[JustSomeCash]

My mannnnnnn!!!!!!!

Good job!

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks guys!

@addictedto

You are right. There are a lot of absent player for Chelsea. I only mentioned those, which I thought will be missed the most. I agree with you that they will struggle to score. They will even struggle to create chances, imho. When you don't have midfielders to create, you can only hope for a miracle, from some set piece, or some scrappy goal, caused by opponents mistake. I don't even believe that Mou thinks about scoring here. He will look for a active result here in first leg, which they could catch up in London...

[Hardcoar]

So am I right in guessing Chelsea has been lucky thus far, judging from 1:st half stats?

[zec]

I wouldn't call them lucky as much as annoying as s*hit. Can't stand Jose and his tactics, it's like watching paint dry

[Honeybadger44]

So am I right in guessing Chelsea has been lucky thus far, judging from 1:st half stats?

Well, to be honest, not really. There was nor real chances on either side. Chelsea clearly don't care about scoring. They came to defend and so far they managed to disrupt Atletico's offense... We'll see how long can they keep it this way.

edit: Zec described it pretty much, as it is...

[Honeybadger44]

Hsieh +1,5 sets @3,07 Pinnacle - 2 units

Hsieh ML @7,24 Pinnacle - 1 unit

Wawrinka-Raonic over 22,5 @1,98 Pinnacle - 4 units

Cirstea-Jovanovski over 20 @1,86 Pinnacle - 3 units

Vesely +2,5 @1,88 Pinnacle - 6 units


Gimeno Traver ML @1,94 Pinnacle - 4 units

Marius Copil ML @2,02 Pinnacle - 4 units



Pospisil/Ungur over 21,5 @1,89 Pinnacle - 3 units


Atletico Madrid -1 AH @2,73 Pinnacle - 2 units

Record: 5-4-0
Hit rate: 56%
Staked: 29u
return: 38,37u
profit: +9,37u
ROI: +32,3%

[Hardcoar]

IDK about 1:st but I did watch 2:nd and Atl. f*cked up miserably on so many fantastic opportunities. They also has a massive defensive melt-down in the latter half of the half (I'm a lyrical genious, I know!).

Great start by the way... big congrat's!

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah, they had some very nice opportunities in the second half. Too bad they failed to convert those...

And yes, you are a lyrical genious

Thanks! Hopefully I can keep pilling these winners and stay in the green numbers.

[Hardcoar]

Roger Waters... now there's a true lyrical genious!

[frugalgambler]

IDK about 1:st but I did watch 2:nd and Atl. f*cked up miserably on so many fantastic opportunities. They also has a massive defensive melt-down in the latter half of the half (I'm a lyrical genious, I know!).

Great start by the way... big congrat's!

I did not see any "great" scoring opportunities there. Atletico's coach is a f.cking idiot: the whole game they tried to score with a header against Chelsea. How dumb was that. Gotta love Chelsea's chances in the return leg.

[Honeybadger44]

Simon ML @1,95 Pinnacle - 3 units

I see value here. Simon was injured and since his return, he didn't really impress with his results. But, I have seen his last two matches, and I can say he was not that bad at all. Maybe that loss against Gabashvili looks bit disturbing, but trust me, Gabashvili was hitting that ball like crazy in that match.
Simon is looking to get some momentum going, and where to find a better place, then a tournament, where he won 3 titles and has 17-2 record. He feels great here, he will play with more confidence on these courts... I am aware that he is not at his best at the moment, but these odds are still an overreaction to his poor results lately. Simon @1,95 on clay, against Hanescu. It sounds good to me.
I saw Hanescu against Delbonis in Casablanca. Not impressed.

[JustSomeCash]

Simon ML @1,95 Pinnacle - 3 units

I see value here. Simon was injured and since his return, he didn't really impress with his results. But, I have seen his last two matches, and I can say he was not that bad at all. Maybe that loss against Gabashvili looks bit disturbing, but trust me, Gabashvili was hitting that ball like crazy in that match.
Simon is looking to get some momentum going, and where to find a better place, then a tournament, where he won 3 titles and has 17-2 record. He feels great here, he will play with more confidence on these courts... I am aware that he is not at his best at the moment, but these odds are still an overreaction to his poor results lately. Simon @1,95 on clay, against Hanescu. It sounds good to me.
I saw Hanescu against Delbonis in Casablanca. Not impressed.

Oh god I need this winner so much..Bulls ****** me again lol

Let's see,up to now Simo was f** poor,choked every time..

Tnx HB good luck to us.

[cryptocap]

someone sold their soul

[shimeon40]

nice pick

[JustSomeCash]

Simon ML @1,95 Pinnacle - 3 units

I see value here. Simon was injured and since his return, he didn't really impress with his results. But, I have seen his last two matches, and I can say he was not that bad at all. Maybe that loss against Gabashvili looks bit disturbing, but trust me, Gabashvili was hitting that ball like crazy in that match.
Simon is looking to get some momentum going, and where to find a better place, then a tournament, where he won 3 titles and has 17-2 record. He feels great here, he will play with more confidence on these courts... I am aware that he is not at his best at the moment, but these odds are still an overreaction to his poor results lately. Simon @1,95 on clay, against Hanescu. It sounds good to me.
I saw Hanescu against Delbonis in Casablanca. Not impressed.

Just now I had time to see the result,tnx mucho mucho on this winner

First time in my life that I followed someone with closed eyes.

[Honeybadger44]

nice pick

Thanks!

Just now I had time to see the result,tnx mucho mucho on this winner

First time in my life that I followed someone with closed eyes.

You are welcome, man!

Only, I am not a fan of "following somebody with your eyes close", system. That is why I write the reason, why I choose this pick, so everybody can read it and either say: "This guy has some good points there. I am going to follow". Or, you can say: "This reasoning is one big load of bullshit. I am going to pass on this one" .

[Hardcoar]

Yeah I'd love to provide more reasoning without request as well but I'm simply too damn lazy and let the stats speak for themselves!

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah I'd love to provide more reasoning without request as well but I'm simply too damn lazy and let the stats speak for themselves!

Don't get me wrong, Hardcoar. I am not judging anybody, for not providing reasoning with their picks. I was more trying to say that when you follow somebody, it is always good to turn on your brain and put some extra thought about the bet, as ultimately, that is your money, which you are risking, and it is not bad to act responsable as possible. While most of the people follow and bet any shit that they could find on forums and then blaiming everybody but themselves, for loosing money.

[Hardcoar]

Actually contrary to what I'd expect you to expect, that post was a hundred per-cent outrightly honest. There was not a single hint of sarcasm.


As such, I did not in any way, shape, or form, get you wrong.

[Honeybadger44]

Combining you lyrical geniusness, with the fact that English is my third language, I had to go through your post twenty times to understand what you are trying to say

[Honeybadger44]

Pennetta +1,5 (games) @1,91 Pinnacle - 5 units

She is playing some of the best tennis in her carrer, this season. I saw parts of her match yesterday against Petkovic and it seemed to me that she is comfortable with these conditions. She was hitting the ball well, while improvments could be made upon her service performance yesterday... As I was mentioning here, few days ago, it seems to me that these conditions in Stuttgart are favoring the players, which are hitting aggresivly from the baseline, over the grinders and counter-punchers (Pennetta = ball striker, Jankovic = counter puncher). Not impressed with Jankovic lately. She was not playing that bad, but she seems to be loosing her focus way to often, when the things don't go her way. She saved 3 match points against Barthel in previous round and probably shouldn't even be here.

Mathieu -3,5 @1,83 Pinnacle - 5 units (better odds can be found, shopping around)

I know that I went with Copil the other day, but that was more fading his opponent then backing him. He was pretty solid in that match, but here he will face a match-up problem. His backhand seems to be the weak spot of his game, while Mathieu's backhand might be even be the strongest weapon. His backhand cross court is very good and he will use it very often today, in order to exploit Copil's weaknesses. Also, we could see in previous match, what we already know. Copil is not a clay courter. He is relying on his serve quite a lot and he can keep this one close, only if he serves perfect today, imho. He can do that, but those chances are not huge, so I am willing to take that risk.

Ivanovic/Goerges over 20,5 @1,90 Bet365 - 4 units

No special reasons for this one. I simply think that both girls have games, which are perfect for these conditions. Both hit the ball really well in first round and I believe they will go back and forth in this one, pushing the total easily over this line.

Verdasco ML @1,99 Pinnacle - 2 units

Only 2 unit play here, as I am not overwhelmed by the value in these odds. Verdasco is 8-4 h2h and I think I know why. As A lefty, he can easily stay away from Almagro's punishing forehand and work his backhand, during the rallies. Especially on clay, where players with one handed backhands have more problems, controling the shots with a lot of top spin, when playing on that side... Verdasco seems to be in better form as well here. But as I said, only 2 units, as value is not big + Almagro had quite some success on this tournament earlier.

[Hardcoar]

Combining you lyrical geniusness, with the fact that English is my third language, I had to go through your post twenty times to understand what you are trying to say

It's all good man... I like myself some proper mind-f*cking now and then.

That post was actually dead serious as well, despite what any sane person would suppose.

[JustSomeCash]

It's all good man... I like myself some proper mind-f*cking now and then.

That post was actually dead serious as well, despite what any sane person would suppose.

In my place,this was your avatar ():

[Honeybadger44]

Sharapova -5 @1.79 Pinnacle - 4 units

My line here was -6 , so in my eyes, this line is offering nice value. Probably it is set this way, as Sharapova is not a huge fan of clay, while for Errani this is favorite surface. But still, Sharapova was doing really well here in the past and I think that it has something to do with playing it indoors. Imho, here she has more control over her serve, which is very important for her game.
That is why I see an easy win for her in this spot. Pretty much everything will be decided within the first two shots in every point, where Sharapova should take control over the points and hopefully win them. Errani's serve is weak. Especially her second serve is begging to be returned for a winner. She will have a lot of problems holding on to her serve as I believe Maria will attack it right away and put Errani into bad situation. If Sharapova's serve will be at least decent, she should cruise through this one.

Giraldo +4,5 @1.83 Bet365 - 3 units

This one doesn't have that much to do with Giraldo. He has been playing well lately, but I expect Almagro to have a letdown here. Something similar to Ferrer in Monte Carlo, who played nowhere near as good in the semis, comparing to the performance in quarters, where he eliminated Nadal. That is a huge achivment for these guys, who got stopmed by Nadal over and over again in previous years, especially on clay. That might cause, Almagro not to be 100% focused on the next opponent + the fatigue, after 3 hour battle...

Jankovic +1,5 games @1.81 Pinnacle - 4 units

These two girls know each other really well, as this will be their 12th time to play against each other. Ivanovic is owning the series 8-3, but I am still leaning toward Jankovic in this one. She has simply been more consistant and played better throughout this week. Ivanovic hit the ball really well at times, but also went from one msitake to another at times. She had problems finding rhythm on her backhand side and with her serve. Jankovic will for sure try to expose that backhand side during the rallies, because she have abilities to do that. She is commiting less mistakes and also serving pretty well. I see Jankovic as a slight favorite here and not the other way around.

[JustSomeCash]

Hi HB,Thanks again for your picks two days ago.

I parlayed Flavia +1.5 sets @ Ivanovic over and made my money for this day. All credit for you.

for today,you said "I expect Almagro to have a letdown here. Something similar to Ferrer in Monte Carlo, who played nowhere near as good in the semis, comparing to the performance in quarters, where he eliminated Nadal. "

But that way diff IMO,Ferrer game against Rafa was much more exhausting than yesterday game,also Ferrer played against Waw in SF and Waw was Wow lol,he just was great in this turny and Ferrer didnt have any answers for his powers,this time the guy waiting in the corner is far from being good player,last game vs Kohli,he berly manage to win a set against inj player,he was up 5-2 in the first set that choke and alow Koli to back to 5-4 15-40* but than Kohli went crazy and lost 4 points in a row to loss the set,than in the 2nd Gilrdo was up 3-0 but again Koli back to 3-3 and was so close to break again to lead 34 but than the inj was to much,so really, he is nothing but shit,and this bet not really up to him IMO but good luck.

For Janko bet,IMO its better this time to take the ML bec Ana had some inj last game and if she get kick in the ass she can ret like CSN yesterday than the bet will win(in Pinni)

however,goood luck today hope you will kick their ass!

[JustSomeCash]

One more thing,any quick opinion on Monfils Dimi game & Gulbis NIshi game?

[Honeybadger44]

There are definitely mayn different angles to look at Almagro-Girlado match. That is the way I see it, but I can understant that you are not too excited about that bet. It is tough to go against the guy, who looked that good the day before...

Monfils doesn't look that great at the moment. Leaning Dimitrov, but because Monfils is a clown and you never know with him, I skipped that one.

Nishi-Gulbis, probably over. Gulbis destroyed Gabashvili yesterday, because Teymuraz allowed him to play his game, so basically, it was, who will hit the ball harder. Gulbis is of course, favorite in such match. He will have much tougher job here against Nishikori, who has some awsome angles on his shots and he is hitting the ball well this week. But I doubt he can control this match from start to finsih and take it in straight sets. Even if he can, Gulbis could push one set into tie breaker, with his serve and increase the chances for the over.

Good luck.

edit: Regarding Jankovic-Ivanovic ML bet. That is a very good point. I there is a possibility of retirment, of course ML is better. But I have a habit of taking these games handicaps when betting the underdog. You pay few cents more, but it gives you some margin for error. In this case, I think it can get useful here, as Ana had big meltdowns in some of the sets. And if she loses one of the sets with 6-2 for example, it gets you into great position to win the bet, even if ML possibly looses. That is why I took that +1,5 line

[JustSomeCash]

There are definitely mayn different angles to look at Almagro-Girlado match. That is the way I see it, but I can understant that you are not too excited about that bet. It is tough to go against the guy, who looked that good the day before...

Monfils doesn't look that great at the moment. Leaning Dimitrov, but because Monfils is a clown and you never know with him, I skipped that one.

Nishi-Gulbis, probably over. Gulbis destroyed Gabashvili yesterday, because Teymuraz allowed him to play his game, so basically, it was, who will hit the ball harder. Gulbis is of course, favorite in such match. He will have much tougher job here against Nishikori, who has some awsome angles on his shots and he is hitting the ball well this week. But I doubt he can control this match from start to finsih and take it in straight sets. Even if he can, Gulbis could push one set into tie breaker, with his serve and increase the chances for the over.

Good luck.

Tnx for the res man,in the end I pralayed Pove -1.5 sets & Gulbis v Nishi over 22.5..

lets hope we all hit today,lets go!

[fitguy67]

ever since i discovered i don't really HAVE TO post anything (just login) to get my daily shot of betpoints...i post MUCH less...

but had to chime in here with a big thumbs up...another must-visit thread...damn you SBR tennis forum...

one thing: I like everything i've seen so far here but would like to know what MAX unit size do you propose to adhere to...

in the interest of prudence/proportionality (and the sanity it fosters)...i'd suggest u state something sensible like "10"...

[JustSomeCash]

Talking about clowns....Monshit withdraws at 1-5...

[Honeybadger44]

ever since i discovered i don't really HAVE TO post anything (just login) to get my daily shot of betpoints...i post MUCH less...

but had to chime in here with a big thumbs up...another must-visit thread...damn you SBR tennis forum...

one thing: I like everything i've seen so far here but would like to know what MAX unit size do you propose to adhere to...

in the interest of prudence/proportionality (and the sanity it fosters)...i'd suggest u state something sensible like "10"...

Thanks!

Yeah, of course. Max bet is 10 units here. You will see it rarely, though... Maybe I should write like 4/10 with my picks, but since I never went over 6 units with single pick, in this thread so far, I think it is obvious that max is 10 units. Cheers!

[fitguy67]

no need to modify the format one iota...a 10-max system (with the the upper-calibre bullets being fired rather sparingly) is great...

[Honeybadger44]

Zahlavova Strycova ML @2,02 Pinnacle - 5 units

Oprandi had a great run in Marakech, last week, where she lost in the final match against Torro Flor. Because of that, I think there is no value on her side, because people have short term memories and will usualy back players, who have done well most recently.
But, I am not forgeting that Zahlavova-Strycova played really well on some of her previous tournaments, in Miami and Charleston. I also like her in this spot, because of her game. She is a very tricky player to play against as she is quick, she changes the pace a lot, she approaches the net often and always keep her opponent on her toes, because you don't know which shot is coming next. Oprandi is a player, which is most comfortable fireing groundstrokes from the baseline and needs some rhythm to do so. That is why I think she does not match up well against Zahlavova, because czech player has a game, which doesn't allow opponent to get any rhytm on their shots, because of the frequent change of pace.

Sousa -2 @1,96 Pinnacle - 5 units

I am not overly impressed with Sousa's game to be quite honest. He doesn't have any special weapons imho. He simply gronds his opponent out. He is solid defender, can run a lot, can keep the ball in play and will try to work his opponents backhand, with his inside out forehand.
It is not a lot, but I think it is just good enough to take Mayer out here. I watched couple of his matches lately and it seemed to me that he is not in very good form. He is impatient. Trying to force some of the shots, even if the opportunity is not there and commiting quite some errors. Combining that with Sousa's game style and the fact that Joao will be fired up in his home tournament, I think he should win this one.

[Hardcoar]

Yeah but ZS hasn't played for a long time. This one's an obvious pass.

[Honeybadger44]

Yeah but ZS hasn't played for a long time. This one's an obvious pass.

If that is the strongest counter arrgument, I can live with it

Good luck today, Harcoar!