ATP/WTA Favorites Service Point Strategy

[TechnicalTrader]

Oh my God, I had it all wrong. I saw game 4 of set 2 as a trigger to chase the even service points, so i chased the even points in game 6, and the first even point in game 8, then I gave up the hit to BR being so big. So the chase actually triggered in game 6 of set 2, when Zverev lost the first even service point???
BR taking some damage because of me being stupid and not playing it right Thanks for the reply, I might give this another shot in X amout of time, because I really think you are on to something!

Don't worry about it. Just learn... learn, learn and learn. I F up all the time but the biggest F up is not learning from an F up...

[TechnicalTrader]

Here's something new I've been working on. I'd love to get some input from people willing to test it.

I am simply betting against an large dog on their serve to LOSE a certain service point. Here's how it goes:


Requirement 1) The dog you are playing against MUST be a heavy dog. Take a look at pregame odds and try to focus only on +160 (2.60) dogs only. We will be playing AGAINST them.

Requirement 2) The favorite MUST have a decent return. If his return rate is crap, lay off of him.

System)

1) Wait for dog to win and sweep two consecutive service games. Only take games in to consideration where the fav' did not score one single point.
2) Chose either an odd or even service to play against. Take a look at how the returning player (the fav) has done the entire match. Does he/she return odd services better? If so play the odds.
3) Wait for DOG TO WIN the first odd or even point.
4) Bet on the fav to return for a point.
5) Chase up to 5 points.


I will get in to specific details later if I see any interest here.

[gougola]

Sounds super interesting! I'm really fascinated by the opportunities in betting on tennis right now, definitely willing to help doing some back-testing for this system next week, or the week after that! Going to be very busy during the next few days..

[spankmythighs]

Here's something new I've been working on. I'd love to get some input from people willing to test it.

I am simply betting against an large dog on their serve to LOSE a certain service point. Here's how it goes:


Requirement 1) The dog you are playing against MUST be a heavy dog. Take a look at pregame odds and try to focus only on +160 (2.60) dogs only. We will be playing AGAINST them.

Requirement 2) The favorite MUST have a decent return. If his return rate is crap, lay off of him.

System)

1) Wait for dog to win and sweep two consecutive service games. Only take games in to consideration where the fav' did not score one single point.
2) Chose either an odd or even service to play against. Take a look at how the returning player (the fav) has done the entire match. Does he/she return odd services better? If so play the odds.
3) Wait for DOG TO WIN the first odd or even point.
4) Bet on the fav to return for a point.
5) Chase up to 5 points.


I will get in to specific details later if I see any interest here.

Lol Tech I was also looking into this. I was checking patterns of serve and return and there are definitely servers who are weaker on one side.

[spankmythighs]

I am also moving my serving strategy to a 4 odd/even loss with 1st serve % >60. I am in the midst of developing an app that has push notifications of when an odd/even serve has lost twice in a row. So if there are 4 losses we only chase twice but u will have to manually check the serve %

[TechnicalTrader]

Good stuff Spanks!

Here is a quick summary of my previous 121 live bets. I've been using my Bet365 testing account which has about $280.00 in it.



NOt sure if I can upload an image....

[TechnicalTrader]

Oh well, that didn't work. As you can see The new system is crushing the other systems. Mind you, I am playing ATP, WTA and ATP doubles...

Bet Type

Wagers

Net Profit

Return

Wins

Bets*

Win %*

Favorite to Return	$ 227.90	$ 82.81	36.3%	22	41	53.7%
Odd Service Point	$ 408.17	$ 3.57	0.9%	16	29	55.2%
Even Service Point	$ 189.07	$ 11.95	6.3%	14	23	60.9%
D Favorite to Return	$ 144.21	$ (47.76)	-33.1%	2	12	16.7%

These are my ATP only numbers:

Bet Type

Wagers

Net Profit

Return

Wins

Bets*

Win %*

Favorite to Return	$ 123.07	$ 61.10	49.6%	15	26	57.7%
Odd Service Point	$ 125.30	$ 27.90	22.3%	7	10	70.0%
Even Service Point	$ 37.70	$ 8.51	22.6%	6	7	85.7%
D Favorite to Return	$ -	$ -		-	-

"D favorite to return" are doubles, where I am playing the dog system. My advice would be to lay off of it! I'd clearly also play ATP!

[TechnicalTrader]

WTA:

Bet Type

Wagers

Net Profit

Return

Wins

Bets*

Win %*

Favorite to Return	$ 104.83	$ 21.71	20.7%	7	15	46.7%
Odd Service Point	$ 282.87	$ (24.33)	-8.6%	9	19	47.4%
Even Service Point	$ 151.37	$ 3.44	2.3%	8	16	50.0%
D Favorite to Return	$ -	$ -		-	-

[TechnicalTrader]

I am only going to play the following systems on the following Tours:


ATP:
Favorite to Return (high odds on the return, 5-6 game chase)
Odd/Even Service Game (the system which was originally suggested, but waiting for THREE points to miss)

WTA:
Favorite to Return (high odds on the return, 5-6 game chase)

[TechnicalTrader]

Sounds super interesting! I'm really fascinated by the opportunities in betting on tennis right now, definitely willing to help doing some back-testing for this system next week, or the week after that! Going to be very busy during the next few days..

Could you please take a look a few previous grand slam tournaments and check how the new system would've done? The early rounds are the best to check, due to matchups having strong favorites. I wouldn't bother to look at semi's and finals. Thanks

[TechnicalTrader]

Today's bets so far:

Date	Time	Bookmaker	Sport / League	Selection	Bet Type	Live Bet	Stake	Odds	FB	Win

17. Feb 17		bet365	Tennis, WTA	Hibino	Favorite to Return	Y	$ 4.07	2.00		Y
17. Feb 17		bet365	Tennis, WTA	Hibino	Favorite to Return	Y	$ 4.00	2.00		Y
17. Feb 17		bet365	Tennis, Challenger	Gombos	Favorite to Return	Y	$ 2.51	2.62		N
17. Feb 17		bet365	Tennis, Challenger	Gombos	Favorite to Return	Y	$ 4.06	2.62		N
17. Feb 17		bet365	Tennis, Challenger	Gombos	Favorite to Return	Y	$ 6.56	2.62		N
17. Feb 17		bet365	Tennis, Challenger	Gombos	Favorite to Return	Y	$ 10.61	2.62		Y

Yes, I am also testing some Challenger Tour games. "Y" is a win "N" is a loss. The key to playing live single service/return games is to be extremely observant. It's like scalping FX, you first define the big picture (or trend) then trade in that direction. These systems can be developed in to many, many other systems. I strongly suggest to anyone who is interested in trying this, to first define themselves and how they bet/trade. then go with a style or system which fits your style. I am pretty sure I have found what I m going to play with.

Oh, one other thing. If you are not tracking your bets on a spreadsheet you are wasting your time and are throwing money out the window!!!

[spankmythighs]

Heads up, Grigor is a terrible EVEN pt server

[TechnicalTrader]

Heads up, Grigor is a terrible EVEN pt server

Great pick up! How far back have you looked in to that. Wow, he is awful on evens!!

[spankmythighs]

I might go back 5 to 10 games and check top 40 serving from either side and then check returners

[TechnicalTrader]

My man.... Fading his even's and chasing four-five games is priceless!!! Awesome pickup. I hope he advances.

[TechnicalTrader]

Fun fact:

Through two sets and the first six games of the third set, Dimitrov's even serves have gone: 24:21. With odds around 2.37 - 2.5, you'dbe up an easy 4-6 units just by fading him straight up.

Assuming you risk only 0.5% of BR per bet and chase up to 8 games, you'd be up around 20 units or around 10% of BR. That is huuuuuge for one match!

[TechnicalTrader]

I might go back 5 to 10 games and check top 40 serving from either side and then check returners

Thoughts on fading Thiemon his even serves? I'm thinking about maybe waiting for him to win three in a row and then fade. I'll risk about 0.5% of BR and chase for 6 serves. Risking 12% on a chase going past 6 serves.

[Dego]

Could u share which websites u use for stats?

[TechnicalTrader]

I manually gather data from tennis24.

BTW, the return system on the Challenger Tour plays seem to work quite nice. I just added a good 10-15% to my BR on a few games last night and today.

I'd recommend to not risk to win more than 1.5% of BR on your first bet, a five game chase will cost you about 22.7% of BR. So by winning 16 chases, you can afford to lose one. Much, much better than other chases I've seen out there.

In order to play any of these systems straight up without chasing, you are going to need to time your bets very precise, otherwise the odds will catch up to you sooner or later.

[spankmythighs]

I havent done any further research but Im thinking about current tourneys too. See how a player does in recent rounds and start betting 4th round or qtrs

[spankmythighs]

I might look at creating another app that gathers top 40's previous matches and their serving results. Create an alert for odds and evens when it drops below a certain %

[spankmythighs]

...and use Tennis24 as my data resource

[spankmythighs]

Trying out chasing returner for 5 straight even/odd points when the server is <50% on either even or odd points. Im only using the first 2 even/odd points

[vengeano]

I have read this topic twice because i wanted to fully understand the tactic. I really like both chases (chase for the next 3 odd/even services after 3 lost ones and the returner one). I would like to stick to one of those but can't make up my mind yet. I don't have the time to check it by myself right now but i think that the returner chase, according to the rules that have been set by technical trader, is going to trigger less often than the other chase. What's your experience so far? And which of them both is more profitable ?I would also like to help you guys anyway you want me to (when i got the time to do so) so just let me know how! And sorry for any mistakes, english is not my strong language :P

[TechnicalTrader]

I have read this topic twice because i wanted to fully understand the tactic. I really like both chases (chase for the next 3 odd/even services after 3 lost ones and the returner one). I would like to stick to one of those but can't make up my mind yet. I don't have the time to check it by myself right now but i think that the returner chase, according to the rules that have been set by technical trader, is going to trigger less often than the other chase. What's your experience so far? And which of them both is more profitable ?I would also like to help you guys anyway you want me to (when i got the time to do so) so just let me know how! And sorry for any mistakes, english is not my strong language :P

I'd say that depends on your style of betting and the amount of time you have to watch live scores... for hours and hours. The original system will give you way more signals then the return strat. I enjoy the return strat more simply due to how I approach betting.

rgding backtesting, I am not sure if I'll be able to continue here. The MLB season is right around the corner and the NBA system I'm working on will suck up a lot of my time also. Feel free to take over or add as the thread matures!

[spankmythighs]

Just about MLB sweep time. Its a cash cow!

[Dego]

You got any system for MLB also?

[TechnicalTrader]

You got any system for MLB also?

Yep, I'll be running my MLB 1st inning system. Can't wait for the season to start!

[spankmythighs]

You got any system for MLB also?

Yes sir. 39-1 last yr!!!

[gougola]

Okay guys, finally got some backtesting done for the return point system. I looked in to 30+ matches at the Australian Open this year, and it seems that the underdog sweeping two service games to 0 just does not happen that often. Infact the chase only triggered ten times during 36 matches, going 7-3. Does not seem to be that profitable, but I think it is a system that can be perfected and used on certain players, for instance I noticed Troicki was frequently losing points after sweeping two games to 0.

[TechnicalTrader]

Okay guys, finally got some backtesting done for the return point system. I looked in to 30+ matches at the Australian Open this year, and it seems that the underdog sweeping two service games to 0 just does not happen that often. Infact the chase only triggered ten times during 36 matches, going 7-3. Does not seem to be that profitable, but I think it is a system that can be perfected and used on certain players, for instance I noticed Troicki was frequently losing points after sweeping two games to 0.

Thanks for the input. It's extremely difficult to backtest the return system because odds can vary anywhere from 2.0 to 3.5, depending on who is serving. What I've noticed is, odds move to your advantage, depending on how deep the chase goes, strictly because the server is serving well. So a chase which starts off with 2.1 odds might have 2.9-3.5 odds by the fourth leg.

Now, let's look at a chase with evolving odds and assume the odds go from 2.1 to 3.0 (2.10, 2.10 ,2.30, 2.30, 2.80, 2.80, 3.00, 3.00). That would be an 8 leg chase and assuming our target return is 1% BR, this chase would've costed us 39% of BR on an 8th leg loss.

The only chase I found which lasted that long was Wawrinka (1/8 finals) serving in the first set (game 3 and 5 were the triggers) and I am pretty sure those odds started off around 2.3 because Stan was ranked higher than Seppi. The Even chase ended after Leg 1 of the chase (game 7) but the odd chase didn't end until the tenth leg of the chase.

BUT, and here is the biggest BUT... You should only be playing against Dogs not against Fav's...

Could you please list the three losses??

Thanks,
TT

[TechnicalTrader]

Here ya go:

http://www.tennis24.com/match/bZn9YCAH/#point-by-point;2

Playing AGAINST Federer, you would have played the second game of the third set, after he swept game 8 and 10 of set 2. Federrer won the first two points and then swept again. Both the odd and even chase went to leg 2, he then won the first two points, so the chase went to leg 3 (of game 4 of set 3). Federer lost the third point of that game, ending the odd chase on leg 3. He then won the fourth point of that game, forcing a leg 5 and sure enough he lost the second point of game 6 ending the even chase.

I hope this cleared things up.

[TechnicalTrader]

Another example:

http://www.tennis24.com/match/CUdcIPNC/#point-by-point;2

Playing Raonic on the return:
-Triggers: games 9 of set 2 and game 2 of set 3
-Chases won during points 3 and 4 of game 6. A 3 leg chase for both the odd and even return chase.

[TechnicalTrader]

Games 3,5 and point 2 of game 7 are the triggers (Federer sweeping):

http://www.tennis24.com/match/Cj6I5iL9/#point-by-point;3

Chase won on point 4 of the 7th game.

[spankmythighs]

I have been testing the 2 service sweeps by either opponent and then wagering on the returner the next 2 service games on the 1st 2 odd points of those service games. So far I have gone 17-0 since saturday with exceptional odds usually 2.25 to 3.25 and chasing for those 4 points spread across the next 2 service games