ATP/WTA Favorites Service Point Strategy

[spankmythighs]

Bet365 always offers 1st point. It pops up when the previous gm is near completion.

[TechnicalTrader]

Bet365 always offers 1st point. It pops up when the previous gm is near completion.

Didn't even notice that tab because it is positioned slightly lower than the other tab (two points ahead!)

I messed around with your system yesterday while I was at a birthday and I must admit it is extremely difficult to play on a mobile device if you attempt to play several games simultaneously. I'm up six units today, winning 5 a bets and 1 b bet. Hell, 5 units on any given day is special, this system seems to have more in it though.

Great stuff and thank you again for the introduction. I'm really surprised this thread isn't getting more love!!

[TechnicalTrader]

Playing Djokovic, works like a charm! Up 6 units...

[Fabiossi]

What do we do if the serving player loses both 2 odd and even service in a row when he loses the service game to 0? we chase odd or even? or both?

[TechnicalTrader]

What do we do if the serving player loses both 2 odd and even service in a row when he loses the service game to 0? we chase odd or even? or both?

I'd just split my unit size in two and take both odds and evens. Theoretically you should play both, same unit size.

PS: Playing Djokovic, works like a charm! Up 6 units...


EDIT; System is up another 8 units as of now.

a) 6-2
b)2-0
c)0-0

[spankmythighs]

Beautiful. Too bad we gotta wait over a month till the new season after Paris ATP. I will post an updated record this aft and yes its slightly harder to do on a mobile. Thinking of working on an app that works with Tennis24 to alert when a fav has lost 2 even or 2 odd service points in a row.

[TechnicalTrader]

Beautiful. Too bad we gotta wait over a month till the new season after Paris ATP. I will post an updated record this aft and yes its slightly harder to do on a mobile. Thinking of working on an app that works with Tennis24 to alert when a fav has lost 2 even or 2 odd service points in a row.

Would be sweet to have an app. Just grabbed another two units on the Murray game! Nishikori up next!

[spankmythighs]

Nov 2nd Plays:

Goffin - W/D
Nishikori - W/A, W/A
Pouille - W/B, W/B, W/A
Cilic - W/B, W/A
Thiem - W/B, W/B, W/B
Tsonga - none
Simon - W/A, W/A, W/C, W/A
Djokovic - none
Lorenzi - W/B, W/A, W/D
Murray - W/A, W/C, W/A
Wawrinka - W/B, W/A, W/A

Overall 24 - 0 for yesterday bringing our new record to 198 - 1!

A bets - 12-12
B bets - 8-4
C bets - 2-2
D bets - 2-0

[TechnicalTrader]

Mahut - W/A, W/A, W/A, W/A, W/A
Isner - W/A, W/A
Troicki - L/D, W/A, W/A
Berdych - W/A, W/B, W/A, W/A
Sock - none
Lopez - W/B
Karlovic - none
Raonic - none

Experienced our first loss so far which equates to a 75.3 unit loss @ 1.44 avg odds. So new record so far up to Raonic is 174 - 1 or +98.7 units. Note there are quite a few A bet wins so maybe just play A bets. Need more testing to confirm but A bets today so far are 12-3.

I've been trying to find a way to filter out D bets and noticed that you might've miscalculated your total units on the losing bet. Shouldn't it be -113.7 units?

2.27 @1.44 to win 1
7.43 @1.44 to win 3.27
24.34 @1.44 to win 10.73
79.66 @1.44 to win 35.13
--------
113.7 units

at 1.41 odds,your total risk at a D bet is around 138.87 units.

[TechnicalTrader]

Nov 2nd Plays:

Goffin - W/D
Nishikori - W/A, W/A
Pouille - W/B, W/B, W/A
Cilic - W/B, W/A
Thiem - W/B, W/B, W/B
Tsonga - none
Simon - W/A, W/A, W/C, W/A
Djokovic - none
Lorenzi - W/B, W/A, W/D
Murray - W/A, W/C, W/A
Wawrinka - W/B, W/A, W/A

Overall 24 - 0 for yesterday bringing our new record to 198 - 1!

A bets - 12-12
B bets - 8-4
C bets - 2-2
D bets - 2-0

Correction= Djokovic -W/A (1st set, 5th game)

[spankmythighs]

I've been trying to find a way to filter out D bets and noticed that you might've miscalculated your total units on the losing bet. Shouldn't it be -113.7 units?

2.27 @1.44 to win 1
7.43 @1.44 to win 3.27
24.34 @1.44 to win 10.73
79.66 @1.44 to win 35.13
--------
113.7 units

at 1.41 odds,your total risk at a D bet is around 138.87 units.

I think you might be right. One way to omit the D bet is to have a recoup of any C losses over the next few bets. Kind of like I do with the sweep system in baseball. Any loss is recouped over the next 20 games. But for this system it might require a shorter period.

[spankmythighs]

As far as Djokovic goes u are talking about today. They plays I listed are from yesterday and he had no plays against Muller

[spankmythighs]

Nov 3rd 2016

Cilic - W/A, W/B, W/A, W/A
Gasquet - W/A, W/B, W/C
Raonic - W/A
Djokovic - W/A
Isner - W/A
Murray - W/A, W/B, W/A
Nishikori - W/C, W/A, W/A, W/A
Berdych - W/A, W/A

19-0 today!

A bets - 14-5
B bets - 3-2
C bets - 2-0

Great day!

New record: 217 - 1!

[TechnicalTrader]

I'm not a fan of added 300 filters to each system but this might help:

Added filter; Only place bets on players ranked in the top 25 of the "service games won". Below are the results from the last three days, take a look at the performance when you add the filter:

(I added the service games won rankings, to those who ranked under the top 25)
Mahut - W/A, W/A, W/A, W/A, W/A
Isner - W/A, W/A
Troicki - L/D, W/A, W/A 33
Berdych - W/A, W/B, W/A, W/A
Sock - none
Lopez - W/B
Karlovic - none
Raonic - none

Goffin - W/D 38
Nishikori - W/A, W/A
Pouille - W/B, W/B, W/A 26
Cilic - W/B, W/A
Thiem - W/B, W/B, W/B
Tsonga - none
Simon - W/A, W/A, W/C, W/A 47
Djokovic - none
Lorenzi - W/B, W/A, W/D 50
Murray - W/A, W/C, W/A
Wawrinka - W/B, W/A, W/A

Cilic - W/A, W/B, W/A, W/A
Gasquet - W/A, W/B, W/C 34
Raonic - W/A
Djokovic - W/A
Isner - W/A
Murray - W/A, W/B, W/A
Nishikori - W/C, W/A, W/A, W/A
Berdych - W/A, W/A

Before filter:

a: 37-20
b: 13-6
c: 4-2
d: 1-1

assuming we get low odds on our d game loss and get hit with a loss of 113 units, we would be down a good 60 units over the last three days. Here's where things start to get interesting. Assuming we don't bet on players ranked outside of the top 25 service games won rankings, our new record would be:

a: 29-11
b: 9-2
c: 2-0
d: 0-0

A fourth game chase might not even be needed. You could possibly only play a two game chase, risking 10 units on a b. game loss and in that case, you'd still be up over the last three days

[TechnicalTrader]

Up 4 units on the Isner/Sock game. Today could be a very profitable day with all of these "first games won" studs!

[spankmythighs]

Thanks for the input Trader! Awesome work. Like the filter too.

[spankmythighs]

This system is coming together. Tennis is so overlooked.

[spankmythighs]

Can you dig up Challenger Top 25 service points winners?

[TechnicalTrader]

No problem buddy. I'm currently using this to filter out top 25 players:

http://www.atpworldtour.com/en/stats/service-games-won/2016/all/all/

I'll see if I can find anything for Challenger Top 25

[TechnicalTrader]

Here's another interesting fact:

Isner, who is second to Nadal in first serve % at 69% did the following over his last 5 games, not including today's:

First Serve Point won, using a three point chase (if he loses 1st serve, wait till next service game and repeat)

a: 29-11
b: 9-2
c: 1-1

That C bet loss would've costed 26.5 units, when averaging 1.36 odds. +39 units and -26.5 isn't too bad.

Guess who he lost that C game to.... Ferrer, who is ranked 6th in return points won. A strategy here could be; Take top 25 1st Serve players and ONLY play against Under Top 25 Serve Return players.

I'll look in to this later, but it could be a nice little spin off from what you've come up with!!

[spankmythighs]

Here's another interesting fact:

Isner, who is second to Nadal in first serve % at 69% did the following over his last 5 games, not including today's:

First Serve Point won, using a three point chase (if he loses 1st serve, wait till next service game and repeat)

a: 29-11
b: 9-2
c: 1-1

That C bet loss would've costed 26.5 units, when averaging 1.36 odds. +39 units and -26.5 isn't too bad.

Guess who he lost that C game to.... Ferrer, who is ranked 6th in return points won. A strategy here could be; Take top 25 1st Serve players and ONLY play against Under Top 25 Serve Return players.

I'll look in to this later, but it could be a nice little spin off from what you've come up with!!

Sweet insight. I was actually just thinking about that aswell. Widdle this strategy down to the most profitable way to go about it. Im glad you see some value in this. Thanks again

[spankmythighs]

Looking at those stats. Tsonga and Raonic are amazing service game winners but are both out of the top 25 for return games won. So Im thinking play both. And only play Murray against Berdych as Andy is a great returner.

[spankmythighs]

Lots of A and B winners in Novaks match.

[TechnicalTrader]

Looking at those stats. Tsonga and Raonic are amazing service game winners but are both out of the top 25 for return games won. So Im thinking play both. And only play Murray against Berdych as Andy is a great returner.

I'm only going to play the Murray game, Murray side. I hve the feeling the Tsonga/Raonic game could get complicated. I'd only play it if I can get +1.55 odds.

BTW, Djokivic, fist serve system went 4-1-1 today with only one game going to the C bet

[TechnicalTrader]

Another interesting stat for the Murray match:

Murray wins 44% of his return games, during his last 10 matches he has gone 32-43, 43% The last time he played Berdych, he won 7 of his 13 returns. I amgoing to play it like this:

1) wait for Berdych to win his first service point
2) play Murray to win Berdych's next first service point
3) chase thee points

I am hoping we can get odds around 2.2-2.4. If so, a 4 game chase would only cost me 8.8 units. This might even be a better play, better than what I was looking at later!

EDIT; the current in game odds for first point, second game is 2.2 for Murray. A 4 game chase would cost 10.3 units. I'll give it a shot

[TechnicalTrader]

1st point for Murray, game 4 is on!


EDIT
Bingo: 1 unit won!

[TechnicalTrader]

Second chase:

Game 10, first point winner; Murray 2.25

EDIT; bet a loss, chasing : first point winner, game 12 - Murray, 2.25
EDIT2; bet b loss, chasing : first point winner, game 14 - Murray, 2.37

[TechnicalTrader]

LOL, didn't really work. Not going to do that again. Berdych won 4 first serves in a row against Murray. Really surprised that happened!

[spankmythighs]

Stick to the original strategy I think. Its working great.

[spankmythighs]

Won a couple units on Cilic. Was hoping for a couple in Murray/Raonic match but Raonic pussied out

[TechnicalTrader]

Good stuff. I was also able to grab a few units on that match.

Watching WTA finals and am getting 1.72 - 1.61 odds on service points. A 4 game chase seems much more reasonable there and the data I've been looking at is pretty decent regarding past matches and success rates of service points. The WTA looks like a legit tour to play!

6 games in to the finals and two A bets have already won!

[TechnicalTrader]

5 units won. One of them went to a D bet, but with odds at ca. 1.8 on Svitolona's service point, it was manageable, it did get tight though. Risking anything more than 1.2% BR as your unit size is extremely dangerous! 1% is better when odds are sub 1.65 or so. Assuming I didn't play that D bet, I would've been down 19 units.

Losing a 4 game chase at 1.44 odd's and risking to win only 1% of your BR, will wipe you out instantly. I'd even recommend to not risk more than 1.1% BR (on A bet) on odds lower than 1.5, this way a d game loss will "only" cost you 56% of BR. Just my two cents on how I money manage.

I'd also like to watch the mens doubles and see if the trend continues there!

[TechnicalTrader]

Didn't touch the Murray game,or rather I didnt touch his service games. Was only getting odds around 1.33, simply not worth it if you ask me. I did play a reverse strategy bet where I waited for Murray to win 4 odd or even service points in a row and played Isner to win on Murrays service point. The odds were around 3.50, so a 6 game chase was easy to handle, even a ten game chase would only cost you 27 times your targeted profit. I ended up winning a C game, very easily.

This is something I will definitely do in the future, if the books are willing to completely over-juice the favorite line, I'll nail the dogs' line.

Spank, let me know what your thoughts are.

[spankmythighs]

Ya the odds were heavily juiced on Murray but between the 2 of them I think I squeezed out 4 or 5 units. I like the reverse too when odds are really juiced. Something to look at. Gonna play some Challenger events tomorrow. Keep it rolling.

[spankmythighs]

Something else to look at is what hand they are and how well they do from either side of the service points. I notice some do alot better on odd rather than even.