SirtySree's Rookie Player Watch + Match Analysis

[SirtySree]

Fallert @3.5 down set and 3-2 break

[SirtySree]

+$2517

Last update for today. Might have some plays in next few hours but will be off my phone if I do so will be slightly delayed.

[SirtySree]

diarra @3.5 down set and break

[SirtySree]

barrere @3.25

[Hardcoar]

You should post more pre-match bets. There's more of a point to it, IMO.

[beefcake]

Chung going to surprise at Houston.Makes semis..

[SirtySree]

+$2317

Missed out on a few gems while I was offline. =/

You should post more pre-match bets. There's more of a point to it, IMO.

I try to post them as often as I can but the fact that I don't bet them, means I only bother to have a look at pre-match stuff when I have a lot of time.

I am as bad as Matt pre-match if that is possible but difference is that I am aware of it and therefore, avoid it.

Chung going to surprise at Houston.Makes semis..

Would really surprise me if he bet Verdasco next. He has surprised me a little bit so far on the ATP tour but not overly much yet.

[SirtySree]

Stojanovic @3.5 2x

[kenz]

I faded Papamichail and took Milana Spreemo @6 in 2nd set Spreemo up a break and 40-40 on her serve 1-0

[SirtySree]

I faded Papamichail and took Milana Spreemo @6 in 2nd set Spreemo up a break and 40-40 on her serve 1-0

Good luck.

Might look at fading Fischer at some point this tournament. Playing a ITF tournament for no reason when he hasn't played one in forever. Galung did the same thing the other week and lost to a scrub.

[kenz]

Last week on Heraklion 2 ITF she won the first game easily then lost 2nd game 6-1 0-6 1-6 where she was @1.20ish pregme

This week Heraklion 3 ITF she won the first game easily, 2nd game barely won the first set so I thought I should give a try. Now 6-4 0-6 and 3rd set is beginning. She was @1.20ish pregame again

[kenz]

Guez was @3.50 after 1st

Very good price considering Guez's history on the contest + indoor record vs opponents' indoor record

I really liked this one and Guez was up a break in 3rd set but lost his serve from 30-0, hewas around @1.08. Then it was a very tight match and he lost.

But there is this thing when 2 Frenchies play I see a trend of dog wins mostly, even on ATP

[kenz]

Follow Charleston, suitable for comebacks this week, also 2nd set bets

[SirtySree]

^ yea was a few i liked there but unfortunately the time of the tournament hasnt suited my schedule last few days so wasnt online.

stojanovic down 5-0 with injury timeout but decides to come back on instead of retiring zzz

[kenz]

Wish you also noticed the trend with Papamichail - Spremo

Very nice thread and return SirtySree, keep up the good work!!

[SirtySree]

Thanks. Yea Papamichail was actually pretty good last year and this year until she got injured. Came back a month later and got double bagelled 1st match back, and hasn't been that good it seems after that.

[kenz]

Took Alina Miakheva @2.37 after first set and 15-40 in first game on 2nd. Pregame was @1.07 and opponent is really weak on paper. Might lose this, too many breaks on first set but following your method

[SirtySree]

Polkinghorne @3 x2

[SirtySree]

Took Alina Miakheva @2.37 after first set and 15-40 in first game on 2nd. Pregame was @1.07 and opponent is really weak on paper. Might lose this, too many breaks on first set but following your method

Looking good. Was hoping for it to go up higher but never happened.

[kenz]

I hate French challengers and you talked about a Nys upset but I hate the guy, Mertens is a beast on itf, should I try Mertens 1 set down 3+ odds or skip it?

[SirtySree]

^ i would personally skip

Puchkova @3.4 down set and 2-1 break.

[SirtySree]

Paquet @3.4
Krstin @4.35

[SirtySree]

+$1957

Slight bad run. Krstin and Stojanovic both supposedly injured, while Paquet and Polkinghorne both up 4-2 and lose 6-4.Guess it evens out as I had some fortunate wins earlier on.

[SirtySree]

Ti Chen @3 2x

[SirtySree]

Kudermetova @3.5

[SirtySree]

Nedunchezhiyan @3.4 down set and 1-0 break

[SirtySree]

Neuwirth @4 down set 1-0 break

[SirtySree]

+$2057

Very quiet week. Very few comebacks this week with a lot of favourites winning the 1st set or failing to comeback. Probably won't be much action for the rest of the week either with semi's and finals after today.

[SirtySree]

Marcora @2.75 vs Istomin<br>- istomin's form is still as bad as ever<br>- istomin is bad on slow clay courts and monte-carlo is up there for slowest clay court<br>- istomin loses in the 1st round here every yr<br>- would take the 2-0 for better odds if wanting to play this<br><br>Ymer @3.5 against Berlocq<br>- i think this is a coin flip <br>- ymer has been working on his shot in practice<br>- new coach and training hard in barcelona, will b interesting to see how ymer goes<br>

[Honeybadger44]

Interesting selections. I had my eye on both of these as well.

Istomin is bad atm. There is no doubt about it. But does Marcora represent value at these odds? I watched him couple of times. Poor man's Chardy imho. Big serve, big forhend, no backhand, inconsistant... He also might preffer courts on the faster side, considering he likes to go for that forehand...

I love Ymer as a player. He is going to be really good. I would really love to see him playing anybody else except Berlocq in these qualies. On these slow courts, Carlos can be a very tough matchup for anybody. But yeah, odds are tempting. GL!

[kenz]

Istomin loses in first rounds every year to Goffin, Wawrinka, Tomic, Gasquet, cant blame him

[kenz]

Marcora @2.75 vs Istomin<br>- istomin's form is still as bad as ever<br>- istomin is bad on slow clay courts and monte-carlo is up there for slowest clay court<br>- istomin loses in the 1st round here every yr<br>- would take the 2-0 for better odds if wanting to play this<br><br>Ymer @3.5 against Berlocq<br>- i think this is a coin flip <br>- ymer has been working on his shot in practice<br>- new coach and training hard in barcelona, will b interesting to see how ymer goes<br>

[SirtySree]

I love Ymer as a player. He is going to be really good. I would really love to see him playing anybody else except Berlocq in these qualies. On these slow courts, Carlos can be a very tough matchup for anybody. But yeah, odds are tempting. GL!

Definitely agree with this. Even though the slow clay will suit Ymer, it will also suit Berlocq and at the moment, Berlocq is the better player. Ymer hasn't been that good in the limited number of matches he has had on clay court this year so it will be interesting to see how he does.

Istomin loses in first rounds every year to Goffin, Wawrinka, Tomic, Gasquet, cant blame him

Istomin dominating Marcora at the moment. Your right with those losses being against good players but reason I like Marcora was more than just Istomin's bad history here. As mentioned, Istomin's form in the past maybe 6 months has been poor and on slow clay courts, he has never been that good, not just at Monte Carlo. On other slow courts like Bastad, Bucharest, and Casablanco, he has rarely won on any of those just to name a few of the slow clay courts.

[kenz]

Definitely agree with this. Even though the slow clay will suit Ymer, it will also suit Berlocq and at the moment, Berlocq is the better player. Ymer hasn't been that good in the limited number of matches he has had on clay court this year so it will be interesting to see how he does.

Istomin dominating Marcora at the moment. Your right with those losses being against good players but reason I like Marcora was more than just Istomin's bad history here. As mentioned, Istomin's form in the past maybe 6 months has been poor and on slow clay courts, he has never been that good, not just at Monte Carlo. On other slow courts like Bastad, Bucharest, and Casablanco, he has rarely won on any of those just to name a few of the slow clay courts.

I know but he is still an ATP level guy

[SirtySree]

I know but he is still an ATP level guy

Yea I definitely read that one all wrong. Marcora won 1 game haha.