Stacocakes Australian Open Thread
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GeeSBR MVP
- 04-08-10
- 4547
#876Comment -
MUHerd37SBR Posting Legend
- 10-23-09
- 12816
#878Soderling up 2 breaks in the 4th set. Dolgopolov bet that the match would go 5 sets. Did you?Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#880Today was a day where I bet a lot of chalk parlayers might get killed. Only solid way to get a payout would be to take at least three of the big men's favorites .... and that's a recipe for disaster.Comment -
MUHerd37SBR Posting Legend
- 10-23-09
- 12816
#881I have money on Soderling as well. He just won the 4th set. Hopefully he can get it done. I might go huge on Nadal. I really want to but I'm also nervous as hell.Comment -
MUHerd37SBR Posting Legend
- 10-23-09
- 12816
#882Soderling got an early break in the 5th. Prolly gonna need 1 more tho.Comment -
MUHerd37SBR Posting Legend
- 10-23-09
- 12816
#883Broken right back at love. Jackass.Comment -
GeeSBR MVP
- 04-08-10
- 4547
#884
now he's about to go a break down in the last, after being a break up
I left Nadal out is because he didn't come in fit, its getting later in the tournament, cilic is no joke and Nadal hasn't looked fit.Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#885You should never go huge on a tennis bet, ever. Seriously.Comment -
MUHerd37SBR Posting Legend
- 10-23-09
- 12816
#886I really feel like Nadal is fit enough to beat Cilic. It took Cilic 5 sets to beat Isner who can't move around the court at all. If he gets up early I think Cilic will break mentally like he always does. Soderling down a break now. Dolgo is getting just about every shot back and making Soderling struggle. Soderling having a hell of a time to get anything past him.Comment -
MUHerd37SBR Posting Legend
- 10-23-09
- 12816
#887I would never go huge on a tennis match except in a major. Also, only with certain players.Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#888Even in a Slam, there is no point to going BIG. Fixes. Injuries. Poor play. Happen all the time. Tennis betting more so than all other sports IMO, you stay with the same wager size all the time and you'll be okay. All it takes is one time going BIG on chalk and you fukk yourself.Comment -
GeeSBR MVP
- 04-08-10
- 4547
#889Even in a Slam, there is no point to going BIG. Fixes. Injuries. Poor play. Happen all the time. Tennis betting more so than all other sports IMO, you stay with the same wager size all the time and you'll be okay. All it takes is one time going BIG on chalk and you fukk yourself.Comment -
MUHerd37SBR Posting Legend
- 10-23-09
- 12816
#890Yeah obviously fukking myself is what I'm worried about. With the Nadal match I'm not worried about match fixing at all. Poor play I'm not totally worried about because the majors are what it's all about for Nadal. This is also the only major that he doesn't hold right now and he has said that it's really important for him to do that and this may be his only chance. The injury is what I'm most worried about. He might be coming in a little sick and of course you could always get hurt during a match. Nadal is at -770 and it's really tempting.Comment -
GeeSBR MVP
- 04-08-10
- 4547
#891MUherd: the important question I ask myself before laying that kind of juice is how I would feel if I had $700 less in my account.
If the thought makes me sick, i don't make the bet. Make sure you don't play at a book that DOESN'T count it as action after the first set and requires the match to be completed (i know most American books grade action after a set, but Aus/Europe don't!Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#892I said it before, a lot of people riding Cilic to pull the upset but I don't think people are thinking enough about how taxing his last match was ... they're caught up in the Nadal not 100% angle perhaps ... Cilic on the handicap might be a play, but ML it's been banging so hard, that there is only a small chance that it hits I think. Too many people on it. Of course part of it was the line was too high to begin with.Comment -
shari91BARRELED IN @ SBR!
- 02-23-10
- 32661
#893MU, my advice is a bit different because I bet relatively large amounts somewhat regularily and I vary my bet sizes ie I had a handicap play today for a certain amount and took the ML for about two thirds less. However I rarely bet large on chalk and definitely not on big chalk. And if my big bet loses, I can absorb the loss as it's never a huge percentage of the cash i have available for betting. If this huge bet won't kill you and you've done the research, then I say go for it as long as you're aware of the many risks involved.
Definitely don't listen to any of us though - it's not our money. Best of luck whatever you decide to do.Comment -
StacocakesSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-10-08
- 7126
#894Just getting in now guys.Can't believe Soderling lost. There goes my outright geez
Have no plays for today. I agree with you guys that the lines were a little to big today to take a change with anyone.
Still to come we have rafa and Ferrer matches. Nadal is to big to bet and Ferrer is also to big. I've noticed that the Ferrer line is coming down a bit so it looks like some people are going to take their chances on Raonic pulling an upset. I could see this happening.You never know really.If I am backing someone at -400 I want it to be rafa and not David Ferrer. I've always liked Ferrer though don't get me wrong. Just wouldn't bet him as a big fav
Left for the ladies is Clijsters who has another massive price. PassComment -
StacocakesSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-10-08
- 7126
#895Have to also remember with Cilic that he is like Gulbis and one of the most inconsistant players on tour. If he came out and lost 61 62 60 to Rafa today I wouldn't sit here and be shocked. Can be either really good or really bad. If you had to bet on someone in the match you would have to put your money on a 75% Nadal over a Jekyll and Hyde player like Cilic.Comment -
StacocakesSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-10-08
- 7126
#896Murray playing some great tennis wowComment -
StacocakesSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-10-08
- 7126
#897Break Raonic wow. Playing some great tennis at the netComment -
JOHON8SBR Hall of Famer
- 01-28-10
- 7712
#898Worth taking Ferrer at -200 or waiting for this Canadian kid to go farther?Comment -
GeeSBR MVP
- 04-08-10
- 4547
#899Just getting in now guys.Can't believe Soderling lost. There goes my outright geez Have no plays for today. I agree with you guys that the lines were a little to big today to take a change with anyone. Still to come we have rafa and Ferrer matches. Nadal is to big to bet and Ferrer is also to big. I've noticed that the Ferrer line is coming down a bit so it looks like some people are going to take their chances on Raonic pulling an upset. I could see this happening.You never know really.If I am backing someone at -400 I want it to be rafa and not David Ferrer. I've always liked Ferrer though don't get me wrong. Just wouldn't bet him as a big fav Left for the ladies is Clijsters who has another massive price. Passand he consolidates the break!!
must have been a wild first 8 games. Raonic: 16 winners, 16 unforced errors.Comment -
StacocakesSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-10-08
- 7126
#900I wouldn't take Ferrer live right now he is being blasted off the court. Might still win the match in the end but he shouldn't be taken at big oddsComment -
StacocakesSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-10-08
- 7126
#901Brad gilbert is basically jerking off Raonic right now. It's funny
His touch at the net is amazing. I remember seeing Raonic play Gonzalez in the first round in the canadian open and he almost beat Fernando.Could tell at that time that there was at least something there with himComment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#902Do they ever know which name is the first name for the Chines broads? Shau Peng, they call her Peng Shua. Na Li, they call her Li Na. WTF?Comment -
StacocakesSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-10-08
- 7126
#903Who knows.I have heard it both ways for each of them. I have no clue. I have always thought it was Li Na and Shau Peng.
Radwanska is looking damn good today. The hat is a better look for her because it hides a bit of her faceComment -
MUHerd37SBR Posting Legend
- 10-23-09
- 12816
#90428 unforced errors by Raonic and only 1 by Ferrer??? And Ferrer is losing? BP Ferrer thoComment -
MUHerd37SBR Posting Legend
- 10-23-09
- 12816
#905Nadal line is up to -807Comment -
EaglesPhan36SBR Aristocracy
- 12-06-06
- 71662
#906What's great about these upsets or close calls is it is keeping the lines in-check now. Djokovic is pretty tame and Federer even at -415 is tame against Wawrinka. I'm guessing quite a few will try Wawrinka because he beat up Roddick.Comment -
MUHerd37SBR Posting Legend
- 10-23-09
- 12816
#907Ferrer finally broke himComment -
StacocakesSBR Hall of Famer
- 04-10-08
- 7126
#908Break FerrerComment -
GeeSBR MVP
- 04-08-10
- 4547
#909
I deal with a quite a few vietnamese people in my work and i can never friggin' figure out which way round to say their name - they write it one way, the papers say something else and they introduce themselves by a different nameComment -
MUHerd37SBR Posting Legend
- 10-23-09
- 12816
#910Why the hell is Wozniacki -800 over Schiavone? I know Schiavone just played a marathon but damn! Seems like it should be a matchup that scares Wozi.Comment
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