3 chase systems

**greenhippo** · 03-18-12, 02:04 PM

Looks like you put some hell of an amount of work with this. If you keep a running update I'm sure to follow along pretty soon.

**riffraff24** · 03-18-12, 02:39 PM

Wow interesting. Thanks for sharing

**Stifler** · 03-18-12, 03:10 PM

yeah cant deny i put some time in it, but all that matters in the end is keeping those numbers.

Is any team going to a have a major letdown or is there any team who can surprisingly do well compared to the last season? e.g. Minnesota record 2010 was 94-68, 2011 they just had 63-99. I know nobody can tell what the teams will exactly do in the season, but if there is any team who is up to a lets say 30 win difference compared to the past season please let me know.

And yes i will keep a daily record in this thread and post all games here.

**Stifler** · 03-18-12, 03:14 PM

btw there are other teams who showed profit over the 6 years, Minnesota S3 was pretty good aswell, but im not touching them due to the letdown last year. I just filterd the teams who showed extremly good numbers and constance over the 6 years.

**greenhippo** · 03-18-12, 03:56 PM

I don't think you'll see a swing like the Twins this next year, but if I had to be wary of one team it'd be Arizona. If they went from 94 wins last year to 74 this year, I wouldn't blink an eye.

**skjjb4** · 03-19-12, 12:04 AM

I will be watching this thread. Thanks

**tcarn01** · 03-19-12, 09:02 AM

interesting. let's see how this goes..

**Elysee26** · 03-19-12, 06:46 PM

Just curious, the teams you are following in S1 with losing streaks (i.e. Kansas City) are you fading them for the chase or better them to win?

BOL...

**njb5572** · 03-19-12, 09:01 PM

Wow, sounds very interesting. I would love to see the breakdowns of these systems that you said you had available. Those numbers are impressive, but like you mentioned, susceptible to possible variance. I think showing the forum the numbers would also help to garner more cred! Let me know what I need to do to get my hands on them!

Showing some series losses and maybe a breakdown of the 3 systems themselves would be very informative as it would give your systems followers an accurate indication of what percentage of their bankroll they should risk to win per chase.

**Stifler** · 03-20-12, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by Elysee26

Just curious, the teams you are following in S1 with losing streaks (i.e. Kansas City) are you fading them for the chase or better them to win?

BOL...

i am following the streak, means i will fade them when the chase starts.

**Stifler** · 03-20-12, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by njb5572

Wow, sounds very interesting. I would love to see the breakdowns of these systems that you said you had available. Those numbers are impressive, but like you mentioned, susceptible to possible variance. I think showing the forum the numbers would also help to garner more cred! Let me know what I need to do to get my hands on them!

Showing some series losses and maybe a breakdown of the 3 systems themselves would be very informative as it would give your systems followers an accurate indication of what percentage of their bankroll they should risk to win per chase.

i will post a screen with all the overall records over the 6 years. I will also post the units lost for the 6 series lost of 2011 (if more needed i can provide the other years aswell). Will do this later today, when i am @ home. As far as i can tell a series lost cost around 20-40 units.

Good way to reduce juice on the D bet is to parlay it with a pretty save soccer bet (im probably making this if i feel like that way). But long way to go before such a situation comes in (hopefully).

**Stifler** · 03-20-12, 02:17 PM

all records here:

for 2011 these 6 series were lost:

1. San Francisco (S3) -13,0120 units
2. St. Louis (S3) -17,6391 units
3. Pittsburgh (S3) -25,1590 units
4. Chicago White Sox (S3) -16,3131 units
5. Tampa Bay (S3) -32,8800 units
6. NYY (S1 only W-streaks) -6,3500 units

Attached Files

**CappinTerp** · 03-20-12, 05:10 PM

Good luck with the system. Not sure I fully understand it but seems one is exposed to a lot of risk.

**Duby** · 03-21-12, 05:24 AM

Quick question for system 3:

Let's say Baltimore starts a series at Boston and Boston game 1 are -220. Would you start two chases here?

1-Backing Boston
2-Fading Baltimore

Thanks and results looking good

**Duby** · 03-21-12, 08:53 AM

Another quickie,

What is your definition of home stand/road trip? 4 games?

Thanks again!

**Stifler** · 03-21-12, 12:21 PM

Originally posted by Duby

Quick question for system 3:

Let's say Baltimore starts a series at Boston and Boston game 1 are -220. Would you start two chases here?

1-Backing Boston
2-Fading Baltimore

yeah for the system these are 2 games. Especially in the beginnig this could happen, maybe i will just play it as one game and counting it for 2 series but i will see then.

What is your definition of home stand/road trip? 4 games?

they need to have atleast 4 games on the road / or @ home to qualify for a system bet. Means if a team starts a 3 game road trip and the odds in the first game are +100 or more they are not a system game, cause there are just 3 road games being played in a row. If they had 4 games they would qualify ofc.

**Duby** · 03-21-12, 12:51 PM

Thanks for the quick reply. Sounds good to me!

**needmoney** · 03-26-12, 06:42 PM

hi, i have some questions:
- do you use a labby line?
- are you going to post how much do you bet on each game, and are you going to say the "win amount"?

I am very interested in this system, as i think you have seen very good results, but i still dont knoiw exactly how it works.

Thanks!

**Stifler** · 03-27-12, 02:54 PM

- no labby lines, just standard chase
- i will always post the units im going to risk on the game. The "win amount" is obviously the lost amount on the previous bets +1 unit. Im always going to play to win 1 unit for a series.

example: (just an example with consistent lines)
A Bet line -170 , risk 1,7u to win 1u
game lost, it moves to B bet
B Bet line -170 , risk 4,59u to win 2,7u
game lost, it moves to C bet
C Bet line -170 , risk 12,40u to win 7,29u
game lost, it moves to D bet
D Bet line -170 , risk 33,49u to win 19,69u
if D Bet is losing then -52,18 units overall, if D Bet wins (or any other) u win 1 unit

Im going to place all wagers with pinnacle, but i will just post european lines.

**wade1** · 03-27-12, 03:50 PM

I tried somting like S1 last year, had pretty good luck

**Stifler** · 04-03-12, 04:07 PM

04.04.2012

S3

(A Bet) Stl fade: Miami 1,595 1,68u

**nadroke** · 04-03-12, 06:14 PM

i'm really wait for real test this system, GL

**Stifler** · 04-04-12, 04:37 AM

05.04.2012

S3

(A Bet) Det: Detroit 1,741 1,35u
(A Bet) Bos fade: Detroit 1,741 1,35u
(A Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,676 1,48u

like i said it is possible that 1 game fits to 2 system plays, especially in the beginning (1. Detroit with <+100 odds in the first game and 2. Boston with >= +100 odds on the road).

**tar_baby** · 04-04-12, 09:42 AM

thanks so much for this system! Looking forward to it.

**njb5572** · 04-04-12, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by Stifler

05.04.2012

S3

(A Bet) Det: Detroit 1,741 1,35u
(A Bet) Bos fade: Detroit 1,741 1,35u
(A Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,676 1,48u

like i said it is possible that 1 game fits to 2 system plays, especially in the beginning (1. Detroit with <+100 odds in the first game and 2. Boston with >= +100 odds on the road).

I am unfamiliar with european lines, what is the number after the team and before the units played?

**Stifler** · 04-04-12, 01:33 PM

these are the eurpean lines.

1,741 = -135 american odds

if u would put 100 $ on european line u just have to multiply ur risk amout with the odds (1,741) and u would get the outcome. Means u win 174,10 $ (risk amount included)

here is an odds calculator to make it much easier:

Sports Betting Lines Explained & How to Read Them

http://www.onlinegambling.com/sports/odds-converter-calculators.htm

Learn About Betting Lines - Our sports betting experts explain what betting lines are, how they work & how to use them to bet on your favorite sports.

**Stifler** · 04-05-12, 02:38 AM

04.04.2012

S3

(A Bet) Stl fade: Miami 1,595 1,68u | (B Bet) on 06.04.2012

records:
S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)

pending:
S3 Detroit (A Bet) 05.04.2012
S3 fade Boston (A Bet) 05.04.2012
S3 Cincinnati (A Bet) 05.04.2012
S3 St.Louis fade (B Bet) 06.04.2012

**Stifler** · 04-05-12, 04:00 PM

06.04.2012

S3

(B Bet) Stl fade: Miami 1,595 1,68u | Milwaukee waiting on a better line
(A Bet) Tex: Texas 1,575 1,74u
(A Bet) CHW fade: Texas 1,575 1,74u
(A Bet) Balti: Baltimore 1,752 1,33u
(A Bet) SF fade: if line falls under +100 no play...also waiting here

**dominate.** · 04-05-12, 04:29 PM

Do you by any chance have the hit% for each bet?

For example:
A bet - 50%
B bet - 60%
C bet - 70%
D bet - 80%

**Stifler** · 04-05-12, 04:39 PM

doublepost

**Stifler** · 04-05-12, 04:43 PM

i posted a link with all records a few posts above.

But here are the records overall from 2006-2011

S1
A Bet:190-128
B Bet: 71-57
C Bet: 37-20
D Bet: 13-7

S2
A Bet: 123-98
B Bet: 53-45
C Bet: 24-21
D Bet: 16-5

S3
A Bet: 876-610
B Bet: 361-249
C Bet: 161-88
D Bet: 65-23

**nadroke** · 04-05-12, 06:00 PM

so, that is crazy 1990-35, great score anyway, I will follow you

GL

**nadroke** · 04-05-12, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by dominate.

Do you by any chance have the hit% for each bet?

For example:
A bet - 50%
B bet - 60%
C bet - 70%
D bet - 80%

From this what Stifler shared with us I think this is:

S1
A Bet: 60%
B Bet: 84%
C Bet: 93%
D Bet: 98%

S2
A Bet: 56%
B Bet: 83%
C Bet: 93%
D Bet: 96%

S3
A Bet: 59%
B Bet: 83%
C Bet: 93%
D Bet: 97%

again VERY impressive :P

**Stifler** · 04-05-12, 07:08 PM

http://forum.sbrforum.com/newreply.php?do=newreply&noquote=1&a mp;p=141 58207

weird numbers u got there, im sure he wants to know these winning percentages: (e.g. S1 had 318 A Bets, 190 wins makes it 59,75% winning percentage)

S1
A Bet:190-128 (59,75%)
B Bet: 71-57 (55,47%)
C Bet: 37-20 (64,91%)
D Bet: 13-7 (65%)

S2
A Bet: 123-98 (55,66%)
B Bet: 53-45 (54,08%)
C Bet: 24-21 (53,33%)
D Bet: 16-5 (76,19%)

S3
A Bet: 876-610 (58,95%)
B Bet: 361-249 (59,18%)
C Bet: 161-88 (64,66%)
D Bet: 65-23 (73,86%)