EP36's Tennis Talk

**limitation** · 08-11-10, 04:53 PM

Good call, EP. Thanks for the parlay!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-11-10, 04:55 PM

NADAL-WAWRINKA OVER 20.5 [-105]
This has been a pretty decent formula for first-ups in these tournaments. If you've got a guy playing his first match on a surface switch like Nadal + a guy who has some matches under his belt like Wawrinka, take a shot at the over when the total is fairly low. Wawrinka easily dispatched Dancevic in his opener here and the key today is going to be his 1st serve percentage. He needs to pump it into the 60s because when he gets that first serve in, he does a pretty solid job of holding serve. Nadal does have some time on-court here with a doubles match, but a competitive singles match is still a different beast. Not suggesting Wawrinka will win in the end, but I do think he can keep it competitive if that 1st serve is working well today.

**TopGun1** · 08-11-10, 05:06 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

All I need to do is get the booze! Karma just made love to me sideways. Vera rallied from down 2-5 in the 3rd to win the tie break! Parlay cashes!

Incredible, loving the comeback! Definitely a pleasant surprise for the bankroll, somehow back to even on the day!

**Goat Milk** · 08-11-10, 05:11 PM

Rafa has never dropped a set to Wawrinka in his life. I was highly considering this as well but don't want to get screwed by the hook. Hopefully you get a 7-5, 6-4 type match.

**limitation** · 08-11-10, 06:43 PM

EP, which underdogs have a good chance to win Rogers Cup?

**beefcake** · 08-11-10, 07:25 PM

WOW!
Just noticed the meltdown of Kirilenko..Thought we were goners.

**rumple** · 08-11-10, 07:51 PM

Never seen so much excitement for a breakeven day.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-11-10, 08:57 PM

Thanks WaWa for making this total interesting, finally won his 2nd game in the 2nd set, so the over is going hit. Lu still battling. Would love to get this one home to end the night 2-1 after the other doubles play crapped out.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-11-10, 09:28 PM

Luuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuu.

**ha1ogen** · 08-11-10, 10:29 PM

nice call with the over

**beefcake** · 08-11-10, 10:57 PM

Any uzbek challenger thoughts?

**beefcake** · 08-11-10, 11:00 PM

At first glance,Gil at +105 looks tempting in turkey.

**rake922** · 08-11-10, 11:03 PM

uzbek typically riggs matches

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-11-10, 11:50 PM

THURSDAY CHALLENGER PLAY: DE LA NAVA +157
He draws Mannarino who is in great hard court form with two straight Challenger finals appearances. It's the FADERADE formula. De La Nava has some confidence drawn fromw ousting top seed Olivier Rochus here. Mannarino by far is the hard court specialist here, but this is a fatigue angle. De La Nava is not a hard court guy per day, but it's a situational bias here.

**beefcake** · 08-12-10, 06:28 AM

Wow,down to +110 now..Lots of tailers!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-10, 07:30 AM

Live scoreboard for the Challenger play at Bet365. Yay!

**ji03** · 08-12-10, 07:36 AM

Yeah thanks for the Lu pick. I was nervous with the two tiebreakers.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-10, 08:25 AM

PARLAY: BERDYCH + PAVLYUCHENKOVA [+100]
Berdych draws Dolgopolov today. The young Ukrainian pulled off the upset of Youzhny yesterday, but falls into the category of a good fade here today. He's won two matches here at the Rogers Cup, but has failed to win more points than his opponent in each. That is usually a recipe for disaster at some point. Berdych looked solid in his opener, whipping Stakhovsky in straights and offering just one break opportunity. I thought he had the possibility of improving from last week's rusty performance in Washington and this should be another step in that direction. Pavlyuchenkova had put together a nice run this week, crushing Hantuchova & Dementieva. This comes on the heels of her win in Istanbul in July. She draws Peer today who is fully capable on this surface, but I'll ride with the player who should be sporting more confidence in her game today based on her recent performances and that is Pavlyuchenkova.

**beefcake** · 08-12-10, 08:25 AM

Ep,once tennis season ends in Nov,I was thinking of backtesting the challenger angle as far as the winners and losers of the finals of these.It would be easy to make a spreadsheet,I think with enough info and throwing some qualifiers in,we could make some good profit..

For example...Have the winner and loser of said challenger,if they won/lost their next match either as a fav or dog,then add how many days lapsed between matches,then note if a surface change was made.MAYBE if we ran through these hoops we could find a definite advantage.Perfect example is the Bernakis match,cause obviously like you said the intangibles all favored witten,which I 100% bet the books did not take into account the fatigue.Right there it shows you that the books are so busy and challenger plays obviously arent looked at very well either because they get such little action.I think with enough work we can exploit it.

**beefcake** · 08-12-10, 08:29 AM

Well we might have to go 3 here...Mannarino will be too pooped to win..

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-10, 08:40 AM

FEDERER-LLODRA OVER 21 [-135]
Llodra has been able to pump his serve in for cheap points this week and has been solid with it, only being broken once thus far. He'll need to try and get more first serves in to keep the pressure off his second serve. Federer was solid in his opening match with Chela, serving up nine aces and getting in a high percentage of his first serves. He was broken just once. If Llodra holds his serve well today and shows a good nerve, I think the over has an excellent shot.

VESNINA +125
Oh sexy Ana Ivanovic is the draw today for the Russian Vesnina. I think Ana has been somewhat fortunate in her first two matches to have been able to pick on the poor 2nd serves of Azarenka & Shvedova. The win over Azarenka to me is somewhat skewed too because Azarenka was clearly fatigued from travel and heavy play in San Diego last week. Ivanovic was shaky in that match, being broken 5 of 6 times and double faulting six times, but Azarenka won just 21% of her 2nd serve points and double faulted 12 times. Ivanovic was better last round vs. Shvedova. Vesnina is playing pretty confidently right now, so I'll side with the better price here and make Ana prove that she can put a string of consistency together to win three straight matches. Vesnina has proven she can do that over the past couple of weeks.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-10, 08:41 AM

De La Nava gets broken, not looking good at this point. He had some break chances in that opening set, but did not get it done.

Would be interesting on that Challenger angle, not sure if there is a definite pattern, but scoping it out would help.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-10, 08:58 AM

Oh well. Challenger play is biting it hard in the 2nd, no dice today.

**shari91** · 08-12-10, 09:04 AM

I was looking and looking at Vesnina but something was holding me back. Not sure why since she's made me some good money her last 2 matches and I think Ivanovic is nowhere near worth her price in this one.

Now seeing you on her gave me that final push to jump on her as well. Best of luck!!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-10, 09:40 AM

Price has dropped. Money going on Vesnina.

**Wilforth** · 08-12-10, 09:45 AM

I won't touch Vesnina at that price. I've seen that these books are very tricky. They lure you into such bets by posting unrealistic lines which tend to give plenty value to the dog. In the end, the books win!

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-10, 10:55 AM

Vesnina was horrible. It's like everyone playing Ana is blinded by her hotness.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-10, 11:18 AM

PARLAY: MURRAY + SHARAPOVA [-106]
Murray draws Monfils today. It's a good match-up for him as Monfils struggles for consistency on hard courts against the better players. Murray was clinical in beating an in-form Malisse in his opener. Monfils has beaten de Bakker & Devvarman here with few issues. Monfils' serve will have to be superb to keep him in contention today and this will be a fight, but Murray fitness & steady play should be enough. Sharapova gets Radwanska again today. She dispatched her in 3 sets at the Stanford event in July, crushing Ag-Rad 6-2, 6-2 after losing the opener 6-1. Sharapova has won the last four meetings between the two and I think her power is too much for Radwanska. Her serving issues will still give Radwanska some chances, but in the end, Radwanska has played a lot of tennis lately and Sharapova should give her an early break from competition this week.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-10, 11:55 AM

Nice of Berdych to screw around in the tie break and wind up in a 3rd set. This may be set for another tie break. Both guys 1st serves have been almost unbeatable.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-10, 12:24 PM

Tursunov Tweets

Must... continue... to.. fight.. but 1st I must put my flip-flops through an x-ray. Thank God I forgot 2 pack plastic explosives into them

@haleyplm asleep in a hammock with an IV of chilled baby coconut milk...

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-12-10, 12:30 PM

Berdych survives.

**Mirar Baseball** · 08-12-10, 12:47 PM

Nice net cord for Lllodra. He is two points away from going 3-0 (!!!) up.

And he gets there!

**beefcake** · 08-12-10, 12:55 PM

Nalbandian is now officially not "Fat Dave" Anymore...11 straight wins and looking for 1500 ATP points in 2 weeks.

Kick ass dave!

**shari91** · 08-12-10, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Tursunov Tweets

I have to remind myself to add him. How awesome are these?

Originally posted by beefcake

Nalbandian is now officially not "Fat Dave" Anymore...11 straight wins and looking for 1500 ATP points in 2 weeks. Kick ass dave!

I love a great comeback story and even if he doesn't make it past the next round, he's my new sentimental favourite. Just wish I backed him instead of just yapping about it but at least I got the over.

**Mthorn** · 08-12-10, 01:23 PM

Tursunov is hilarious.