Stacocakes French Open Thread

**Stacocakes** · 05-31-09, 06:42 AM

Good luck with your plays Heehaww. Agree that Nadal will try to kill soderling in three sets. Looks like a good play to me
Davydenko and Verdasco is a toss up to me.Verdasco has been in great form during this tournament so its hard to bet against him. I think I am just going to pass on that. Really good odds on that Davy 3-1 though
Murray match has been tight so far.Match started off with back to back breaks but then nothing much has happened since that.Hopefully murray can find a way to win and get me some money
Safina is going to be very tough here. She is playing another great match today. Beating Rezai so bad that after the first set the coverage for all channels I could find switched to the murray match.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-31-09, 08:13 AM

Originally posted by HeeeHAWWWW

2 units Nadal-Soderling under27.5, -108 : see their last two matches. Nadal really doesn't like Soderling because of their history.

The Toad wants revenge!

When I'm wrong, I like to be catastrophically wrong. So much more stylish.

Of course, it could always cash by Soderling winning the two remaining sets. Ahem.

**Stacocakes** · 05-31-09, 12:20 PM

Wow shocked that Nadal lost.I didn't even get the chance to see the match.Fell asleep during the Murray match and wake up and the Nadal match is already over.Didn't see that coming.Soderling is such a mental case but good win for him.Heres is Federer's last chance to win the french open.Better take it.
Davy looks to be playing well.Didn't think he would have this easy of a time though.Hope he loses this third set so you can cash that 3-1 HeeHaww.Great odds on that
Murray wins his match which was good.Nice way to start the day

**Stacocakes** · 05-31-09, 01:34 PM

Sharapova in another tight match wow. That was close.I'll take it. Good day today hitting both my plays, murray and Sharapova.
Impressive win for Davy over verdasco. Fernando had been playing so well on clay that I though he might be the one to win that one but Davy was impressive.Sucks that you didn't get that 3-1 set bet Hee Haww
Quick quick look to tomorrows matches, will have some write ups about them a bit later:

Some great matches tomorrow wow, Del potro/tsonga, Roddick/Monfils, Haas/Federer

Serena Williams will beat Wozniak.Not sure how she got this far
You've got to favor Monfils over roddick
Del Potro over Tsonga
RObredo over Kohlschreiber
Federer over Haas

Not sure how many of these I will play yet. Pretty even matchups here and the odds are reflecting that. Will need today to think about it.

You guys like anything for tomorrow??

**cuteboy86hi** · 05-31-09, 02:37 PM

stacko do post ur final plays when you're done

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 05-31-09, 09:05 PM

One I like for tomorrow:

3.5 units Tsonga/DelPot over39.5 -117

Two big servers, and Tsonga has poor returns. The crowd roaring means lots of ups/downs, and it's near guaranteed to cash if it goes 4 sets - surely has to be one tiebreak between these two, and then only needs 36 63 63 in the remaining sets to cash (or alternatively 75 46 63 63).

I suspect Potro's clay pedigree will tell in the end, but Tsonga's netrushing and service bombs will make him pretty hard to crack, especially for someone unused to the really big stage.

Also had a really long look at the over40.5 in the kohly/robredo match, and decided against it. Wary of a Kohly letdown, and both these guys tend to lose far too many sets 62 or 63, not good for over betting when you need something like 75 46 64 63. Robredo also has the 3-0 h2h, mainly cos he's a difficult matchup for aggressive types on clay.

Fed-Haas: under and handicap are out, cos Haas is serving superbly recently, and Fed has lazily dropped sets vs Acasuso and PHM.

**Stacocakes** · 05-31-09, 09:26 PM

I like it heehaww.I can't see much I like matchwise for tomorrow so was considering maybe looking at the total games props.For all of the reasonably priced matches tomorrow there is no real way to predict who will win.Just depends who shows up.

I think Del Potro will win but I agree with you it won't be easy.
Was looking at the Roddick/Monfils match and was thinking that there might not be many breaks in that match. Both have pretty good serves and Roddicks return game is rather poor so I don't think there will be many breaks of serve in this match.41.5 games though seems very high.Passing on that.Wish it was a bit lower.
Federer usually drops a set every match so maybe a Fed 3-1 bet might be worth looking at
Serena will beat Wozniak but at odds of -420 its not something I would tell everyone to go and jump on

I think I may just take tomorrows matches and bet them live.I don't see anything jumping out at me here.
If I had a gun to my head and had to pick all of the matches I would pick the following:

Del Potro, Robredo, Monfils, Federer, Williams, Jankovic,Stosur, Kuznetsova

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 06:33 AM

Federer doesn't lose a point on his serve for the whole first set and of course loses the tiebreak by having 3 breaks against it in the tiebreak. Fed got the break in the second set though here so he should be able to finish this set off and tied it back at one set a peice
Woke up afer the first set in the serena match so was unable to get a bet in on Serena.Pissed me off.She won so easily
Still debating some action on monfils or Del Potro. Interesting point brought up by the announcer saying that there is a program each day for the french open and it has had a different french player on it each day. Every time a player is on the magazine they lose there next match. Happened with Cornet,Simon. Tsonga was on the program for today so theres the bad kharma for Tsonga right there.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-01-09, 06:57 AM

Murray now favourite to win Roland Garros at betfair ...... and just last week there were worries he might bananaskin vs Chela in the first round.

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 07:01 AM

Unbelievable scenes here. Federer down two sets to love
Can't believe he has the french Open title within grasp this year and he goes out and blows it. He even had the break in this second set and blew it.
Any rally over 3 or 4 shots Federer loses.He just can't keep the ball in play

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-01-09, 07:04 AM

Same situation at Aus Open, was 0-2 and playing horrendously, against another choker (Berdych).

Just took some Fed to win Roland Garros at +350.

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 07:15 AM

I have some fed at +150 to win this match.I think he has a chance to come back from 2-0 down

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-01-09, 07:22 AM

Have to say though, Haas serve has been amazing, just like for a while. That was what stopped me from going the under :_)

**Irish Jet** · 06-01-09, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by Stacocakes

I have some fed at +150 to win this match.I think he has a chance to come back from 2-0 down

I had money on Haas at +1200

I have a bad feeling though

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-01-09, 07:25 AM

Wowee, 3-3, 30-30 on Haas serve, Fed builds the point, gets the forehand chance he wants .... and nets. Then does it again.

One bad service game and this is over for Fed. Normally you'd think he was a massive fav for a tiebreak against Haas too, but he's so, so tight.

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 07:31 AM

Wow great save on that break point by Fed.Clutch shots
Finally showing some emotion here.If he can get this set somehow I think Haas will crumble

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 07:34 AM

I've been having some success with the live betting based on Feds serve in this third set. Once Haas holds you can get Federer at anywhere from +145 to +160. If you bet that and then Federer holds you can bet Haas at around -120 to -130. I've done it for the past three service games of ROger.I was of course shitting my pants the last service game where Haas had the break point. I don't think I am going to do it again though.

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 07:34 AM

Bp Fed cmon

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 07:35 AM

break Fed huge
CHoke time haas

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 07:45 AM

Break Federer.Good way to start the fourth set. Haas is mentally done

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-01-09, 07:51 AM

Looks like Fed has this. Going to sell that Fed +350 outright after this match though, maybe get +125. Murray will eat him alive in a final, he really knows how to draw errors from Fed (not at all certain Murray makes it to the final though).

This is Haas....

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 07:52 AM

haha no kidding that is haas

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 07:57 AM

Federer serving bagels for breakfast who wants one

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-01-09, 08:01 AM

They both want to sevre first next set, wouldn't be surprised if Federer dropped serve here.

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 08:02 AM

Haas going for a toilet break? He's been shitting all over the court for the last hour

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 08:03 AM

Federer has drastically improved his shots.Keeping the ball in play. Haas better be doing lines of coke in the washroom right now or else this match will be over in 20 mins

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-01-09, 08:10 AM

Dunno, Haas may have been preserving his shoulder for a bit. Gives him a long time to let the nerves settle if he accepted early the set was lost.

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-01-09, 08:12 AM

All about the Haas first serve, went missing third set.

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 08:13 AM

Fed has the advantage because theres no tiebreak.More likely a break of Haas's serve then a break of Federer's at this point

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 08:22 AM

Break Fed.Hell ya
3-2. Hold serve and its done

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 09:08 AM

GSM Federer. Exciting match.Haas bottled it in the third and was dead the rest of the way
Still can't pull the trigger on the Del Potro match so I am going to pass and play it in-running

**bigjonson** · 06-01-09, 09:19 AM

I am on the Del Potro train.

I think he is going to come through. We shall see.

**Stacocakes** · 06-01-09, 09:26 AM

Good start for Del Potro so far.Already has a break and might get a second one here
Tsonga looks overmatched

**HeeeHAWWWW** · 06-01-09, 10:04 AM

TSonga was awful first set, can't drop it that short against Potro. Bit closer now, Tsonga tightened up on the UEs, Potro making a few of his own.

Wind is affecting things too, Tsonga doesn't like that much.

Could do with a nice tiebreak to get my over back on track :-) Still, made a ton on the Fed match (cashed in that +350 outright at +130 at the exchange), so not too critical.

**Irish Jet** · 06-01-09, 10:09 AM

Tsonga's dominating this second set thus far anyways.