Stacocakes Romes Masters Series thread

**JNic** · 04-25-10, 03:51 PM

im on the nadal outright also, GL

**Stacocakes** · 04-25-10, 04:16 PM

Good to hear JNic. Let's do this

Nadal outright has already moved to approx. -175. Seems that many are thinking the same thing

**MUHerd37** · 04-25-10, 08:53 PM

Not many matches to bet on yet.

**Stacocakes** · 04-25-10, 10:10 PM

I see two matches that I am going to bet:

Baghdatis +161 over Gulbis

Head to head Baghdatis is 4-0. Both players are nothing special on clay. Gulbis is the most inconsistant player in tennis so Baghdatis as a +161 dog might be something good to look at.

Monaco -128 over Andreev

Monaco is one of the better clay court players in tennis. He own's a 3-2 head to head record over Andreev, though Andreev has won 2 of the last 3 matches they have played. Going to go with the better clay court player in this one.

I don't see much else out there. As always some inflated lines. Don't see any real upsets or anything tomorrow morning.

Best of luck tomorrow guys

**JNic** · 04-25-10, 10:39 PM

couldnt agree more on those picks, 2 others i like are Isner +125 over Zeballos and Starace -170 over Hajek, it's faster clay so with positive odds gotta go with isner and Starace has homecourt and only lost first round once in last 5 years

**Stacocakes** · 04-25-10, 10:44 PM

Was just talking with someone else about tennis for tomorrow JNic and they liked the same two plays that you mentioned in Isner and Starace. Digging a bit deeper I saw that Hajek has won 3 of the last 4 matches with Starace, which were all on clay. Just something that would keep me away from personally betting on that match but I do agree that Isner is a live dog tomorrow. Zeballos isn't anything special and Isner isn't good on clay at all but as a +125 dog he might be worth a shot over Zeballos. Good luck tomorrow man on both plays

**Kav** · 04-26-10, 12:01 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

I see two matches that I am going to bet:

Baghdatis +161 over Gulbis

Head to head Baghdatis is 4-0. Both players are nothing special on clay. Gulbis is the most inconsistant player in tennis so Baghdatis as a +161 dog might be something good to look at.

Monaco -128 over Andreev

Monaco is one of the better clay court players in tennis. He own's a 3-2 head to head record over Andreev, though Andreev has won 2 of the last 3 matches they have played. Going to go with the better clay court player in this one.

I don't see much else out there. As always some inflated lines. Don't see any real upsets or anything tomorrow morning.

Best of luck tomorrow guys

i think the over in the monaco game is a better play IMO.

out of 5 of there matches, 4 have gone into 3 sets.

**michalis** · 04-26-10, 12:16 AM

ill have a stub at baghdatis

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-26-10, 12:58 AM

God help me, I'm on Andreev. Monaco has been beaten by worse in his last two losses. There was something I read last week somewhere about Monaco possibly having some sort of wrist injury - not something that obviously keeps him from playing, but more of a nagging thing. This is one of those spots where I could talk myself into taking Andreev at +115. Money just tipped heavy onto Andreev too as I now see him at even money.

**Stacocakes** · 04-26-10, 02:12 AM

Geez I see the line now for Monaco is dropping. Not exactly what I wanted to see. Guess i'll just have to see what happens. At least one of us will win Eagles haha

Do you guys have any outrights?

**heywoodu** · 04-26-10, 03:52 AM

If you dont mind Stacocakes, do you have a track record or something like that?
Just out of curiousity

**JNic** · 04-26-10, 06:31 AM

anybody know whats up with JCF, im really surprised to see him losing like this

**obie** · 04-26-10, 06:48 AM

Im already on JFC on liveodds. took him a 3,75 @ Bet365

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-26-10, 07:12 AM

I wrote about it last week when JCF blew his match against de Bakker. I really was surprised he didn't pull out of this week's event. I'm not sure if he's carrying some sort of injury, but I definitely believed he was fatigued. I think his early 2010 schedule with several weeks in a row of tournaments in South America caught up with him. A healthy.100% JCF NEVER loses to someone like Giraldo 6-0 in a set.

Lines moved back on Andreev-Monaco. I took my shot at Andreev at +120 this morning now. I'm a glutton for punishment because I don't think I'm ever on the right side of a Russian match, but the price at least doesn't rape me as hard when he flops.

**Stacocakes** · 04-26-10, 10:12 AM

Baghdatis goes down 62 62. Not a good start to the tournament.Surprised he lost so easily

JCF losing must be fatigue.Was very surprised to see this as well. Wasn't he a -800 favorite here or something like that?

Starace and Isner both win today. Good call on those guys JNic and Baum.

Juan Ignacio Chela loses 62 62 as a -250 favorite as well. Some surprising results today

**Stacocakes** · 04-26-10, 10:15 AM

First set Monaco in the tiebreak

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-26-10, 10:21 AM

JCF started as a -1000 or better favorite. I said it last week when he blew his match against de Bakker that I would be surprised if he played again before the French Open. Wish I would have listened to myself and taken a shot. Andreev plays his typical match. Opportunity to serve the set out and he screws the poodle. Baghdatis just isn't a good clay court player, no matter the odds. Gulbis has the much better form and has at least shown something on clay in the last year. Chela loss is very shocking to me, he'd been playing some of the better tennis of the clay court guys ... screwed my parlay early.

Won't be surprised if Andreev manages to win the 2nd set and then finds a way to painfully F up the third.

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-26-10, 10:35 AM

Hadn't seen any futures at 5Dimes for this tourney by the way Staco. Looking at the quarters, my take for whatever that is worth:

Feder Quarter: Fed might struggle just because he hasn't played much, but the top half where he's at doesn't have anything he cannot beat if he's playing well. The bottom is interesting with Cilic, Almagro & Ljubicic. Frankly. I'll be surprised if Cilic plays Fed in the quarters. Ljubicic might be a decent long shot out of this bracket if he plays well from Jump Street, otherwise you'd think Fed will make it.

Nadal Quarter: Nadal. If he plays Soderling, I would expect him to be the ever loving crap out of him as revenge from last year at the French. If he doesn't, then Soderling may start to get into his head like Nadal did with Federer.

Murray Quarter: I think this one belong to Ferrer or Tsonga. No way in hell Murray makes a deep run here IMO. He's a mess. If he's a true post-Federer mess, Seppi might even nip him in his first match, but I think Ferrer for sure in the next round. I bet some will be hot on de Bakker this week, but as a young player, I bet he'll find it difficult to match a deep run in consecutive tournaments. If Tsonga gets past him [assuming he beats Troicki], Tsonga gets to the QFs easy. I'd probably pick Ferrer in this quarter.

Djokovic Quarter: Djokovic looked like he was going to be in for a hot Spring before he got bounced badly by Verdasco in Monte Carlo. He doesn't have an easy draw with Bellucci down in his portion of the draw & even Isner could trouble him. Verdasco has to be full of confidence up top, but might be gassed. Still, his draw is easy to the quarters if he remains in top form. Probably Djokovic or Verdasco here.

Certainly, Nadal to win it all until someone steps up. I'd probably take Ferrer on the other side to make the final.

**Stacocakes** · 04-26-10, 11:09 AM

BP #6,534 for Monaco geez

Eagles agree with you completely.Federer is just saving it for the slams these days. Since Federer hasn't played to much I could even possibly see him losing before he would have to face Nadal. Whether or not that happens though I still think Nadal will beat Federer if the two meet at this tournament. It's Nadal's tournament to lose.

Murray will bow out early surely as well. Has no confidence right now and this is his worst surface so it's just setting up for another dissapointment at some point this week. Ever since he broke up with his gf he has just gone downhill. Not sure if that is the reason or the loss from the Australian Open might still be haunting him. Whatever it is he is a mess

I back Djokovic as outrights in most tournaments and he continually disapoints me. Jumping off the Djokovic train for this tournament. Has all the talent in the world but his head isn't into the game 100%. It's a shame.Figured he would have won alot more since his Australian Open win. Verdasco has to be fatigued so I can't see him getting far in this tournament.

Monaco got the break. Tied at 30-30 serving out the match. Nothing can ever be easy. Of course a bp for Andreev now geez

**JNic** · 04-26-10, 11:18 AM

im really surprised llodra is destroying beck, is this dude ever gonna turn it around?

**Kav** · 04-26-10, 11:30 AM

ferrero is a fag, he cost me my parlay! with the monaco over!

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-26-10, 11:39 AM

I officially today put Andreev on my no-fly list. I'm tired of wasting money on him be it as a favorite or an underdog just to see him blow opportunity after opportunity. Guy was up a break in both sets and had opportunities to close out and F-ed them up ... it just makes you question how "real" his matches are. To be up 6-5 after breaking Monaco and to then go down 0-40 in that next game and then to break Monaco to get back on serve at 5-5 in the 2nd and go up 40-0, only to lose that game? Something is always rotten in the state of Russia. I'd also recommend fading Monaco. Hanescu will probably give you a decent dog price in the next round possibly and that is usually where Hanescu excels at pulling off upsets.

**MUHerd37** · 04-26-10, 12:17 PM

Seems like there were a lot of upsets today.

**Stacocakes** · 04-26-10, 02:14 PM

1-1 on the day today. Hit the monaco win but lost on Baghdatis. At least the favorite bet won so it was just a wash today.

Ya lots of upsets today. Benneteau beat Querrey in three sets. I believe Benneteau was around +200 or so wasnt he? Montanes was around -400 I believe and he lost in three sets. Ferrero -800 or so and lost in 2 sets. Chela lost in 2 sets and he was around -250. These are some of the same guys that have been playing very well in recent weeks which makes you just wonder if they are burnt out at this point. Having done well in prior weeks probably gives one less motivation to keep that string going

Andreev has always been a frustrating player to bet. I have backed him as a big dog in recent months in situtations where I felt he had a chance to do something and he continually dissapoints. I am not sure if he is just not 100% into his matches or maybe he is just to concerned with Maria Kirilenko to even really concern himself with tennis at this point. I know if I was dating her I wouldn't really care about much else haha.

Looking ahead to tomorrow here are some matches that I am considering:

I probably will not bet the match but Feliciano Lopez should not be a -250 favorite against anybody. Becker is really bad on clay and Lopez isn't that much better but to have Lopez priced as a -250 favorite might be a bit much here. I wouldn't be surprised if either player won here but with that being said Becker at +229 may be worth a bet just for the hell of it.

Hewitt +186 over Youzhny is another bet that looks very good. Hewitt holds a 3-1 record over Youzhny head to head though none of the matches have been on clay. Another good reason to back Hewitt is because he is a fighter and almost always puts in a good effort in his matches. Youzhny is a hot head and can get sidetracked easily if things don't go his way early. Definately think Hewitt has a good chance to win this match.

Not to sure about you guys but I think Seppi definately has a chance to beat Murray and I really like the +256 price on him. Murray has lost three in a row, has no confidence and is not good at all on clay. Has all of the making for an upset here. Granted Seppi isn't exactly lighting the world on fire right now with his play but it might be worth a +256 shot here.

Do you guys have any matches that you like for tomorrow? I am going to think about these matches for a bit. Probably won't take the Becker bet but seriously considering the Hewitt and Seppi bets.

**Stacocakes** · 04-26-10, 02:17 PM

Nadal outrights are now -210. Lots of money coming in on Nadal. Glad I got him before the tournament began like I did

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-26-10, 03:48 PM

I'd be careful on Hewitt. There's a reason his price is that big, he's not 100%. If you look at this two clay court tourneys since returning, he has struggled with consistency from set to set. Of course, betting Youzhny at that high of a favorite is SUICIDE ... this is a definite no play for me.

I kind of like a Wawrinka-Bellucci parlay for tomorrow. Wawrinka is definitely in good form on clay and better on the surface that Melzer. Bellucci is just more talented than Leo Mayer IMO and had a solid result in Barcelona. Bellucci's main problem seems to be consistency from tournament to tournament. Once he devlops that, he really is going to be a tough out on clay and on hard courts too I think.

**Stacocakes** · 04-26-10, 10:35 PM

Wow Hewitt is now +211. YOuzhny getting pounded. You must be right Eagles. hmm might have to pass on him then.

Seppi is +249 right now. Line hasn't moved to much. Still not sure about taking him.

The Wawrinka-Bellucci parlay you mentioned sounds good Eagles. It pays +112 on Pinnacle which is pretty good. I think I might take that. Still nothing set in stone yet. Going to try to dig around and see if I can find something good.

**Stacocakes** · 04-27-10, 01:11 AM

I think I am going to pass on both dogs. Have a feeling that Murray will actually win for once tomorrow morning and the line movement of people pounding Youzhny has scared me off of taking Hewitt here. Just going to pass for the day and get back at it wed morning. Good luck to you guys tomorrow morning

**griffdog** · 04-27-10, 01:52 AM

I'm on Becker, can't pass up the value. Also put a play on Simon Greul, no telling how Bolelli is after going out with a wrist injury last time out. Going to jump on Troicki as well, love him at the odds.

And just for kicks, I'm going to put a few bucks on Lisa Bennani in Morocco. Doubt it hits, but with the way Medina Garrigues has been playing, anything can happen.

Depending on how things go with the early matches, I might take a couple more on the women's side. Na Li, Ivanovic, and Szavay are the ones I'm looking at.

**obie** · 04-27-10, 03:17 AM

I can guarantee you that Murray will win today!

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-27-10, 07:16 AM

Looks like Hewitt may pull this out. This is why I sat that match out. You have a Russian at big odds, which usually means they choke - but you have on the other side, a guy who still isn't 100% healthy [I think]. So that made it a crapshoot. Even when you come out on the right side, it's hard to enjoy betting on a Russian match when things might change in the blink of an eye.

**obie** · 04-27-10, 07:42 AM

Well, today I love the parlay of djoko, murray and federer. All 3 players havent showet ANYTHING on clay yet, thats why their motivation should be pretty big. A loss in the second round (first round for them), would be a BIG loss during their run-up to French Open!

**EaglesPhan36** · 04-27-10, 09:02 AM

Hewitt pulled through, but he made it interesting - blowing the 2nd set and then rolling away in the 3rd. Pretty much a typical Russian-involved ATP match.

**Stacocakes** · 04-27-10, 10:45 AM

Wow of course Hewitt wins since I didn't follow through and take him. Unbelievable

Wawrinka wins easily Eagles so you got the first half of your parlay down.

Djokovic wins easily. Federer won the first set over Gulbis. Almagro is going to the third set in his match against Kubot as a -500 favorite. Yikes

Some money has come in on Murray to win. He is up to -290 now to defeat Seppi.