Lightning tennis thread

[Lightning]

CHALLENGER PLAYS

MULTI

Sela x Basic x Andujar x Dancevic - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

ROMANIA

- Satral to WIN 2-0 - $1.7 - TWO STAKES

- Majchrzak to WIN - $1.6 - ONE STAKE

KAOHSIUNG

- Ebden to WIN - $2.8 - ONE STAKE

- Sela/Pecotic UNDER 20.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

COLUMBUS

- Becker/Groth OVER xx - $xx - TWO STAKES

Whatever the released line is on bet365, take it. It'll most likely be 23.5 or 24.5.

[Lightning]

Easily the worst day of handicapping I've ever had... a day like that singlehandedly destroys months and months and months of hard work. So discouraging. Never have a +5 day of profit, but it seems every second day is a -5 day loss. Makes me want to hit my head against the wall.

ATP METZ

- Muller/Thiem OVER 23.5 games - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

- Mahut/Goffin OVER 22.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

MULTI

- Agut x Pouille - $2.1 - ONE STAKE (Petersburg, Metz)

ATP TOKYO

- Sasnovich +4.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER MULTI

- Ungur x Haase x Satral x Andujar - $3.6 - HALF STAKE (first three are Sibiu Challenger, last one is Kenitra Challenger)

[Lightning]

+1.3 yesterday.

ATP SHENZHEN QUAL.

- Harrison/Rungkat UNDER 19.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

WTA WUHAN QUAL.

- Cornet to WIN - $2 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER COLUMBUS

- Torpegaard +3.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

- Becker to WIN - $1.5 - ONE STAKE

MULTI

Donaldson x Soeda x Kovalik - $2 - ONE STAKE (First two are Chengdu Qual., Shenzhen Quals)

[Lightning]

Getting my plays out early for tomorrow because I have work all day.

ATP SHENZHEN QUAL.

- Fabbiano to WIN - $1.4 - TWO STAKES

- Laaksonen to WIN - $3 - HALF STAKE

ATP CHENGDU QUAL.

- Moriya to WIN - $2.4 - ONE STAKE

WTA WUHAN

- Vinci to WIN - $2.3 - ONE STAKE

WTA TASHKENT QUAL.

- Shapatava to WIN - $2.3 - ONE STAKE

ATP ST. PETERSBURG

- Wawrinka to WIN - $1.35 - TWO STAKES

ATP METZ

- Pouille to WIN - $2.4 - ONE STAKE

[JohnHanson]

I am on Laaksonen - Zverev. M over 21,5 @1,925. Maybe look for a small bet on the ml Laaksonen too.

Moriya I am too. I dont know why he is this big dog, he won at 16.09.16 in Nanchang 6-1, 7-6 vs. Matosevic with strong statistic. Maybe overrated because the win over Donaldson now in straights.

Pouille too, waiting for the pinnacle line. I am insta grab all odds at ~ 2,00 ml.

Good luck us.


[Edit] Wow, pinnacle opened @2,9x for Pouille.

[gorwin068]

I am on Laaksonen - Zverev. M over 21,5 @1,925. Maybe look for a small bet on the ml Laaksonen too.

Moriya I am too. I dont know why he is this big dog, he won at 16.09.16 in Nanchang 6-1, 7-6 vs. Matosevic with strong statistic. Maybe overrated because the win over Donaldson now in straights.

Pouille too, waiting for the pinnacle line. I am insta grab all odds at ~ 2,00 ml.

Good luck us.


[Edit] Wow, pinnacle opened @2,9x for Pouille.

Good call from you again dude, Moriya WON after losing the first set, tailed it...

[Lightning]

Yeah Moriya did well for us all ahaha

[Lightning]

I am on Laaksonen - Zverev. M over 21,5 @1,925. Maybe look for a small bet on the ml Laaksonen too.

Moriya I am too. I dont know why he is this big dog, he won at 16.09.16 in Nanchang 6-1, 7-6 vs. Matosevic with strong statistic. Maybe overrated because the win over Donaldson now in straights.

Pouille too, waiting for the pinnacle line. I am insta grab all odds at ~ 2,00 ml.

Good luck us.


[Edit] Wow, pinnacle opened @2,9x for Pouille.

Sory, I didn't see this, had work. Unfotunately Laaksonene didn't perform as well as we would've liked

[gorwin068]

need Wawrinka to come back now
one set down, but one break up in second set, possibly going to deciding set

[JohnHanson]

gl gorwin068

@Lightning: Yeah.. Maybe underrated M. Zverev a bit. He lookes very strong on this surface. I definitly playing the - 1,5 sets @1,5x vs. Zhe Li in the next round. Maybe even the under 20 @1,91. Normaly M. Zverev bounce this weakers players from the court.

[gorwin068]

need Wawrinka to come back now
one set down, but one break up in second set, possibly going to deciding set

Wawrinka is ON FIRE now...3-0 in final set now

[JohnHanson]

Pouille did the job well @2,9x

@Lightning: Say if it is to much "spam" in your thread

[gorwin068]

Wawrinka is ON FIRE now...3-0 in final set now

Wawrinka got broken back...3-2 now...Come on Stan

[Lightning]

Pouille did the job well @2,9x

@Lightning: Say if it is to much "spam" in your thread

No of course not man! The discussion is good!

[gorwin068]

Gosh...Wawrinka you really Lost in the end, 3-0 in final set, all the momentum was on you already...really disappointing for your Lost(and my stakes)...
Just feel like this Russian tournament is a really weird one...Raonic...and Wawrinka now...
Anyway congrats Zverev...first ATP title...

[JohnHanson]

@Lightning: Yeah.. Maybe underrated M. Zverev a bit. He lookes very strong on this surface. I definitly playing the - 1,5 sets @1,5x vs. Zhe Li in the next round. Maybe even the under 20 @1,91. Normaly M. Zverev bounce this weakers players from the court.

6-2, 6-3. M. Zverev nailed it, got the moniez back. Zero break points again. Have a eye in the next round. He loves this new surface

[Lightning]

This week's been absolutely terrible ahaha, probably one of my worst ever. The funniest thing is, I only had two bad days, and the rest were in profit, but those two bad days were realllyyyyyyy bad days

[Lightning]

Adding three outsiders for tonight:


NEW ORLEANS CHALLENGER - ONE STAKE EACH

- Gojowczyk to WIN - $2.20
- Stakhovsky to WIN - $2.1
- Brands to WIN - $2.75

All better players on the quick indoor hard courts than their opponents. Value is there for all of them.

[Lightning]

After a bit of a review after an ordinary couple of weeks, I've identified some areas of improvement that I could work on, and as such, have changed up my tipping style a little bit.

I also want to remind everybody that any 'player to WIN' bet I make is placed on bet365, because they require the whole match to be completed. I'm not going to go through and label each one though, so keep that in mind moving forward.

ATP SHENZHEN

- Vesely -4.5 games - $2.1 - ONE STAKE

- Robert to WIN - $2.2 - ONE STAKE

ATP CHENGDU

- Stepanek to WIN - $2 - ONE STAKE

- Thompson OVER 4.5 FIRST SET games - $1.8 (Sportsbet) - ONE STAKE

- Lorenzi to WIN - $2.25 - TWO STAKES

- Carreno-Busta to WIN - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

- D. ** to WIN - $2.75 - HALF STAKE


WTA TASHKENT

- Buyukakcay x Tsurenko x Soylu - $2.5 - HALF STAKE

[Lightning]

Unfortunate that a forum asterisks out a player name, the guy is chinese and his first name is Di. His last name is W U (put the last two capital letters together)

[Lightning]

Wuhan odds weren't available last night, so...

WTA WUHAN

- Mladenovic OVER 3.5 FIRST set games - $!.75 - ONE STAKE

- Wozniacki to WIN 2-0 - $1.8 (bet365) - ONE STAKE

- Muguruza to WIN 2-0 - $1.9 (bet365) - ONE STAKE

- Kvitova x Kasatkina - $1.85 - HALF STAKE

NEW ORLEANS CHALLENGER

- Roger-Vasselin x Millot - $1.9 - TWO STAKES

- Rublev to WIN - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

Love both these plays... both guys in the first parlay are French are love the quicker, indoor surface. Rublev also played very well in St. Petersburg, demolishing Kukushkin and coming VERY close to beating Sousa.

[Jeff_Black]

Mate don't be afraid to take a day off or two when you need to. It's easy to keep going after a good run but it's harder to after a bad run.
Out of the 365 days in a year tennis probably takes up maybe 300? Considering on my tennis tv I churn through maybe 150-200 not including slams or davis cup it's always a long and exhausting year for the players and fans and punters :P
came back and looked at the board tosay after enjoying the nfl yesterday and mowing the lawn today and felt great, and didnt feel pressured to pick a winner, I think that's when someone can be at their worst
bol anyway

[Lightning]

Mate don't be afraid to take a day off or two when you need to. It's easy to keep going after a good run but it's harder to after a bad run.
Out of the 365 days in a year tennis probably takes up maybe 300? Considering on my tennis tv I churn through maybe 150-200 not including slams or davis cup it's always a long and exhausting year for the players and fans and punters :P
came back and looked at the board tosay after enjoying the nfl yesterday and mowing the lawn today and felt great, and didnt feel pressured to pick a winner, I think that's when someone can be at their worst
bol anyway

Absolutely Jeff, you're right. I often have mini-breaks away, and it's true that you do feel refreshed. Tbh, I just enjoy it so much that I hate missing it haha. For me it's more of a game, a game where you're constantly learning. This is my first year doing it full time, and I'll only get better as I learn and watch more.

[Lightning]

REMEMBER, all 'to WIN' bets are with bet365.

ATP CHENGDU

- Lajovic OVER 4.5 FIRST set games - $2.25 (sportsbet) - ONE STAKE

ATP SHENZHEN

- A. Zverev to WIN 2-0 - $2.2 - ONE STAKE

- Paire to WIN - $1.7 - TWO STAKES

WTA TASHKENT

- Tig to WIN - $2.75 - ONE STAKE

WTA WUHAN

- Keys to WIN 2-0 - $2.1 - ONE STAKE
- Keys -3.5 games - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

- Cibulkova +3.5 games - $1.9 - TWO STAKES

- Kerber to WIN - $1.5 - ONE STAKE

- Jankovic to WIN - $1.7 - ONE STAKE

CHALLENGER NEW ORLEANS

- Sidorenko to WIN - $4 - ONE STAKE (want to hit overs for this match as well, but might have to wait for in play).

- Benneteau to WIN - $1.6 - ONE STAKE

CRAZY MULTI (A bit of fun, but also not the worst $48 multi I've ever seen. Using all the games that I considered but eventually discarded for today)

- Mathieu (Orleans Challenger) x Flipkens x Nara (last two TAshkent) x Lorenzi x Khachanov (last two Chengdu) x Wozniacki (Wuhan) x Fognini x A. Zverev (last two Shenzhen) - $48 - QUARTER STAKE
-

[Lightning]

Just the few for today...

ATP CHENGDU

- Kyrgios -1.5 games - $1.7 - TWO STAKES
- Kyrgios to WIN 2-0 - $2.6 - ONE STAKE

- Baghdatis -1.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

WTA WUHAN

- Kvitova to WIN - $1.8 - ONE STAKE

- Radwanska to WIN - $1.5 - ONE STAKE

ORLEANS CHALLENGER

- Brown x Herbert - $2.2 - ONE STAKE

- Gojowcyzk/Brands OVER 22.5 games - $1.9 - ONE STAKE


In Tashkent, I do think Hibino has some value on her moneyline price, but I was hoping for a +5.5 rather than a +4.5. If that line shifts one, I might jump on.

[Gargo]

You really think Kvitova can come back with another win? I am liking Konta in this spot.

[Jeff_Black]

I was thinking of jumping on the Kyrgios train but I have no idea where his head is at. Looks like a world beater one day but other days doesn't give a crap.
Can beat Anderson and tbh has the game to win well so I decided to leave it for a day and see how he goes

[Lightning]

You really think Kvitova can come back with another win? I am liking Konta in this spot.

Honestly, I think she can win the tournament. The way she played physically was incredible (winner after winner, strong returns, blew the number one off the court). The way she was mentally though, was even better. It was world class. She saved break point after break point, nailing first serve after first serve. She put away every single shot she had to. She resisted everything Kerber threw at her, and that everything was a lot. She suffered cramps at the end, and still found a way to save two more break points and win the match.

I think if you put that much effort in mentally and physically, the tournament means something to you. Konta is not Kerber. Kvitova could rock up and smash her 6-2 6-2 if she played like she did yesterday. Kvitova will beat anyone in the game if she plays like that. Honestly, if it was anyone other than Kerber, it would have been a huge beating.

[Lightning]

I was thinking of jumping on the Kyrgios train but I have no idea where his head is at. Looks like a world beater one day but other days doesn't give a crap.
Can beat Anderson and tbh has the game to win well so I decided to leave it for a day and see how he goes

You're right, he's in and out, but I'll give him credit - he's improved a lot recently and he usually does put in a pretty decent effort. He's not Tomic haha. Serving the three break points and then breaking back straight away showed a bit of mental fortitude.

I'm not worried so much about him vs. the bigger players - he'll raise his game for them - it's the lower ranked ones that I'm not sure about haha

[Gargo]

Nice call on Kvitova, she was wayyy too much for Konta

[Lightning]

Nice call on Kvitova, she was wayyy too much for Konta

Thanks. I think I'll take her agian today as well.

[Lightning]

ORLEANS CHALLENGER

- Rublev to WIN - $1.9 - ONE STAKE

WTA TASHKENT

- Hibino to WIN - $2.4

WTA WUHAN

- Cibulkova to WIN - $2.4 - ONE STAKE

- Kvitova to WIN - $2.4 - ONE STAKE

ATP CHENGDU

- Dimitrov SECOND set handicap: -1.5 games - $1.55 - ONE STAKE

Cheers

[Jeff_Black]

You're right, he's in and out, but I'll give him credit - he's improved a lot recently and he usually does put in a pretty decent effort. He's not Tomic haha. Serving the three break points and then breaking back straight away showed a bit of mental fortitude.

I'm not worried so much about him vs. the bigger players - he'll raise his game for them - it's the lower ranked ones that I'm not sure about haha

I'll probably be a lot more choosy when picking him...really he should have beaten Anderson, had the mini break in the second set tb, twice and then phoned it in once he lost the TB. Showed he was more then capable of winning.

Shit worries me when he says stuff like he doesn't see himself playing tennis at 30 and would retire if he won the US Open. If he is not in a position to win slams and masters (like SFs and such, maybe Finals) in 4-5 years then I would definately consider him an underachiever/waste of talent.

[Lightning]

Adding:

NEW ORLEANS

- Brown 2-0 - $2 (William Hill) - ONE STAKE

- Bemelmans to WIN - $2.7 - ONE STAKE

[JohnHanson]

On Bemelmans I am in too. - very lucky win from Herbert yesterday over Robredo.

Brown looks on fire too. But Brown are Brown. Dont like personal back him.