Honeybadger's picks

[Honeybadger44]

Decided to start my own thread, instead of being all over the tennis section and posting my thoughts in other people's threads. I can't promise that I will be posting every day, but I will try. And also, I'll be updating stats as often as possible. Let's get this!

[Honeybadger44]

Hsieh +1,5 sets @3,07 Pinnacle - 2 units

Hsieh ML @7,24 Pinnacle - 1 unit


I think that odds are worth of a try. It is a small tournament, where large favorites doesn't always play at their 100%. Playing conditions are also very difficult, because of that high humidity, but I think that asian players have a slight edge there, because they are more used of that, then european players. Also, Hsieh has a tricky style of game. She is taking the ball on the rise, mostly, which makes her shots more difficult to read and set defense for. Also comfortable at the net.

[Hardcoar]

Looking forward to your posts. Good luck!

[Marillion]

Hey I'm also happy to see you've made your own thread. Good luck.

[JustSomeCash]

Yes yes yes, Happy to see you open a thread!

one of the wise Guys here,good luck my man,hope to see you kiicking asses!

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks guys! I really appreciate all of these positive comments. I hope my posts will help you guys, to win some extra money

[JustSomeCash]

Thanks guys! I really appreciate all of these positive comments. I hope my posts will help you guys, to win some extra money

I like your line of thinking! I think you are very clever, and we can become wiser out of it, even if your picks lost.

Love to hear if you have some opinions for rest of ** games,even that all the remaining games are shit.

[kenz]

This is a loser, not because of odds but because of unparalleled lack of anything good about tennis on Hsieh. I expect an easy win by Domi.

However you have good points in a lot of games, BOL in your thread

[Honeybadger44]

I like your line of thinking! I think you are very clever, and we can become wiser out of it, even if your picks lost.

Love to hear if you have some opinions for rest of ** games,even that all the remaining games are shit.

Correct. I find the rest of the lines, for matches in Monte Carlo very difficult to break down. I didn't bet any of them. I was clsoe to make a play on Federer to cover. Also thought about Dimitrov giving a hard time to Ferrer, because David was not impressive so far in the season. But I backed down, because I think his style of play will cause problems to Grigor, who is not in best form either...

This is a loser, not because of odds but because of unparalleled lack of anything good about tennis on Hsieh. I expect an easy win by Domi.

However you have good points in a lot of games, BOL in your thread

Different oppinions are always welcome here. I am aware that this bet is a longshot, but I thought the value was there, so I went with it.
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[kenz]

Hsieh is horrible, I dont know how she even qualified for WTA. On paper she looks ok, especially 2012. But when you watch her, even pairing with Peng on doubles, I ask myself what the fak she is doing there

I know you will do pretty good in the long run, BOL . Looking forward for your angles

[Honeybadger44]

Wawrinka-Raonic over 22,5 @1,98 Pinnacle - 4 units

Stan played tennis of his life in Melbourne, but since then, he kinda got back to his old ways. And that is, showing flashes of briliance at times, but being pretty inconsistant overall. I expected him to get slightly more consistant on clay, but considering how Milos played this week so far, I believe we will see a close one here. I like Milos' gameplan this week and the execution. He is aware that he will not win enough points in long rallies against these guys on clay, so he is taking a lot of risk on his return, being very aggressive and it payed off so far for him. He is serving well, returning well, hitting the ball well, playing with a lot of confidence and Stan should not have an easy job here, imho.

[Honeybadger44]

I don't have picks yet, for the semifinals and I might even skip these matches, but I still felt that I should post some of my thoughts, regarding these two matches.

Ferrer-Wawrinka

The way David has been playing in past couple of days, I think that his opponents felt like they are stroking the ball into the brick wall, because the ball kept coming back, again, and again, and again... Based on that and on what I already said yesterdaay about Wawrinka's inconsistancy, I am leaning towards Ferrer here. Of course, on a good day, when Stan is really "feeling it", he can punch through any defense, with his big arsenal of shots. We are all aware of that. But problem for him is, that against Ferrer in current form, he has to play consistantly on a highest level, for 2,5 or 3 hours. Can he do that at the moment? I wouldn't say so... I might turn this one into my "official pick", later.


Federer-Djoković

Well, if you saw yesterdays matches, you are probably all over Djoković in this one. Federer played some of the worst tennis, I've seen from him this season. Against Nadal in Melbourne, he was helpless, because of unfavorable matchup, which is always causing him problems, but here, he just commited too many mistakes. And when was the last time we could see Fedex, loosing his focus like this? 0/13 on break point opportunities through first two sets?! He was pretty lucky that Tsonga is not that good at the moment and he somehow managed to win that one.
On the other side, Djoković perfect in first two matches and very good yesterday. Don't let that 3 setter fool you, because he played good tennis. GGL really give his apsolute best there and pushed Nole to work hard for that win.
So, according to those things, which I wrote about above, things seems pretty easy, right? Well, I don't think so. I got myself into a lot of troubles, too many times, when I gave too much meaning to the performances of a tennis player, in previous match. Federer was awfull yesterday, but I can't see him coming out today looking poor like that. And his game is always causing some troubles to Djoković. Novak just doesn't match up well against him. That is why I think it will not be that easy for him.

[Honeybadger44]

Cirstea-Jovanovski over 20 @1,86 Pinnacle - 3 units



4th match of this Fed cup tie between Romania and Serbia. After Romania opened this one with a 2-0 lead, Ivanovic's win over Halep kept Serbia alive, so now the pressure is on Cirstea to close this one out for her team. Jovanovski is a very good counter pucher and can bring a lot of shots back into the play, on clay courts. Forcing Sorana to play an extra shot, combined with pressure which is on her shoulders and her very aggressive and risky playing style, I think she will commit quite some errors in this one and I don't expect an easy win. Line is too low, as we could easily see a three setter here.

[Honeybadger44]

Vesely +2,5 @1,88 Pinnacle - 6 units

Chary is simply awful at the moment, imho, so I can't see him as a favorite against any solid player on ATP tour. Vesely is one of them. I am not that worried about the retirment in Casablanca. It was some kind of illness and he had enough time from that match to recover from it.
Beside Chardy being poor lately, there are few other things, which are luring me to take Vesely. He is a lefty, so he will more easily expose one of Chardy's weaknesses - backhand. Also, it will be much tougher for Chardy to run around the ball and hit it with his forehand, which he likes to do a lot. That will force him to get out of his comfort zone and I doubt that will bring him any good.


Gimeno Traver ML @1,94 Pinnacle - 4 units

Little bit of an overreaction here. Carballes Baena put his name on the ATP tour map, with his semifinal apperence in Casablanca. He did played well, but I doubt it he can do it regulary, at least not this season. Also, now the other players know more about him and his playing style and he is not a surprise for them no more. He is a very good defender, but still lacks some quality in other aspects of the game. I just can't see him being neck to neck, against one of the experianced clay courter like Gimeno Traver, just yet.
At the moment, all you have to do against young spaniard is to lure him into being more offensive and dictate the point more often. He is not that good at that. If I know that, Gimeno Traver does to and that tells me, Carballes Baena doesn't have 50% chances for the win, like bookies think.

[beefcake]

Like Traver too..good luck..yes over reaction to his run is casa

[JustSomeCash]

Vesely +2,5 @1,88 Pinnacle - 6 units

Chary is simply awful at the moment, imho, so I can't see him as a favorite against any solid player on ATP tour. Vesely is one of them. I am not that worried about the retirment in Casablanca. It was some kind of illness and he had enough time from that match to recover from it.
Beside Chardy being poor lately, there are few other things, which are luring me to take Vesely. He is a lefty, so he will more easily expose one of Chardy's weaknesses - backhand. Also, it will be much tougher for Chardy to run around the ball and hit it with his forehand, which he likes to do a lot. That will force him to get out of his comfort zone and I doubt that will bring him any good.


Gimeno Traver ML @1,94 Pinnacle - 4 units

Little bit of an overreaction here. Carballes Baena put his name on the ATP tour map, with his semifinal apperence in Casablanca. He did played well, but I doubt it he can do it regulary, at least not this season. Also, now the other players know more about him and his playing style and he is not a surprise for them no more. He is a very good defender, but still lacks some quality in other aspects of the game. I just can't see him being neck to neck, against one of the experianced clay courter like Gimeno Traver, just yet.
At the moment, all you have to do against young spaniard is to lure him into being more offensive and dictate the point more often. He is not that good at that. If I know that, Gimeno Traver does to and that tells me, Carballes Baena doesn't have 50% chances for the win, like bookies think.

Great call on Daniel

I parlayed him with the Bulls,but choker's can't score a point in the money time and blew 14pts lead

Anyway, I look forward to your picks this week.

BTW,you have opinion on Meusburger? last year she was pretty great on clay.

[Marillion]

I was very, very skeptical of the over in the Cirstea match, as Jovanovski is in a horrible form and Cirstea had beaten Ivanovic the day before but Bojana managed to make a comeback in the second set. Anyway, nice to see there are some good wins here and good luck!

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks!

Too bad for your parlay. Bulls had the Wizards, just where they wanted them - in a slower paced, halfcourt game. It looked like a done deal, when they were up in double digits, but that finish was really bad.

Yeah, Meusburger is a typical grinder. Very skilled defender. Perfect playing style for the clay. And she also played solid tennis on her last tournament in Katowice. I am not thrilled over that bet, because it doesn't hold enough value, for me to take it. But, if I would have to decide, I would go with Meusburger. Good luck!

edit: Thank You, Marillion!

[JustSomeCash]

Thanks!

Too bad for your parlay. Bulls had the Wizards, just where they wanted them - in a slower paced, halfcourt game. It looked like a done deal, when they were up in double digits, but that finish was really bad.

Yeah, Meusburger is a typical grinder. Very skilled defender. Perfect playing style for the clay. And she also played solid tennis on her last tournament in Katowice. I am not thrilled over that bet, because it doesn't hold enough value, for me to take it. But, if I would have to decide, I would go with Meusburger. Good luck!

edit: Thank You, Marillion!

1.85 @ Pinnacle its not enough value? or I do not know what value mean lol?

[Honeybadger44]

Well, we might have a different understang of that term. For me, value is the (positive) difference, between the actual line, set by the books, and my line (where I think it should be). I see Meusburger here as a 1.75-1.80 favorite. Saying that, you can see there is not much difference between these two lines and that is why I will not take that bet.

[JustSomeCash]

Well, we might have a different understang of that term. For me, value is the (positive) difference, between the actual line, set by the books, and my line (where I think it should be). I see Meusburger here as a 1.75-1.80 favorite. Saying that, you can see there is not much difference between these two lines and that is why I will not take that bet.

Got it...

Tnx for the answer man,good luck with Vesely!

[Honeybadger44]

No problem

Chardy playing better then I expected, but Vesely is holding his own so far... Hopefully it will end well. Good luck with you bets!

[JustSomeCash]

Vesely +2,5 @1,88 Pinnacle - 6 units

Chary is simply awful at the moment, imho, so I can't see him as a favorite against any solid player on ATP tour.

Chardy playing better then I expected

I think he played exactly as you expected.
like shit,6:0 in the 2nd vs Ferrer,6:0 in the 2nd vs Vesely,it could be worse?


Good job HB!

[Honeybadger44]

I wrote that one , during the first set tie-breaker. He did played decent until then. But these second set meltdowns are becoming his trademark. I hate players, which give up like that. No character whatsoever...

Most importantly, the bet won.

Thanks!

[JustSomeCash]

So after DJM was wasted with the Bulls and I could not catch Vesely in time,finally some dollars this day,Burger won 63 63 LOL.

I do not want to dig your head, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on Woz@Knapei game later, I also wanted to know if you followed recently after Garanganga he was pretty good two week ago in HOU,@ 2.25 vs Kubler.

If you have time to answer this I'd really appreciate it, peace

[Honeybadger44]

I'm glad to hear that you won with Meusburger! Good job.

I will not bet anything on Wozniacki and Kanepi match. Every time I follow this Stuttgart tournament, it seems to me that these aggresive baseliners, just like Kanepi, do very well on this tournament. Still, I can't pull the trigger with her in this one, because you really have to be on top of your game, to beat Wozniacki's defense. In current form, I am not sure if Kanepi can do that.

I don't follow challenger tour very closely. I don't watch any matches there and therefor, I also don't bet anything from challengers. Because I don't know enough about the players, I just don't want to get involved.

[JustSomeCash]

I'm glad to hear that you won with Meusburger! Good job.

I will not bet anything on Wozniacki and Kanepi match. Every time I follow this Stuttgart tournament, it seems to me that these aggresive baseliners, just like Kanepi, do very well on this tournament. Still, I can't pull the trigger with her in this one, because you really have to be on top of your game, to beat Wozniacki's defense. In current form, I am not sure if Kanepi can do that.

I don't follow challenger tour very closely. I don't watch any matches there and therefor, I also don't bet anything from challengers. Because I don't know enough about the players, I just don't want to get involved.

Tnx!

Look,last two years Woz was very poor on clay,in 12' she was 5/4 and all her wins come against bad opp,Jankovic(than was poor form);Pervak ; Vs Barthel she barly won 64 76; Gajdosova ; Daniilidou, than in 13' shw was worse,2/6 won only 1rd vs Soler-Espinosa and Robson,so what I'm saying is that more than three years (mid 11') have passed since she was able to play well on clay. so mybe this one going to be 3 sets again or kind of a close game so the over can be interesting or mybe KK+4.

However tnx for the res,I see that you know well this tournament so it will be nice to hear your thoughts along the tournament continues to progress,we have big game already in 1RD.

Great day man!

[Honeybadger44]

Marius Copil ML @2,02 Pinnacle - 4 units

Copil is not a great clay court player, but I still have to back him in this spot at this price, mostly because of the opponent he is playing. I am really not a fan of Mannarino on clay. His playing style just don't work well on that surface. He doesn't get any top spin on his forehand and his serve is much more managable for his opponents on slower surfaces. He is a decent player on fast and low bouncing courts, where his flat shots can make damage, but on clay, I don't see him as a threat.
As I said, Copil is also more of a hard court player, but I am sure he will give his best on this tournament, in his home country.

Pospisil/Ungur over 21,5 @1,89 Pinnacle - 3 units

Really poor start of the season for Pospisil, combined with playing on clay, got us to the point, where we are getting him as a big underdog against a challenger level player. I think that is bit of an overreaction, because his poor results were mostly because of his problems with injuries. It seems he is healthy at the moment and I believe he can play decent tennis on clay as well. If he serve well, he will build confidence and he will have a shot to win this one. Also, clay gives him more time to move to his forehand, which he likes to do.
Ungur is a clay court specalist, but not such a good one, who could dominate against Pospisil imho. Vasek needs only one good period in the match, to play on a high level and he will push this one over this low line...

Atletico Madrid -1 AH @2,73 Pinnacle - 2 units

I hope you guys don't mind me posting this soccer play in my thread. I am going to bet it, so I thought I should share it wit you as well.

Atletico is not a team which we see often, so far in the champions league, but this team played so good this year, that in my mind, they have as much chances to win the trophy, as the other teams left in the competition.
Despite Chelsea not being so great, people still have confidence in them, because of their coach - Jose Mourinho. He is brilliant, there is no doubt about it, but I think he has too many missing pieces here, to make his magic in this one. Their biggest acquisition in the previous transfer period - Nemanja Matic, is unable to play in this competition and I think that is a major problem for them. He is a key player. Everything start from him in midfield and when he is not playing, Chelsea has troubles, organising their attack. His replacment is David Luiz, who is more of a central defender, so he is playing out of his position. He did a amazing job, defensively, against PSG in previous round, stopping most of the opponents attacks, but he is very limited, when it comes to ball skills, tehnicque and playmaking abilities. And that will be crucial in this one. Atletico Madrid plays with enormous energy, playing high pressure on opposing team, already on their half of the field. They will dissrupt Chelsea's offense, already in the making and probably even force some turnovers somewhere around 35-40m from the goal and we all know, that is a deadly area to lose the ball. Atletico will have many opportunities from quick counter attacks and I think they should win this one, maybe even with few goal differnce. Also I should not forgot to mention that Branislav Ivanovic is suspended, as he is a key player in Chelsea's defense.

[kenz]

Last year watched STak vs Copil in this tourney, Copil is beyond horrible on clay. Not sure about Mannarino though

BOL

[SirtySree]

^ also not to mention Copil is only just back from injury

pospisil isnt 100% either. said it himself. Ungur is a clay courter and in form.

[Honeybadger44]

Thanks for your input, guys.

Copil wasn't really injured. As far as I know, he retired because of the food poisoning in his last match. And that was a full month ago.
I realise that he is not a clay courter, but for me, everything comes down to the odds. I see him as a 1,75-1,80 favorite in this match, so I have to take him at these odds, which books are offering. If they would set Mannarino as 2,75 dog, I would most likely take him. Pretty simple.

And if we look at their clay court record, only on ATP tour, Copil is 3-7 and Mannarino is 2-11, if I am not mistaken...

I saw Pospisil against Bautista in Monte Carlo and it didn't see like something would bother him (injury). Ungur is better on thus surface, and should be the favorite here, but -3,5 favorite seems like little bit too much to me.

Good luck!

[kenz]

BOL Honeybadgers, I liked your angles yesterday and looking forward to more of them

If you look Copil did not beat anyone good on clay. His technique is poor on clay, a lot of slices, weak returns and a weak backhand. Last year he got owned by Stakhovsky. That being said, Mannarino is French + poor on clay.

BOL

[addictedto]

About Chelsea - they got indeed a lot of missings, including Eto'o and their star Eden Hazzard who is in the group but was missing and is not 100% fit to play. It's true that this Chelsea got a wide bench but I don't think Mou will be able to replace the mentioned indispensible players -Hazzard, Matic and Ivanovic. I don't see Chelsea scoring tonight.

[Simon Gruber]

great call on Copil. Let's hope Vasek shows up now.

[tipsadontlikehim]

good thread