Knee-jerk reaction to the French Open draw:
Federer Quarter
Federer has a great draw here. His first test would be Wawrinka or maybe Monfils in the 4th round. Seeing as he crushed Wawrinka and Monfils has been playing like an idiot for the past couple weeks, should be no problem to the QFs. Soderling is on the bottom of the draw and who knows what he is going to do. He has looked less than ordinary lately, so even though he could surprise and run deep - not expecting it. Bottom could be set up for Gulbis to make a run. Unless there is a drastic change of form by Monfils or Soderling, Federer to the semis.
Murray Quarter
Yikes. Andy Murray could go out Day 1 going up against Gasquet. His draw is brutal, so I don't expect him to survive long here. If he gets by Gasquet, the 3rd or 4th round will catch him with a Baghdatis, Isner or Berdych. Berdych and Isner could clash again in the 3rd round. I think the winner there has a legit shot at the QFs although Berdych has never done well here. Don't discount Gasquet if he upsets Murray in Round 1, the draw opens for him nicely although I don't think he'll be as lucky with upsets as he was in Nice this week. Down on bottom, it's Tsonga. He's got a couple winnable matches, but could catch de Bakker in the 3rd and potentially Troicki/Robredo or Youzhny in the 4th. This quarter looks like it is likely to have a "surprise" semifinalist. I think anyone from Gasquet to Youzhny to Tsonga might have a shot. Will need to study this one further.
Djokovic Quarter
Up top, Roddick is the seeded player. He did make the 4th round in an easy draw last year. This year, he's got no build-up on clay prior to Roland Garros. Monaco looms in the 3rd. Ferrer in the 4th. A-Rod is toast by then at the latest. Should be a nice draw for Ferrer here. Could be Monaco or Roddick vs. Ferrer in the 4th. Bottom is Djokovic who in his own right comes here with question marks on form and health after suffering from allergies in the Spring. His draw is manageable, but features some land mines in Hanescu and Querrey. Looks like a potential showdown with Juan Carlos Ferrero in the 4th. That match-up hasn't happened since 2007. I can see Djokovic going deep here if he comes out firing or JCF could take him out. I think Ferrer has a solid shot of getting to the semis here. He's only made as far as the QFs twice, so this would be big for him. I think it's him or Djokovic.
Nadal Quarter
Nadal should cruise into the QFs. Up top it's Verdasco as the seeded player. He's got a tough draw with Kohlschreiber, Almagro & Fernando Gonzalez. He's played a lot of tennis and I won't be surprised with Verdasco gets fatigued and beaten in the 3rd or 4th round. You can't really make a case for any intriguing match-up problems for Nadal here. He's pretty killed everyone he could potentially line up against in the QFs. An interesting one in theory would be Fernando Gonzalez because he could go with the Soderling grip it & rip it approach of 2009. Still, he hasn't had much success against Rafa on all surfaces, never mind RG.
Preliminary Final 4: Federer, Tsonga, Djokovic, Nadal
I think the stage is set for a Federer-Nadal final, but then again that's probably what is always predictable here. In the Nadal era though, there have been few surprises in the French outside of last year. Even then, Federer made the final. I think if Tsonga is healthy, he could be a real surprise to some with a deep run. He has shown his ability on clay this Spring and I think just needs to get off to a strong start.
Round 1 Mouth Waterers
Murray/Gasquet: Will be a supremely popular upset pick I believe which may or may not give you a chance to get Murray cheap.
Tursunov/Gimeno-Traver: Tursunov hasn't played since last August because of ankle problems. Gimeno-Traver is a dirt specialist, although not a great one. Just curious to see the line here and what weird Russianess it might present.
Troicki/Robredo: Young buck vs. Old man. Old man has looked real old this season.
Llodra/Bellucci: Would have been a no brainer a few weeks ago to take Bellucci, but he's looked awful. Llodra had a nice run in Bordeaux and could be an upset pick here.
Hewitt/Chardy: Yeah my man Chardy. I know I shouldn't bet this, so I must stay away because I never get it right. A healthy Hewitt perhaps, but the price is the key.
Federer Quarter
Federer has a great draw here. His first test would be Wawrinka or maybe Monfils in the 4th round. Seeing as he crushed Wawrinka and Monfils has been playing like an idiot for the past couple weeks, should be no problem to the QFs. Soderling is on the bottom of the draw and who knows what he is going to do. He has looked less than ordinary lately, so even though he could surprise and run deep - not expecting it. Bottom could be set up for Gulbis to make a run. Unless there is a drastic change of form by Monfils or Soderling, Federer to the semis.
Murray Quarter
Yikes. Andy Murray could go out Day 1 going up against Gasquet. His draw is brutal, so I don't expect him to survive long here. If he gets by Gasquet, the 3rd or 4th round will catch him with a Baghdatis, Isner or Berdych. Berdych and Isner could clash again in the 3rd round. I think the winner there has a legit shot at the QFs although Berdych has never done well here. Don't discount Gasquet if he upsets Murray in Round 1, the draw opens for him nicely although I don't think he'll be as lucky with upsets as he was in Nice this week. Down on bottom, it's Tsonga. He's got a couple winnable matches, but could catch de Bakker in the 3rd and potentially Troicki/Robredo or Youzhny in the 4th. This quarter looks like it is likely to have a "surprise" semifinalist. I think anyone from Gasquet to Youzhny to Tsonga might have a shot. Will need to study this one further.
Djokovic Quarter
Up top, Roddick is the seeded player. He did make the 4th round in an easy draw last year. This year, he's got no build-up on clay prior to Roland Garros. Monaco looms in the 3rd. Ferrer in the 4th. A-Rod is toast by then at the latest. Should be a nice draw for Ferrer here. Could be Monaco or Roddick vs. Ferrer in the 4th. Bottom is Djokovic who in his own right comes here with question marks on form and health after suffering from allergies in the Spring. His draw is manageable, but features some land mines in Hanescu and Querrey. Looks like a potential showdown with Juan Carlos Ferrero in the 4th. That match-up hasn't happened since 2007. I can see Djokovic going deep here if he comes out firing or JCF could take him out. I think Ferrer has a solid shot of getting to the semis here. He's only made as far as the QFs twice, so this would be big for him. I think it's him or Djokovic.
Nadal Quarter
Nadal should cruise into the QFs. Up top it's Verdasco as the seeded player. He's got a tough draw with Kohlschreiber, Almagro & Fernando Gonzalez. He's played a lot of tennis and I won't be surprised with Verdasco gets fatigued and beaten in the 3rd or 4th round. You can't really make a case for any intriguing match-up problems for Nadal here. He's pretty killed everyone he could potentially line up against in the QFs. An interesting one in theory would be Fernando Gonzalez because he could go with the Soderling grip it & rip it approach of 2009. Still, he hasn't had much success against Rafa on all surfaces, never mind RG.
Preliminary Final 4: Federer, Tsonga, Djokovic, Nadal
I think the stage is set for a Federer-Nadal final, but then again that's probably what is always predictable here. In the Nadal era though, there have been few surprises in the French outside of last year. Even then, Federer made the final. I think if Tsonga is healthy, he could be a real surprise to some with a deep run. He has shown his ability on clay this Spring and I think just needs to get off to a strong start.
Round 1 Mouth Waterers
Murray/Gasquet: Will be a supremely popular upset pick I believe which may or may not give you a chance to get Murray cheap.
Tursunov/Gimeno-Traver: Tursunov hasn't played since last August because of ankle problems. Gimeno-Traver is a dirt specialist, although not a great one. Just curious to see the line here and what weird Russianess it might present.
Troicki/Robredo: Young buck vs. Old man. Old man has looked real old this season.
Llodra/Bellucci: Would have been a no brainer a few weeks ago to take Bellucci, but he's looked awful. Llodra had a nice run in Bordeaux and could be an upset pick here.
Hewitt/Chardy: Yeah my man Chardy. I know I shouldn't bet this, so I must stay away because I never get it right. A healthy Hewitt perhaps, but the price is the key.
