition of home stand/road trip? 4 games?

they need to have atleast 4 games on the road / or @ home to qualify for a system bet. Means if a team starts a 3 game road trip and the odds in the first game are +100 or more they are not a system game, cause there are just 3 road games being played in a row. If they had 4 games they would qualify ofc.

[Duby]

Thanks for the quick reply. Sounds good to me!

[needmoney]

hi, i have some questions:
- do you use a labby line?
- are you going to post how much do you bet on each game, and are you going to say the "win amount"?

I am very interested in this system, as i think you have seen very good results, but i still dont knoiw exactly how it works.

Thanks!

[Stifler]

- no labby lines, just standard chase
- i will always post the units im going to risk on the game. The "win amount" is obviously the lost amount on the previous bets +1 unit. Im always going to play to win 1 unit for a series.

example: (just an example with consistent lines)
A Bet line -170 , risk 1,7u to win 1u
game lost, it moves to B bet
B Bet line -170 , risk 4,59u to win 2,7u
game lost, it moves to C bet
C Bet line -170 , risk 12,40u to win 7,29u
game lost, it moves to D bet
D Bet line -170 , risk 33,49u to win 19,69u
if D Bet is losing then -52,18 units overall, if D Bet wins (or any other) u win 1 unit


Im going to place all wagers with pinnacle, but i will just post european lines.

[wade1]

I tried somting like S1 last year, had pretty good luck

[Stifler]

04.04.2012

S3

(A Bet) Stl fade: Miami 1,595 1,68u

[nadroke]

i'm really wait for real test this system, GL

[Stifler]

05.04.2012

S3

(A Bet) Det: Detroit 1,741 1,35u
(A Bet) Bos fade: Detroit 1,741 1,35u
(A Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,676 1,48u

like i said it is possible that 1 game fits to 2 system plays, especially in the beginning (1. Detroit with <+100 odds in the first game and 2. Boston with >= +100 odds on the road).

[tar_baby]

thanks so much for this system! Looking forward to it.

[njb5572]

05.04.2012

S3

(A Bet) Det: Detroit 1,741 1,35u
(A Bet) Bos fade: Detroit 1,741 1,35u
(A Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,676 1,48u

like i said it is possible that 1 game fits to 2 system plays, especially in the beginning (1. Detroit with <+100 odds in the first game and 2. Boston with >= +100 odds on the road).

I am unfamiliar with european lines, what is the number after the team and before the units played?

[Stifler]

these are the eurpean lines.

1,741 = -135 american odds

if u would put 100 $ on european line u just have to multiply ur risk amout with the odds (1,741) and u would get the outcome. Means u win 174,10 $ (risk amount included)

here is an odds calculator to make it much easier:

http://www.onlinegambling.com/sports...alculators.htm

[Stifler]

04.04.2012

S3

(A Bet) Stl fade: Miami 1,595 1,68u | (B Bet) on 06.04.2012

records:
S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)

pending:
S3 Detroit (A Bet) 05.04.2012
S3 fade Boston (A Bet) 05.04.2012
S3 Cincinnati (A Bet) 05.04.2012
S3 St.Louis fade (B Bet) 06.04.2012

[Stifler]

06.04.2012

S3

(B Bet) Stl fade: Miami 1,595 1,68u | Milwaukee waiting on a better line
(A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,575 1,74u
(A Bet) CHW fade: Texas 1,575 1,74u
(A Bet) Balti: Baltimore 1,752 1,33u
(A Bet) SF fade: if line falls under +100 no play...also waiting here

[dominate.]

Do you by any chance have the hit% for each bet?

For example:
A bet - 50%
B bet - 60%
C bet - 70%
D bet - 80%

[Stifler]

doublepost

[Stifler]

i posted a link with all records a few posts above.

But here are the records overall from 2006-2011

S1
A Bet:190-128
B Bet: 71-57
C Bet: 37-20
D Bet: 13-7

S2
A Bet: 123-98
B Bet: 53-45
C Bet: 24-21
D Bet: 16-5

S3
A Bet: 876-610
B Bet: 361-249
C Bet: 161-88
D Bet: 65-23

[nadroke]

so, that is crazy 1990-35, great score anyway, I will follow you GL

[nadroke]

Do you by any chance have the hit% for each bet?

For example:
A bet - 50%
B bet - 60%
C bet - 70%
D bet - 80%

From this what Stifler shared with us I think this is:

S1
A Bet: 60%
B Bet: 84%
C Bet: 93%
D Bet: 98%

S2
A Bet: 56%
B Bet: 83%
C Bet: 93%
D Bet: 96%

S3
A Bet: 59%
B Bet: 83%
C Bet: 93%
D Bet: 97%

again VERY impressive :P

[Stifler]

weird numbers u got there, im sure he wants to know these winning percentages: (e.g. S1 had 318 A Bets, 190 wins makes it 59,75% winning percentage)

S1
A Bet:190-128 (59,75%)
B Bet: 71-57 (55,47%)
C Bet: 37-20 (64,91%)
D Bet: 13-7 (65%)

S2
A Bet: 123-98 (55,66%)
B Bet: 53-45 (54,08%)
C Bet: 24-21 (53,33%)
D Bet: 16-5 (76,19%)

S3
A Bet: 876-610 (58,95%)
B Bet: 361-249 (59,18%)
C Bet: 161-88 (64,66%)
D Bet: 65-23 (73,86%)