Noober's tennis picks

**noober** · 07-20-10, 01:18 AM

yesterday was a tough day: 0-4 for -4 units
so far: 29-38 for +.05 units

**Brian891** · 07-20-10, 01:33 AM

I sent u some points noober even tho im not sure if u use em. Wanted to thank you. I parlayed makarova and olaru ml based on your writeups because bookmaker didnt have handicap odds before i went to bed. Olaru won, and her match was so early, i was able to hedge the parlay and make a 40 dollar profit regardless of who won! Thanks again for all your contributions to this forum! It felt so good to know i was going to profit regardless of outcome. it was like a solar eclipse!

**noober** · 07-20-10, 02:28 AM

Originally posted by Brian891

I sent u some points noober even tho im not sure if u use em. Wanted to thank you. I parlayed makarova and olaru ml based on your writeups because bookmaker didnt have handicap odds before i went to bed. Olaru won, and her match was so early, i was able to hedge the parlay and make a 40 dollar profit regardless of who won! Thanks again for all your contributions to this forum! It felt so good to know i was going to profit regardless of outcome. it was like a solar eclipse!

Thanks for the points. Nice to hear you made a profit in a day where my predictions were bad.

**noober** · 07-20-10, 03:03 AM

Plays for today:

Eduardo Schwank -2 over Tobias Kamke at 1.971 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 58.5%

I just don’t see a reason why these two are priced at close to even odds when the talent and skills the two have are at a complete different level. Kamke is more of a challenger player and has very limited experience playing on the ATP tour. He just had a very good run at this year’s French Open and Wimbledon. He passed the quallies at both and made the third round on the grass and second on the dirt. He beat good players like Garcia Lopez and Seppi, but that’s about it. Last week he got back to the challenger tour and lost in the quarterfinal to Gremelmayer in two easy sets. Schwank, on the other hand, is on a five game losing streak but if you look at it closely it doesn’t mean much. Two of these losses were on grass (his worst surface), one was a retirement, another was to Davydenko in Davis Cup, and last week he lost to Chela, who is one of the best on clay. Kamke will have the home court advantage but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the Argentine. I am playing the handicap, because I think 2 games is not that much and most likely Schwank wins in two sets. However, if you want to play it safe he is at 1.8 on the moneyline.

Tomy Robredo -2 over Potito Starace at 1.943 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 58.5%

Once again, I see two players at a completely different level priced close to even odds. Robredo is a world class player with wins over all the top players and huge experience on clay courts. Last week, he won against a top 10 player – Fernando Verdasco. Then, he got destroyed by the eventual champion Nicolas Almagto in the semifinal. Starace also plays his best tennis on clay and it’s undeniable that he had a very good summer season. However, most of his wins were on the challenger tour where the competition is much weaker. It’s important to note that the two have met 5 times in the past and Robredo have won all of the times. So there is no reason not to lay the Italian at the current odds. Again, I am playing the handicap as I strongly believe Robredo wins in two sets. The moneyline here is at 1.752.

Masha Zec Peskiric over Anastasia Yakimova at 2.68 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 45%

Zec Peskiric has been playing well as of late and this is her favorite tournament so she will definitely try her best to win this one. Last week, she got a very good win over Para Santonja and then played a very even match against Romina Oprandi. She is ranked around 140 but so is her opponent. Neither has much experience on the WTA tour and so this should be a toss up. Yakimova has relatively more experience, but the home court advantage should even it up.

Good Luck.

**noober** · 07-20-10, 07:17 AM

Interesting that the odds on Zec Peskiric are rising to almost 3. Could be something fishy because there is no way Yakimova is such a big fav against her.

**noober** · 07-21-10, 01:32 AM

Originally posted by noober

Plays for today:

Eduardo Schwank -2 over Tobias Kamke at 1.971 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 58.5%

I just don’t see a reason why these two are priced at close to even odds when the talent and skills the two have are at a complete different level. Kamke is more of a challenger player and has very limited experience playing on the ATP tour. He just had a very good run at this year’s French Open and Wimbledon. He passed the quallies at both and made the third round on the grass and second on the dirt. He beat good players like Garcia Lopez and Seppi, but that’s about it. Last week he got back to the challenger tour and lost in the quarterfinal to Gremelmayer in two easy sets. Schwank, on the other hand, is on a five game losing streak but if you look at it closely it doesn’t mean much. Two of these losses were on grass (his worst surface), one was a retirement, another was to Davydenko in Davis Cup, and last week he lost to Chela, who is one of the best on clay. Kamke will have the home court advantage but I don’t think it will be enough to overcome the Argentine. I am playing the handicap, because I think 2 games is not that much and most likely Schwank wins in two sets. However, if you want to play it safe he is at 1.8 on the moneyline.

Tomy Robredo -2 over Potito Starace at 1.943 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 58.5%

Once again, I see two players at a completely different level priced close to even odds. Robredo is a world class player with wins over all the top players and huge experience on clay courts. Last week, he won against a top 10 player – Fernando Verdasco. Then, he got destroyed by the eventual champion Nicolas Almagto in the semifinal. Starace also plays his best tennis on clay and it’s undeniable that he had a very good summer season. However, most of his wins were on the challenger tour where the competition is much weaker. It’s important to note that the two have met 5 times in the past and Robredo have won all of the times. So there is no reason not to lay the Italian at the current odds. Again, I am playing the handicap as I strongly believe Robredo wins in two sets. The moneyline here is at 1.752.

Masha Zec Peskiric over Anastasia Yakimova at 2.68 (Pinnacle) 1 unit
Probability of winning: ~ 45%

Zec Peskiric has been playing well as of late and this is her favorite tournament so she will definitely try her best to win this one. Last week, she got a very good win over Para Santonja and then played a very even match against Romina Oprandi. She is ranked around 140 but so is her opponent. Neither has much experience on the WTA tour and so this should be a toss up. Yakimova has relatively more experience, but the home court advantage should even it up.

Good Luck.

Schwanks covers.
Robredo doesn't.
Zec Pesciric loses.

yesterday: 1-2 for -1.05 units
so far: 30- 40 for -1 units

**Brian891** · 07-21-10, 01:37 AM

Sorry bout the rough days. U are an excellent resource for newbies with your detailed writeups and i thank you. Any leans this morning? Lookin for opinions on sevastova, montanes, bellucci, seppi, and petzschner, or anyone else u think looks appealing. thanks again noober for yesterdays writeups!

**noober** · 07-21-10, 03:52 AM

Only one play today:

Hanescu -2.5 over Reister at 1.98 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 56%

Hanescu is a great clay courter and should have no trouble against an average German who prefers fast surfaces.

**noober** · 07-24-10, 02:56 AM

Originally posted by noober

Only one play today:

Hanescu -2.5 over Reister at 1.98 (Pinnacle) 1 unit

Probability: ~ 56%

Hanescu is a great clay courter and should have no trouble against an average German who prefers fast surfaces.

record: 30- 41 for -2 units

**noober** · 07-24-10, 02:58 AM

Today:

Florian Mayer over Golubev at 1.709 (Pinnacle) 1.5 units

**JW Cash** · 07-28-10, 07:51 PM

...noober, keep the faith, baby.............

**Brian891** · 07-28-10, 09:52 PM

JW your thread was awesome. Why did u stop posting?

**JW Cash** · 07-28-10, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by Brian891

JW your thread was awesome. Why did u stop posting?

Thanks Brian.....I appreciate it.....

At least, someone noticed.....

**Brian891** · 07-28-10, 11:54 PM

U were on a roll! I tailed u to some decent money. If ur ever in greenville sc meal is on me! Any plays for today?

**noober** · 07-29-10, 01:24 AM

record: 30-42 for -3.5 units

I am just taking the week off after going something like 3-12 in the last fifteen games. Will be back next week and hopefully hit the green soon.