SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

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  • SirtySree
    SBR MVP
    • 12-19-13
    • 2370

    #456
    Naso wins back to back finals 0-6 6-4 6-4. Just as bizarre as what happened with Tearney as I posted about last week.
    Comment
    • SirtySree
      SBR MVP
      • 12-19-13
      • 2370

      #457
      So tempted to bet on Ymer as he is now @6. If there was a stream I probably would consider a live bet but since there isnt, I have to just follow the point by point so doubt I will.

      Also Kavcic into another final. No clue how he got destroyed by Zhang as I talked about that a month ago. Kavcic is a ATP level caliber player.

      Also Sijsling, the unofficial record holder of most 1st round defeats has now lost in the first round 7 times out of 10 tournaments this year and 9 out of his last 12 overall.
      Comment
      • fitguy67
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-13-11
        • 5082

        #458
        Originally posted by SirtySree
        So tempted to bet on Ymer as he is now @6. If there was a stream I probably would consider a live bet but since there isnt, I have to just follow the point by point so doubt I will.
        Sirty (and other hard-core tennis geeks)...what is your favorite online place for point-by-point "watching" a match, if that is the only alternative. I'm thinking of something that constantly updates useful match/set/game stats as well as simply tracking the score...so something that you'd want to have open and refer to even if you also have video.

        i'm looking for a nice stats-enhanced real-time tennis scoreboard...something like what the live-betting modules at bet365 or willhill have, but considerably more comprehensive...ideally keeping a reasonably-full slate of stats, such as what is commonly displayed and discussed on tv at the end of each set of a match (#winners/#ufe's/etc.)..but having them tick along as the match unfolds point by point...
        Last edited by fitguy67; 04-11-15, 07:34 PM.
        Comment
        • SirtySree
          SBR MVP
          • 12-19-13
          • 2370

          #459
          Originally posted by fitguy67
          Sirty (and other hard-core tennis geeks)...what is your favorite online place for point-by-point "watching" a match, if that is the only alternative. I'm thinking of something that constantly updates useful match/set/game stats as well as simply tracking the score...so something that you'd want to have open and refer to even if you also have video.

          i'm looking for a nice stats-enhanced real-time tennis scoreboard...something like what the live-betting modules at bet365 or willhill have, but considerably more comprehensive...ideally keeping a reasonably-full slate of stats, such as what is commonly displayed and discussed on tv at the end of each set of a match (#winners/#ufe's/etc.)..but having them tick along as the match unfolds point by point...
          Not quite sure. I only use Bet365 if I feel like following a game but I don't really enjoy just following the point-by-point to be bothered enough to find a better alternative.
          Comment
          • SirtySree
            SBR MVP
            • 12-19-13
            • 2370

            #460
            Couple of things for Monte-Carlo. Watch out for Arneodo/Balleret in the doubles. Depending on the odds, I might actually make a pre-game bet for once.

            Maurer @2 vs Gulbis
            - Any time Gulbis is the favourite, he should be an instant fade the way he is playing at the moment

            Coric @3.25 vs Dolgo
            - not the biggest fan of coric but i think on the slower surface, if he just does wat he usually does and keeps the ball in play, dolgo's error count will just keep piling up

            other potential upsets i see are querrey, burgos, verdasco, and seppi
            Comment
            • SirtySree
              SBR MVP
              • 12-19-13
              • 2370

              #461
              Might also start fading Stefan Kozlova, who needs to go play in the WTA. Way too overrated by the books and public. I thought his best case scenario was a fringe top 100 player but now looks like he will be lucky to crack the top 200.
              Comment
              • SirtySree
                SBR MVP
                • 12-19-13
                • 2370

                #462
                Also liking Ymer again as the dog against Kudla. Last last year on hard court, Ymer lost in 3 tight sets where he got off to a bad start and should have won in straight sets if not for that. Now they are playing on clay and Ymer has improved quite a bit since then so thinking he should be a clear favourite here.
                Comment
                • SirtySree
                  SBR MVP
                  • 12-19-13
                  • 2370

                  #463
                  Grammatikopoulou @3.5 down 5-2 in the 1st set.

                  EDIT: Zzz injury timeout just as I placed the bet. Yet another injured player that I managed to bet on...
                  Comment
                  • SirtySree
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-19-13
                    • 2370

                    #464
                    Karatsev @2 vs Martin
                    - fading martin is a no brainer again. terrible form right nw
                    - said to fade against gaio who took him out in straight sets and karatsev is better than gaio
                    - 2-0 sets looks good too


                    Didn't end up fading Fischer like I said but he just lost to Vorster in straight sets @3 in the final.
                    Comment
                    • lucasdawg
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-19-13
                      • 3399

                      #465
                      wheres the martin match at?
                      Comment
                      • SirtySree
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-19-13
                        • 2370

                        #466
                        Originally posted by lucasdawg
                        wheres the martin match at?
                        challenger event in turkey
                        Comment
                        • SirtySree
                          SBR MVP
                          • 12-19-13
                          • 2370

                          #467
                          Hamou @3.4 2x - won 58/65 as the favourite on clay past 2 years.
                          Comment
                          • SirtySree
                            SBR MVP
                            • 12-19-13
                            • 2370

                            #468
                            Why did Ymer have to break back.. =[

                            Will be putting a bet down on him if he goes down a set. He hasn't made one of his trademark down a set comeback though since his ITF days so that's a bit of a concern.
                            Comment
                            • SirtySree
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-19-13
                              • 2370

                              #469
                              Trinker @2.62 looks good as well to me pre-game against Ramanthan. Ramanthan is more of a hard court player and I like Trinker on clay. Potential upset but still not good enough for me to make a pre-game bet.
                              Comment
                              • SirtySree
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-19-13
                                • 2370

                                #470
                                Just for fun, going to try pick the winner in every match at Monte-Carlo. Lots of upsets in the 1st round.

                                rosol
                                burgos
                                mayer
                                maurer
                                agut
                                coric
                                thiem
                                fog
                                verdasco
                                simon
                                monaco
                                querrey
                                mannarino
                                busta
                                kohl
                                johnson
                                seppi
                                klizan
                                Comment
                                • SirtySree
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 12-19-13
                                  • 2370

                                  #471
                                  Ymer's 2nd serve being destroyed. Has always been his weakness but going off stats, he had a good start to the year with it however, seems to have fallen away a bit lately.

                                  @5.5 right now but I am going to leave it for the mean time.
                                  Comment
                                  • SirtySree
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 12-19-13
                                    • 2370

                                    #472
                                    Very surprised by this result with Kudla destroying Ymer. Ymer missing too many 1st serves and his 2nd serve getting taken apart so his double faults are now tallying up as well.

                                    Ymer now looking like a better hard courter than clay courter which I semi joked about a couple weeks back with his change in playing style from what I've seen.
                                    Comment
                                    • SirtySree
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 12-19-13
                                      • 2370

                                      #473
                                      arneodo/balleret @4.5 against chardy/cilic. Ill b putting a pregam bet on this. nt up on 10bet yet and im almost certain odds will drop so hopefully it will b available soon
                                      Comment
                                      • Dmoneytx
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-09-12
                                        • 6450

                                        #474
                                        Originally posted by SirtySree
                                        rosol
                                        burgos
                                        mayer
                                        maurer
                                        agut
                                        coric
                                        thiem
                                        fog
                                        verdasco
                                        simon
                                        monaco
                                        querrey
                                        mannarino
                                        busta
                                        kohl
                                        johnson
                                        seppi
                                        klizan
                                        I think I have lost money on ALL of those players at one point in time of my life.. LOL!!!!!! Jajajaja
                                        Comment
                                        • Dmoneytx
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 02-09-12
                                          • 6450

                                          #475
                                          Good luck Sirty. Wish you the best sir.
                                          Comment
                                          • fitguy67
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 03-13-11
                                            • 5082

                                            #476
                                            Originally posted by SirtySree
                                            Just for fun, going to try pick the winner in every match at Monte-Carlo. Lots of upsets in the 1st round.

                                            rosol
                                            burgos
                                            mayer
                                            maurer
                                            agut
                                            coric
                                            thiem
                                            fog
                                            verdasco
                                            simon
                                            monaco
                                            querrey
                                            mannarino
                                            busta
                                            kohl
                                            johnson
                                            seppi
                                            klizan
                                            hey SS, could you also pick a winner on the few remaining first-round matches

                                            i'll be forming a few fun (lo-stake/hi-payout) all-dog round-robins based on your picks...

                                            need you to weigh in on these 6 matches (as above, straight-up picks to win, with no attention to price)

                                            gombos/goffin
                                            kudla/paire
                                            sousa/vasselin
                                            istomin/ramos
                                            kuznetsov/monfils
                                            schwartzman/chardy

                                            appreciate it
                                            Comment
                                            • SirtySree
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-19-13
                                              • 2370

                                              #477
                                              Originally posted by Dmoneytx
                                              I think I have lost money on ALL of those players at one point in time of my life.. LOL!!!!!! Jajajaja

                                              Good luck Sirty. Wish you the best sir.
                                              Thanks, I've probably lost money on the majority as well haha.

                                              Best of luck to you too.
                                              Originally posted by fitguy67
                                              hey SS, could you also pick a winner on the few remaining first-round matches

                                              i'll be forming a few fun (lo-stake/hi-payout) all-dog round-robins based on your picks...

                                              need you to weigh in on these 6 matches (as above, straight-up picks to win, with no attention to price)

                                              gombos/goffin
                                              kudla/paire
                                              sousa/vasselin
                                              istomin/ramos
                                              kuznetsov/monfils
                                              schwartzman/chardy

                                              appreciate it
                                              Thanks for having such confidence in my picks but I can't recommend purely following my pre-game picks as that is not my area of strength.

                                              As for the remaining matches, I usually hate the qualifiers as they can spring a surprise or get blown off the court so it's tough to read a lot of the time.

                                              I would pick the following though:
                                              goffin
                                              paire
                                              sousa
                                              ramos
                                              monfils
                                              schwartzman
                                              Comment
                                              • fitguy67
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 03-13-11
                                                • 5082

                                                #478
                                                just a little fun: 6 small-stake 2-leg combinations of AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD...where
                                                A=Maurer+145
                                                B=Johnson+180
                                                C=Sousa+158
                                                D=Coric+230

                                                if less than 2 dogs come in it's zilcho...but if even the crappiest payout AC hits, i'll about break even...but if 3 or 4 of 'em hit i can have a nice little payday (as either 3 or 6 of the 6 parlays pop)...a little "day 1 raffle" for a good cause = me
                                                _________
                                                for day 2, i'll do a similar thing (forming 10 small-stake 2-leg combos of 5 dogs) with Verdasco, Querrey, Seppi, Klizan, and Schwartzman
                                                Comment
                                                • SirtySree
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-19-13
                                                  • 2370

                                                  #479
                                                  Originally posted by fitguy67
                                                  just a little fun: 6 small-stake 2-leg combinations of AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD...where
                                                  A=Maurer+145
                                                  B=Johnson+180
                                                  C=Sousa+158
                                                  D=Coric+230

                                                  if less than 2 dogs come in it's zilcho...but if even the crappiest payout AC hits, i'll about break even...but if 3 or 4 of 'em hit i can have a nice little payday (as either 3 or 6 of the 6 parlays pop)...a little "day 1 raffle" for a good cause = me
                                                  _________
                                                  for day 2, i'll do a similar thing (forming 10 small-stake 2-leg combos of 5 dogs) with Verdasco, Querrey, Seppi, Klizan, and Schwartzman
                                                  Good luck! You are going to need it. I borrow Matt's dartboard when picking pre-match winners.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • SirtySree
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 12-19-13
                                                    • 2370

                                                    #480
                                                    +$2437
                                                    Comment
                                                    • SirtySree
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-19-13
                                                      • 2370

                                                      #481
                                                      Odds have shot up in the last 30mins against Maurer. Usually not a good sign when this happens but I just can't see how anyone would actually bother betting on Gulbis the way he is going at the moment. Betting on him is just hoping he turns things around out of the blue and is nothing more than a pure guess when that happens.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • SirtySree
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 12-19-13
                                                        • 2370

                                                        #482
                                                        Screw it. Placing a pre-match bet on Maurer. 0.5 unit on ML @2.65 and 0.5 on 2-0 sets @3.75. Not the best odds going around but not depositing on another book just for a one off small bet.

                                                        Also locked in Arneodo/Balleret @4.5 earlier. Coin flip at worse.

                                                        Last pre-match bet I had was Marcora @3.25 against Fucsovics and I can't recall the next one before that as it is rare. Not often do I play pre-match anymore but the two bets above have too much value to ignore.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • SirtySree
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-19-13
                                                          • 2370

                                                          #483
                                                          Looks like nothing different after just one Maurer service game. All 4 points won off 4 forehand unforced errors by Gulbis.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • SirtySree
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-19-13
                                                            • 2370

                                                            #484
                                                            Three forehand errors in the 2nd game to get broken.

                                                            Gulbis's forehand is just atrocious.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • SirtySree
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 12-19-13
                                                              • 2370

                                                              #485
                                                              Going to stop the commentary but this is hilarious. Nothing different with Gulbis, forehand still atrocious.

                                                              All 4 points in the 3rd game was forehand errors by Gulbis. 11 forehand errors after 3 games out of 14 points won by Maurer.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • DR225
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 02-24-11
                                                                • 2010

                                                                #486
                                                                I don't get why Gulbis even shows up, I doubt he could win an ITF tournament right now.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • kenz
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 12-09-12
                                                                  • 4879

                                                                  #487
                                                                  Good call on Monacons
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Vinnie Paz
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 03-27-12
                                                                    • 12177

                                                                    #488
                                                                    Originally posted by DR225
                                                                    I don't get why Gulbis even shows up, I doubt he could win an ITF tournament right now.
                                                                    Guy needs to find a new career
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • beefcake
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 11-26-09
                                                                      • 14029

                                                                      #489
                                                                      Originally posted by Vinnie Paz
                                                                      Guy needs to find a new career

                                                                      Playing so bad Kevin Kim could beat him.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • fitguy67
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 03-13-11
                                                                        • 5082

                                                                        #490
                                                                        Arnedo-Balleret pre-game doubles bet hits, result of the coin-flip (but paying out at 3.5 to 1) you predicted...thanks

                                                                        also 2 of the four dogs you (and Matt's dartboard) predicted for today's Monte Carlo action hit for me...tomorrow we have Klizan+100, Seppi+150, Verdasco+155 and Schwartzman+135 (Querrey being replaced by Struff versus Tsonga) so we'll try another round-robin of 6 small-stake two-leggers
                                                                        Comment
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