Moar Threads? Moar Picks

**Hardcoar** · 04-12-15, 12:26 PM

I don't get these odds at all. I really don't. They should be reversed and then some.

**fitguy67** · 04-12-15, 01:37 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Queer @ 2.06 – 10 units

in non-Betfair terms (ie. with the 6.5% tax pre-accounted for) that'd be 1.9911 right?

not being a smartass at all, and would have no right to be, as i notice you always account for it on your updates, anyway...just want to calibrate my line-shopping target price with yours...

i agree with you that this new-look leaner/meaner Querrey should find Sock less trouble than Verdasco was yesterday...Querrey showed great business-like composure finishing that 3rd set yesterday once he got up a break...not tentative and self-sabotaging like that pudgier Queerboy that's cost us all too much money in the past

**Hardcoar** · 04-12-15, 01:44 PM

Since I use Betfair so much nowadays I get a decent discount so my effective commission is about 4.5% currently, but as 6.5% is the standard that's what I'm using for the purposes of (grading) this thread.

As for the match, even discounting (which you obviously shouldn't be) the lack of experience in later stages of ATP tournaments, there is no way in f*cking hell Suck is favorite. He may keep it close, he may even win, but I simply cannot abstain a significant bet in this spot. A try on Queer 2-1 @ 4.3+ might be worth it too.

**Hardcoar** · 04-13-15, 08:52 AM

BURIALLY REKT!

Many opportunities missed, many gifted away. Congratulations to Suck on his title and E-Phan for not hedging much!

Moving on...

**beefcake** · 04-13-15, 11:07 AM

Some good dogs and TV coverage for the Sarasota chally my man...

**VikesPhanatic84** · 04-13-15, 11:15 AM

What do u think of delbonis losing?

**beefcake** · 04-13-15, 11:25 AM

Lot of action on Nishioka man. Boner is by heads and tails better player obviously. Think Novikov has a better chance.Bu who knows where Delboners head is playing a shit prep chally..

**Hardcoar** · 04-13-15, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by beefcake

Some good dogs and TV coverage for the Sarasota chally my man...

Do they have Mike C? Everybody loves Mike C!

**Hardcoar** · 04-13-15, 02:31 PM

I think Delbonis destroys Nishioka. IMO the only chance he loses is if Japman#2 goes full Cilic (which he is technically incapable of), or Delbonis really doesn't care or is injured.

Edit: Delbonis @ 1.3 is f*cking tempting...

**fitguy67** · 04-13-15, 02:53 PM

i took Delbonis as a small 33%-interest loan, payable within 90mins...with eyes wide open that there's always a chance i get stiffed (ie. the jap miraculously goes all-Cilic=divine-intervention or it was all "scripted" from the start=mob-intervention)...

**kenz** · 04-13-15, 03:03 PM

Delboner is an Argentinian fixer and a head-case. Would not back him on a challenger even versus a shitty Japman. BOL guys

**Hardcoar** · 04-13-15, 03:06 PM

You have a point Kenz, but do the chances of him dying on court, fixing the match, as well as his opponent going full Cilic respectively amount to more than 30%??

**kenz** · 04-13-15, 03:10 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

You have a point Kenz, but do the chances of him dying on court, fixing the match, as well as his opponent going full Cilic respectively amount to more than 30%??

If Isner can go Cilic, anyone can

**Hardcoar** · 04-13-15, 03:14 PM

When did Isner do that, then?

**Hardcoar** · 04-13-15, 03:14 PM

Long second game or what??

**kenz** · 04-13-15, 03:17 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

When did Isner do that, then?

vs Nishikori in Miami

**Hardcoar** · 04-13-15, 03:19 PM

Yeah that was close enough, ha!

**fitguy67** · 04-13-15, 09:16 PM

anyhow i collected my full ~~stake plus winnings~~...er principle plus interest on that 2-hour/ 33%-payout "investment" on delbonis...

but kenz' warning about avoiding gift-like odds on ATP guys slumming in Challengers has stuck in my craw

"strategically allocating one's effort to maximize income" is well-known in any/all professions...so the "buyer/bettor beware"...it generally is far less rampant than tin-hatters would have you believe but at the same time it is far more common than the NEVER-myth that plain-vanilla dolts would have you believe...not anything to get obsessed about...but we should be wised up to it so that our "spidey sense" can help us avoid/minimize the downside of potential trap situations

**Hardcoar** · 04-14-15, 12:38 AM

Mannarino @ 1.67 – 5 units

**Hardcoar** · 04-14-15, 12:45 AM

Vesely @ 3.25 – 2 units

**Hardcoar** · 04-14-15, 12:46 AM

Struff @ 3.95 – 2 units

**Hardcoar** · 04-14-15, 06:59 AM

Can't get a thing right at the moment.

**lucasdawg** · 04-14-15, 07:03 AM

verdasco worth a go?

**Hardcoar** · 04-14-15, 07:08 AM

I don't think so, no.

**lucasdawg** · 04-14-15, 07:26 AM

ahhs thanks! was leaning the over but put abit on verdasco already. bol with your plays

**Hardcoar** · 04-14-15, 07:30 AM

Verdasco looked great until he played against Queer, at which point he f*cked up badly. He has made a long trekkkk to Europe and the conditions are very different on these courts as well. I don't trust him at all and I expect Dimitrov to be solid and deliver.

**lucasdawg** · 04-14-15, 08:05 AM

thanks for the useful information hardcoar!

**Hardcoar** · 04-14-15, 08:09 AM

A bit late, perhaps...

I try to reply as soon as I'm able to.

**lucasdawg** · 04-14-15, 08:17 AM

its aight,

on tomic and mayer 1set now

**Hardcoar** · 04-14-15, 10:25 AM

Schiavone @ 2.12 – 5 units

**Hardcoar** · 04-15-15, 02:11 PM

Haddad-Maia @ 3.55 – 2 units

**Hardcoar** · 04-15-15, 03:49 PM

Devvarman @ 4.8 – 3 units

**sluggy1616** · 04-15-15, 09:55 PM

cmon man. agut or ms pova? u dont see no value?

**sluggy1616** · 04-15-15, 10:06 PM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

cmon man. agut or ms pova? u dont see no value?

and big john getting in 74 and 78% of 1st serves 1st 2 matches. gotta be some value there against ass-picker

**sluggy1616** · 04-16-15, 08:50 AM

Sorry bout spamming your thread! Got a little carried away