SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

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  • Hardcoar
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 02-17-13
    • 15606

    #596
    Lu @ evens down a break seems great IMO. Know anything about his status??
    Comment
    • SirtySree
      SBR MVP
      • 12-19-13
      • 2370

      #597
      Originally posted by Hardcoar
      I like Ymer's chances but @ 2.1 isn't too enticing...
      Yea not too enticing. Unless he goes down a set, never much value with him nowadays.
      Originally posted by beefcake
      Look at Cao's price falling vs Forever Recovering from injury Zemlja at +600!! Like that
      Na not really feeling it. Zemlja has won 2 finals now in his last 4 tournaments and made 3 finals in those 4. Think he is slowly getting back into some form. Dont really know anything about Cao other than off his stats. Seems ok bt dont think he should trouble Zemlja much.
      Originally posted by Hardcoar
      Lu @ evens down a break seems great IMO. Know anything about his status??
      No clue how he is coming back from injury. No stream either to verify. Ti Chen has had some decent wins on carpet but doubt he should come anywhere close to beating Lu if he is even just 75% healthy. He got the break back now as well.
      Comment
      • Hardcoar
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 02-17-13
        • 15606

        #598
        If you haven't been banned by 365 they have Ymer 2-1 @ 5.5 which I like...
        Comment
        • SirtySree
          SBR MVP
          • 12-19-13
          • 2370

          #599
          +$4409

          Mateo Martinez @2.75
          Comment
          • fitguy67
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 03-13-11
            • 5082

            #600
            Brkic straight-sets Sijsling (who's never sizzling in the first round)...good call
            Comment
            • SirtySree
              SBR MVP
              • 12-19-13
              • 2370

              #601
              ^ grats. didnt get on it as couldnt get the 2-0

              Willis @3
              Comment
              • SirtySree
                SBR MVP
                • 12-19-13
                • 2370

                #602
                Paire @3.25
                Comment
                • SirtySree
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-19-13
                  • 2370

                  #603
                  Originally posted by SirtySree
                  Willis @3
                  Finally a dam win. Hopefully that awful run has come to a end.
                  Comment
                  • SirtySree
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-19-13
                    • 2370

                    #604
                    arnaboldi @3.4
                    Comment
                    • SirtySree
                      SBR MVP
                      • 12-19-13
                      • 2370

                      #605
                      y am i getting all the fking tankers this week. didnt mention ostapenko yesterday nd nw arnaboldi. all missing break points in 1st game of a new set nd then deciding thats enough to throw in the towel and win less than a handful of points rest of the way
                      Comment
                      • Hardcoar
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-17-13
                        • 15606

                        #606
                        Well, at least you've had good luck so far overall. Variance is unavoidable. Not too much to complain about in the grand scheme of things, but certainly frustration can come to a boil when you seem incapable of winning a bet at times.
                        Comment
                        • SirtySree
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-19-13
                          • 2370

                          #607
                          ^ im not usually worried bout losing streaks as i mentioned previously this type of betting style is prone to bad streaks. reason y i got annoyed was the way they hav been losing. im fine with losses like paire above which is wat i consider a normal loss but wen i hav 3 out of my last 10 plays all lose in the same fashion of missing breaks points in the 1st game of a set and deciding thats enough to warrant a tank, that pisses me off. also at least 3 of the other losses were all players who were dominating and simply missed a bunch of breaks and their opponent converts 1/1 to win the match.

                          +$4309

                          A shame I missed out on Sonego. Loved that play but too greedy and only wanted the 2-0 sets.
                          Comment
                          • SirtySree
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-19-13
                            • 2370

                            #608
                            Some pre-game stuff if anyone wants them. Not playing any again.

                            Cachin 2-0 vs Martin - Martin could've played himself into form though after his one win last week as he won pretty easy again yesterday.
                            Krajinovic ML vs Kyrgios - Wanting to fade Nick on clay but this surface seems a tad fast so giving it a pass
                            Machado ML vs Coric
                            Comment
                            • fitguy67
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 03-13-11
                              • 5082

                              #609
                              love your pre-game leans...they're real-bullets plays for me...

                              last batch went 3-2, +1u the way i played'em (everything TO WIN a unit...and at the prices i got)
                              ____________
                              already put a splash (0.57u) on Krajino@2.75 to win a unit for my favorite charity
                              Last edited by fitguy67; 04-29-15, 12:53 PM.
                              Comment
                              • SirtySree
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-19-13
                                • 2370

                                #610
                                Ling Zhang @4 down set up 2-1 40-40
                                Comment
                                • SirtySree
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-19-13
                                  • 2370

                                  #611
                                  Originally posted by fitguy67
                                  love your pre-game leans...they're real-bullets plays for me...

                                  last batch went 3-2, +1u the way i played'em (everything TO WIN a unit...and at the prices i got)
                                  ____________
                                  already put a splash (0.57u) on Krajino@2.75 to win a unit for my favorite charity
                                  glad someone is making use of them was starting to think there was no point in posting them
                                  Comment
                                  • SirtySree
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-19-13
                                    • 2370

                                    #612
                                    Originally posted by SirtySree
                                    Ling Zhang @4 down set up 2-1 40-40
                                    and there we go again... the fk is wrong with everyone this week. nt just the matches im betting on but everyone is either tanking or losing serving for the match
                                    Comment
                                    • fitguy67
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 03-13-11
                                      • 5082

                                      #613
                                      any indication that imanishi-zhang was a "work"?

                                      start of final set, b365 was posting the weirdest lines with imanishi serving at 0-15 and a 1.67/-150 range favorite...weird considering zhang was the 1.67 fave pre-match and had momentum on her side, having just won the 2nd set convincingly...
                                      Last edited by fitguy67; 04-29-15, 11:04 PM.
                                      Comment
                                      • SirtySree
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 12-19-13
                                        • 2370

                                        #614
                                        Originally posted by fitguy67
                                        any indication that imanishi-zhang was a "work"?

                                        start of final set, b365 was posting the weirdest lines with imanishi serving at 0-15 and a 1.67/-150 range favorite...
                                        wasnt paying full attention to the odds but i think they were consistent and didnt c any weird changes

                                        zhang was up 5-1 2nd set and almost choked away the double break so started the 3rd set @2.5, whereas it was around evens when she was up the double break
                                        Comment
                                        • SirtySree
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-19-13
                                          • 2370

                                          #615
                                          Also if anyone is considering joining 10bet, dont bother. As mentioned before, they aren't a very good book. The navigation is slow and placing bets are a pain but the one thing that's making me say this again, is that they are now deciding to be a pain in the ass with my withdraws.

                                          Had a withdraw by CC not come through after over a week so I messaged them only for them to tell me my CC won't accept payments all of a sudden despite it working previously and they didn't even bother to tell me or re-add my money back into my account before I messaged them. They told me to withdraw by bank instead so I did and now it's been over 2 weeks and still no sign of my money. Been told it's being processed by the accounts department, then the management department, then wherever else.

                                          Bottom line is they suck not just with withdraws but overall. Only reason I use them is because they have all the matches bet365 has and i bet almost 80% on ITF so need those lines.
                                          Comment
                                          • gaebiskon
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 03-10-12
                                            • 869

                                            #616
                                            Originally posted by SirtySree
                                            Also if anyone is considering joining 10bet, dont bother. As mentioned before, they aren't a very good book. The navigation is slow and placing bets are a pain but the one thing that's making me say this again, is that they are now deciding to be a pain in the ass with my withdraws.

                                            Had a withdraw by CC not come through after over a week so I messaged them only for them to tell me my CC won't accept payments all of a sudden despite it working previously and they didn't even bother to tell me or re-add my money back into my account before I messaged them. They told me to withdraw by bank instead so I did and now it's been over 2 weeks and still no sign of my money. Been told it's being processed by the accounts department, then the management department, then wherever else.

                                            Bottom line is they suck not just with withdraws but overall. Only reason I use them is because they have all the matches bet365 has and i bet almost 80% on ITF so need those lines.
                                            Where are you from, SS? And when you initially joined 10bet, did they call you once a week offering reload bonus and such because that's exactly what they're doing to me right now.

                                            What is your overall opinion on 10bet? They do have a lot of matches and their in-play betting odds are better than bet 365 imo.
                                            Comment
                                            • SirtySree
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-19-13
                                              • 2370

                                              #617
                                              Originally posted by gaebiskon
                                              Where are you from, SS? And when you initially joined 10bet, did they call you once a week offering reload bonus and such because that's exactly what they're doing to me right now.

                                              What is your overall opinion on 10bet? They do have a lot of matches and their in-play betting odds are better than bet 365 imo.
                                              From down under. I didn't give them my real number so not quite sure. Pretty sure you can go to settings and change to not wanting to receive promotional emails/calls. Their in-play stuff matches bet365 90% of the time. Occassionally the odds will differ slightly and some days they just decide randomly not to have many matches available like yesterday. If I had another book giving me almost 90% of the matches available, I would move straight away. Next best alternative for me is WilliamHill but they only have maybe 50% of the matches and odds for the player down a set is usually much lower.
                                              Comment
                                              • SirtySree
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 12-19-13
                                                • 2370

                                                #618
                                                Lacko@ 3.25
                                                Comment
                                                • SirtySree
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-19-13
                                                  • 2370

                                                  #619
                                                  +$4109
                                                  Comment
                                                  • SirtySree
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-19-13
                                                    • 2370

                                                    #620
                                                    April coming to an end. Overall still a great month being equal or better than my best month despite the rough final week.

                                                    Hopefully May will be much of the same. Will probably only have a couple of picks for the remainder of the week. Hasn't been a good week for comebacks in general.

                                                    Also if anyone knows a book with all live plays like bet365, let me know. Not impressed with 10bet and looking for a change.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SirtySree
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-19-13
                                                      • 2370

                                                      #621
                                                      just had a play on schaefer i didnt post as i had to go do something straight away. guess what... lost in 3rd set up 5-2 double break. this bad run is unbelievable...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • SirtySree
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-19-13
                                                        • 2370

                                                        #622
                                                        Some leans for WTA Madrid

                                                        Bonderenko, Saez, Badosa, and Lino.

                                                        Would play Bonderenko 2-0 if I could. May play the ML of the other 3 but will wait for odds closer to game time.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • SirtySree
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-19-13
                                                          • 2370

                                                          #623
                                                          Bejtulahi @2.75
                                                          Comment
                                                          • SirtySree
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-19-13
                                                            • 2370

                                                            #624
                                                            Took Saez Larra @2.95 pre game.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • SirtySree
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-19-13
                                                              • 2370

                                                              #625
                                                              +$3909

                                                              Cya all next week. This week is just too bizarre for me to handle. Larra lost 12 games in a row after being up double break. Bejtulahi lost after dominating the 2nd set and had multiple breaks in the 3rd to get back on serve.

                                                              Not just my bets but matches like the Giraldo match pretty much sums up the week.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • beefcake
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-26-09
                                                                • 14029

                                                                #626
                                                                Good time to take a break man..Hell youre up a shit ton!!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • FR3SH like UgHH
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 04-27-10
                                                                  • 1464

                                                                  #627
                                                                  do u like GGL to beat Gasquet @ +200?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Hangoverblack
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-27-12
                                                                    • 1900

                                                                    #628
                                                                    I liked GGL, but only got 180.

                                                                    I think it's a coin flip considering their form. Head to head suggests GGL really struggles, so I think the collapsing odds are encouraging for GGL. Fatigue bothers me a bit.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • SirtySree
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-19-13
                                                                      • 2370

                                                                      #629
                                                                      Originally posted by beefcake
                                                                      Good time to take a break man..Hell youre up a shit ton!!
                                                                      Thanks, wish it was a few days earlier though. Would've save myself $1000.

                                                                      Been following despite the short break and still cant believe the amount of chokes and tanking occurring this week. De Scheeper was my favourite choke out of many yesterday, serving for the match in both the 2nd and 3rd sets to lose in tiebreaks.
                                                                      Originally posted by FR3SH like UgHH
                                                                      do u like GGL to beat Gasquet @ +200?
                                                                      Originally posted by Hangoverblack
                                                                      I liked GGL, but only got 180.

                                                                      I think it's a coin flip considering their form. Head to head suggests GGL really struggles, so I think the collapsing odds are encouraging for GGL. Fatigue bothers me a bit.
                                                                      Ended up a coin toss. Don't like betting SF or F because they are coinflips a lot of the time regardless of difference in talent level.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • SirtySree
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 12-19-13
                                                                        • 2370

                                                                        #630
                                                                        I'll be back later tomorrow most likely if I'm not too tempted by any qualifiers later today.

                                                                        Here are just some stuff I see for later today/tomorrow.

                                                                        Kravchuk vs Groth - Will possibly look to play tiebreaks if given the line by my book.

                                                                        Kohl vs Murray - Kohl always gives Murray some terrible and on clay, makes it even better.

                                                                        Ymer vs Mecir - Ymer playing another challenger. Should take care of Mecir whose form is off.

                                                                        Sonego vs Fabbiano - Sonego was impressive last tournament and could give Fabbiano some trouble.

                                                                        Rosol vs Tsonga - Rosol in pretty decent form while Tsonga hasnt coming back from injury.

                                                                        Gasquet/Karlovic vs Berdych - Berd has made a deep run in every tournament this year but I think it's time for a letdown. He struggles with both these opponents matchup wise.

                                                                        Dennis Novak finally playing a Challenger event this year. Will be interesting to see how he goes.

                                                                        Busan Challenger event starting soon. Last year no one really wanted to be here. A bunch of 1st round retirements and just the locals doing well. Look for some 1st round upsets, possibly at none void books and look to bet the locals. Some names I see before the odds are out kudry, zemlja, saville, yong kyu lim, nam, and bolt.
                                                                        Comment
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