SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[SirtySree]

Naso wins back to back finals 0-6 6-4 6-4. Just as bizarre as what happened with Tearney as I posted about last week.

[SirtySree]

So tempted to bet on Ymer as he is now @6. If there was a stream I probably would consider a live bet but since there isnt, I have to just follow the point by point so doubt I will.

Also Kavcic into another final. No clue how he got destroyed by Zhang as I talked about that a month ago. Kavcic is a ATP level caliber player.

Also Sijsling, the unofficial record holder of most 1st round defeats has now lost in the first round 7 times out of 10 tournaments this year and 9 out of his last 12 overall.

[fitguy67]

So tempted to bet on Ymer as he is now @6. If there was a stream I probably would consider a live bet but since there isnt, I have to just follow the point by point so doubt I will.

Sirty (and other hard-core tennis geeks)...what is your favorite online place for point-by-point "watching" a match, if that is the only alternative. I'm thinking of something that constantly updates useful match/set/game stats as well as simply tracking the score...so something that you'd want to have open and refer to even if you also have video.

i'm looking for a nice stats-enhanced real-time tennis scoreboard...something like what the live-betting modules at bet365 or willhill have, but considerably more comprehensive...ideally keeping a reasonably-full slate of stats, such as what is commonly displayed and discussed on tv at the end of each set of a match (#winners/#ufe's/etc.)..but having them tick along as the match unfolds point by point...

[SirtySree]

Sirty (and other hard-core tennis geeks)...what is your favorite online place for point-by-point "watching" a match, if that is the only alternative. I'm thinking of something that constantly updates useful match/set/game stats as well as simply tracking the score...so something that you'd want to have open and refer to even if you also have video.

i'm looking for a nice stats-enhanced real-time tennis scoreboard...something like what the live-betting modules at bet365 or willhill have, but considerably more comprehensive...ideally keeping a reasonably-full slate of stats, such as what is commonly displayed and discussed on tv at the end of each set of a match (#winners/#ufe's/etc.)..but having them tick along as the match unfolds point by point...

Not quite sure. I only use Bet365 if I feel like following a game but I don't really enjoy just following the point-by-point to be bothered enough to find a better alternative.

[SirtySree]

Couple of things for Monte-Carlo. Watch out for Arneodo/Balleret in the doubles. Depending on the odds, I might actually make a pre-game bet for once.

Maurer @2 vs Gulbis
- Any time Gulbis is the favourite, he should be an instant fade the way he is playing at the moment

Coric @3.25 vs Dolgo
- not the biggest fan of coric but i think on the slower surface, if he just does wat he usually does and keeps the ball in play, dolgo's error count will just keep piling up

other potential upsets i see are querrey, burgos, verdasco, and seppi

[SirtySree]

Might also start fading Stefan Kozlova, who needs to go play in the WTA. Way too overrated by the books and public. I thought his best case scenario was a fringe top 100 player but now looks like he will be lucky to crack the top 200.

[SirtySree]

Also liking Ymer again as the dog against Kudla. Last last year on hard court, Ymer lost in 3 tight sets where he got off to a bad start and should have won in straight sets if not for that. Now they are playing on clay and Ymer has improved quite a bit since then so thinking he should be a clear favourite here.

[SirtySree]

Grammatikopoulou @3.5 down 5-2 in the 1st set.

EDIT: Zzz injury timeout just as I placed the bet. Yet another injured player that I managed to bet on...

[SirtySree]

Karatsev @2 vs Martin
- fading martin is a no brainer again. terrible form right nw
- said to fade against gaio who took him out in straight sets and karatsev is better than gaio
- 2-0 sets looks good too


Didn't end up fading Fischer like I said but he just lost to Vorster in straight sets @3 in the final.

[lucasdawg]

wheres the martin match at?

[SirtySree]

wheres the martin match at?

challenger event in turkey

[SirtySree]

Hamou @3.4 2x - won 58/65 as the favourite on clay past 2 years.

[SirtySree]

Why did Ymer have to break back.. =[

Will be putting a bet down on him if he goes down a set. He hasn't made one of his trademark down a set comeback though since his ITF days so that's a bit of a concern.

[SirtySree]

Trinker @2.62 looks good as well to me pre-game against Ramanthan. Ramanthan is more of a hard court player and I like Trinker on clay. Potential upset but still not good enough for me to make a pre-game bet.

[SirtySree]

Just for fun, going to try pick the winner in every match at Monte-Carlo. Lots of upsets in the 1st round.

rosol
burgos
mayer
maurer
agut
coric
thiem
fog
verdasco
simon
monaco
querrey
mannarino
busta
kohl
johnson
seppi
klizan

[SirtySree]

Ymer's 2nd serve being destroyed. Has always been his weakness but going off stats, he had a good start to the year with it however, seems to have fallen away a bit lately.

@5.5 right now but I am going to leave it for the mean time.

[SirtySree]

Very surprised by this result with Kudla destroying Ymer. Ymer missing too many 1st serves and his 2nd serve getting taken apart so his double faults are now tallying up as well.

Ymer now looking like a better hard courter than clay courter which I semi joked about a couple weeks back with his change in playing style from what I've seen.

[SirtySree]

arneodo/balleret @4.5 against chardy/cilic. Ill b putting a pregam bet on this. nt up on 10bet yet and im almost certain odds will drop so hopefully it will b available soon

[Dmoneytx]

rosol
burgos
mayer
maurer
agut
coric
thiem
fog
verdasco
simon
monaco
querrey
mannarino
busta
kohl
johnson
seppi
klizan

I think I have lost money on ALL of those players at one point in time of my life.. LOL!!!!!! Jajajaja

[Dmoneytx]

Good luck Sirty. Wish you the best sir.

[fitguy67]

Just for fun, going to try pick the winner in every match at Monte-Carlo. Lots of upsets in the 1st round.

rosol
burgos
mayer
maurer
agut
coric
thiem
fog
verdasco
simon
monaco
querrey
mannarino
busta
kohl
johnson
seppi
klizan

hey SS, could you also pick a winner on the few remaining first-round matches

i'll be forming a few fun (lo-stake/hi-payout) all-dog round-robins based on your picks...

need you to weigh in on these 6 matches (as above, straight-up picks to win, with no attention to price)

gombos/goffin
kudla/paire
sousa/vasselin
istomin/ramos
kuznetsov/monfils
schwartzman/chardy

appreciate it

[SirtySree]

I think I have lost money on ALL of those players at one point in time of my life.. LOL!!!!!! Jajajaja

Good luck Sirty. Wish you the best sir.

Thanks, I've probably lost money on the majority as well haha.

Best of luck to you too.

hey SS, could you also pick a winner on the few remaining first-round matches

i'll be forming a few fun (lo-stake/hi-payout) all-dog round-robins based on your picks...

need you to weigh in on these 6 matches (as above, straight-up picks to win, with no attention to price)

gombos/goffin
kudla/paire
sousa/vasselin
istomin/ramos
kuznetsov/monfils
schwartzman/chardy

appreciate it

Thanks for having such confidence in my picks but I can't recommend purely following my pre-game picks as that is not my area of strength.

As for the remaining matches, I usually hate the qualifiers as they can spring a surprise or get blown off the court so it's tough to read a lot of the time.

I would pick the following though:
goffin
paire
sousa
ramos
monfils
schwartzman

[fitguy67]

just a little fun: 6 small-stake 2-leg combinations of AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD...where
A=Maurer+145
B=Johnson+180
C=Sousa+158
D=Coric+230

if less than 2 dogs come in it's zilcho...but if even the crappiest payout AC hits, i'll about break even...but if 3 or 4 of 'em hit i can have a nice little payday (as either 3 or 6 of the 6 parlays pop)...a little "day 1 raffle" for a good cause = me
_________
for day 2, i'll do a similar thing (forming 10 small-stake 2-leg combos of 5 dogs) with Verdasco, Querrey, Seppi, Klizan, and Schwartzman

[SirtySree]

just a little fun: 6 small-stake 2-leg combinations of AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD...where
A=Maurer+145
B=Johnson+180
C=Sousa+158
D=Coric+230

if less than 2 dogs come in it's zilcho...but if even the crappiest payout AC hits, i'll about break even...but if 3 or 4 of 'em hit i can have a nice little payday (as either 3 or 6 of the 6 parlays pop)...a little "day 1 raffle" for a good cause = me
_________
for day 2, i'll do a similar thing (forming 10 small-stake 2-leg combos of 5 dogs) with Verdasco, Querrey, Seppi, Klizan, and Schwartzman

Good luck! You are going to need it. I borrow Matt's dartboard when picking pre-match winners.

[SirtySree]

+$2437

[SirtySree]

Odds have shot up in the last 30mins against Maurer. Usually not a good sign when this happens but I just can't see how anyone would actually bother betting on Gulbis the way he is going at the moment. Betting on him is just hoping he turns things around out of the blue and is nothing more than a pure guess when that happens.

[SirtySree]

Screw it. Placing a pre-match bet on Maurer. 0.5 unit on ML @2.65 and 0.5 on 2-0 sets @3.75. Not the best odds going around but not depositing on another book just for a one off small bet.

Also locked in Arneodo/Balleret @4.5 earlier. Coin flip at worse.

Last pre-match bet I had was Marcora @3.25 against Fucsovics and I can't recall the next one before that as it is rare. Not often do I play pre-match anymore but the two bets above have too much value to ignore.

[SirtySree]

Looks like nothing different after just one Maurer service game. All 4 points won off 4 forehand unforced errors by Gulbis.

[SirtySree]

Three forehand errors in the 2nd game to get broken.

Gulbis's forehand is just atrocious.

[SirtySree]

Going to stop the commentary but this is hilarious. Nothing different with Gulbis, forehand still atrocious.

All 4 points in the 3rd game was forehand errors by Gulbis. 11 forehand errors after 3 games out of 14 points won by Maurer.

[DR225]

I don't get why Gulbis even shows up, I doubt he could win an ITF tournament right now.

[kenz]

Good call on Monacons

[Vinnie Paz]

I don't get why Gulbis even shows up, I doubt he could win an ITF tournament right now.

Guy needs to find a new career

[beefcake]

Guy needs to find a new career

Playing so bad Kevin Kim could beat him.

[fitguy67]

Arnedo-Balleret pre-game doubles bet hits, result of the coin-flip (but paying out at 3.5 to 1) you predicted...thanks

also 2 of the four dogs you (and Matt's dartboard) predicted for today's Monte Carlo action hit for me...tomorrow we have Klizan+100, Seppi+150, Verdasco+155 and Schwartzman+135 (Querrey being replaced by Struff versus Tsonga) so we'll try another round-robin of 6 small-stake two-leggers