Australian Open: I SPY!

[EaglesPhan36]

Zemlja-Granollers Over 38 [-125]
This should be a real cracker of a match. If Zemlja is recovered from the illness that sidelined him in Auckland, he should pose a real threat to Granollers. Zemlja was playing very well early, pushing Gasquet in three hard sets in Doha and winning over Fognini in three there as well. He showed at the US Open last season that he is capable of playing at this level. Granollers isn't on his favorite surface, but he's still a tough nut on hard courts. He's a good grinder and will be tough to put away easily. This one seems earmarked for at least four sets which should give this number a shot to be met.

[EaglesPhan36]

Adding one more slot for the evening to the open parlay.

Parlay #1 [7 Slots]
Slot 1: [R1] Malisse -510
Slot 2: [R1] Querrey -1200
Slot 3: [R1] Kuznetsova -460
Slot 4: [R1] Tomic -1400
Slot 5: [R1] Kohlschreiber -820

[EaglesPhan36]

This 1st set of Weintraub-Pella has been brutal. Weintraub went up 4-1, blew it to 4-5, but Pella doesn't close and now either going to be 12 or 13 games right off the bat. Have to root for straight sets for whomever wins this set, although with the way it went here - could still see some sloppy, lopsided sets and maybe have a shot in hell in 4.

Duckworth blew a break lead in the 2nd. Fighting to stay on-serve, but at least up a set.

[Tmuston Beltics]

Mitchell had a set point in the TB @ 6-5 but Duckworth managed to win the 2nd set TB 10-8. Awesome. Rather 2-0 than 1-1

[Boxing Champ]

E.P....what do you think about Bedene to beat Becker???

[Djoking]

Zemlja-Granollers Over 38 [-125]and winning over Fognini in three there as well.

Fognini playing only for money for his loses its not good player for anybody

[Boxing Champ]

Got the Over...

[davopnz]

sloane stephens under 20.5 looks real good to me

[EaglesPhan36]

I like Bedene, but being his first Grand Slam main draw ... you don't know exactly how he will respond. Becker isn't a push over.

[EaglesPhan36]

On the board for the night. Under hits with Weintraub winning in straights.

[Boxing Champ]

I like Bedene, but being his first Grand Slam main draw ... you don't know exactly how he will respond. Becker isn't a push over.

Thanks a lot E.P. as usual..

[davopnz]

mini serena too easy!

[EaglesPhan36]

Last one. I had this on my list and waited to watch the price, not much of a move.

Brands -125
Brands gets Klizan to open. Brands is one I followed through qualis and he continued to play solid tennis as he has early in the season. He scored a scalp of Chardy and Monfils on a surprise run through qualis in Doha to the semifinals. He played Gasquet tough there, losing 7-5, 7-5. After a little struggle in his first quali, he tuned it up and dominated to make the main draw. At his best, Brands has a commanding serve that can be tough to crack. Klizan showed improvement from a piss poor debut against Istomin in Brisbane. He battled Malisse to a three set loss in Sydney. Klizan will be an interesting guy to watch this year to see if he can follow up his breakout from the US Open. He was the Challenger King of Clay in 2012 and this is still a relatively inexperienced surface for him. Brands is good when he is engaged from the opening set, so a quick start would be a plus. He pushed Cilic to five sets at the US Open, blowing an 0-2 lead ... so he can play with some of the best talent on tour. This hasn't always been a surface he prefers either, but the form is good and I think Klizan may regress a little early in the season before he finds his footing.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yay. Another bozo who can't close. Duckworth about to choke away a 2-0 lead and go to a 5th set.

[goblue24]

Let's go Duckworth! Thanks for posting your plays. I'm following some of them and enjoy reading the well thought out reasoning behind them.

[EaglesPhan36]

These Aussie crowds are great. The chants for Mitchell and the Duck calls for Duckworth ... that's why this and the US Open easily my two faves. C'mon Ducky finish this shit b-yatch.

[gregm]

These Aussie crowds are great. The chants for Mitchell and the Duck calls for Duckworth ... that's why this and the US Open easily my two faves. C'mon Ducky finish this shit b-yatch.

The duck calls. I love em.

[Sharp Snake]

This has been one of the most frustrating matches I've ever watched. Duckworth has missed time and time again and just made some really bone headed plays. His tennis IQ is as low for a player I've seen in a very long time AND SOMEHOW he's still in this match.

[EaglesPhan36]

This will be 10x worse than Bemelmans blow job yesterday for me. Ack. Two sets to none. 4-1 and 40-15 on-serve and he's gonna f-ing yack it up.

[EaglesPhan36]

My kingdom for Mitchell to choke on serve. Feel like that is the only way old Duck fukk is gonna pull this out.

[EaglesPhan36]

Drama wise, great match. Betting wise on the guy who has choked so many chances ... barf.

[EaglesPhan36]

Exxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxhale! Duckworth wins. Holy Shit. Cannot believe he found a way.

[Sharp Snake]

Drama wise, great match. Betting wise on the guy who has choked so many chances ... barf.

Double barf but I'll take the cash.

[EaglesPhan36]

Nieminen is hitting some amazing shots against Haas.

[EaglesPhan36]

Baker has shit away both sets to Rosol. Led 6-5 in the 1st and couldn't serve it out. Led 5-3 in the 2nd and is about to lose it 7-5. Thought this 2nd set was going to almost seal the handicap of +5.5 since he was running away with it, but damn you chokin' fukk.

[goblue24]

Baker has shit away both sets to Rosol. Led 6-5 in the 1st and couldn't serve it out. Led 5-3 in the 2nd and is about to lose it 7-5. Thought this 2nd set was going to almost seal the handicap of +5.5 since he was running away with it, but damn you chokin' fukk.

These bastards certainly do not want to make it easy on you do they?

[goblue24]

Anyone have any thoughts on the Monfils/Dolgopolov match coming up later? Seems like it will be an entertaining one to watch.

[EaglesPhan36]

Of course Baker gets broken twice and loses the handicap in the 3rd.

Dolgopolov-Monfils is maybe the worst betting match of the tournament. It's 100% guesswork with those two guys.

[EaglesPhan36]

Guess I'll be happy with the push as Zemlja retires. They had two TB sets played, so 38 was still possible even in a straight set situation - but I guess he was still feeling the effects of the illness.

[Optional]

Cheer for Bedene to lift and take this please.

[gregm]

I went with Beden primarily on hype. I should have just stayed away and gone with stats. He has one great scalp with Wawrinka in some meaningless tourney in India. 36-6 on TI for Beden was sure sign of a train wreck coming.He has faced Challenger competition, hardly any noteworthy experience on wins on the major levels.

[kobee24]

Thanks for the Brands pick Eagles, bol with your future plays.

[EaglesPhan36]

Day 2

Duckworth -165
A battle of Aussie wildcards with Duckworth and Mitchell. Duckworth's prep work saw him play Istomin tough in a three set loss in Sydney where two of the three sets went to tie breaks. Mitchell has started with a couple of losses, including a disheartening straight set loss to Alex Bolt in Sydney qualis. Mitchell really has been in poor form dating back to last season where has now lost 14 of his last 16 matches overall. Duckworth played well here last year, banging home his first Grand Slam win and then taking a set off Tipsarevic in a 2nd round loss. Mitchell won their two previous encounters, a three set win in Burnie last January and the other way back in 2009 in a Futures event. Duckworth may have some motivation to hand his compatriot a loss finally + the form looks in his favor along with the winning experience here in 2012.


J.Baker +5.5 [+100]
Baker goes against Nadal Killer, Lukas Rosol. This could even be potentially an upset spot as Rosol has definitely leveled off since his 15 minutes of fame at Wimbledon last year. He's still got a potentially deadly serve and ground strokes, but his consistency level is not always there as with many young players. Baker made it through qualis and has shown some improvement after an off-season training with Andy Murray. The key here for me is Baker getting good solid service games to keep these sets tight. If he does, than even with a Rosol win - there should be a possibility he can cover this number and if Rosol shows his inconsistency early - Baker needs to pounce on those break opportunities and take a set.


J.P. Smith +125
Smith & Sousa go at it for the 2nd time in 2013. Sousa beat Smith in three in qualis in Sydney. The price closed at basically a pick 'em for that one and it only opened for this one with Sousa as a marginal favorite. Sousa is still a dirt baller at heart, so I think that's why this hasn't drifted further out. Smith has shown some skill on hard courts with an impressive Challenger Title last Summer at Winnetka where he beat Berankis for the title. His form early this season has been competitve with a 2-2 mark in qualis of Sydney and Brisbane combined. Both are seeking their 1st Grand Slam win. Gut feeling that trying to beat the same guy in roughly one week will be tougher this time and Smith will have his chances if he can save/convert those big break points.


Weintraub-Pella Under 38.5 [-120]
Weintraub made it through qualis, while Pella will be seeing his 1st action since winning the Challenger Tour Final in November. Seems definite potential either for rust for Pella or Weintraub having issues handling Pella's better overall game. Neither serve is overpowering, so I expect the break opportunities to come in this one and we could have some runaway sets.


Zemlja-Granollers Over 38 [-125]
This should be a real cracker of a match. If Zemlja is recovered from the illness that sidelined him in Auckland, he should pose a real threat to Granollers. Zemlja was playing very well early, pushing Gasquet in three hard sets in Doha and winning over Fognini in three there as well. He showed at the US Open last season that he is capable of playing at this level. Granollers isn't on his favorite surface, but he's still a tough nut on hard courts. He's a good grinder and will be tough to put away easily. This one seems earmarked for at least four sets which should give this number a shot to be met.
[PUSH]

Brands -125
Brands gets Klizan to open. Brands is one I followed through qualis and he continued to play solid tennis as he has early in the season. He scored a scalp of Chardy and Monfils on a surprise run through qualis in Doha to the semifinals. He played Gasquet tough there, losing 7-5, 7-5. After a little struggle in his first quali, he tuned it up and dominated to make the main draw. At his best, Brands has a commanding serve that can be tough to crack. Klizan showed improvement from a piss poor debut against Istomin in Brisbane. He battled Malisse to a three set loss in Sydney. Klizan will be an interesting guy to watch this year to see if he can follow up his breakout from the US Open. He was the Challenger King of Clay in 2012 and this is still a relatively inexperienced surface for him. Brands is good when he is engaged from the opening set, so a quick start would be a plus. He pushed Cilic to five sets at the US Open, blowing an 0-2 lead ... so he can play with some of the best talent on tour. This hasn't always been a surface he prefers either, but the form is good and I think Klizan may regress a little early in the season before he finds his footing.

Record: 7-4-1 [+3.21]

Absolute grind of a day. Worked it though for a unit. Just need to hit #6 and then there's a multitude of different ways to go to close it out!

Open Parlay #1 [7 Slots]
Slot 1: [R1] Malisse -510
Slot 2: [R1] Querrey -1200
Slot 3: [R1] Kuznetsova -460
Slot 4: [R1] Tomic -1400
Slot 5: [R1] Kohlschreiber -820

[EaglesPhan36]

Filling in one more slot on Open Parlay #1

Open Parlay #1 [7 Slots]
Slot 1: [R1] Malisse -510
Slot 2: [R1] Querrey -1200
Slot 3: [R1] Kuznetsova -460
Slot 4: [R1] Tomic -1400
Slot 5: [R1] Kohlschreiber -820
Slot 6: [R1] Doubles: Bryans -750

[EaglesPhan36]

Opening up a 2nd Open Parlay. Will likely have another play or two later on.

Open Parlay #2 [7 Slots]
Slot #1: [R2] Anderson -500
Slot #2: [R2] Li -1600
Slot #3: [R1] Doubles: Mattek-Sands/Mirza -620

Day 3

Savinykh +6.5 [-130]/ +600
To win one unit on the handicap. Half a unit on the money line. The Russian draws Cibulkova who definitely looked to be in trouble in the 1st set of her opener against Barty before class came through in what turned into an easy win in 3. She's had a mostly positive run to open 2012, but has been destroyed twice - once by Sloane Stephens and in the Sydney Final against Radwanska. She can be really good on her best day on this surface, but she's suffered a few odd losses in Melbourne over the years and has only made the 3rd round once in the last three years. Savinykh is one I followed through qualis and she has shown a fairly consistent game. This is one I marked for a potential upset because of the inconsistency we've seen from Cibulkova. Savinykh will have to get her serve in routinely and punish any break opportunities she is afforded, but I think she can definitely stay within this number if she plays smart.

Melzer -120
Seen quite a few on Bautista-Agut and he certainly has started the season hot with a scalp of Berdych in Chennai and he took a set off Tipsarevic in the final. Still, he's a relative newbie on the Grand Slam scene - although accomplished on this surface at the Challenger Level with a title on the surface at that level last year. His opener with Fognini showed the roller coaster a young player faces in these best of fives - cruising to a lead, then letting Fognini back in it and then ultimately closing it out easy in the 5th. Melzer was able to work on his game against an obviously rusty Kukushkin in an easy straight sets win. The serve was much more effective and that will be a big thing today coupled with the lefty game that can trouble many a player. Bautista-Agut hasn't played against a lefty in quite a bit. Melzer should look to exploit that advantage early and we'll see how the youngster adjusts.

Youzhny -5 [-118]
You saw the complete Youzhinator against Ebden in the 1st round. He still pushed this number in that five setter. It was really mostly on his racket in that match after the 1st set, but Youzhny floated in and out of the match with some maddening inconsistency at times. Still, he got breaks when he needed them and put pressure on Ebden's serve consistently, converting 6/12 break points. Donskoy is a talent for sure, but still very green against the big boys at this level. Looking at some of his early season results in qualis, he was completely outplayed by much lesser foes than Youzhny. I'm expecting Youzhny to show some better focus today and if his serve is steadier, I think he can cover this.